UAWJune 30-July 4, 2008Tokyo, Japan
Anthropogenic Heat Release
and Global Climate Change
Shi Guang-Yu1, Tan Sai-Chun1, Shen Yan-Bo2, Wang Biao1, Wang Bin1, Li Li-Juan1
1. LASG/IAP/CAS2. NCC/CMA
Contents Background
Model Results
Preliminary Conclusions
Future work
Global Warming looks like ‘True’(IPCC AR4 2007)
Since the mid-20th century, it is attributed to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHGs concentrations (IPCC AR4 2007)
Two problems haven’t been or have been incompletely included in the current climate models
Anthropogenic Heat Release (AHR)
Climate － Chemistry Feedback
18 Types of Energies8 Categories: Fossil
Fuels 、 Nuclear 、 Solar 、 Biomass 、 Hydropower 、 Wind 、Geothermal and Oceanic
• COAL (INCLUDING LIGNITE)• CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS• OIL SHALE• NATURAL BITUMEN AND EXTRA-HEAVY OIL• NATURAL GAS• Part I: URANIUM• Part II: NUCLEAR• HYDROPOWER• PEAT• WOOD (INCLUDING CHARCOAL)• BIOMASS (OTHER THAN WOOD)• SOLAR ENERGY• GEOTHERMAL ENERGY• WIND ENERGY• TIDAL ENERGY• WAVE ENERGY• OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION• MARINE CURRENT ENERGY
Nature of Energy Use1. Inner cycle of the earth system
Wind, tidal energy et al.
2.Out of the earth system ----- add forcingJohn Houghton, Global warming, 1997: Most of the energy we use can
be traced back to the sun.Fossil fuels: release the energy stored away over
millions of years in the pastSolar energy use: capture the solar energy that should
be reflected back to spaceNuclear energy: release the chemic energy from
radioactive elements which were present in the Earth when it was formed.
…
The ultimate consequence of the energy use by human is the release of heat into the earth-atmosphere system
Anthropogenic Direct Heat
Release（ Thermal Pollution ）
Anthropogenic Heat Release (IPCC AR4 2007)
A Simple Calculation for 2004
• Annual energy use world wide
10,224.4 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2004• conversion factor: 1 toe = 42 GJ= 10 034 Mcal
• equivalent to 10224.4×106×42×109=4.29×1020 J• global energy consumption per sec:
4.29×1020/(365×86400)=1.36×1013 W• surface area Earth: 5.11×1014 m2
• 1.36×1013 / 5.11×1014 =0.027 W/m2 of global “thermal pollution”.
A simple calculation for regions （ 2004）
• China ~12% of global energy consume ： 0.027×0.12×5.11e1014/(9.6e1012)≈ 0.17 W/m2
• U.S. ~24% of global energy consume ： 0.027×0.24×5.11e1014/(9.2e1012)≈ 0.36 W/m2
• Japan ~5% of global energy consume :
0.027×0.05×5.11e1014/ (3.778e1011)≈ 1.83 W/m2
• Korea ~2% of global energy consume :
0.027×0.02×5.11e1014/ (0.99237e1011)≈ 2.78 W/m2
the best estimate of anthropogenic RF (1.6 W/m2)
“thermal pollution” should not be neglected in climate modeling for highly populated areas.
Temperature rise cannot be calculated by application of Stefan-Boltzmann law.
Contents Background
Model Results
Preliminary Conclusions
Future work
Experiment IntroductionModelGrid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)
developed by Wang et al (2004) and improved by Li (2007)
Resolution: 2.8*2.8 L26
Top of model: 2.194 hPa
The method of adding AHR Sensible heat flux (SHF) Longwave Radition (LW)
Integral time: 1979-1988 10 years
0.05oC
Control: not add AHR Experiment: Add 0.027 W/m2 AHR as forced Sensible Heat Flux Observation: NCEP Integral time: 1979-1985
How about air temperature we can expected if we added
AHR to the model ??
NCEP
Experiment
Control
Added Sensible Heat Flux
experiment-control
Experiment - Control
Experiment - NCEP
Control - NCEP
Experiment - Control
Experiment - NCEP
Control - NCEP
• If the AHR is 100 times larger than that in 2004, what will happened for temperature???
• 2.7 W/m2
observation
experiment
control
NCEP
Experiment
Control
Added Sensible Heat Flux
experiment-control
experiment-NCEP
Control-NCEP
Error
Experiment - Control
Experiment - NCEP
Control - NCEP
Experiment - Control
Experiment - NCEP
Control - NCEP
Preliminary Conclusions• Global mean temperature was improved by 0.05 oC• Radiative balance at top of model and surface was
better than control• Where the larger AHR added, the larger increase in
air temperature
Seem like that
It’s reasonable to take AHR into account in climate model
&
Air temperature will go to upward with added AHR
Future Works
Model for 2050, 2100,…??
How much temperature will rise once adding AHR??
How much contribution of AHR to the climate ???
A simple and cursory calculation（ After 2050）
• Basic supposition:– American GDP is 3 times larger than in 2004; and energy
consumption is 3 times larger than in 2004– The Global population :10 Billion– Energy consume per person is equal to Americans
• RF of Heat Release in Regions:– U.S. ： 0.36x3=1.08 W/m2
– China ： 1.49X3=4.47 W/m2; larger than the RF caused by doubling CO2 3.75!
– Due to the imbalance of economy, RF in east and south of China up to 10 W/m2 !!!
• Global ： 0.027*10*3 = 0.81W/m2 ， can be compared with the best estimate of anthropogenic RF(1.6 W/m2)
Welcome any suggestions
Thank you!
sulfateforondistributiglobalemissionsulfateofmeanglobal
SHF 2W/m027.0
