UAS Industry Growth: Forecasting Impact on Regional Infrastructure,

Environment, and Economy

Corey Snipes - Mosaic ATM, Inc.Rocky Mountain UAS Professionals Meetup

October 26, 2016

UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Safety Flight Risk Analysis – NASA AVIATE Project Contingency Planning & Management – Aviate Project File and Fly Visualization Tools - IR&D Non-GPS Navigation in the Terminal Area - Air Force Threat Tracking - Navy, Boeing 4D Trajectory Prediction - Navy

Command & Control Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) of Air Traffic Control (ATC) - Air Force Adaptive Task Planning Under Uncertainty - Air Force

Capability Feature Overlay for GIS correction on Video – AFOS for ICOP Navy Optimized Optical Sensing of Complex Terrain - Army Biologically-Inspired Navigation - Army UAV Ground Segment & Mission Planning Functionality - Air Force / Global Hawk

ATM Systems UAS 4D TBO studies Enroute, and Metroplex and Weather Effects on Capacity, Routing, and Airspace Design ATC and airline operations Trajectory routing research UAS Dynamic Airspace Configuration

Aviation Standards Development – RTCA SC-203 and RTCA SC-228 Volpe Center Studies - UAS Demand and NAS Impacts UAS Demand Forecasting – UAXPAN NASA SBIR Phase II UA Teams --- Maestro, and UA Teamer

System Engineering & Advanced Technologies

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

About Mosaic ATM

UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Funding/Investment Legal and regulatory

Government regulations, policies and procedures (see the state legislators)

Social Privacy, nuisance

Environmental Noise, emissions

Economic Certification, training, manufacturing

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Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Forecasting Is Important

UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Current Forecasts

“2.7 M commercial / 4.3 M recreational” – FAA“170 K commercial / 12 M recreational” – Idate Research

UAVs in 2020

“$US 10.9 Billion” – The Teal Group“$US 1.7 Billion” – Lux Research

Yearly Global Market in 2025

“$US 82 Billion (US)”– AUVSI “$US 65 Billion (global)” – The Teal Group

Cumulative Market through 2025

CURRENT UAS INDUSTRY FORECASTS AREN’T VERY USEFUL.

Problem:

WE CAN IMPROVE THEM BY INCLUDINGTYPE OF MISSION, AND LOCATION.

Thesis:

7UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Team

8UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Architecture

9UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Original Forecast Research

Growth Curve Equation

Linear

Exponential

Logistic

Gompertz

10UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Forecasting UAV Activity

11UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Governance

• Industry experts review operations/forecasts• The best are promoted and highlighted

12UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Extended Analysis

• Infrastructure• Environment• Economy• …?

FINDINGS

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14UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Preliminary UAV Activity Data

Activity 2016 2036Quarry Mining - Materials Auditing 50 4,545Cell Tower Inspection 100 10,000Comm. Building - Energy Audit 100 56,000US Border Patrol 10 100Rice Farm - Crop Dusting 50 15,000Rice Farm - Crop Audits 250 2,500Federal Forests - Inventory 300 302,000Federal Forests - Monitoring Illegal Activity 300 302,000Federal Forests - Operational Planning 250 25,000Federal Forests - Rapid Response 100 10,000Refinery Flare Stack Inspection 50 1,037Closed Set Aerial Photography 100 10,000Insurance Claim Adjustment 100 315,000Walmart Warehouse - Truck Inventory 8 284

(# UAVs)

15UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Preliminary UAV Activity Data

16UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Activity Forecasts With Locations

17UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Location Data Can Be Challenging

18UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Communications Infrastructure

IMPLICATIONS

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Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Outliers

Activity 2016 2036Quarry Mining - Materials Auditing 50 4,545Cell Tower Inspection 100 10,000Comm. Building - Energy Audit 100 56,000US Border Patrol 10 100Rice Farm - Crop Dusting 50 15,000Wind Farm Inspection 1337 100,000Federal Forests - Inventory 300 302,000Federal Forests - Monitoring Illegal Activity 300 302,000Federal Forests - Operational Planning 250 25,000Federal Forests - Rapid Response 100 10,000Refinery Flare Stack Inspection 50 1,037Closed Set Aerial Photography 100 10,000Insurance Claim Adjustment 100 315,000Walmart Warehouse - Truck Inventory 8 284

21UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Consider Location Carefully

22UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

What We Don’t Know

23UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

Detail is Critical for Planning

WHAT WE NEED

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Introduction → Project → Findings → Implications → Needs

You Can Help

• System Feedback• Forecast Data• Tools for Extended Analysis• Be Critical of Forecasts

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UAXPAN: Forecasting UAS Industry Growth & Regional Impact

Corey Snipescsnipes@mosaicatm.com(303) 589-2475

Thank You

CW

https://uaxpan.mosaicatm.com/Or, just search for “UAXPAN”

(and request an account)

www.mosaicatm.com