ESSENCE OF DECISIONExplaining the Cuban Missile Crisis
Second Edition
Graham AllisonHarvard University
Philip ZelikowUniversity of Virginia
EI t.NGMANAn imprint of Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Allison, Graham T'Essence of decision: explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis / Graham
i. aliro.r, Philip D' Zelikow' - 2nd ed'
p. cm'Includes index'ISBN 0-321-01349-21. Cuban Missile Crisis' 1962' I' Zelikow' Philip' 1954- '
Preface viiIntroduction 1
1 Model I: The Rational 'A Rigorous Model "f -uA Rational Actor Para:The Classical Nlodei ll-r:
Classical Re'l':-'*-International lrls:'andRational Ck^:
Variants and Uses t'l -
2 The Cuban Missile C'r
WhY Did the Soriet L:Cuba? 78
HYPothesis 1: CuLiYPothesis 3: \[;Trade, or Tra!'
Vftv Did the Unite'l :
Alternatit'e i: DPressures' '\l:r*Alternatit't 4: I"Alternatite 6: fr
WhY Did the Soriet I
3 Model II: Organirs'lOrsanizational l-leOr[anizationa] Lt-ra
Int*eractive ComPllelNASA: Hero and [*Organizational tseh
II. Title.E841.A44 1999o77 9)7-dc2l
98-36413CIP
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ISBN 0-321-01349-2
23 4567 89 \O-DOC-O 1 0099
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