U. S. Drought 2012+WorldU. S. Drought 2012+World

Allen Motew Director QT Weather QT Information Systems,

Inc. Chicago Board of Trade 312-896-

2072 amotew@qtinfo.com

WeatherWeather

From the ground, it looks like this…

From Space It Looks Like This

To A Meteorologist It Looks Like This

H

Too Little Rain, Too Much Early Heat June 6-July 6

For history it will register as this

Last Year it looked like this…

Corn Yields ended at this… 147.2 -3.6%

How did we end up with droughts over the past two

years?(w/o mentioning global warming?)

Blame It On La Nina?

What Is “La Nina” ?

La Nina “effects” past 2 years

Water Temps Cool During La Nina(now warming!)

Presto…The Weather Changes

(not!)

A COSTLY FOOLER…early planting of big acreage

(USDA said 164 bu./acre…now ?)May 5, 2012

Past Year

LA NINA

EL NINO

ENSO Conditions past 60 years

El Nino Normally Brings This!(summer tropical moisture into mix)

Monsoonal Moisture Enters West

Moisture “Movement” Improves

Lingering La Nina Brought This

Both neutral ENSO Summers came off La Nina winters. Both ended with summer

drought, but shifted location

Vegetation Year Over Year

When “Realized”It’s was Up, Up and Away with futures!

How Do We Mend Things…need a lot of rain

VEG HEALTH-O.K For Some

North America-Veg Health

“The Outlook”

El Nino Effects Finally “Kick In” ?

Changes Are Slow

“HELLO, EL NINO, HELLO ENHANCED MONSOON?”

(GOOD U.S./BAD INDIA)

August Precipitation (DRY)

August Temperatures (HOT)

Sept Soil Moisture (mm)

Next 16 days

EL NINO FALL/WINTER

Nov and Dec Temp Forecast

NOV- DEC PRECIP

JAN-FEB-MAR PRECIP

JAN-FEB-MAR (TEMP)

International Outlook

El Nino Effects Globally

GLOBAL VEGETATION(Week Ago)

Eyes On South America

SEPT-OCT-NOV

PRECIP

OCT-NOV-DEC

PRECIP

TEMPS

NOV-DEC-JAN

PRECIPPRECIP

TEMPS

AustraliaAUG-SEPT-OCT

PRECIP

OCT-NOV-DEC

PRECIP

INDIA MONSOONAUG-SEP-OCT

INDIA MONSOONOCT-NOV-DEC

Europe

Asia-Veg Health

RUSSIA-VEG HEALTH

UKRAINE-VEG HEALTH

Kazakhstan-Veg Health

FRANCE

GERMANY

POLAND

IT’S RELATIVECompare…INDIA-VEG HEALTH

CHINA-VEG HEALTH

BRAZIL

Summer (A-S-O)

Temperatures

In Summary

Rains: have been increasing in North, East and South. Monsoon to help?Drought Heat through August per CFSv2INTERNATIONAL…Monsoon lagging in India. Trouble in Australia, Indonesia, Ukraine/KazhkstanGlobe Hot next 3 months per IRI El Nino rains in South America, South U.S., Ohio Valley winter dry?

Thank you for listening!Thank you for listening!

HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUMMER!HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUMMER!

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