Twitter Is Wall Street's Crystal Ball

Wall Street Topiclundi 2 mai 2011

1: Introduction

2: Market Mood

3: @NASDAQ

4: Derwent Capital

1: Introduction

2: Market Mood

3: @NASDAQ

4: Derwent Capital

1: Introduction

2: Market Mood

3: @NASDAQ

4: Derwent Capital

lundi 2 mai 2011

1: Introduction

lundi 2 mai 2011

1: Introduction

Search engine: Yahoo Finance

- Extract of article Author: Will Duff Gordon is an Editor of Data Explorers

Company: Analyst firm digging in to stock market trends

- Business Case Study

Interviewed:

Paul Hawtin: Founder - Managing Director of Derwent Capital Markets

Company:

Investment Boutique specialized in trading financial derivatives

lundi 2 mai 2011

17 %

17 %

17 %

17 %

17 %

17 %

2: Market Mood

TensionDepressionAngerVigorFatigueConfusion

lundi 2 mai 2011

Proc. of the Alife XII Conference, Odense, Denmark, 2010 668

Olympic games,Beijing, China

Fed cutsrates

20

Madoff case

CCI: record low

ThanksgivingThailand: protests

DIJA: -700 Recession

US votesObamaelected

Iceland: Major financial and banking crisis

DIJA: below 10,000

1st debateNewman

dies

WTI at $120

1

LehmanBrothersbankruptcy

McCain/Palin

DNC

Spanair flight crash

Phelps: 8 Golds

August

8 17 20 24 28 1 4 15 22 26 6 9

September October November December

4 21 2527 1 11 16

RNC

201

August

8 17 20 24 28 1 4 15 22 26 6 9

September October November December

4 21 2527 1 11 16

201

August

8 17 20 24 28 1 4 15 22 26 6 9

September October November December

4 21 2527 1 11 16

Figure 1: Twitter mood timeseries for 6 mood dimensions measured by extended Profile of Mood States test from August 1 toDecember 20, 2009. Major events marked in timeline above.

1

August

8 17 20 24 28 1 4 15 22 26 6

September October November December

41

August

8 17 20 24 28 1 4 15 22 26 6

September October November December

4

2: MarketMood

lundi 2 mai 2011

3: @NASDAQ

Researchers: Bloomington’s IT School (IN)

Subject: Correlation between DJIA and Public sentiment

Statement:

- Analyse 10M tweets during 10 months with 2.7M users

- 1st Tool: Select positive and negative tweets

- 2nd Tool: GPOMS (Google-Profile of Mood States) measuring the mood of tweets in 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Vital, Happy, ...)

Results:

Bollen said "What we found was an accuracy of 87.6 percent in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

lundi 2 mai 2011

Texte

3: @NASDAQ

lundi 2 mai 2011

4: Derwent Capital Markets Ltd

Trading Model: - Algorithms based on the data extracted from Twitter

- FTSE 100 (100 most hightly capitalised UK companies)

- FTSE 250 (large companies included in London Stock Echange)

- DJIA

Results:- A fall in “calm” words is followed by a fall in the index- Expectations: 15 to 20 % ROI- 66% of online Americans now use social- networking websites

lundi 2 mai 2011

Thanks for Attention

Wall Street Topiclundi 2 mai 2011