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Unmanned Aerial Systems at a Crossroads
What Does the Future Hold?
21 January 2015
Steve Schmidt
Major General (Retired)United States Air Force
Crossroads
Drivers for change
High demand UAS / ISR, always want moreBest framework . . . Smart Defense
What next?2 of 19Photo: US DOD/01/01/10
Drivers for Change
• Increasing threat verses financial realityExquisite, expensive, very capable military systems are not sustainable or geared for the greatest or nearest threat
• Insatiable demand and limited UAS / ISR availability• Integration of NATO AGS
Maintaining the status quo is not an option
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Photo NATO AGS
Economic Crisis and Shortfalls
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“Through our operations, including Libya and Afghanistan, we have identified the areas where our capabilities do not go far enough or too few countries have them.”
“Work has been ongoing, but the economic crisis has not made it any easier.”
“So we need to take a long hard look at the most effective way to work together to close those gaps.”
“Libya revealed shortfalls in precision-guided munitions; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets …”
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, February 2014
Insatiable Demand
“It’s at the breaking point . . . has been for a long time. What’s different now is that the band-aid fixes are no longer working.”
Photo Alamy/Majumdar/Daily Beast/01/04/15
5 of 19A Senior US Air Force Official, January 2015
Very reluctant to export airborne surveillance or unmanned aircraft … even to close allies
Exports
Cannot sell an “armed Reaper” even to countries purchasing the Joint Strike Fighter
PGMs to Arab partners but not surveillance/UAS aircraft
6 of 19Photo: General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper http://www.ga-asi.com/
Technology Today“Pillars of Creation”
Bigger and sharper Hubble telescope photo of the Eagle Nebula's “Pillars of Creation” next to the original 1995 Hubble picture in this NASA image released January 6, 2015
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Photo: NASA
Smart Defense“I know that in an age of austerity, we cannot spend more. But neither should we spend less. So the answer is to spend better…. This means we must prioritise, we must specialise, and we must seek multinational solutions through cooperation.”
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, September 30, 2011
Smart Defense • Best use of NATO resources• Model for future modernization and acquisition
Specialization: Nations identifying particular sets of capabilities, through a
process of consultation to accept some degree of
reliance on the Alliance as a whole to maintain as full a
spectrum as possible
Prioritization: Investments in line with the strategic decisions taken at Lisbon, while better aligning
collective and national priorities
Cooperation: Acquiring, pooling,
sharing, and maintaining together the capabilities and skills that we cannot
afford to do alone
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“The future of combat aerospace in Europe”• Britain and France begin a 2-year joint
military UAS feasibility project
Smarter Defense “Cooperation”
Atlante commercial UAV for pipeline, natural disaster & railway surveillance• Airbus applied for civil certification
of Atlante to the European Aviation Safety Agency
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Model of surveillance drone by Dassault Aviation & BAE Systems at 2011 Paris Air Show (AFP Photo/Pierre Verdy)
Photo Courtesy of Airbus Defence and Space
Extended Range Reapers
“USAF to convert more of its 104 MQ-9 Reaper UAVs to extended range configuration, in addition to the 38 already indicated”
• MQ-9 endurance is about 32 hours (clean)• ER-upgraded vehicle is understood to be > 40 hours
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Photo: US Air Force
CAS aircraft
BCD
BN TACP
ASOC
BDE TACP
FIRES BN FDC
DIV FSE
JFO/PLT FO
CORP FSE
BTRY FDC
CAOC
UAS
AH
CoalitionBN FSE
JTAC
Coalition
NATO AWACS NATO AGS
Multi-National SolutionsAWACS is not just a radar and radio platform
Platform Network Services Apps11 of 19
NAEW&CF
EMPIRE CHALLENGE 2010
UAS + AWACS• NATO AWACS demo in USA Aug 10• Controlled ScanEagle UAV & Sensor• First AWACS Battle Management Effects
Compressed F2T2EA cycle . . . to
minutes
F 2 T 2 E ACompressed
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“I would challenge us to do it in single-digit minutes” . . . CSAF foreseeing the need to compress the kill chain in 1999
Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
EMPIRE CHALLENGEUAS + AWACS
Fix/cross-cueing
Target Track Using FMV
Positive Identification
Collateral Damage Estimate
Engage
Battle Damage Assessment
“Target Talk-on”
“DynamicTargeting”
13 of 19Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
BOLD QUEST 2011JTAC Digital CAS + AWACS
• Digital Close Air Support• Near Real-time ISR data• CAS data transferred from
JTAC to operators digitally
JTACs flew as AWACS aircrew
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Compressing the Kill-Chain - Interconnectedness of key players navigating UCAVs perpetuates a new dimension of time-space compression. (Photo by Oppenheimer, Military Technology, 28/08/13)
Photo NAEW&CF
Photo NAEW&CF
ARCTIC TIGER 2012JTAC Digital CAS + AWACS
JTAC using FACNAV tool on E-3A engaged “bombs on coordinates” by Dutch and Norwegian F-16sTested • Next Gen Chat Rack• ISR exploitation tool• FACNAV tool for Digital CAS
Target 1Target 2
Chat
JTAC on AWACS to Tactical Operations Center
FriendlyConvoy
FACNAV screen on E-3A
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Photo NAEW&CF
NAEW&CF
UNIFIED VISION 2012 & 2014
Joint ISR Specialization • Stratus Rising ISR Capability Tested
-- SNIPER targeting pod on E-3A - Full Motion Video • Cooperative Electronic Support Measures Tested
-- Near real-time, multi-platform ESM data collaboration• UV14 – 18 nation fused ISR with Multi-Intelligence All-
Source Joint ISR Interoperability Coalition 2 (MAJIIC2) -- Developing NATO’s Joint ISR Initial Oper Capability by end 2016
SNIPER TARGETING POD
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Photo NAEW&CF
• €1B contract signed at NATO Summit in Chicago -- 5 RQ-4Bs multi-platform radar technology insertion program (MP-RTIP) and ground moving target indicator (GMTI)
• Common funded, NATO owned and operated, shared AGS capability
• Primary contributor to NATO’s Joint Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance (JISR) capability
Alliance Ground Surveillance
“Gamechanger”
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Photo NATO AGS NATO AGS
Evolution Needed
• Multinational solutions through cooperation • Move from Platform to Network-based• Everything a SENSOR• Need to Share • Network Security• Push to Tablets and Handheld Devices
Photo: Fg Off Owen Cheverton/MOD
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ACTA NON VERBA
19 of 19Photo NAEW&CF