+ All Categories
Home > Documents > UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and...

UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and...

Date post: 28-Mar-2018
Category:
Upload: nguyenthien
View: 216 times
Download: 2 times
Share this document with a friend
54
FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY. UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference September, 2015
Transcript
Page 1: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.

UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference September, 2015

Page 2: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

2

The information contained in this presentation may include statements whichconstitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S.Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities ExchangeAct of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree ofrisk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and otherforecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although consideredreasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, ormay not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectationsdisclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautionedthat any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performanceand involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially fromthose in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but notlimited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in thecompany’s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, andspecifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whichspeak only for the date on which they are made.

Disclaimer

Page 3: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

3

Company Overview1Pulp and Paper Market2Financial and Operational Highlights3

Agenda

Final Remarks4

Page 4: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

4

Company Overview

Page 5: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

5

A Winning Player

Port Terminal Pulp Unit

Três Lagoas

Santos

AracruzPortocel

Caravelas

BelmonteVeracel

Jacareí

Superior Asset Combination Main Figures – 2Q15 LTM

Pulp capacity million tons 5,300

Net revenues R$ billion 8.0

Total Forest Base(1) thousand hectares 967

Planted area(1) thousand hectares 563

Net Debt R$ billion 8.2

Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2) X 1.95

Source: Fibria(1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State. (2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.

Page 6: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

6

Fibria’s Units Industrial Capacity

* Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year

Page 7: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

7

Worldwide presence

Strong global customer base

Long-term relationships

Focus on customers with stable business

Customized pulp products and services

Sound forestry and industrial R&D

Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue

Efficient logistics set up

Low dependence on volatile markets such as China

Low credit risk

100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor)

Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria Highlights

Fibria’s Commercial Strategy

Net Revenues by Region - Fibria

Region - 2Q15 End Use - 2Q15

44% 44% 42% 37%43% 43%

35% 36%46% 42% 39% 40%

47% 42%

18%26% 26%

30% 22%29%

31% 31%19% 23% 27% 27% 17% 24%

29%20% 22% 25% 26%

21%25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26%

9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9%

1T12 2T12 3T12 4T12 1T13 2T13 3T13 4T13 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15

Europe North America Asia Other

49%

36%

15%

Printing & Writing

Specialties

42%

24%

26%

8%

Europe

North

Asia

LatAm

Tissue

Page 8: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

8

Pulp Supply Agreement: Puma Project

Logistics and commercial structure synergies;

Ensure sales volumes;

Ensure pulp market access with Klabin brand.

Logistics and commercial optimization and synergies;

Support customers’ growth and enhance customers’ needs;

Potential development of new customers.

▶ Agreement benefits:

Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customer’s base

▶ Pulp volumes:

• Minimum of 900 kt of hardwood for the first 4 years• 75% of 900 kt for the fifth year (phase out 1)• 50% of 900 kt for the sixth year (phase out 2)

▶ Selling price based on the average net price charged by Fibria at the Port of Paranaguá (FOB Paranaguá)

▶ Operational startup: Mar/2016

▶ Sales destination: Globally, except for South America

Page 9: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

9

(1) Controlling group(2) Free Float 41.36% + Treasury 0.06%

Votorantim Industrial S.A. (1)

29.42%

BNDESParticipações (1)

29.16%

FreeFloat (2)

41.42%

• Only 1 class of shares →100% voting rights

• 100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%)

• Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members

• Financial Statements in International Standards – IFRS

• Adoption of Arbitration Chamber

• SEC Registered ADR Level III program

• Indebtedness and Liquidity

• Market Risk Management

• Risk Management

• Corporate Governance

• Related Parties Transactions

• Anti-Corruption

• Information Disclosure

• Securities Trading

• Antitrust

• Genetically Modified Eucalyptus

Fiscal Council

Board of Directors

20% independent

members

Role of CEO and

chairman is split

Personnel and Remuneration

Committee

Statutory Audit

Committee

Finance Committee

Sustainability Committee

Innovation Committee

General Meeting

Listed on Novo Mercado, highest level at BM&FBovespa: Policies approved by the Board of Directors:

Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance

30%

independent

members

100%

independent

members

50% independent members

45% independent members

-

Page 10: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

10

Pulp and Paper Market

Page 11: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

11

Expected scenario for 2013 in Nov’2012

BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES

Realized scenario in 2013

1,270

100

-155

-410

-140

-60

605

1,310

Eldorado

UPM Fray Bentos

Sappi Cloquet

Jari

Cellulose du Maroc

Sodra Tofte

Net

BEKP demand growth*

1,275

320

555

-155

-410

1,585

1,080

Eldorado

Suzano Maranhão

Montes del Plata

Sappi Cloquet

Jari

Net

BEKP demand growth*

DELAYED

UnexpectedClosures

In 2013, we stressed the difference between the expected scenarioand the realized one...

*Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012 *Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp September 2014

Page 12: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

12

As a result we had better prices than expected

Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2012 for 2013 prices)

BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t)

765

772

767

784

772

788

814

795

770

791

740

750

760

770

780

790

800

810

820

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Annual 2013

Consultants average for 2013 Realized PIX/FOEX price

Page 13: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

13

BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES

The “better than expected scenario” happened again last year...

Realized scenario in 2014

1,770

-105

-85

-65

-120

-70

100

235

550

1,100

230

BEKP demand growth

Net

Ence Huelva

Old Town

APRIL Rizhao

Sodra Tofte

Sappi Cloquet

UPM

Oji Nantong*

Montes del Plata

Suzano Maranhão

Eldorado

1,7341,380

2,660

-120

-115

560

830

1,275

230

BEKP demand growth**

Net

Sodra Tofte

Sappi Cloquet

Oji Nantong*

Montes del Plata

Suzano Maranhão

Eldorado

Expected scenario for 2014 in Dec’13

More unexpected mill closures

*Partly integrated to existing PM**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2013

*Approved license only for 500,000 t/y

Page 14: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

14

… and also better prices than initially projected

BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t)

782

737

696

718

733

768

752

729734

746

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Annual 2014

Consultants average for 2014 Realized PIX/FOEX price

Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2013 for 2014 prices)

Page 15: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

15

Then, what about 2015?

1005

-315

-65

115

85

30

200

750

265

750

400

BEKP demand growth**

Net

Possible closures*

Ence Huelva

April Rizhao

Sappi Cloquet

Old Town (Expera)

Portucel Cacia

Eldorado

CMPC Guaiba II

Oji Nantong

Montes del Plata

Suzano Maranhão

-400 to -800

1,415 to 1,815

Expected scenario for 2015 in Dec’14 Realized scenario in 2015

?

BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES

*Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr)**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp September 2014

Page 16: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

16

Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp

(1) Source: PPPC World 20 – January/2015

Global Market BEKP Demand

Paper Capacity increase in China

2014 2015 Total

FORECAST REALIZEDPREVIOUS FORECAST

LATEST FORECAST

PREVIOUS LATEST

Woodfree 256 256 760 760 1,016 1,016

Tissue 1,390 1,278 727 1,365 2,117 2,643

Cartonboard 2,100 1,326 380 730 2,480 2,056

Total 3,746 2,860 1,867 2,855 5,613 5,715

Source: Fibria and Independent Consultants

790 kt

99 kt 130 kt319 kt 242 kt

10%

12% 4%

17%11%

Total NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

China Others

6M2015 vs. 6M2014(2)

(1) Source: PPPC World 20 – December/2014

2014 vs. 2013(1)

1,734 kt

92 kt

386 kt717 kt

537 kt

11%

5%

6%

20%13%

Total NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

China Others

(2) Source: PPPC World 20 – Jun/2015

Page 17: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

17

Commodities Differentiation

China GDP breakdown

China commodity demand - basis 100

49% 49% 48% 49% 49% 50% 50% 50% 51% 51% 52%

44% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 47% 47% 46%

8% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Consumption Investment Net Exports

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Corn Soybeans Wheat Crude oil Iron ore Sugar BHKP

100

248

204190

166153

124120

Source: Itaú Macroeconomic Department and PPPC – May/15

Page 18: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

18

Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp IndustryFurther closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry…

Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp

STRONGWeighted average

technical age 12.3 years

Weighted average

capacity 1,277,000 t/a

Aracruz

Três Lagoas

Veracel

Jacareí

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

051015202530

PM Capacity, 1000 t/a

Technical Age, years

WEAK

STRONGWeighted average

technical age 21 years

Weighted average

capacity 527,000 t/a

North American Pulp Mills Other Pulp Mills Closures Grade Switch On & Off

WEAK0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

0102030

PM Capacity, 1000 t/a

Technical Age, years

More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.

Old Town

EnceHuelva

Page 19: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

19

Source: PPPC and Fibria

Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide(000 ton)

Capacity closures DO happen

-910

-85

-1,260

-1,180

-540-500

-105

-1,085

-445

-750

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2017 E(1)

(1) As of April 2015

Page 20: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

20

Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factorinfluencing pulp price volatility….(1)

List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in 2014

Cap

acit

y (0

00

to

n)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Valdivia

APP Hainan

Veracel Nueva Aldea

Santa Fé

Mucuri

FrayBentos

KerinciPL3

Três Lagoas

Rizhao

APP Guangxi

ChenmingZhanjiang

EldoradoMontes del Plata

Maranhão

Guaíba II

APP South Sumatra(2)

Klabin

OjiNantong

Horizonte II

BH

KP

pri

ces

-C

IF E

uro

pe

(U

S$/t

on

)

(1) Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (Apr/15), Brian McClay (May/15) and RISI (Dec/14)(2) Partially integrated production

Page 21: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

21

Lowest volatility among commodities

195

123

75

46

50

41

100 = January 1st, 2012

Source: Bloomberg – August 31st, 2015

Low volatility of hardwood pulp price, even though new capacities havecome on stream in the period.

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

May

-12

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ap

r-1

3

May

-13

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

De

c-1

3

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Iron Ore Soy Bean Crude Oil Sugar BHKP Price (FOEX Europe) Exchange Rate (USD - BRL)

Page 22: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

22

Brazilian macroeconomic data evolution

11 1115 13 10

-3 -6 -7 -7 -1 -1 3

13

25

34

45 4640

25 2520

30

19

2 -4 2

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Trade Balance - R$ billion

(1) From Jan/15 to Jun/15.

-8 -8 -8 -2

3 08

2 4

31

87

3

47 4959

19

-6

11

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Balance of Payments - R$ billion

(1)

Page 23: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

23

Financial and Operational Highlights

Page 24: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

24

Each 5% depreciation of the Real increases EBITDA by aroundR$403m (11%) and FCF by R$482 m (45%)

(1) Excludes Conpacel | (2) 2015 year end market consensus | (3) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank – August 28, 2015)

1,522

2,526

1,9642,253

2,796 2,791

3,682

2009(1) 2010(1) 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM 2Q15 2015 E

Exchange Rate Average (R$/US$)

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA (R$ million)

Fibria net pulp price(US$/t)

Fibria net pulp price(R$/t)

2.00 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.15 2.35 2.69

3.23(3)

456

670 639 581

610 572 561 581

29%40% 34% 36% 40% 39% 46%

912

1,1791,067 1,133

1,311 1,344 1,509

1,877

Market Consensus(2)

Page 25: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

25

559 583

35 27

12 5 ( 58 ) 3

2Q14 Wood FX Utilities Chemicals andEnergy

MaintenanceDowntimes

Others 2Q15

+ 4%

Cash Production Cost (R$/t) – 2Q15

Page 26: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (R$/ton)

Consistently controlling the

production cash cost at a level below the inflation

pace.

26

Cash Production Cost saw a annual increase of 4.2% over the past 6 years

432448

471 473505 519 531

2009 (2) 2010 (2) 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM 2Q15

CAGR: + 4.2%

(1) Constant Currency (2) Excludes Conpacel

Page 27: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

27

Net Results (R$ million) – 2Q15

1,157

614

248

146 ( 54 )( 85 )

( 478 )

( 394 )

( 64 )

AdjustedEBITDA

FX Debt /MtM Debt

Hedge

MtMOperational

Hedge

HedgeSettlement

Net Interest Deprec.,amortiz. and

depletion

Income Taxes Others Net Income(Loss)

FX Debt

deffered

MtMhedge

swap

ZCC

(1) Includes non-recurring expenses/non-cash, other FX variation expenses and other financial income/expenses.

(1)

current

2Q15 2Q15

Page 28: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

28

Free Cash Flow(1) – 2Q15

1,157

466

317

( 430 )( 93 )

( 128 )( 38 ) ( 2 )

( 149 )

Adjusted EBITDA Capex Interest(paid/received)

Working Capital Taxes Others Free Cash Flow Dividends Free Cash Flow(1)

R$ million

(2)

Evolution on return metrics ROE = 9.0% | ROE = 13.4%(3)

2Q14 2Q15

ROIC = 10.1% | ROIC = 13.9%

(1) Does not include non-recurring items. | (2) Not considering dividends payment. | (3) Cash basis. For detailed information,, see 2Q15 Results Earnings Release (page 17).

Page 29: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

29

Indebtdeness

Net Debt (Million)

2.34

2.88

2.232.43 2.30 1.95

8,4579,352 9,015

3,840 2,915 2,906

Jun/14 Mar/15 Jun/15R$ US$

Gross Debt and Interest Expenses (Million)

6,681

8,991 8,197

3,033 2,803 2,642

Jun/14 Mar/15 Jun/15

R$ US$

Net Debt/EBITDA (US$)

Debt Amortization Schedule (US$ Million) Average Tenor (months) and Cost of Debt* in US$ (% p.a.)

5035 33

Interest (US$)

- 24%

Net Debt/EBITDA (R$)

(*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves at the endof each period.

52 54 52

Jun/14 Mar/15 Jun/15

3.5 3.5 3.6

- 35%

Cash on hand : US$ 470 million

264

554

818

186 213

350

447

626

369

9021 3

600

Liquidity 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pre-payment BNDES ECN ACC/ACE Voto IV Bond

(cash)

(revolver)

Page 30: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

30

Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among its Latin American peers

Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1)

Fibria Arauco CMPC Klabin Suzano

S&P BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Negative BB+/Stable

Moody’s Ba1/Positive Baa3/Stable Baa3/Negative - Ba2+/Stable

Fitch BBB-/Stable BBB/Stable BBB+/Stable BBB-/Stable -

(1) Fibria’s historical data in BRL.

2.4 2.3

2.72.7 2.9 2.2

4.84.5 4.5

4.1

3.3

1.7 1.7

2.4

3.0

4.2 4.5

2.93.1

3.13.4

3.83.6 3.7 3.63.2

3.1 3.1

14.8

13.2

11.7 11.18.9 7.7

6.4

4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Fibria Suzano Klabin CMPC Arauco Eldorado

Page 31: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

31

A consistent and disciplined approach focused on reducing debt and its cost

Debt (US$ million) x Leverage (US$) Interest (US$ million) x Cost of Debt (US$)

Free Cash Flow Increase

Interest Reduction

Cost of Debt Reduction

These dynamics creates a virtuous

cycle

(*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves of June. 30, 2015.

8.6

2.9

6.3

2.6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun/15

Gross Debt Net Debt

7.29

4.11 4.253.32

2.60 2.411.95

473414 408

350

268200

164

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM2Q15

6.35.9

5.55.2

4.6

3.43.6(1)

Page 32: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

32

Recent funding transactions

113 120140 143 150 160

175

215

COPEC Raizen Ecopetrol Fibria Colbun Braskem Molymet Argos USA

LatAm Investment Grade Loan Spread over Libor (bps)

CRA (Certificate of Agribusiness Receivables)

Reopening of the Syndicated Export Prepayment

Upsized Amount: US$400m

Book of US$515m

Average term: 5 years

Average Cost: Libor 3M + 1.43% p.a.

Amount: up to R$675m

Tenor: 6 years bullet

Coupon: max 102.5% CDI

Booking period: Sept/2015

Avg. Term(years) 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5

Page 33: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

33

One of the best performances among Brazilian corporate issuers(1)

(1) Gspread on August 5, 2015

269 286 302 307 308341 358

413

489

Globopar 2025 Brazil 2025 Fibria 2024 BRF 2024 Embraer 2023/25 Vale 2022 Klabin 2024 Samarco 2024 Gerdau 2024

Page 34: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

34

Fibria has the simplest and most transparent call in the industry

Negative Neutral Positive

Pulp supply ✔

Closures/conversions ✔

Inefficient capacities in China ✔

Demand ✔

‣ Fiber and grade substitution ✔

‣ Tissue ✔

‣China ✔

Pulp price ✔

Brazil GDP ✔

Energy crisis ✔

FX ✔

Capex inflation ✔

Cost inflation ✔

Rating ✔

Tax ✔

Corporate Governance ✔

Page 35: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

35

Final Remarks

Page 36: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

36

Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders though capital discipline

INDUSTRY

CONSOLIDATION ?

PULP

Growth with discipline

Best portfolio of projects

DIVIDENDS

BIO-ENERGY AND

OTHER OPPORTUNITIES

Complementary to pulp

Portocel

Land and forest

FREE CASH FLOW

WITHOUT JEOPARDIZING CREDIT METRICS

Page 37: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

37

Horizonte 2 Project

Page 38: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

38

• Follow the growth of strategic customers

• Developing new customers

• Distribution to new geographic markets

• Efficiency and competitiveness gains in logistics

• Higher quality in customer service

• Greater ability to capture new expansion market windows

• Strong M&A position

Competitiveness

Commercial

positioning

Long-term growth

potential

What is the importance of growth for Fibria?

• Wider fixed costs dilution

• Cost curve position improvement

• Greater bargaining power with suppliers

Page 39: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

39

Why expand Três Lagoas?

• Brownfield Project, synergies with current operations

• Modern plant, prepared for potential expansion

• Availability of wood and low average distance from forest to mill

• Forest based on the optionality concept and prioritizing lease and partnership models

• Additional energy surplus of 120 MWh

Start-up: 4Q2017

Capacity: 1.75 million tons

ESTIMATED BHKP CAPACITY RANKING 2017 (000T)

Source: Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of May 2015)

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Others

Klabin

Domtar

Pulp Mill Holding

Lwart

Portucel Soporcel

Georgia-Pacific

Resolute

Verso

Nippon Paper

Mondi

Oji

Mitsubishi

Marubeni

IP

Altri

ENCE

Cenibra

Arauco

Stora Enso

UPM

Eldorado

APP

Suzano

RGE/APRIL

CMPC

Fibria 7,950

Current Capacity

New Capacity

New Capacity – Klabin Agreement

New Capacity – Horizonte II Project

Page 40: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

40

Pulp sales destination: Fibria growing where the market grows

(1) Considers 2Q15 last twelve months. | (2) Includes Klabin’s sales volume

37%

36%

42%

25%

19%24%

4%9%

Total sales volume distribution

after H2 start up(2)

Current sales volume distribution(1)

Page 41: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

41

Window of opportunity for H2 project in 2017

Operating Rate not considering any project entering in 2017/2018 (theoretical scenario)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New capacities (000 t) 2,208 2,150 2,300 2,300 900 2,100 1,700

Confirmed 2,208 2,150 2,050 800

Potential 250 1,500 900 2,100 1,700

Closures (000 t) (600) (600) (600) (600) (600) (600) (600)

Operating Rate considering H2

90.0%88.6%

90.3%

93.6%95.3% 94.0% 93.9%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

90.0% 88.6% 89.7% 89.5%91.1% 90.0% 90.0%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Fibria assumptions. Confirmed projects considers: Klabin Ortigueira, APP South Sumatra and Metsa Äänekoski

Page 42: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

42

Schedule

Startup

Utilities clearance and commissioningL1 interconnections

during maintenancedowntime

Initial hiring of harvest workers

Hiring of operational team

Negotiations with concession holders and

Port of Santos tendering

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

2015 2016 2017

Beginning of infrastructure and

purchase of the TGs

Purchase of theindustrial plants

Beginning ofconstruction

Beginning ofassembly

Beginning of forest machinery deliveries

Beginning of harvest

Definition of outbound logistics formats

Page 43: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

43

Forestry base

Page 44: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

44

H2 Project will have the forest base ready for the start-up

Forestry base required:

H1: 120,000 ha

H2: 174,000 ha

Total: 294,000 ha

Page 45: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

45

Logistics

Page 46: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

46

Forestry LogisticsLow average distance from forest to mill

FOREST MILL

95 km

H1 + H2 consolidated

Page 47: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

47

Outbound logisticsFibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis

Ports

Highways

Railroads

Waterways

Data Collection / Preliminary Analysis

Logistics Costs

Opex - Rates

Capex

Qualitative

Modal conditions

Analysis

Mato Grosso

Mato Grosso do

Sul

Goiás

Brasilia

Page 48: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

48

Financials

Page 49: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

49

Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, July 2015) - FX considered by the consultant of R$/US$3.14.

H2 cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted by R$3.14. Includes energy sales.

Even more competitive cash production cost BHKP (US$/t)

457421

351 347

298 291

214170

155

China USA Iberia Canada Chile/Uruguay Indonesia Brazil Fibria 2Q15 LTM Fibria w/ H2

Page 50: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

50

Up to now, 70% of the expansion capex is committed

R$ MILLION

% Index

R$ 5,548 72Inflation

indices

EUR(1) 2,004 26 FX

USD(1)/SwedishKrona

154 2 FX

Total 7,7067 100

(1) Considering USD/BRL of 2.80 and EUR/BRL of 3.13, according to

budget.

Expansion Breakdown by currency(1) Expansion capex updated expected curve

7%

58%

30%

1% 4%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

onwards

Page 51: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

51

Funding for the H2 project Sources (estimated amounts in R$ billion)

(1) Cash on hand above minimum cash balance at end of Jun-2015

(2) Working capital to be released in 2016 and 2017 in commercial deal with Klabin

Even with expansion capex at current levels of FX, leverage ratios can continue to decrease

0.6

7.8

Q2 ExcessCash(1)

BNDES CRA FDCO ECAs Banks WorkingCapital(2)

Total

Page 52: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

52

Rating agencies understand that the Project will not jeopardize Fibria’s credit metrics

“We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which

would allow it to enlarge its Três Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at

reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating”

“Fitch’s base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Três

Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675

per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x(1). Net

leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x(1) once the mill becomes operationalin the second half of 2017”

(1) According to rating agency methodology

Page 53: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

53

Project financials at a glance

UNIT

Pulp production/year(1) k tons 1,750

Expansion capex(2) R$ billion 7.7

Sustaining capex(3) R$/t 193

Cash cost(4) R$/t 341

Energy surplus MWh 120

(2) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,850 kt/year.

(3) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity considering capacity of 1,850 kt/year.

(4) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales.

(1) Creep capacity will increase production to 1,850 kt/year

Page 54: UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference Presentation_UBS... · UBS -Global Paper and Forest Products Conference ... PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012

54

Final Remarks

• Economies of scale

• Synergies with current operations

• Wood availability and low distance from forest to mill

• Fibria’s total energy surplus to be increased by 120 MWh

• Cash cost competitiveness

• Meet customers’ demand growth

• Attractive returns even in scenarios with appreciated BRL

• Solid financial profile


Recommended