UFE 2003 ANALYSIS

1 UFE 2003 AnalysisJune 1, 2005

UFE 2003 ANALYSIS

Compiled by the Load Profiling GroupERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation

June 1, 2005


LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2003Based on True-up Settlement

This is a graph of load and UFE on the Peak Day in 2003.

ERCOT Load and UFE2003 Peak Day - August 7, 2003

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89

Interval

MW

H

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Per

cent

ERCOT LOAD

Percent UFE

UFE


UFE Basics

Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data

- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error

■ Losses -Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error

Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated

UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)


UFE Basics

Net Generation for Settlement Interval

Interval Data Energy Usage

Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data

Non-Metered Accounts

Losses:Transmission &

Distribution

UFEGAP - - - - - - >

Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup


DATA VERIFICATION IN THE SETTLEMENT PROCESS

UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.

Initial

Final

Settlement

True-Up

Initial Settlement(17 days after the trade day)

Final Settlement(59 days after the trade day)

True-up and Resettlement (6 months to up to several years after the trade day.)

The latest resettlement in each interval is used in the analysis for Initial, Final and True-Up.


UFE Mwh by Month

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Month of 2003

Mw

h

Jan AprMarFeb May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SR01


Cumulative UFE Mwh by Month

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Month of 2003

Mw

h

Jan AprMarFeb May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

SR02


STATISTICAL RESULTS

SR03

MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX

2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703 2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969

2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992 2003 857 759 0 3,906

2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233 2002 1,666 1,579 0 5,654

2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996 2003 711 603 0 3,728

2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248 2002 838 771 0 3,803

2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095 2003 672 528 0 4,065

MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX

2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673 2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8

2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798 2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4

2002 -1,593 -1,575 -5,954 3,427 2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5

2003 -14 -126 -3,172 3,728 2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4

2002 -461 -556 -3,371 3,803 2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5

2003 191 71 -2,886 4,065 2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9

LOAD (MW)

INITIAL

FINAL

UFE (MW)

LOAD (MW)

TRUE UP

UFE (MW)

|UFE| (MW)

TRUE UP

UFE (MW)

|UFE| (MW)

TRUE UP

FINAL

|UFE| (MW)

INITIAL

LOAD (MW)

INITIAL

UFE as PERCENT of LOAD

INITIAL

FINAL


TRUE UP


FINAL


STATISTICAL RESULTS CONTINUED

2002 UFE has a negative bias across all settlements.

2003 UFE has a negative bias for Initial and final Settlement, positive bias for True-up.

2003 UFE for True-up has a mean of 0.5% and a median of 0.2% as compared to -1.6% and -1.8% respectively for 2002.

Mean and Median UFE values are similar indicating the UFE distributions are not skewed.

From Initial to Final thru True-Up settlements, UFE gets closer to 0 indicating more complete usage data improves UFE.

SR04

MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX

2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1

2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7

2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6

2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3

2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8

2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9

|UFE as PERCENT of Load|

INITIAL



TRUE UP

FINAL


Generation Differences Between Initial and Final Settlements

8.4% of the intervals had Initial to Final differences greater than 100 MW

Differences greater than 300 MW occurred for 1.0 % of the intervals

GDF01


Generation Differences Between Final and True-Up Settlements

GDF02

5.5% of the intervals had Final to True-Up differences greater than 100 MW



Generation Differences Between Initial and True-Up Settlements

GDF03

12.4% of the intervals had Initial to True-Up differences greater than 100 MW



GDF04

Change in Generation between Settlements

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

-0.05 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.75 1.25

Percent Change in Gen Mwh

Perc

en

t o

f In

terv

als

Initial to Final

Final to True-Up


UFE shifts in a positive direction from Initial to Final.

UFD01

2003 Percent Distribution of UFE MW – Initial to Final

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

UFE (MW)

Perc

en

t E

RC

OT

To

tal

UF

E

Initial Final


2003 Percent Distribution of UFE MW - Final to True-Up

UFE continues to move in a positive direction from Final to True-Up.

UFD02

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

UFE (MW)

Per

cen

t E

RC

OT

To

tal U

FE

Final True-Up


2003 Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

The UFE percent moves in a positive direction from Initial to Final thru True-Up.

UFD03

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

-10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2003

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad Initial

Final

True-Up


Statistical Studies by Week – Initial Settlement95% Confidence Interval

CIP01

UFE Percent of ERCOT LoadWeekly for 2003

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile

Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat


Statistical Studies by Week – Final Settlement95% Confidence Interval

CIP02


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile



Statistical Studies by Week – True-Up Settlement95% Confidence Interval

CIP03


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile



CIP04

Statistical Studies by Week – Median Comparison95% Confidence Interval

UFE Percent of ERCOT Load

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

Initial

Final

TrueUp

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat


Statistical Studies by Week General Observations

The UFE Percent of ERCOT Load graphs indicate UFE as a percent of load varies over a wide range between the Median, the 5th Percentile and 95th Percentile.

The difference between the Median, the 5th Percentile and 95th Percentile decreases from Initial to Final through True-Up settlements.

For all settlements there is a well-defined cyclical component across all days of the week. UFE is negative during the off-peak hours and positive during on-peak hours.

Median values move in a positive direction from Initial to Final through True-Up settlements across all days of the week indicating settlements based on more complete usage data result in a reduction in the over-estimation of load.

CIP05


Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2003UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA01

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

ER

CO

T L

oa

d (

MW

)

Initial Final True-Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses



Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2003UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA02

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)




Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2003UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA03

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)




Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2003UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load

SEA04

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

ER

CO

T L

oad

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)




SEA05

Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad

Spring Summer Fall Winter



SEA06

Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad




SEA07

Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True-Up SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erce

nt

of

Lo

ad




Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadInitial Settlement

MPL01

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000

ERCOT Load (MW)

Pe

rce

nt

UF

E

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile

Regression on Total Aggregated Load


Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadFinal Settlement

MPL02

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

19000 24000 29000 34000 39000 44000 49000 54000 59000

ERCOT Load (MW)

Per

cen

t U

FE

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile



Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadTrue-Up Settlement

MPL03

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000

ERCOT Load (MW)

Per

cen

t U

FE

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile



Comparison of Median Percent UFEInitial, Final and True-Up Up Settlements

MPL04

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000

ERCOT Load (MW)

Per

cen

t U

FE

Initial

Final

True Up


General ObservationsPercent UFE vs ERCOT Load

UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)

There is a statistically significant relationship between load and UFE.

There is wide variability between the median, 5th and 95th percentiles of percent UFE for initial and final settlements. Variability decreases dramatically for the true up settlements.

As load increases, median UFE for all settlements moves in a positive direction indicating (Load + Losses) are over estimated at low load intervals and are progressively more under estimated as load increases.

UFE shifts in a positive direction from initial to final thru true-Up settlements indicating settlements based on more complete usage data result in a reduction in the over-estimation of load.

UFE is closest to zero between 30,000 to 40,000 MW. UFE for Initial settlement becomes worse than UFE for Final settlement at approximately 38,000 MW of ERCOT load. Similarly, UFE for Final settlement becomes worse than UFE for True-Up at approximately 34,000 MW of ERCOT load.

MPL05


There is a well-defined cyclical component across all days of the week however the UFE cycles are out of phase with the load cycles as illustrated in the graph below.

General Observations ContinuedPercent UFE versus ERCOT Load

MPL06

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Day of the Week

UF

E P

erc

en

t o

f E

RC

OT

Lo

ad

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

ER

CO

T L

oad

(M

W)

Initial Final True-Up ERCOT Load



Percent Transmission Plus Distribution Losses versus Total ERCOT Load

MPL07

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000

ERCOT Load (MW)

Per

cen

t L

oss

es

median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile

Note: Percent losses includes distribution plus transmission losses.


MPL08

Percent Distribution Losses versus Total ERCOT Load – NOIE Load – Transmission Losses

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

16000 20000 24000 28000 32000 36000 40000 44000

Total ERCOT Load - NOIE Load - Trans Losses (MW)

Per

cen

t D

istr

ibu

tio

n L

oss

es

Median

5th Percentile

95th Percentile


MPL09

Percent Transmission Losses versus Total ERCOT Actual Load

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000

Total ERCOT Actual Load

Pe

rce

nt

Tra

ns

mis

sio

n L

os

se

s

Spring Median

Summer Median

Fall Median

Winter Median

Annual Median


UFE costs are calculated by multiplying the UFE (MWH) times the Market Clearing Price for Load (MCPEL)($/MWH) for each 15-minute interval in 2003.

MCPEL is a function of Congestion Zone. MCPEL is the same across all Congestion Zones if there is no congestion.

The means of dollars indicate relative magnitude. The sums of dollars indicate where dollars are going.

The CM Zones for 2003 are: Houston, North, South and West

UFE cost values per interval are calculated for: positive and negative UFE the absolute value of UFE the net value of UFE.

Median UFE cost studies include: Seasonal as defined in the Profile Assignment Decision Tree

Spring: March 1 – April 30 Summer: May 1 – September 30 Fall: October 1 – November 30 Winter: December 1 – February 28

Monthly Hour of the week.

UFE Cost Analysis by Congestion Management Zone

UCT01


UFE Cost by Month and CMZone

UCT02

UFE Cost by Month - CMZone: Houston 03

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month of 2003

Do

lla

rs

Positive UFE

Negative UFE

Net UFE

UFE Cost by Month - CMZone: North 03

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

llars

Positive UFE

Negative UFE

Net UFE

UFE Cost by Month - CMZone: South 03

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

llars

Positive UFE

Negative UFE

Net UFE

UFE Cost by Month - CMZone: West 03

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

lla

rs

Positive UFE

Negative UFE

Net UFE


UFE Cost by Month across all CMZones

UFE Cost by Month Across All CMZones

-20,000,000

-10,000,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

llars

Positive UFE

Negative UFE

Net UFE

UCT03


Absolute ValueUFE Cost by Month and CMZone

UCT04

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

lla

rs

West 03

South 03

North 03

Houston 03

CMZone:


Net UFE Cost by Month and CMZone

UCT05

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

lla

rs

West 03

South 03

North 03

Houston 03

CMZone:


ERCOT Total Cumulative UFE Cost across the Year

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000


Month of 2003

Do

llars

ABS(UFE Dollars)

Net(UFE Dollars)

Total ABSUFE = $307,049,607Total Net UFE = $156,733,428

UCT06


Sum of Dollars from Positive UFE

UCT07

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs

H03 N03 S03 W03 Total



Sum of Dollars from Negative UFE

UCT08

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

Day of the Week

Do

llar

s




UCT09

Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars




Sum of Dollars from Net UFE

UCT10

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Day of the Week

Do

llar

s




UCT11

SUM of UFE Dollars – All SeasonsPositive and Negative UFE

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Spring: March 1 - April 30

MCPE = 167.32 $/MW

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Summer: May 1 - Sept 30

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Dol

lars

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30

MCPE = $428.27

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)


Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28

MCPE = 990 $/MW


SUM of UFE Dollars – SpringPositive and Negative UFE

UCT12

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)



MCPE = 167.32 $/MW


UCT13

SUM of UFE Dollars – SummerPositive and Negative UFE

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)




UCT14

SUM of UFE Dollars – FallPositive and Negative UFE

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)



MCPE = $428.27


UCT15

SUM of UFE Dollars – WinterPositive and Negative UFE

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs

SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)



MCPE = 990 $/MW


UCT16

SUM of UFE Dollars – All SeasonsAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars

SUM[ABS(UFE)] SUM[Net(UFE)]


MCPE = 167.32 $/MW


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs




-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = $428.27


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = 990 $/MW


SUM of UFE Dollars – SpringAbsolute Value and Net UFE

UCT17


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs



MCPE = 167.32 $/MW


UCT18

SUM of UFE Dollars – SummerAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars




UCT19

SUM of UFE Dollars – FallAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = $428.27


UCT20

SUM of UFE Dollars – WinterAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = 990 $/MW


Mean of UFE Dollars – All SeasonsPositive and Negative UFE

UCT21

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs

Mean(+UFE) Mean(-UFE)



MCPE = $428.27


-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = 990 $/MW


-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = 497 $/MW

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs




MCPE = -1000 $/MW


UCT22

Mean of UFE Dollars – SpringPositive and Negative UFE


-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs



MCPE = 990 $/MW


UCT23

Mean of UFE Dollars – SummerPositive and Negative UFE

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars




MCPE = -1000 $/MW


UCT24

Mean of UFE Dollars – FallPositive and Negative UFE

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs




MCPE = $428.27


UCT25

Mean of UFE Dollars – WinterPositive and Negative UFE


-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Day of the Week

Do

llar

s



MCPE = 497 $/MW


Mean of UFE Dollars – All SeasonsAbsolute Value and Net UFE

UCT26


-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars

Mean[ABS(UFE)] Mean[Net(UFE)]


MCPE = $428.27


-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs



MCPE = 990 $/MW


-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs



MCPE = 497 $/MW


-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = -1000 $/MW


UCT27

Mean of UFE Dollars – SpringAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs



MCPE = 990 $/MW


UCT28

Mean of UFE Dollars – SummerAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Day of the Week

Do

lla

rs



MCPE = -1000 $/MW


UCT29

Mean of UFE Dollars – FallAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = $428.27


UCT30

Mean of UFE Dollars – WinterAbsolute Value and Net UFE


-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Day of the Week

Do

llars



MCPE = 497 $/MW


RESULTS and CONCLUSIONS

The total dollars for the absolute value of UFE in 2003 amounted to $307 million. The net UFE amounted to $157 million.

During 2003, there was a strong daily cyclical component to median UFE (related to load).

Median UFE tends to be negative during the off-peak intervals and positive during on-peak intervals. This pattern is similar for all days of the week.

Median UFE tends to be negative during low load intervals and moves in a positive direction as load increases.

Median UFE values move in a positive direction from initial to final thru true-up indicating settlements based on more complete usage data result in a reduction in the over-estimation of load.

There is less variance in UFE for true-up settlements when compared to initial and final settlements.

The pattern of median UFE is significantly different across seasons.


Continue with Load Research Project (PUCT Project 25516)

Improve Profile ID assignment process Continue to improve usage data loading accuracy and timeliness Increase the number of IDR’s

Evaluate Lagged Dynamic sampling techniques and their application to the ERCOT System

Continue to evaluate improvements to algorithms for missing IDR and NIDR data estimation

Continue to make improvements to loss estimations Explore alternative methods for UFE allocation

UFE Zones

By Substation Assignment

By Weather Zone

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UFE 2003 ANALYSIS

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