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Tva investor presentation

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Investment Idea 10-NOV-2013
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Page 1: Tva investor presentation

Investment Idea 10-NOV-2013

Page 2: Tva investor presentation

This presentation includes forward looking statements. We have based these forward looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting the financial condition of the business. Forward looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such performance or results will be achieved. Forward looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management’s belief as of that time with respect to future events, and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding the Company’s intentions and expectations regarding the delivery schedule of the aircraft on order and announced new service routes and customer savings programs. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to: the competitive environment in our industry; our ability to keep costs low; changes in our fuel cost; the impact of worldwide economic conditions, including the impact of the economic recession on customer travel behavior; actual or threatened terrorist attacks and global instability; to generate non ticket revenues; restriction on third party membership programs; external conditions, including air traffic congestion, weather and outbreak of disease; air travel substitutes; labor disputes, employee strikes and other labor related disruptions including in connection with our current negotiations with the union representing our flight attendants; ability to attract and retain qualified personnel; loss of key personnel; aircraft related fixed obligations; dependence on cash balances and operating cash flows; ability to hedge fuel requirements; our aircraft utilization rate; maintenance costs; our reliance on automated systems and the risks associated with changes made to those systems; use of personal data; lack of marketing alliances; government regulation; our ability to fulfill growth strategy; operational disruptions; our indebtedness and similar obligations; our liquidity; the concentration of our revenue from Cape Verde; our reliance on third party vendors and partners; single fuel provider; an aircraft accident or incident; our aircraft and engine suppliers; changes in the Regional markets; insurance costs; environmental regulations; and other risk factors. In addition, in this presentation, the words “believe,” “may,” “estimate,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “predict,” “potential” and similar expressions, as they relate to our company, our business and our management, are intended to identify forward looking statements. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the Forward looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation may not occur and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated or implied in the forward looking statements. All forward looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements set forth or referred to above. Forward looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. You should not put undue reliance on any forward looking statements. We assume no obligation to update forward looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward looking information, except to the extent required by applicable law. If we update one or more forward looking statements, no inference should be drawn that we will make additional updates with respect to those or other forward looking statements.

Disclaimer

Page 3: Tva investor presentation

OUR PLAN

Page 4: Tva investor presentation

Our Plan

Create A Valuable Network

Simplify the Business Model

Deliver Operational Excellence

Be Flexible & Agile

Carrier of Choice For Cape Verdeans

Maintain Cost Leadership

Page 5: Tva investor presentation

Projections…..

0.00�

6.97�

14.44�15.65� 15.65�

2013� 2014� 2015� 2016� 2017�

Revenue Growth ($Mil) �

(0.33) �

(1.36) �

4.39 �

5.58 � 5.60 �

2013� 2014� 2015� 2016� 2017�

EBITDAR�

0.0%�

-19.5% �

30.4%�35.6%� 35.8%�

2013� 2014� 2015� 2016� 2017�

EBITDAR Margin�

0.0%�

-53.0% �

11.9%�18.6% � 19.0%�

2013� 2014� 2015� 2016� 2017�

Operating Margin �

Page 6: Tva investor presentation

Santiago

Phase 1 – Domestic Network

RAI

BVC

SID

SFL

VXE

Sao Vicente

Sao Filipe Brava

Sao Nicolau

Sal

Boa Vista

Porto Novo

Maio

MMO

SNE

Page 7: Tva investor presentation

Phase 2 – Regional Network……..

Mauritania

Senegal Mali

Gambia Bissau

Guinea

Sierra Leone

Liberia

Côte d’Ivoire

Burkina Faso

Ghana Togo

Benin Nigeria

Niger

Equatorial

DKR

BJL

OXB

FNA

ROB

CKY

Page 8: Tva investor presentation

Our Offer……

1.0

6.0

5.0 12.0

Pre-Op Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

Investor 70%

Management 30%

(US$

Mill

ions

)

Investment Requirement Equity Split

Page 9: Tva investor presentation

Use Of Funds.

1.0

6.0

5.0 12.0

Pre-Op Phase 1 Phase 2 Total

1.  Obtain AOC 2.  Hire management

team, 3.  Earnest negotiations

with aircraft lessors 4.  Basic Infrastructure

Setup

1.  Working Capital 2.  Infrastructure Build-

out 3.  Domestic Operations

Subject to Performance 1.  Regional Expansion

Page 10: Tva investor presentation

Investor Clawback Option

70%

Management

If Management Does Not Meet 80% of Performance Criteria

50% Clawback

Investor

30%

80%

20%

Page 11: Tva investor presentation

Proposed Investment Structure

TransVerde Group (15%)

Strategic Investors

Vimana Holdings

(15%)

Page 12: Tva investor presentation

OUR PRODUCT

Page 13: Tva investor presentation

•  Cruise speed - 300 kts •  50 Passengers •  Fast climb •  Exceptional takeoff and

single engine performance maintained even in hot and high conditions

•  Excellent short-field performance

ATR-42-500

Page 14: Tva investor presentation

Seating Configuration

Page 15: Tva investor presentation

Cabin Layout

Page 16: Tva investor presentation

Range Chart

Mauritania

Senegal Mali

Gambia Bissau

Guinea

Sierra Leone

Liberia

Côte d’Ivoire

Burkina Faso

Ghana Togo

Benin Nigeria

Niger

Equatorial

DKR

BJL

OXB

FNA

ROB

CKY

1.5 Hrs

2.5 Hrs

Page 17: Tva investor presentation

Range vs. Payload

EMB-120 Do-328

Saab-340

BAe-ATP

Dash8-300

F-27 F-50

Saab-2000

Q400

ATR-42

ATR-72

Page 18: Tva investor presentation

Aircraft Characteristics

Max. Passengers

30 50 70

ATR-42

Dash-300

Do-328

Fokker F-27

ATR-72

Bae-ATP

Fokker-50

Dash Q400

Saab-2000

500 1,500 2,500 200 700 1,200 0 25,000 250 750

Range (Km)

Fuel Burn (Kg/Hour)

MTOW (Kg)

Cruise Speed (Km/Hr)

Page 19: Tva investor presentation

OUR CUSTOMERS

Page 20: Tva investor presentation

Population Distribution.

274

76

44

37

26

13

9

7

6

Santiago (RAI)

Sao Vicente (VXE)

Santo Antão

Fogo (SFL)

Sal (SID)

Sao Nicolau (SNE)

Boa Vista (BVC)

Maio (MMO)

Brava

Port Airport Praia Praia

Porto Grande São Pedro

Porto Novo N/A

Vale dos Cavaleiros São Filipe

Palmeira Espargos

Tarrafal Preguiça

Sal Rei Rabil

Porto Inglês Vila do Maio

Furna N/A

( 000

’s)

Page 21: Tva investor presentation

Cape Verde 2012 Airport Ranking.

137,874

98,821

84,178

37,194

33,570

13,218

8,063

Praia (RAI)

Sal (SID)

Sao Vicente (VXE)

Fogo (SFL)

Boa Vista (BVC)

Sao Nicolau (SNE)

Maio (MMO)

Domestic Passengers

Page 22: Tva investor presentation

Source: Cape Verde CAA

732.2 752.2

776.0

853.2 877.4

825.8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The Cape Verde Domestic Market Is Growing….. (D

omes

tic P

ax in

000

’s)

Page 23: Tva investor presentation

Source: Cape Verde CAA

621.8

685.5 667.7

747.2

903.9

1,020.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The International Market Is Growing Too. (In

tern

atio

nal P

ax in

000

’s)

Page 24: Tva investor presentation

43.5

74.4

2008 2012

SFL

247.4 197.6

2008 2012

SID

20.4 26.4

2008 2012

SNE

47.2 67.1

2008 2012

BVC

164.6

168.4

2008 2012

VXE

Santiago

Domestic Growth Is Exceptional……..

Sao Vicente

Sao Filipe Brava

Sao Nicolau

Sal

Boa Vista

Porto Novo

Maio

220.6 275.7

2008 2012

RAI 25%

8.6

16.1

2008 2012

MMO

71%

88%

42%

2%

29%

20%

Page 25: Tva investor presentation

Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook

6.52

10.14

8.65

6.20

5.05 5.14

7.26 7.53

2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2013 2015 2017

(GD

P G

row

th %

)

CAGR = 9%

Driven By High Economic Growth Rates.

Page 26: Tva investor presentation

Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook

0.49 0.54

0.97

1.66 1.87

1.96

2.26

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2015

(US$

Bill

ion)

98% 102%

GDP Is Expected To Double At A Faster Pace…..

Page 27: Tva investor presentation

Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook

1,245.28 1,221.68

2,035.82

3,242.19 3,544.44 3,675.93

4,113.75

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2015

(US$

Per

Cap

ita)

63% 102%

Significantly Increasing Income Per Capita.

Page 28: Tva investor presentation

0.0

98.8

183.2 197.7 197.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Projected TVA Pax Figures Are Conservative…. (T

VA D

omes

tic P

ax in

000

’s) •  Represents ~35% of Total Market

•  Excludes International Transits/Tourists •  Load Factor Increases from 30% in 2014

to 62% in 2017

Page 29: Tva investor presentation

413.7

465.6 479.6

494.0 508.8

519.0 529.4

2010 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Based On Conservative Market Growth Rates…. ( D

omes

tic P

ax in

000

’s)

CAGR = 3%

Baseline Stimulated

Page 30: Tva investor presentation

Source: Cape Verde CAA

16.91 17.10

22.39 21.78

14.26 14.88

Domestic Travel Peaks During Summer…... (D

omes

tic P

ax in

000

’s)

SID

RAI

VXE

Page 31: Tva investor presentation

Source: Cape Verde CAA

42.18 41.17

18.79 20.97

32.73 33.16

International Travel Peaks During The Winter. (In

tern

atio

nal P

ax in

000

’s)

Allowing TVA To Enter Into Marketing Arrangements With International Carriers.

RAI

SID

BVC

Page 32: Tva investor presentation

Tourism Provides Additional Opportunities….

90.5

66.6

65.7

60.5

56.4

42.6

40.7

24.2

13.8

6.0

3.7

2.8

1.8

GBR

FRA

POR

GER

ITA

CVE

OTH

NED

ESP

SWE

USA

ZAR

AUT

Average Stay 8.5

4.4

4.8

7.1

6.6

2.4

3.6

7.2

4.0

5.0

3.2

4.1

6.2

Arrivals (000s)

Source: Cape Verde Tourism Organization

Page 33: Tva investor presentation

For Partnerships With Hotels etc.

83.2%

61.2%

24.8%

18.8%

24.4%

16.0%

17.8%

23.5%

7.8%

Distribution By Island Average Occupancy Rates

38.9%

35.4%

12.6%

6.2%

3.9%

2.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.0%

Bao Vista

Sal

Santiago

São Vicente

Santo Antão

Fogo

São Nicolau

Maio

Brava

Source: Cape Verde Tourism Organization

Page 34: Tva investor presentation

Santiago

Passenger Flows…….

RAI

BVC

SID

SFL

VXE

Sao Vicente

Fogo Brava

Sao Nicolau

Sal

Boa Vista

Sao Antao

Maio

50-75 25-49

>100 76 – 100

PDEW

20-25

Page 35: Tva investor presentation

Demand Distribution 2012

VXE SNE SID BVC MMO RAI SFL Total VXE 0 9,228 52,957 15,403 134 86,884 3,749 168,355 SNE 11,030 0 10,131 496 0 4,449 330 26,436 SID 62,947 10,288 0 18,791 897 100,943 3,776 197,642 BVC 18,911 514 18,182 0 415 28,166 952 67,139 MMO 150 0 830 377 0 14,769 0 16,125 RAI 94,384 4,207 92,719 26,903 14,920 0 42,613 275,747 SFL 6,104 396 4,414 2,042 0 61,432 0 74,388 Total 193,525 24,632 179,233 64,012 16,366 296,643 51,420 825,832

Source: World Bank: Republic of Cape Verde, Inter-Island Transport Study, 2011

Page 36: Tva investor presentation

Santiago

Aircraft Schedule…….

RAI

BVC

SID

SFL

VXE

Sao Vicente

Fogo Brava

Sao Nicolau

Sal

Boa Vista

Sao Antao

Maio

Aircraft #1 Aircraft #2

AM/PM Rotation

Midday Rotation

Midday Rotation

Page 37: Tva investor presentation

PRICING

Page 38: Tva investor presentation

Price Is Always A Factor…….

24.3%

15.1%

13.5%

10.9%

8.8%

6.3%

5.1%

5.1%

4.8%

4.5%

1.4%

Better Prices

Comfort/Clean

Speed

Punctuality

Security

Facilities

Frequency

Baggage

Others

Service Quality

No Alternative

However, We Will Compete On Other Factors. Source: World Bank: Republic of Cape Verde, Inter-Island Transport Study, 2011

Page 39: Tva investor presentation

Reason for Choice…….

25.1%

20.7%

17.6%

16.7%

6.2%

5.7%

4.2%

2.2%

1.7%

No Alternative

Quicker

Comfort

Cheaper

Baggage

Timing

Security

Others

Take Car

Travelers Want A Choice. Source: World Bank: Republic of Cape Verde, Inter-Island Transport Study, 2011

Page 40: Tva investor presentation

TACV Y/N Fare vs. TVA 0-3 Day Fare

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

( Far

e U

S$)

RAI-SFL

RAI-BVC SID-SNE

RAI-SID

SID-BVC SNE-VXE

RAI-MMO

RAI-SNE

SID-VXE VXE-SFL, SFL-BVC

VXE-BVC

RAI-VXE

TACV

TVA

Page 41: Tva investor presentation

TACV T/L Fare vs. TVA 7 Day Fare

25

35

45

55

65

75

( Far

e U

S$)

RAI-SFL

RAI-BVC SID-SNE

RAI-SID

SID-BVC SNE-VXE

RAI-MMO

RAI-SNE

SID-VXE VXE-SFL, SFL-BVC

VXE-BVC

RAI-VXE

TACV

TVA

Page 42: Tva investor presentation

TACV V Fare vs. TVA 14 Day Fare

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

( Far

e U

S$)

RAI-SFL

RAI-BVC SID-SNE

RAI-SID

SID-BVC SNE-VXE

RAI-MMO

RAI-SNE

SID-VXE VXE-SFL, SFL-BVC

VXE-BVC

RAI-VXE

TACV

TVA

Page 43: Tva investor presentation

Since We Will Maintain A Fare Differential

64.94 69.27

73.60 77.93

82.26 86.59

90.92 95.25

99.58 103.91

108.24

54.99 58.30

61.60 64.91

68.22 71.53

74.84 78.15

81.45 84.76

88.07

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

(Ave

rage

Far

e U

S$)

Distance

Halcyonair

TVA

23%

18%

Page 44: Tva investor presentation

48.1%

16.5%

4.1%

11.9%

14.0%

2.7%

2.7%

Yearly

2x /Year

3x /Year

Monthly

1-3x /Month

1-2x /Week

3x /Week

68.7%

11.9%

14.0%

2.7%

2.7%

Yearly

Monthly

1-3x /Month

1-2x /Week

3x /Week

Current After TVA Entry

Propensity For Domestic Travel……

Source: World Bank: Republic of Cape Verde, Inter-Island Transport Study, 2011

Page 45: Tva investor presentation

Reasons For Travel…….

40.0%

19.0%

15.0%

10.0%

16.0%

Family & Friends

Work

Health

Trading

Other

We Will Give Them Incentives To Travel. Source: World Bank: Republic of Cape Verde, Inter-Island Transport Study, 2011

Page 46: Tva investor presentation

OUR COMPETITION

Page 47: Tva investor presentation

Our Competition Is Not Too Hot…….

TACV Technically Bankrupt World Bank Report, 2011

Page 48: Tva investor presentation

And The Problems Keep Mounting…….

Creating Significant Opportunities For Us.

Page 49: Tva investor presentation

Critical Success Factors For Any Airline…….

Frequency

Network

Comfort

FFP

Brand Name

Clean

Reliable

Safe

Basic/Minimum

Requirements

Build Market Share

High Yield Traffic

Service Execution

Page 50: Tva investor presentation

•  Competition Performing Poorly –  Halcyon Has Suspended

Operations

•  We Just Need To Stick To The Basics –  Deliver Operational

Excellence –  Maintain Cost Leadership

Assessment Of The Competition.

TACV Halcyonair Reliability 0 0

Service 0 0

Price 0 1

Schedule 0 0

On-Time 0 0

Comfort 2 2

Network 4 0

Good Poor

Page 51: Tva investor presentation

WE CAN RUN FASTER. We Just Need To Be Better Than Our Competition

Page 52: Tva investor presentation

THANK YOU


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