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July 2014 Global Asset Management UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, asset allocation for this Fund was adjusted with effect from July 19, 2010. All performance details thus refer to the date of the repositioning. For Professional Clients only
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Page 1: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

July 2014

Global Asset Management

UBS Equity China Opportunity FundDelivering Alpha in China

Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, asset allocation for this Fund was adjusted with effect from July 19, 2010. All performance details thus refer to the date of the repositioning.

For Professional Clients only

Page 2: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Table of contents

Section 1 Performance 3

Section 2 Positioning 7

Section 3 Stock Picking Examples 13

Section 4 China Economic Review and Outlook 17

Section 5 Additional Information 28

Page 3: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Investment Philosophy and Process

Section 1

Page 4: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

4

Distinctive investment philosophy

• Intrinsic value is defined by the

fundamentals which determine a security’s

cash flows

• Discrepancies between price and intrinsic

value combined with market behaviour

provide opportunities to add value

• Focus on quality, profitability and corporate

governance

• Investing for the long term benefit of our

clients

overvalued

Price

Time

Intrinsicvalue

undervalued

Price / intrinsic value is our only focus

Page 5: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

5

Client portfolio

Portfolio teamWork as a team to challenge and

implement best research ideas

Global-Local Fundamental research70-80% of valued-added

Risk system

Accurately quantifyall portfolio risks

…to create a single ´Optimal’ portfolio

Investment processDisciplined application of global fundamental research…

Page 6: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

6

Research drives results

• Sector portfolios = buy list• Comprehensive research

database (Pedestal)

• Research with global and local perspectives• Common valuation process and system (GEVS1)• Career analysts and PMs are ‘equals’

• Remuneration linked to results• Analysts manage ‘real’ money

Global research

Accountability

Effective communications

1 - Global Equity Valuation System

Page 7: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

7

Transparent portfolio construction process

• Role of Sector/Industry Analysts

– Conduct sector/industry research, provide view on sectors/industries

– Analyse individual companies considering profitability, corporate governance, management quality and valuations

– Generate bottom-up stock ideas, reflecting these in client portfolio

– Work with portfolio managers to form various client portfolios

• Role of Portfolio Management Team

– Provide peer review and macro guidance for analysts research, combining analyst expertise with PM stock insights and macro views

– Construct various client portfolios based on analysts preferred stock ideas, concentrating or diversifying according to requirements

– Adhere to investment guidelines and restrictions

– Analyse portfolio risk exposure and risk allocation with the help of UBS Risk system

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8

Industry-Leading Risk System - GERS

Comprehensiverisk factors

Note: For illustrative purposes only. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any securityTypical active risk data are indicative only. The actual active risk level will vary according to market conditions and our views. Active risk is an ex-ante forecast calculated using BARRA or other suitable system based on the final valuations of the last working day of each month. Active risk levels are reported to clients on a quarterly basis."Source: GERS, UBS Global Asset Management

Highest conviction ideas

Industry and country risk factors that mirror the way we manage regional portfolios

Tracking error: 5.32%Beta: 0.87

Page 9: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Team and AUM

Section 2

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C:\Program Files\UBS\Pres\Templates\PresPrintOnScreen.pot

10

Asia Equities TeamStable and experienced team

Note: As of March 2014Source: UBS Global Asset Management

Geoffrey Wong

Head Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities

Singapore / Hong Kong

Jimmy Chua

Head Trader

Dorothy Lek

Trader

Han Yaw Juan

Trader

Reginald Oh

Trader

Paul Hillman

Trader

Shi Bin

Portfolio Manager (China)

Chan Chee Seng

Analyst

Huang Hai

Analyst (China)

Zhang Yu

Analyst (China)

Analyst

Leslie Chow

Namit Nayegandhi

Analyst

Matthew Adams

Analyst

Choo Shou Pin

Analyst

Yoko Fujii

Analyst

Cheah Yit Mee

Portfolio Manager

Manish Modi

Portfolio Manager

Projit Chatterjee

Equity Strategist

Raymond Wong

Analyst

Kelvin Teo

Analyst

Grace Tay

Equity Strategist

Kevin Koh

Analyst

Derrick Sun

Analyst (China)

Denise Cheung

Equity Strategist

Joanne Tan

Trader

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Assets under managementTotal AUM in GEM* & Asia strategies (core/value) ~ USD 21 bn, as of 30 Jun 14

Note: AUM data is from the investment team and is unaudited and approximate.*GEM refers to Global Emerging Markets

Source: UBS Global Asset Management

Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jun-14Asian Equities 0.6 1.3 2.4 5.7 8.1 15.3 6.2 14.5 17.9 14.4 16.2 13.9 14.0

Regional 0.6 1.1 2.1 5.0 6.3 10.5 4.3 9.9 12.8 10.5 11.9 9.5 9.7 China Equities 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 3.2 1.0 3.1 3.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 Other Asian Country and Thematic 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7

GEM Equities 1.6 3.7 5.8 5.9 7.6 6.3 2.9 5.7 7.0 4.9 8.1 6.9 6.8 GEM - - - 4.9 6.6 5.1 2.6 5.1 6.0 3.5 4.6 3.3 3.0 GEM HALO - - - - - - 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 GEM Others (HD and BRIC) - - 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6

Latam & EMEA Equities 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.2 2.2 2.8 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6

Total 2.5 5.4 8.9 13.7 18.0 24.3 10.0 21.8 26.7 20.7 25.5 21.6 21.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dez 02 Dez 03 Dez 04 Dez 05 Dez 06 Dez 07 Dez 08 Dez 09 Dez 10 Dez 11 Dez 12 Dez 13 Jun 14

USD

bill

ion

Asian Equities GEM Equities Latam & EMEA Equities

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12

Assets under management – China Equity Strategies

Source: UBS Global Asset ManagementNote: AUM data is from the investment team and is unaudited and approximate.

Total China Equity Strategies ~ USD 2.6 bn, as of 30 June 2014

Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jun-14Greater China Equities

0.2 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4

China Equities -- 0.0 0.1 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6

China A Equities -- -- -- 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6

TOTAL 0.2 0.3 0.6 3.3 3.2 1.0 3.1 3.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6

Page 13: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Section 1

China Opportunity

Page 14: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

14

Why invest in the UBS China Opportunity Equities?

Local Expertise via UBS SDIC JV in China

UBS Equity China Opportunity

Local Expertise via UBS SDIC JV in China

40 – 70 High Conviction Stocks

Pure China Focus

PM with Proven Track Record

Unconstrained by Benchmark

Award Winning Fund Manager* – UBS Greater

China Fund

UBS China Opportunity – an aggregation of success factors.

Source: Lipper Fund Award (Singapore) in 2014 for performance over 10 years in Greater China Equity

Page 15: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Outstanding Performance in 2012 and 2013

Time period: 1 January 2012 – 30 June 2014

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: UBS Global Asset Management & Morningstar. Data as at end of June, 2014. (Performance is gross of sales charges) Peer average is the average fund performance of Morningstar China Equity universe (in terms of USD). 1 Repositioned from UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Hong Kong to UBS (Lux) Equity Fund – China Opportunity on 19 July 2010. Performance of strategy started as of that date.

2014 YTD 2013 2012 2011 1 Y 2 Y 3Y Since Inception1

Performance (USD % cumulative) Return Quartile Return Quartile Return Quartile Return Quartile Return Quartile Return Quartile Return Quartile Return Quartile

Std.Dev (ann.)

UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund 0.48 1 28.6 1 26.1 1 -32.7 4 23 1 52.78 1 17.67 1 22.72 1 23.12Reference Index: MSCI China -0.67 3.6 22.8 -18.4 15.67 21.63 2.15 15.44 25.50

Peer Average: China Equity -4.32 7.8 14.9 -23.03 10.93 17.16 -7.27 8.25 23.78

Peer Average – China Equity: +21.4%

UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund: +62.9%

Reference Index - MSCI China: +26.4%

UBS (Lux) EF - China Opportunity (USD) P, (As of end June 2014, Net of fees)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

01.01.2012 01.04.2012 01.07.2012 01.10.2012 01.01.2013 01.04.2013 01.07.2013 01.10.2013 01.01.2014 01.04.2014

UBS Equity China Opportunity (USD) Peer Average - China Equity Ref Index: MSCI China

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-40,0%

-30,0%

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

UBS Equity China Opportunity (USD) Ref Index: MSCI China

Performance: UBS Equity China Opportunity (USD) P

Time period: Since inception1 – 30 June 2014

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Morningstar & UBS Global Asset Management, data as at end of June, 2014 (Performance is gross of sales charges). 1 Repositioned from UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Hong Kong to UBS (Lux) Equity Fund – China Opportunity on 19 July 2010. Performance of strategy started as of that date.

Since Inception1

Performance (USD % cumulative) Return Std.Dev (ann.)

UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund 22.72 23.12

Reference Index: MSCI China (USD) 15.44 25.50

UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund: +22.72%

MSCI China Index: +15.44%

Since Inception1, as at end of June 2014, Net of fees

Page 17: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Section 2

Positioning

Page 18: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

20,8%

12,1%

41,2%

15,7%

41,6%

22,3%

35,5%

0,6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Mega cap Large cap Mid cap Small cap

UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund MSCI China Index

Market capitalization breakdown

Past performance is not indicative of future results. #Mega Cap: > US$30 bn; Large Cap: US$10 – 30 bn); Mid Cap: US$1 – 10 bn); Small Cap: < US$1 bn.For illustrative purposes only. The above market capitalization allocations are only indicative and can be changed at any time at UBS‘s discretion. Source: UBS Global Asset Management & Bloomberg, as at end of June, 2014

As at end of Jun, 2014 UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund: Small/Mid Cap bias: 57%

Mid- and small-caps bias to generate alpha

Market Cap# Overweight/ (underweight) relative to

benchmarkMega cap -20.8%

Large cap -10.2

Mid cap 5.7

Small cap 15.1

Page 19: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

19

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Financials I.T. ConsumerDiscretionary

Health Care ConsumerStaples

Energy Industrials Materials Telecom.Services

Utilities Cash

UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund

Reference Index: MSCI China

Favorite sector: IT

Why?

•Urbanization and wages increase contributed to the extensive penetration of the mobile devices in China

•E-commerce, mobile gaming and social networking become more popular and widely-accepted

•Quality companies with strong execution ability

Favorite sector: Healthcare

Why?

•As living standard improves, we expect to see more spending on this sector

•Government extended coverage and increased reimbursement of hospital and drug expenses

•Long term upside due to above average earnings prospect and consistency

Portfolio Positioning – Sector

For illustrative purposes only. The above sector allocations are only indicative and can be changed at any time at UBS' discretion. Source: UBS Global Asset Management, as at end of June 2014

Sector weightings (%) as of 30 June 2014

Page 20: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Reflecting growing importance of private sector versus SOEs

Private sector weight set to rise in MSCI China index

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg as of Feb 2014

* Given 1) our forecast of each sector’s output composition (between SOEs and private firms) changes and each sector’s nominal GDP growth in the next 10 years, 2) the recent trend that private firms now account for the majority of new IPOs in A share and overseas markets, and assuming it will continue and even accelerate; and 3) our expectation that some SOE constituents will likely be dropped out of the indices as their market cap shrinks in absolute or relative terms, we expect that the index weight of private companies will increase to around 50% and 60% in the MSCI China and CSI 300 respectively by 2023.

MSCI China current weight, 2013 MSCI China predicted weight* , 2023E

23%77%

50%50%SOE

Private

Page 21: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Te

leco

mm

unic

atio

n Se

rvic

es

Util

ities

Ener

gy

Info

rmat

ion

Tech

nolo

gy

Con

sum

er S

tapl

es

Hea

lth C

are

Mat

eria

ls

Con

sum

er D

iscr

etio

nary

Indu

stria

ls

Fina

ncia

ls

MSCI China A MSCI China MSCI USA

Under-represented sectors in China Reform measures aim to improve reduce economic imbalances and we seek to find bottom-up opportunities benefiting from this trend

Source: UBS Global Asset Management, FactSet, as of end June, 2014.

(%)

21

Page 22: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Portfolio Positioning – Country and Top Holdings

Country allocation

Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Note: This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security.

Top 10 holdings (%)

Total AUM: USD453 m

As at end of June, 2014

Cash10.2%

H Shares + Red Chips

89.1%

B Shares,0.7%

China89.8%

Fund Benchmark

Tencent Holdings Ltd 9.89% 10.39%

TAL Education Group 6.10% 0.00%

Shenzhen International Holdings 3.40% 0.00%

China Petroleum & Chemical 3.10% 3.23%

AIA Group 2.96% 0.00%

Galaxy Entertainment 2.62% 0.00%

PetroChina 2.42% 3.54%

Lijun International 2.23% 0.00%

Shenzhen Investment 2.20% 0.00%

China Taiping Insurance 2.15% 0.20%

Page 23: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Section 3

Stock Picking Examples

Page 24: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Stock example: Tencent Holdings

Investment highlights:

•Wide range of internet services covering large amount of users across the country

•Application with highest time spend among China's smartphone users

Future opportunities / developments with WeChat

• More innovative and disruptive services to be launched

• Huge potential in the mobile game market, attracting numerous new users at nearly zero cost

• More opportunities from mobile ads, mobile payment, mobile commerce and even from mobile search.

Source: Company data , as of Q3 2013.

Mega/Large Cap

Largest business ecosystems/open internet platform in China

7.212.4

19.628.5

43.9

60.4

81.0

0102030405060708090

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 E

CN

Y (b

n)

Revenue Growth

CAGR: 42%

Source: Company data as of Mar 2014. Bloomberg consensus estimate for FY 2014.

This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security

Page 25: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Stock example: Sino Biopharmaceutical

China's Public Healthcare Expenditure as % of GDP

Still low vs. other countries (World Bank: 2011)

Strong products and R&D in Hepatitis, Cardio-cerebral and Oncology

Sales of Sino Biopharm's key products

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012H

K$

Mill

ion

Cardio-cerebral Medicines Hepatitis medicinesOncology medicines Others

Quelle: Company data as of Jan 2014

• Sino Biopharmaceutical is a leading pharmaceutical enterprise in China, specializing in Research & Development, production and distribution of pharmaceutical products

• R&D is a core competence: It spends ~10% of revenue on R&D vs. industry average of <2%.

Mid Cap

2,9

7,4

8,98,4 8,2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

China Japan France Germany USA

Source: UBS Global AM, World bank as of Jan 2014.

This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security

Page 26: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Stock example: TAL Education

• TAL Education Group is an after-school tutoring services provider in China, offering tutoring services to students from pre-school to the twelfth grade (K-12)

• Originated from Beijing, regional expansion should drive revenue growth of +30% CAGR over next three years.

• Actively developed its online education market, owning the largest online teaching platform (xueersi.com) and the largest online parents community (eduu.com). This could be a potential future growth driver.

Leading after-school tutoring services provider in China

Small Cap

Source: Company data, BNP Paribas, as of Jan 2014.

Ample growth opportunities as TAL Ed expands into new cities

Percentage revenue from cities outside of Beijing and Shanghai expected to grow in 2014

This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security

Page 27: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Section 4

China Economic Review and Outlook

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

E

2015

E

YoY (%)

China Real GDP growth

A slowdown but not a hard landing

Source: UBS IB estimates as of Feb 2014

Year on Year GDP growth

China's GDP growth expectedly slowing but not falling off a cliffDriven by structural reforms and a lower GDP growth target going forward

2014-15 target: 7.5%

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A weighted index of railway cargos, power consumption and bank loans, is a more reliable indicator of the real economy than reported GDP.

The Li Keqiang Index: Structural slowdown in real economy continues

Source: CEIC, as of end of June 2014

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Official Real GDP Li Keqiang Index

%Y

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Total debt level still manageable

Source: Goldman Sachs Research, BIS, National Statistical Offices, IMF, World Bank as of end 2012

63

56

49

37

30

24

22

21

12

116 0

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Japa

n

Chi

na

Fran

ce

Kor

ea

Thai

land

Braz

il

US

Mex

ico

Ger

man

y

Russ

ia

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Corporate Household

(%) (%)Change in debt-to-GDPratio (2007-2012) by sector:

Leverage increase has been significant in recent years, in particular in the corporate segment

Even with the increase in debt, China has the lowest overall debt to GDP ratio of major economy in the world

However, comparing to other countries, leverage remains low in household and public sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

Sing

apor

e

Chi

na UK

Avg

ex

Chi

na

Kor

ea EU

Taiw

an

Japa

n

USA

HousholdNon-Financial CorporateNon-Financial Private SectorPublic Sector

(%)

Debt-to-GDP ratio (2013) by sector:

Source: Research-Works , Dismal Science Group as of end 2013

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-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

TS CS CD HC IT EN MXCN FN IN MT UT

2012 D/E 3Q2013 D/E

Leverage in new economy sectors are low

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

Note – Financial sector only includes properties

Abbreviations - TS: Telecom Services, CS: Consumer Staples, CD: Consumer Discretionary, HC: Healthcare, IT: Information Technology, EN: Energy, FN: Financials, IN: Industrials, MT: Materials, UT: Utility, MXCN: MSCI China

Consumer, IT and Healthcare sectors have lower debt to equity (D/E) ratios

Financial leverage for MSCI China sectors

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7%

16%

11%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

SOEs SMEs (current) SMEs (post-reform)

80%

20%

31%

69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SOEs Private sector

Loans provided GDP contributed

Bank lending rates, 2007-2012 averageBanking loans for SOEs vs. private sector

Importance of SOEs increases funding costs for private firmsDeregulation should provide private firms with much greater access to financing and lower funding costs (by 5-6ppts)

Source: CBRC, Hexun, Roadoor.com, Deutsche Bank estimate as of January 2014.Note: SOE refers to State-Owned Enterprises and SME refers to Small & Medium Enterprises.

Page 33: UBS China Opportunity Fund 201406 LC - · PDF fileUBS Equity China Opportunity Fund Delivering Alpha in China Following the realignment of the UBS investment fund range, ... • Common

Private enterprises more profitable than SOEs

9,4%

13,4%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H13

MSCI China SOE ROE POE ROE

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Equity Strategy, data as of end Dec, 2013.ROE: Return on Equity

Private-owned enterprises (POEs) have higher ROE than State-owned enterprises (SOEs)

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Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Nov 2013. Market conditions are subject to change.

Extensive policies announced by new leadership in the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee

Strong reform agenda should drive sustainable growth

Key Reform Areas Main objectivesFinancial / Market Economy

To deregulate FX exchange rate and interest rate regime

To speed up the capital account convertibility

To support the development of Free Trade ZonesFiscal / Tax To deepen fiscal and tax reform

Reforms on social responsibility and expenditure for central / local governments

Demographics To allow urban families with either parent being single-child to have a second child

Hukou Reform To gradually ease the control of Hukou system in promoting urbanization

Social safety net / Health Care

To improve social insurance coverage

To deepen medical reform by encouraging private investment

To study the progressive increase in retirement age

Pension reformLand use right To grant farmers more property ownership rights

SOE To separate party structural and operation and to open authorized area for competitionTo gradually increase SOE's profit contribution to fiscal revenue (30% of SOE profit in year 2020)

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11%

8%

5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Consumable babyproducts (infant

formula, diaper, etc)

Durable bay products(baby stroller, clothing

and footwear)

Children Education

Favorable effects from relaxation of one child policy

Boost spending on baby products and children educationProjected increase number of newborns

in urban areasProjected increase in annual sales from base case (%) Period: 2014-2018

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

9,0

9,5

10,0

10,5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rural newborns Urban newborns

Expect number of new borns to be boosted by 1.6mn per year from 2014-18

Source: Deutsche Bank Population Model, NBS as of Feb 2014. Market conditions are subject to change.We expect the biggest increase from the one child policy to come from urban areas if the policy is rolled back nationwide. The rural decline reflects the demographic change and more importantly the urbanization process. This result implies that most of the benefits from the baby boom will be seen in urban areas.

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36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1.1.2003 1.1.2004 1.1.2005 1.1.2006 1.1.2007 1.1.2008 1.1.2009 1.1.2010 1.1.2011 1.1.2012 1.1.2013 1.1.2014

-1 s.d.

+1 s.d.

Historical 10-Year Avg P/E

Attractive

China Equities: Attractive Valuation

Source: Bloomberg, data from 4/30/2004 – 6/30/2014Past performance is not indicative of future results.

10-Year P/E ratio – MSCI China Index

Past 10-Year price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of MSCI China Index

10 Years ValuationsCurrent

P/EAverage

P/E

MSCI China Index 9.4x 13.9x

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China Strategy: 2014

• Urbanization and structural reforms under the new leadership will continue to drive sustainable growth in the medium to long term

• Implementation of such sweeping changes remains key although the level of detail outlined in the Third Plenary Session agenda showed strong conviction from the Government

• We continue to focus on sectors with strong secular growth and earnings visibility, such as Consumer Staples and Health Care, and maintain our bottom up stock picking strategy

• In the medium to long run, we believe that current valuation is attractive from a long term growth perspective

China

• Banks

• Telecom and Utilities

Sector Allocation: Underweight

• IT

• Health Care

Sector Allocation: Overweight

Source: UBS Global Asset Management.Market conditions and investment strategies are subject to change.

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Bios & Disclaimer

Appendix A

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Bin Shi, CFA

• Bin Shi is a member of the Global Emerging Market and Asia Pacific Equities team, located in Hong Kong. He is Country Analyst and Portfolio Manager for China with a focus on Chinese stocks listed on both the overseas and domestic Chinese stock exchanges.

• Prior to joining UBS Global Asset Management, Bin spent three years as Head of Int’l Business, portfolio manager and analyst with Boshi Fund Management Co., one of the largest domestic mutual fund companies in China. Prior to that, he worked in the US for eight years as portfolio manager and analyst for several US mutual fund firms.

• Bin joined UBS in January 2006 and has managed the Greater China Fund since April 2006.

Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst, Global Emerging Market and Asia Pacific Equities, Managing Director

Years of investment industry experience: 21

Education: Fudan University (China), BA; Tulane University (US), MA

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Hai Huang Research Analyst, Global Emerging Markets & Asia Pacific Equities Director

Years of investment industry experience: 11

Education: University of Manchester (UK), BA

• Hai Huang is a member of the Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities teams and is responsible for investment analysis of China/Hong Kong equities.

• Hai joined UBS Global Asset Management as a China analyst in 2008. Prior to this, he was an investment analyst with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) covering Machinery and Aerospace & Defense sectors. Prior to that, Hai was an analyst for small & mid-cap with CICC.

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Yu Zhang

• Yu Zhang is a member of the Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities team and is responsible for investment analysis of China/Hong Kong equities.

• Yu joined UBS Global Asset Management as a China analyst in July 2011. Prior to this, he worked for one year in UBS equity research as an investment analyst covering China’s TMT companies.

• Yu also had six years of investment consulting experience where he helped many top tier HF and PE make successful investments in China. Prior to that, he worked at the telecom company Ericsson for four years.

Research Analyst, Global Emerging Markets & Asia Pacific EquitiesDirectorYears of investment industry experience: 10

Education: Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications (China), BA

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Derrick Sun

• Derrick Sun is a member of the Global Emerging Markets and Asian Pacific Equities team and is responsible for investment analysis of China/Hong Kong Equities.

• Derrick joined UBS Global Asset Management in July 2013. Prior to this, he was head of research for healthcare and small & mid-cap with Bank of China International (BOCI) and BNP Paribas.

• Previous industry experience includes 5 years managing a bio-pharmaceutical company’s Shanghai subsidiary and 5 years in Deloitte Consulting (US) where he provided business consulting services to Fortune 500 healthcare and consumer companies.

Research Analyst, Global Emerging Markets & Asia Pacific EquitiesExecutive DirectorYears of investment industry experience: 7

Education: University of Kentucky (US), BS & BBA; MBA

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Disclaimer

Für Marketing- und Informationszwecke von UBS. UBS Fonds nach luxemburger Recht. Vertreter in Deutschland für UBS Fonds ausländischen Rechts: UBS Deutschland AG, Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2-4, 60306 Frankfurt am Main. Investitionen in diesem Produkt sollten nur nach gründlichem Studium des aktuellen Prospekts erfolgen. Prospekte, wesentliche Anlegerinformationen, die Satzung bzw. Vertragsbedingungen sowie die Jahres- und Halbjahresberichte der UBS Fonds können kostenlos bei UBS Deutschland AG bzw. bei UBS Global Asset Management (Deutschland) GmbH, Bockenheimer Landstraße 2-4, 60306 Frankfurt am Main angefordert werden. Anteile der erwähnten UBS Fonds dürfen innerhalb der USA weder angeboten noch verkauft oder ausgeliefert werden. Die genannten Informationen sind weder als Angebot noch als Aufforderung zum Kauf bzw. Verkauf irgendwelcher Wertpapiere oder verwandter Finanzinstrumente zu verstehen. Die frühere Wertentwicklung ist kein verlässlicher Indikator für künftige Ergebnisse. Die dargestellte Performance lässt möglichebei Zeichnung und Rücknahme von Anteilen erhobene Gebühren und Kosten unberücksichtigt. Gebühren und Kosten wirken sich nachteilig auf die Performance aus. Sollte die Währung eines Finanzprodukts oder einer Finanzdienstleistung nicht mit Ihrer Referenzwährung übereinstimmen, kann sich die Rendite aufgrund der Währungsschwankungen erhöhen oder verringern. Diese Informationen berücksichtigen weder die spezifischen oder künftigen Anlageziele noch die steuerliche oder finanzielle Lage oder die individuellen Bedürfnisse des einzelnen Empfängers. Dieses Dokument enthält „zukunftsgerichteteAussagen“, die unter anderem, aber nicht nur, auch Aussagen über unsere künftige Geschäftsentwicklung beinhalten. Während diese zukunftsgerichteten Aussagen unsere Einschätzung und unsere Geschäftserwartungen ausdrücken, können verschiedene Risiken, Unsicherheiten und andere wichtige Faktoren dazu führen, dass die tatsächlichen Entwicklungen und Resultate sich von unseren Erwartungen deutlich unterscheiden. Die Angaben in diesem Dokument werden ohne jegliche Garantie oder Zusicherung zur Verfügung gestellt, dienen ausschließlich zur Informationszwecken und sind lediglich zum persönlichen Gebrauch des Empfängers bestimmt. Quelle für sämtliche Daten und Grafiken (sofern nicht anders vermerkt): UBS Global Asset Management.

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GE


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