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Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions
as a basis for biodiversity policiesFelix Rauschmayer, Department of Economics, Sociology, and Law
• Introduction• Three dimensions of uncertainty:
– scientific– value– societal
• Multi-criteria decision aid• Conclusion
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1. Introduction
Measures may be taken on four levels:
1) the import of foreign species, 3) their establishment, and/or 2) their introduction into nature, 4) their invasion
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
Societal decisions about policies against biological invasions need assessments that integrate economic, social and ecological aspects.
A biological invasion is the establishment and the non-intended spread of an alien species.
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The assessment process may be divided into three steps: 1) Specify the underlying physical effects of invasions and of measures against invasions. 2) Assess the impacts of invasions on the social and economic environment.
3) Evaluate these assessments according to their importance.
1. Introduction
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
Knowledge about
probabilities
Knowledge about facts
unproblematic problematic
Ignorance
Ambiguity
Incertitude
unproblematic
problematic
Risk
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mbH Risk aspects:
(1) there are – at least in moderated or arctic regions – a lot of species for which the probability of establishment is nearly zero, and
Incertitude and ignorance aspects: (1) the probabilities of a single species to establish or invade vary to a
large extent,(2) It has not been possible to make general statistics concerning the
invasion probability dependent on any variables of the biota.(3) We are not in a position to isolate reasonable hypotheses
concerning the real probability of a certain species to get established or to become a pest.
2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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There are some species for which the consequences of invasions come close to a catastrophe. Others are unproblematic.
It is rational not to take drastic measures concerning species with nearly no probability of establishment, and it is also rational to take measures which inhibit catastrophes. In cases of high uncertainty, it is rational to choose the measure with the smallest potential negative effects.
2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the prognostics of the impacts
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2. b) Value uncertainty
Four moral questions for a decision maker in environmental fields:• Do only humans count? If yes:• Do only existing humans count? If yes:• Do only persons count? If yes:• Do persons always know best what is good for them?
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2. b) Value uncertainty
Taking decisions about biological invasions means to take morally complex decisions :(1) where many entities are concerned by a decision, (2) where it is not sure who these entities are, (3) where the decision touches upon many aspects of life, and (4) where irreversible consequences are to be expected.
Any assessment method must be open to different ethical conceptions, to integrate non-persons, and to respect the right of future generations.
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Two arguments in favour of participatory decision making: – the functional and – the ethical-normative argument.
Who participates?– Decision processes concerning measures against import or
establishment have to be open to the discourse of a large array of stakeholders.
– The aspects of value uncertainty discussed above call for advocatory participation for non-persons or non-living persons.
2. c) Societal uncertainty
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
Who shall participate in the decision process?
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Identify problem and actors1.
Selection of alternatives3.
Evaluation criteriaeconomic
criteriasocial
criteriaecological
criteriaAlternatives A B ... I J ... V W ...Alternative 1Alternative 2
...Alternative n
Multi-criteria matrix
4. Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Results of mono-criterion evaluations
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5.
Decision recommendation6.
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
poss.
Evaluation criteria2.
7. Implementation
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3. Multi-criteria decision aid
There are few and explicit transformation steps, Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique, The different uncertainties may be handled separately,
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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Identify problem and actors1.
Selection of alternatives3.
Evaluation criteriaeconomic
criteriasocial
criteriaecological
criteriaAlternatives A B ... I J ... V W ...Alternative 1Alternative 2
...Alternative n
Multi-criteria matrix
4. Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Results of mono-criterion evaluations
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5.
Decision recommendation6.
3. Multi-criteria decision aidEvaluation criteria
2.
7. Implementation
range of or fuzzy numbers
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3. Multi-criteria decision aid
There are few and explicit transformation steps, Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique. The different uncertainties may be handled separately, Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce
overall substitutability of the different values,
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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Identify problem and actors1.
Selection of alternatives3.
Evaluation criteriaeconomic
criteriasocial
criteriaecological
criteriaAlternatives A B ... I J ... V W ...Alternative 1Alternative 2
...Alternative n
Multi-criteria matrix
4. Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Results of mono-criterion evaluations
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5.
Decision recommendation6.
3. Multi-criteria decision aidEvaluation criteria
2.
7. Implementation
Thresholds
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3. Multi-criteria decision aid
There are few and explicit transformation steps, Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique. The different uncertainties may be handled separately, Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce
overall substitutability of the different values, Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”,
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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Identify problem and actors1.
Selection of alternatives3.
Evaluation criteriaeconomic
criteriasocial
criteriaecological
criteriaAlternatives A B ... I J ... V W ...Alternative 1Alternative 2
...Alternative n
Multi-criteria matrix
4. Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Results of mono-criterion evaluations
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5.
Decision recommendation6.
3. Multi-criteria decision aidEvaluation criteria
2.
7. Implementation
Different criteria
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3. Multi-criteria decision aid
There are few and explicit transformation steps, Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique. The different uncertainties may be handled separately, Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce
overall substitutability of the different values, Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”, Non-persons or future persons may be considered explicitly.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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Identify problem and actors1.
Selection of alternatives3.
Evaluation criteriaeconomic
criteriasocial
criteriaecological
criteriaAlternatives A B ... I J ... V W ...Alternative 1Alternative 2
...Alternative n
Multi-criteria matrix
4. Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Results of mono-criterion evaluations
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix 5.
Decision recommendation6.
3. Multi-criteria decision aidEvaluation criteria
2.
7. Implementation
Advocates
Discounting
Advocates
Critical Capital
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mbH The main difference between mono-criterion assessments and multi-
criteria decision analysis is less its mono- vs. multi-criteria approach, but the facility of the latter to be embedded in a social decision context. With multi-criteria decision aid, it is more facile to lay open the uncertainties in all three dimensions and to make them an explicit topic for public discourse. Therefore, it seems suitable as an assessment method for biological invasions and as a basis for biodiversity policies in general.
4. Conclusion
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer