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UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference March 2015
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Page 1: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference

March 2015

Page 2: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

1 1

Contents

• Introduction – Group Overview

• Strategy update

• Industry & market developments

• Strategic business units (SBUs)

• Appendix

Page 3: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Complex refining asset base and leading domestic market share; Group

benefits from refining industry upturn and Greek market stabilisation

2

• Complex refineries (Nelson index 9.6)

• Balanced sales channel mix with exports at

50% of total sales

• Leading domestic market position with c.60-

65% of wholesale and c.30% of retail

• Regional footprint with international

subsidiaries

• Completed extensive restructuring plan with

>€300m of recurring cash benefits realised to

date and c.€50-70m of further upside

• 30% of capital employed in non-refining

margin driven returns (Marketing, Petchems,

Power and NatGas)

Nelson/Solomon complexity benchmark margins

Group operational footprint

ROMANIA

TURKEY

BULGARIA

SERBIA

CYPRUS

FYROM

GREECE

ALBANIA

BOSNIA

MONTENEGRO

Refining

Marketing

Power & Gas

5* -3* 4*

*$/bbl, average 2010-14

6.9

11.39.7

5.0

13.9

8.8

Elefsina Thessaloniki Aspropyrgos

Solomon NCI

Page 4: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Shareholding & Governance Controlling shareholders’ agreement supported long-term strategy and successful transition

from state to private sector

Shareholding structure

6%

8%

36%

Greek State

Retail

7% Int’l institutionals

GR institutionals

POIH 43%

Corporate Governance

Board of Directors:

• Consists of 13 members (3 executive and 10 non

executive) appointed as per Articles of Association

• Board Committees (Finance / Audit / HR)

Executive Committee:

• Key management executives with responsibility for

strategy and operations

Management structure:

• SBU structure ensures focus on key business issues

• Regional portfolio controlled centrally

• Experienced with proven track record in

transformation

3

Page 5: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Assets overview Core business around downstream assets with activities across the energy value chain

DESCRIPTION METRICS

• Exploration assets in Greece, Montenegro

• Complex (recently upgraded) refining system:

– Aspropyrgos (FCC, 148kbpd)

– Elefsina (HDC, 100kbpd)

– Thessaloniki (HS, 93kbpd)

• Pipeline fed refinery/terminal in FYROM

• Capacity: 16MT

• NCI: 9.6

• Market share: 65%

• Tankage: 7m M3

• Leading position in all market channels (Retail,

Commercial, Aviation, Bunkering) through EKO and

HF (BP branded network)

• c.1,700 petrol stations

• 30% market share

• Sales volumes: 3MT

• Strong position in Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia,

Bulgaria

• Advantage on supply chain/vertical integration

• c.260petrol stations

• Sales volumes: 1MT

• Basel technology PP production (integrated with

refining) and trading

• > 60% exports in the Med basin

• Capacity (PP): 220 kt

• ELPEDISON: Second largest IPP in Greece (JV

with Edison/EdF)

• Capacity: 810 MW

(CCGT)

• DEPA/DESFA GROUP: 35% in Greece’s

incumbent NatGas supply company (under

privatisation)

• Volumes (2014):

• 3.0bcm

Refining, Supply & Trading

Exploration & Production

Domestic Marketing

International Marketing

Petrochemicals

Power & Gas

4

Page 6: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Our Group in numbers – key financials

5

€ million, IFRS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Income Statement

Sales Volume (MT’000) - Refining 15,885 14,502 12,528 12,796 12,696 13,538

Net Sales 7,424 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 9,478

Segmental EBITDA

- Refining, Supply & Trading 269 338 259 345 57 253

- Petrochemicals 20 50 44 47 57 81

- Marketing 92 114 66 53 68 90

- Other (incl. E&P) -19 -28 -6 0 -5 -7

Adjusted EBITDA * 362 474 363 444 178 417

Adjusted associates’ share of profit 18 30 67 69 57 28

Adjusted Net Income * 150 205 137 232 -117 5

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow

Capital Employed 3,927 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 2,870

Net Debt 1,419 1,659 1,687 1,855 1,689 1,140

Capital Expenditure (incl. refinery upgrades) 614 709 675 521 112 136

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items

Page 7: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

6

Contents

• Introduction – Group Overview

• Strategy update

• Industry & market developments

• Strategic business units (SBUs)

• Appendix

Page 8: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

7

2013-2017 Strategy Update Refocuses on operational excellence; maximise cash flows to deleverage

1

2

5

Consolidate regional and

domestic market position on

new refining asset base

Develop our people and continue

to build culture of excellence

3 Continue competitiveness

improvement

4 Leverage business portfolio

Realise full benefit of the new

investment 1

2 Deleverage Group on the back

of incremental cashflows and

asset disposals

3 Diversify funding profile and

reduce costs

4 Manage for value focusing

on stakeholders return

Deliver improved profitability

BUSINESS TARGETS FINANCIAL TARGETS

Page 9: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Adjusted EBITDA projected evolution (€m)

45

194

Medium Term Margins* FX*

40

Performance FY14

417

Margins Operations FY13

178

Operational improvements rebased profitability; together with capex normalisation

redefine cash flow profile; refining macro provides positive outlook

8 (*) $1/bbl sensitivity in margins results to €80m, assuming planned utilisation of refineries and €/$ at 1.2

(**) Assuming ΔWC=0

FCC margin

($2.4/ bbl)

450-700 Medium term

performance

driven by refining

margins

FCC margin

($3.4/ bbl)

(Elefsina,

competiteveness, sales

volumes)

Does not

include

contribution

from

Associates 30-50

112

521

675709

614

Stay in business capex

2015P 2014

136

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Pre Tax Free

Cash Flow

EBITDA Capex

400-700

(100-150)

250-550

Capex evolution 2009-2015 (€m) Cash Flow profile pro-forma** (€m)

Page 10: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

54%

76% 81% 85%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

5

10

15

20

2011 2012 2013 2014

Exports Domestic sales Utilisation rate**

30

8

12

30

19

Total

51

Exports

5

PetChems Int’l*

8

Aviation &

Bunkering*

Domestic

market*

Refining

38

Source: Wood Mackenzie

2018 Net cash margin projection, Med basin refineries

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

(*) Includes both trading & marketing

(**) Note on utilisation rate: 2011-1H12 Elefsina Refinery was not operating due to its upgrade project 9

Elefsina Refinery and new business model Stabilisation of Elefsina operations (>100% utilisation), leads to business model transformation

towards exports with significant benefits (risk profile, economics, working capital)

European Med refineries Net Cash margins

Elefsina

Elefsina Refinery utilisation (%)

80

95

8376

2H14 1H14 2H13 1H13 Q412

> 100%

Refining Sales breakdown (mMT’)

High Low None

Group Gross margin breakdown (%)

Greek market: contribution 21%

49%

Page 11: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

10

COMPETITIVENESS IMPROVEMENTS €89m incremental benefits in 2014; positive impact evident in a number of KPIs, as well

as international benchmarking

Group Headcount

2009

-36%

2010 2014 2013 2012 2011 2008

COMO network sales share

- Domestic Marketing

2013

3x

2014 2012 2011 2010

ELPE positioning in Solomon benchmarking*

(*) Global benchmarking study conducted on a bi-annual basis; results displayed for C&S Europe (31 refineries)

BEST80 savings (% over spent)

16

9

2014 2009

Page 12: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2020+ 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015

Capital structure Emphasis throughout 2014 on liquidity risk management vs funding cost; full utilisation of

credit facilities and max cash balance preservation through working capital management

11%

38%

30%

Banks (committed)

21%

EIB

DCM

Banks (uncommitted)

FY14 Gross debt by source

Total:

€3.0bn

DCM

FY14 Maturity Profile

Gross Debt (€bn)

Cash (€bn)

1.00.91.0

0.6

DCM

Cashflow & ΔWC

2014

1.8

2013 2012 2011 2010

2.72.82.7

2.4

2013

3.0

2014

DCM

2012 2011 2010

2015-16: c. €400m

11

Page 13: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Contents

• Introduction – Group Overview

• Strategy update

• Industry & market developments

• Strategic business units (SBUs)

• Appendix

12

Page 14: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Recent Industry developments Recent improvement in European refining environment driven by regional crude supply

and global demand dynamics

13

• European refining margins benefited from improved Atlantic basin crude supply conditions (production

growth in US, as well as Iraq)

• Higher gasoline demand in US and emerging markets; diesel demand growth positive (IMO & Asian

markets)

• Challenges from regional overcapacity and additional product flows from Middle East remain

• Weak crude prices and stronger USD positive for refiners, despite one-off inventory impact

Med complex margins - $/bbl (2012-2015)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Hydrocracking

FCC

4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3Q12 2Q12 1Q12 1Q15*

Med FCC margins:

2.4

$/bbl

3.4

(*) Data updated as of 1st March 2015

Page 15: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

2,8372,518

2,2242,066

3,353

2,932

2,883

1,983

1,159

953

805

765

-42%

MOGAS

ADO

HGO

LPG & Others

2012

7,727

2,913

2011

9,267

3,355

2010

10,125

3,722

2009

11,413

4,064

Domestic market environment First year of growth in fuels demand post Greek crisis, driven by heating GO recovery as well

as auto fuels consumption in 2H

(*) Does not include PPC and armed forces

Source: Ministry of Production Restructuring, Environment and Energy

Domestic Market demand* 2009 – 2014 (MT ‘000)

2,248 2,375

930 972

751 820

1%

2014

6,697

2,530

2013

6,599

2,670

+9%

+5%

+6%

-5%

1,860

1,5801,5121,645

1,982

1,6251,5021,588

3Q

-1% +3% -3%

+7%

4Q 2Q 1Q

2014 2013

14

Page 16: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

15

Contents

• Introduction - Group overview

• Strategy update

• Industry & market developments

• Strategic Business Units (SBUs)

• Appendix

Page 17: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Aviation &

Bunkering

C&I (Construction,

wholesale)

Retail

16

Greek petroleum market overview and route to market Leading domestic market position through vertical integration and competitive logistics

assets; well positioned to capture Greek recovery

3rd party

Imports

60-65% 25-30%

0-10%

Greek Refining capacity: 25MT

Domestic market: 11.5MT

ELPE Group

subsidiaries: 3MT

(30%)

MOH Group

subsidiaries: 2MT

(20%)

Independent

marketing

companies: 5MT

(40%)

ELPE exports: 6-8MT

3rd party exports:

5MT

16MT

ELPE Group

subsidiaries: 1-2MT

9%

10%

8%

21%

8%

21%

22% Fuel Oil

Greek market product breakdown

Specialty markets

(PPC, public sector):

1.5MT (10%)

Gasoline

Diesel

Gasoil Jet

Bunkers

Other

Page 18: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Greek Refining, Supply & Trading economics Trading activity in domestic and international markets complements refining returns;

export sales accounting for 50% of total

Markets

(sales premia varying

across channels)

Refining

(Med benchmark returns

& operations performance)

Imported Products

(0.5-1.5m MT)

Aviation & Bunkering

(Med competitive pricing)

Exports, Intra-Group

(Platts Med FOB based + premia)

Domestic market

5.5 MT

2.5 MT

Exports, 3rd parties

(Platts Med FOB based)

2.0 MT

5.0 MT

Aspropyrgos

NCI 9.7

148kbpd

FCC

Thessaloniki

NCI 6.9

95kbpd

Hydroskimming

Elefsina

NCI 11.3

100kbpd

HDC

16 MT

0.5-1.5 MT

$ / €

Total ELPE capacity

12%

55%

25%

8%

Fuel oil Middle Distillates

Gasoline Other

17

Refined Products

(14.0m MT) $ $ $

11%

89%

High sulphur

Low sulphur

25%

8%

55%

12%

Other

Gasoline Fuel Oil

Middle Distillates

Page 19: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Marketing Leading position in the Greek market with EKO and BP brands; subsidiaries in

neighboring markets increase downstream integration; selective expansion to increase

network control

Auto-fuels domestic market share

evolution (%)

Domestic Retail network evolution (# PS)

International Marketing: Regional footprint

30

15

2012 (post BP

acquisition)

2008 (EKO only)

International Marketing: Sales volumes evolution (MT)

194 220 222 336 367

126152 150

117 115

256243 237

215 211

375

126

209

1,072

2013

379

2012

1,072

404

2011

1,041

433

2010

1,051

436

2009

1,014

438

1,079

2014

369

CY BU JPK SER

18

1,175 1,078 1,041 982 942 900

1,170 1,108

981 949

874 816

2,345 2,186

2,022 1,931 1,816

1,716

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EKO HF

Page 20: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Petrochemicals Operations centred on vertical integration for higher value product; trading geared to

exports markets

Polypropylene value chain

Propylene (refinery grade)

Propylene splitter

90%

Thessaloniki PP plant

(220 kt)

PP

Imports

10%

Propylene (polymer grade)

10%

90%

Domestic and international

market

BOPP film plant (26kt)

Position:

• Competitive advantage in polypropylene - vertical

integration exceeding 85% of total production

• Exports account for >60% of total sales; strong

export markets in Turkey, Italy and East Med

• Domestic market share in petchems exceeds 50% in

all products, produced or traded

Targets:

• Increase propylene production capturing propane

conversion value

• Exploit niche markets:

– Increase PP resin grade portfolio and BOPP film

types with tangible cash benefits

– Add new plastics

• Leverage regional positioning and in-market

presence to increase trading

19

Page 21: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Power: second largest IPP in Greece; development of a renewable energy

portfolio

Thisvi 420MW CCGT power plant

Consolidated as Associate

• Elpedison BV, is a 50/50 JV between Hellenic

Petroleum and Edison, Italy’s 2nd largest electricity

producer and gas distributor (EdF Group)

– Owns 75% of 810MW of installed CCGT

capacity: a 390MW plant in Thessaloniki and a

420MW in Thisvi

– Increasing power trading & marketing,

considering credit exposure

• Energy market in Greece under restructuring;

current model targets system stability during a

transitional phase

• Renewables portfolio target > 100MW (wind, PV,

biomass) subject to fiscal environment and market

developments

20

Page 22: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

21

Gas: 35% participation in DEPA, Greece’s incumbent gas company (in sale

process)

DEPA

– Long-term contracts on pipe gas (Russian & Azeri) and

capacity rights on two in-bound interconnecting pipelines

– Long-term contracts with power generators, eligible

industrial customers and existing EPAs

– Owns 51% of the local supply companies (EPAs), with

rights until 2036

DESFA (RAB)

– Greece’s gas grid and LNG import terminal owner and

operator

– International pipelines: Participation in Greece-Bulgaria

Interconnector

• SPA for sale of 66% of DESFA to SOCAR for €400m signed

on 21 Dec 2013; regulatory approvals in process for

completion of transaction

DEPA snapshot financials (€m)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014

EBITDA 240 166 211 288 287 196 126

Net Income 120 61 91 191 197 147 83

* Adjusted for settlement with PPC

Natural gas transmission network

DEPA Volumes 2007-14 (bcm)

Consolidated as Associate

2007 2008 2009 2014 2013

4.3

2010

3.8

3.0

3.8

2012

4.0

2011

3.3

4.2

3.6

Page 23: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

22

Contents

• Introduction - Group overview

• Strategy update

• Industry & market developments

• Strategic business units (SBUs)

• Appendix

Page 24: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

23

Key Milestones Transforming stand-alone government controlled Greek companies to a leading private

sector regional energy player

PETROLA ( Elefsina

Refinery)

DEP &

DEPEKY (Greek E&P)

ELDA ( Aspropyrgos

Refinery)

ESSO -

PAPPAS ( Thessaloniki

Refinery)

PETROLA

(Elefsina

Refinery)

DEP &

DEPEKY (Greek E&P)

ELDA ( Aspropyrgos

Refinery)

ESSO -

PAPPAS ( Thessaloniki

Refinery)

1998 1960 –

1998 2003 2007 2008 2009 2014

Elpedison: 50/50 JV

with Italy’s Edison,

in Power

Libyan upstream

concessions sold to

GDF Suez for $170m

2010

Thessaloniki Refinery

upgrade completed

Sale of 70% stake in

W. Obayed upstream

concession in Egypt

Acquisition of BP’s

Ground Fuels business

in Greece

Merger with

Petrola

Hellas

Elpedison’s 2nd CCGT

Plant (420MW) in

commercial operation

Shareholding events

Listing of

new Group in

ASE/LSE

Greek Government

announces its

intention to divest

its shareholding in

ELPE

2011

Agreement to

DESFA sale for

€212m

Elefsina

upgraded refinery

start up

POIH becomes

strategic investor

with 25% stake

Float 21%

Greek State

36%

POIH 43%

2012 2013

Issue of €500m

Eurobond

Acceleration of

transformation

programs achieving

c.90m of benefits

Issue of €325m and

$400m Eurobond

Page 25: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

24

Regional market – Diesel shortage in the Med ELPE middle distillates yield match expected increasing shortage in the region

-178

-103

-65 -28

-40

-40

-10 -11

-20

-6

-5

-18

-195

-34

-55

-16

-13

-87

+4

+8

+9

PORTUGAL

GIBRALTAR

MOROCCO

SPAIN

MED FRANCE

ALGERIA

TUNISIA MALTA

ITALY

CROATIA

SLOVENIA

SERBIA

BOSNIA

FYROM

ALBANIA

GREECE

MONTENEGRO

TURKEY

LIBYA

EGYPT ISRAEL

LEBANON

SYRIA

CYPRUS

Diesel/Gasoil surplus (2020)

Diesel/Gasoil deficit (2020)

Key DIESEL/GASOIL balances in the Med region, kb/d (2020)

-59

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Page 26: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

25

Group Key financials: 2004 – 2014 Strong track record of consistent delivery and balance sheet resilience

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other one-off non-operating items and special income taxes

€ million, IFRS (Published) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Income Statement Figures

Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 15,807 16,525 16,952 17,130 16,997 15,885 14,557 12,528 12,796 12,696 13,538

Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 4,793 4,727 4,790 5,236 4,910 4,787 5,735 5,126 4,434 4,043 4,131

Net Sales 4,907 6,653 8,122 8,538 10,131 6,757 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 9,478

EBITDA 372 671 502 617 249 390 501 335 298 29 -84

Adjusted EBITDA* 400 466 526 458 513 362 474 363 444 178 417

Net Income 128 334 260 351 24 175 180 114 86 -269 -365

Adjusted Net Income* 149 191 277 232 216 150 205 137 232 -117 5

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Items

Capital Employed 2,335 2,956 3,442 3,557 3,153 3,927 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 2,870

Net Debt 386 699 1,044 977 679 1,419 1,629 1,687 1,855 1,689 1,140

Capital Expenditure 295 185 145 195 338 614 709 675 521 112 136

Free Cash flow -122 -182 -177 204 512 -561 17 165 25 404 770

Dividend (€/share) 0.26 0.43 0.43 0.50 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.15 n/a n/a

Key drivers

Brent crude ($/bbl) 38.0 55.2 68.1 72.9 98.3 62.6 80.3 111.0 111.7 108.7 99.0

FCC cracking Med margins ($/bbl) 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.8 3.7 4.4 2.9 4.7 2.4 3.4

€/$ 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33

Page 27: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

€ million, IFRS 4Q FY

2013 2014 Δ% 2013 2014 Δ%

Income Statement

Sales Volume (MT) - Refining 2,915 3,981 37% 12,696 13,538 7%

Sales Volume (MT) - Marketing 967 1,075 11% 4,043 4,131 2%

Net Sales 2,227 2,383 7% 9,674 9,478 -2%

Segmental EBITDA

- Refining, Supply & Trading 24 133 - 57 253 -

- Petrochemicals 11 25 - 57 81 41%

- Marketing 12 15 31% 68 90 31%

- Other -2 -2 26% -5 -7 -25%

Adjusted EBITDA * 45 171 - 178 417 -

Share of operating profit of associates ** 7 6 -15% 57 28 -51%

Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) -13 121 - 11 240 -

Finance costs - net -53 -49 6% -209 -215 -3%

Adjusted Net Income * -35 53 - -117 5 -

IFRS Reported EBITDA -11 -206 - 29 -84 -

IFRS Reported Net Income -98 -227 - -269 -365 -36%

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow

Capital Employed 3,905 2,870 -26%

Net Debt 1,689 1,140 -33%

Capital Expenditure 55 51 -8% 112 136 22%

4Q14 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items

(**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group

+37%

4Q14

4,0

4Q13

2,9

Refining sales volume (m MT)

171

45

+280%

4Q14 4Q13

Adj. EBITDA (€m)

136

112

+22%

FY14 FY13

Capex (€m)

26

Page 28: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

4Q14 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Record high 4Q results; Adj. EBITDA at €171m (€45m LY) and Adj. Net Income at €53m (-€35m LY)

resulting in a clean EPS of €0.17; All business units reported improved performance; IFRS results

affected by inventory impact from crude oil price drop

• Historical high refining production (4m MT) on the back of improved refining economics and high

mechanical availability; exports reached 2m MT as Group’s business is now 50% non-Greek related

• Refining operating costs per bbl 30% lower vs LY; competitiveness improvement projects contributed

€24m in 4Q14

• Controllable cashflow improvement q-o-q, on improved results and normalised capex

• Enhanced HSE performance, with safety indices improved y-o-y

• Stronger balance sheet; further improvement of financing terms and reduced cost, despite challenging

environment

• Distribution of €0.21/share approved in December

27

Page 29: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

112

103 110 109 108 110

102

76 1.32

1.31 1.33

1.36 1.37 1.37

1.33

1.25

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Brent EURUSD

INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Crude oil price collapse on supply surplus; strongest USD in 8 years favors € reporting

refiners; sweet-sour differentials affected by crude availability in the region ICE Brent ($/bbl)

EURUSD Exchange Rate ($/€)

28

01/10/14

1.26

2013 2014

4Q 1.36 1.25

FY 1.33 1.33

2013 2014

Y/E 110 55

4Q 109 76

FY 109 99

01/10/14

94.6

31/12/14

55.0

31/12/14

1.21

• Increased supply, especially for

light/sweet grades, led prices to a 5-

year low; further drop recorded post

Y/E

• Improved US macro and QE

expectations in Europe led to stronger

USD

• Med sweet-sour spreads wider y-o-y,

despite reduced Russian exports

• Brent – WTI spread tighter q-o-q; diesel

arbitrage closed for part of 4Q14

ICE Brent ($/bbl) and EUR/USD

18.2

9.1

3.8

11.8

9.4

6.7 6.2

4.0

1.2 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.8

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

Brent-WTI Brent - Urals

Crude differentials ($/bbl)

Page 30: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

Product Cracks* ($/bbl)

0

5

10

15

12

14

16

18

Hydrocracking

INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Improved product cracks y-o-y and weak crude prices (affecting energy costs) led recovery of

benchmark margins to 2-year highs

Med benchmark margins ($/bbl)

MOGAS

HSFO

ULSD

(*) Brent based. A revision of benchmark margins post Elefsina and feed changes is in progress.

Naphtha

FCC

2.4

1.01.0

3.5

4.1

3.4

4.94.6

2.31.7

1Q 2Q FY

+40%

3Q 4Q

2013 2014

3.7

4.7

2.92.4

4.7 4.5

5.55.1

3.2

4.1

2Q

+22%

4Q 3Q 1Q FY

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

2013 2014

-15

-10

-5

0

29

Page 31: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

-2 -2

24

133

11

FX 20

25

30

8

25

23

20

12

15

CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 4Q 2014 Refining economics confirm strategic rationale for Elefsina upgrade, while operational

improvements across all businesses deliver increased profitability

Adjusted EBITDA causal track 4Q14 vs 4Q13 (€m)

171 �

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Other

(incl. E&P) Other

(incl. E&P)

Environment

Performance

4Q13

Elefsina Supply 4Q14

Performance

improvements

Benchmark

Refining

Margins

Sales

Volume

30

Page 32: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

57

253

57

81

68

45

73

87

25

90

-5

9

-7

CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 2014 2H refinery environment added to operational improvements achieved, leading to a “turn-

around” of Group performance

Adjusted EBITDA causal track FY14 vs FY13 (€m)

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Other

(incl. E&P) Other

(incl. E&P)

417 �

FY13 Elefsina Sales

Volume Other FY14

Performance

improvements Benchmark

Refining

Margins

Environment

Performance

31

Page 33: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

CASH FLOW PROFILE Improved performance and normalised Capex generate operating cashflow for deleveraging

while business model and improved international supply conditions and liquidity allow more

effective working capital management

Free Cashflow from Operations (Adj. EBITDA less capex- €m)

Working Capital Release FY14 vs FY13 (€bn)

120121

1227

-11

55

-6

28

4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13

Working Capital KPI*s

45

30

10

Stock days

(incl. CSO)

DPO DSO

0.2

0.3

1.0

0.5

FY14 Payment terms Volume

(incl. CSO)

Price (Inv.

& A/R)

(*) Indicative days for incremental volume (assuming 50-50 domestic-exports)

32

Page 34: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS GROUP PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT

(*) Includes derecognition of Elefsina project hedges (non recurring) and VRS scheme implemented in 4Q13

(**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group

IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 4Q FY

€ MILLION 2013 2014 Δ % 2013 2014 Δ %

Sales 2,227 2,383 7% 9,674 9,478 (2%)

Cost of sales (2,134) (2,522) (18%) (9,369) (9,334) 0%

Gross profit 94 (139) - 305 145 (53%)

Selling, distribution and administrative expenses (119) (129) (8%) (448) (440) 2%

Exploration expenses (1) (2) - (3) (4) (43%)

Other operating (expenses) / income - net* (49) 8 - (50) 11 -

Operating profit (loss) (75) (262) - (195) (289) (48%)

Finance costs - net (53) (49) 6% (209) (215) (3%)

Currency exchange gains /(losses) (1) 1 - 9 (9) -

Share of operating profit of associates** 7 6 (15%) 57 28 (51%)

Profit before income tax (122) (305) - (338) (485) (43%)

Income tax expense / (credit) 23 77 - 66 116 77%

Profit for the period (98) (228) - (272) (369) (35%)

Minority Interest 0 1 - 3 3 0%

Net Income (Loss) (98) (227) - (269) (365) (36%)

Basic and diluted EPS (in €) (0.32) (0.74) - (0.88) (1.20) (36%)

Reported EBITDA (11) (206) - 29 (84) -

33

Page 35: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS REPORTED VS ADJUSTED EBITDA

(€ million) 4Q FY

2013 2014 2013 2014

Reported EBITDA -11 -206 29 -84

Inventory effect 6 375 70 484

One-offs 49 2 79 17

Adjusted EBITDA 45 171 178 417

34

Page 36: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS GROUP BALANCE SHEET

(*) 35% share of DEPA Group book value (consolidated as an associate)

IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FY FY

€ MILLION 2013 2014

Non-current assets

Tangible and Intangible assets 3,607 3,530

Investments in affiliated companies* 692 682

Other non-current assets 172 313

4,470 4,526Current assets

Inventories 1,005 638

Trade and other receivables 743 708

Cash and cash equivalents 960 1,848

2,707 3,194

Total assets 7,177 7,719

Shareholders equity 2,099 1,618

Minority interest 116 110

Total equity 2,214 1,729

Non- current liabilities

Borrowings 1,312 1,812

Other non-current liabilities 164 162

1,475 1,974Current liabilities

Trade and other payables 2,125 2,739

Borrowings 1,338 1,178

Other current liabilities 24 100

3,488 4,017

Total liabilities 4,963 5,991

Total equity and liabilities 7,177 7,719

35

Page 37: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS GROUP CASH FLOW

IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FY FY

€ MILLION 2013 2014

Cash flows from operating activities

Cash generated from operations 501 876

Income and other taxes paid (9) (23)

Net cash (used in) / generated from operating activities 493 853

Cash flows from investing activities

Purchase of property, plant and equipment & intangible assets (105) (136)

Acquisition of subsidiary (7) -

Sale of property, plant and equipment & intangible assets 4 5

Sale of subsidiary - -

Grants received

Interest received 8 9

Investments in associates - -

Dividends received 13 39

Participation in share capital (increase)/ decrease of associates (3) -

Net cash used in investing activities (90) (83)

Cash flows from financing activities

Interest paid (184) (197)

Dividends paid (46) (2)

Proceeds from borrowings 1,276 1,112

Repayment of borrowings (1,384) (828)

Net cash generated from / (used in ) financing activities (339) 85

Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents 64 855

Cash & cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 901 960

Exchange gains/(losses) on cash & cash equivalents (6) 34

Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents 64 855

Cash & cash equivalents at end of the period 959 1,848

36

Page 38: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items

4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS – I

4Q FY

€ million, IFRS 2013 2014 Δ% 2013 2014 Δ%

Reported EBITDA

Refining, Supply & Trading -18 -232 - -80 -233 -

Marketing 2 7 - 63 80 26%

Petrochemicals 9 20 - 53 76 43%

Core Business -6 -205 - 36 -77 -

Other (incl. E&P) -5 -1 70% -8 -6 18%

Total -11 -206 - 29 -84 -

Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group 27 18 -31% 102 73 -28%

Adjusted EBITDA (*)

Refining, Supply & Trading 24 133 - 57 253 -

Marketing 12 15 30% 68 90 31%

Petrochemicals 11 25 - 57 81 41%

Core Business 47 173 - 183 423 -

Other (incl. E&P) -2 -1 39% -5 -6 -19%

Total 45 171 - 178 417 -

Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group 27 18 -31% 102 73 -28%

Adjusted EBIT (*)

Refining, Supply & Trading -23 93 - -97 114 -

Marketing -3 2 - 13 37 -

Petrochemicals 11 22 - 45 69 54%

Core Business -16 117 - -39 220 -

Other (incl. E&P) -3 -2 30% -7 -9 -27%

Total -19 115 - -46 211 -

Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group (adjusted) 7 6 -15% 57 28 -51%

37

Page 39: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS – II

4Q FY

€ million, IFRS 2013 2014 Δ% 2013 2014 Δ%

Volumes (M/T'000)

Refining, Supply & Trading 2,915 3,981 37% 12,696 13,538 7%

Marketing 967 1,075 11% 4,043 4,131 2%

Petrochemicals 72 64 -11% 295 236 -20%

Total - Core Business 3,954 5,119 29% 17,035 17,905 5%

Sales

Refining, Supply & Trading 2,060 2,217 8% 9,078 8,818 -3%

Marketing 781 741 -5% 3,345 3,220 -4%

Petrochemicals 83 84 0% 327 322 -1%

Core Business 2,925 3,042 4% 12,750 12,361 -3%

Intersegment & other -698 -659 6% -3,076 -2,882 6%

Total 2,227 2,383 7% 9,674 9,478 -2%

Capital Employed

Refining, Supply & Trading 2,248 1,344 -40%

Marketing 775 657 -15%

Petrochemicals 129 164 27%

Core Business 3,152 2,165 -31%

Associates (Power & Gas) 692 682 -1%

Other (incl. E&P) 62 23 -63%

Total 3,905 2,870 -26%

38

Page 40: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

39

Glossary of Key Terms

Adjusted EBITDA Reported EBITDA adjusted by inventory effect (impact of the fluctuation of crude prices on BS inventories

and on the value of products sold during the related period) and other one-off non recurring items

CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracking

HDC Hydrocracking

HS Hydroskimming

HSFO High Sulfur Fuel Oil

IPP Independent Power Producer

Leverage ratio Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (including associates share of net income)

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

NatGas Natural Gas

Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) An index assessing the refinery conversion capacity by relating each processing unit capacity against the

crude distillation capacity and applying weighting factor.

Pro forma leverage ratio Net Debt (excluding debt equal to investment in associates ) / Adjusted EBITDA

Pro forma leverage on mid cycle

historical EBITDA (2010-2012 avg)

Net Debt (excluding investment in associates ) / Adjusted EBITDA(2010-2012 avg)

POIH Paneuropean Oil and Industrial Holdings (POIH)

PP Polypropylene

Solomon Comlexity Index Compares the relative refining configuration apart from throughput capacity. It is the total of EDC

(Equivalent Distillation Capacity) divided by the sum of the crude unit stream-day capacities.

ULSD Ultra-low-sulphur diesel (ULSD)

Page 41: UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference · 2015-03-20 · International Marketing: Regional footprint 30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only) International Marketing: Sales volumes

40

Disclaimer

Forward looking statements

Hellenic Petroleum do not in general publish forecasts regarding their future financial

results. The financial forecasts contained in this document are based on a series of

assumptions, which are subject to the occurrence of events that can neither be

reasonably foreseen by Hellenic Petroleum, nor are within Hellenic Petroleum's control.

The said forecasts represent management's estimates, and should be treated as mere

estimates. There is no certainty that the actual financial results of Hellenic Petroleum

will be in line with the forecasted ones.

In particular, the actual results may differ (even materially) from the forecasted ones

due to, among other reasons, changes in the financial conditions within Greece,

fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and oil products in general, as well as fluctuations

in foreign currencies rates, international petrochemicals prices, changes in supply and

demand and changes of weather conditions. Consequently, it should be stressed that

Hellenic Petroleum do not, and could not reasonably be expected to, provide any

representation or guarantee, with respect to the creditworthiness of the forecasts.

This presentation also contains certain financial information and key performance

indicators which are primarily focused at providing a “business” perspective and as a

consequence may not be presented in accordance with International Financial

Reporting Standards (IFRS).


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