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Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

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LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS ON ONE PRODUCTIVITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS ON ONE HAND AND TRADE IN AGRICULTURE AND TRADE HAND AND TRADE IN AGRICULTURE AND TRADE FACILITATION ON THE OTHER FACILITATION ON THE OTHER RECCOMENDATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION AND RECCOMENDATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT FOR A LANDLOCKED – COUNTRY LIKE DEVELOPMENT FOR A LANDLOCKED – COUNTRY LIKE UGANDA UGANDA By By Mwambutsya Ndebesa Mwambutsya Ndebesa E-mail: E-mail: [email protected]
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Page 1: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS PRODUCTIVITY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS ON ONE HAND AND TRADE IN AGRICULTURE ON ONE HAND AND TRADE IN AGRICULTURE AND TRADE FACILITATION ON THE OTHERAND TRADE FACILITATION ON THE OTHER

RECCOMENDATIONS FOR POVERTY RECCOMENDATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT FOR A REDUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT FOR A LANDLOCKED – COUNTRY LIKE UGANDALANDLOCKED – COUNTRY LIKE UGANDA

ByBy

Mwambutsya NdebesaMwambutsya Ndebesa

E-mail: E-mail: [email protected]

Page 2: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Economic, Trade and Social Profile of Agriculture SectorEconomic, Trade and Social Profile of Agriculture Sector

– Trends in the production, exports and imports of major Trends in the production, exports and imports of major crops/productscrops/products

– Trends in agricultural productivity with a focus on Trends in agricultural productivity with a focus on developments in the productivity of main crops in the last ten developments in the productivity of main crops in the last ten yearsyears

– Trends in formal and informal employment in agriculture, rural Trends in formal and informal employment in agriculture, rural poverty, poverty, nutrition and food security statusnutrition and food security status. .

Landlockedness and trade facilitation issuesLandlockedness and trade facilitation issues

– main physical, infrastructural and institutional constraints main physical, infrastructural and institutional constraints

– Policy framework with a focus on:Policy framework with a focus on:

– Key features of existing development, trade, agriculture and Key features of existing development, trade, agriculture and trade facilitation policiestrade facilitation policies

Page 3: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDYOBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

To collect information on and analyse the recent trends in To collect information on and analyse the recent trends in agricultural productivity, agriculture trade, livelihoods, and agricultural productivity, agriculture trade, livelihoods, and trade facilitation measures;trade facilitation measures;

To examine the complex relationships involved using a To examine the complex relationships involved using a holistic framework;holistic framework;

To generate new insights and knowledge that has practical To generate new insights and knowledge that has practical implications; and implications; and

To contribute to finding solutions including through coherent To contribute to finding solutions including through coherent policy framework that will assist Uganda in meeting the policy framework that will assist Uganda in meeting the objectives of NDP and NTP 2007.objectives of NDP and NTP 2007.

Page 4: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

KEY SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES THAT WERE COVEREDKEY SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES THAT WERE COVERED

Role of and constraints faced by the agricultural sector with Role of and constraints faced by the agricultural sector with focus on rural livelihoods, productivity, and trade;focus on rural livelihoods, productivity, and trade;

Trade facilitation needs and measures with focus on those Trade facilitation needs and measures with focus on those directly related to landlockedness;directly related to landlockedness;

Linkages and relationships among various issues with focus Linkages and relationships among various issues with focus on areas for synergetic action;on areas for synergetic action;

Policy frameworks related to agriculture, trade, and trade Policy frameworks related to agriculture, trade, and trade facilitation; andfacilitation; and

Development of coherent thinking and practice in the areas Development of coherent thinking and practice in the areas under study to advance poverty reduction and development under study to advance poverty reduction and development objectives. objectives.

Page 5: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

GDP GROWTH RATE TRENDS GDP GROWTH RATE TRENDS

From the late 1980s, From the late 1980s, Uganda registered high Uganda registered high growth rates until the 2000s growth rates until the 2000s when the growth rates when the growth rates slowed down as shown in slowed down as shown in the Figuresthe Figures

Economic growth raised Economic growth raised from Us $ 2 billion in 1980s from Us $ 2 billion in 1980s to Us $12 billion in 2007to Us $12 billion in 2007

Annual Average Growth rate of Total real GDP (1980-2007

3.5

7.4

6.8

6.1

5.6

6.56.2

6.5

5.85.9

5.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

80-90 80-00 80-05 90-00 90-05 95-05 00-05 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

cen

t

Nominal GDP ( 1980 - 2007)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US

$ M

illi

on

Page 6: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE TO GDPCONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE TO GDP

The share of Agric. to GDP The share of Agric. to GDP in Uganda has been in Uganda has been declining since 2001declining since 2001

Between 2000/09, the Between 2000/09, the share fell while that of share fell while that of Industry and services roseIndustry and services rose

The declining share of The declining share of agriculture in GDP vis-vis agriculture in GDP vis-vis other sectors represents other sectors represents positive transformation of positive transformation of a country’s economya country’s economy

%ge Contribution of Agricultue to Total GDP

35.734.1

25.1 24.122.3 21.2

23.7

36.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Per

cen

t

Page 7: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

Agricultural productivity has been on the decline for much of Agricultural productivity has been on the decline for much of the last decade as shown in the Figures belowthe last decade as shown in the Figures below

Between 1999 and 2006, the major export crops have Between 1999 and 2006, the major export crops have experienced double digit dropsexperienced double digit drops

The major cause of low productivity levels is theorized to be The major cause of low productivity levels is theorized to be lack of improved inputs applicationlack of improved inputs application

Uganda’s application of improved inputs is one of the lowest Uganda’s application of improved inputs is one of the lowest in the region in the region

PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPSPRODUCTIVITY OF THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS

Page 8: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

Change in Productivity of Selected Crops

-47-53

-61

-70

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Cofee Maize Cotton Rice

Kg

/Ha

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

%g

e ch

ang

e

1999 2006 % ge Change

Improved Inputs Application- 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

CentralRegion

EasternRegion

NothernRegion

WesternRegion

National

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Pestcides &Others

ChemicalFertlizerManure

ImprovedSeed

PRODUCTIVITY (cont’d)PRODUCTIVITY (cont’d)

Page 9: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

PRESENT FARM YIELDS AGAINST ATTAINABLE PRESENT FARM YIELDS AGAINST ATTAINABLE POTENTIAL FOR SELCTED CROPSPOTENTIAL FOR SELCTED CROPS

According to the Agricultural Sector Investment Plan According to the Agricultural Sector Investment Plan 2009/10 -2013/14; a comparative analysis of farm level 2009/10 -2013/14; a comparative analysis of farm level yields and research station yields reveals a huge gap.yields and research station yields reveals a huge gap.

As table below illustrates, productivity at the farm is far As table below illustrates, productivity at the farm is far much lower than the attainable potential much lower than the attainable potential

Page 10: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

FARM YIELDS VS POTENTIALFARM YIELDS VS POTENTIAL

Page 11: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

AGRICULTURAL TRADE PROFILE(EXPORTS)AGRICULTURAL TRADE PROFILE(EXPORTS)

Trend of Top 7 Agricultural Exports (2000-2008)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

(US

$ 0

00

')

Coffee

Cotton

Tea

Tobacco

Maize

Fish and FishproductsCut Flowers

Page 12: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

TRADE DEFICITTRADE DEFICIT

Accelerated growth in imports has resulted in a widening Accelerated growth in imports has resulted in a widening trade deficit standing at 2.5 billion in 2008trade deficit standing at 2.5 billion in 2008

(3,000)

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

Mil

lio

n U

S$

1994-96 1991-01 200-04 2003-05 2004 -06 2005-7

Value of Trade Balance (1994-2007)

Page 13: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LINKING AGRICULTURE TO LIVELIHOODSLINKING AGRICULTURE TO LIVELIHOODS

The key variables for livelihood indicators include employment, The key variables for livelihood indicators include employment, poverty reduction, and nutrition and food security among poverty reduction, and nutrition and food security among others.others.

Findings indicate that there is an interesting correlation Findings indicate that there is an interesting correlation between agricultural productivity and livelihood indicators between agricultural productivity and livelihood indicators

For example there is an imbalance in the structure of the For example there is an imbalance in the structure of the economy and labour force employmenteconomy and labour force employment

The proportion of persons engaged in the agricultural sector The proportion of persons engaged in the agricultural sector has increased from 65.5 percent in 2002/03 to 73.9 percent in has increased from 65.5 percent in 2002/03 to 73.9 percent in 2005/06, the share of agriculture has been declining 2005/06, the share of agriculture has been declining

Uganda’s total labor force in 2007 stood at about 12.5 million Uganda’s total labor force in 2007 stood at about 12.5 million people. people.

Page 14: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LABOUR FORCELABOUR FORCE

Labour Force 1990 -2007

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990 2000 2005 2007

Po

pu

lati

on

(0

00

')

Total Labour Force Agriculture labour Force

Page 15: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

GENDER AND EMPLOYMENTGENDER AND EMPLOYMENT

Male vs Female Labour Force

5352 52 52

4748 48 49

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

1990 2000 2005 2007

Per

cen

t

Female

Male

Data Source: UNCTAD Statistical Handbook (2008)

Page 16: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

POVERTY HEADCOUNT TRENDSPOVERTY HEADCOUNT TRENDS

Poverty Headcount (1992-2006)

59.7

49.2

37.4

27.8

16.7

9.6

42.7

34.2

13.714.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1992/93 1997/08 1999/00 2002/03 2005/06

%g

e o

f th

e T

ota

l P

op

ula

tio

n

Rural

Urban

UBOS Satistica Abstract 2009 & Mellenium Development Goals Country Progres Report 2007 – UNDP

Page 17: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

TREND OF RURAL AND URBAN INEQUALITYTREND OF RURAL AND URBAN INEQUALITY

Gini Coefficients for Uganda (1992-2006)

0.432

0.363

0.483

0.396

0.3630.328

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1992/93 2002/03 2005/06

Gin

i C

oe

ffic

ien

t

Urban Rural

Data Source: UBOS Statistical Abstract 2009

Page 18: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

TRENDS IN FOOD INSECURITY (1992-2006)TRENDS IN FOOD INSECURITY (1992-2006)

Trends in Food Insecurity (1992-2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1992 1999 2002 2006

Per

cen

t

National Rural Urban

Source of Data: Millennium Development Goals Country Progress Report 2007 – UNDP

Page 19: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LANDLOCKEDNESS CONSTRAINTS AND THEIR LANDLOCKEDNESS CONSTRAINTS AND THEIR EFFECT ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE EFFECT ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE

Uganda is critically dependent on its neighbors—Kenya and Uganda is critically dependent on its neighbors—Kenya and Tanzania for transportation of her goods and services.Tanzania for transportation of her goods and services.

The main routes used for Uganda’s external trade are: -the The main routes used for Uganda’s external trade are: -the

Northern CorridorNorthern Corridor The Central Corridor that comprises similar services, other than The Central Corridor that comprises similar services, other than

pipeline, pertaining to the Port of Dar Es Salaampipeline, pertaining to the Port of Dar Es Salaam

An air corridor out of Entebbe International AirportAn air corridor out of Entebbe International Airport

Road services between Uganda and countries further inlandRoad services between Uganda and countries further inland

Page 20: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

MAIN REGIONAL ROAD AND RAIL ROUTES MAIN REGIONAL ROAD AND RAIL ROUTES

Source: World bank Trade Integrated Study 2007. The map is not drawn to scale.

Page 21: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

THE MAIN CONSTRAINTS UNDER TRANSPORTTHE MAIN CONSTRAINTS UNDER TRANSPORT

The share of rail transport to total trafic is only 27 percentThe share of rail transport to total trafic is only 27 percent

Operations on railway transport are inefficient and poorOperations on railway transport are inefficient and poor

Internal transport links are mainly by road where more than Internal transport links are mainly by road where more than 30,000 kms of rural community access roads are unpaved30,000 kms of rural community access roads are unpaved

Most ferries have fallen into disuseMost ferries have fallen into disuse

Road service transport is expensive and exceeds rail rates Road service transport is expensive and exceeds rail rates by 38 to 56by 38 to 56

Other trade facilitation constraints include customs Other trade facilitation constraints include customs operations, clearing and forwarding, insurance, post services operations, clearing and forwarding, insurance, post services and telecommunications.and telecommunications.

Page 22: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

OTHER TRADE FACILITATION CONSTRAINTSOTHER TRADE FACILITATION CONSTRAINTS

Congestion at Mombasa Port which handles 95% of Uganda’s Congestion at Mombasa Port which handles 95% of Uganda’s external trade trafficexternal trade traffic

High cost of road transport due to high tarrifs on freight vehicles High cost of road transport due to high tarrifs on freight vehicles raised from 7 – 25% with the introduction of the Common External raised from 7 – 25% with the introduction of the Common External TariffTariff

Physical inspection of exports involving duty drawbacks and VAT Physical inspection of exports involving duty drawbacks and VAT refundsrefunds

Page 23: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDP) 2010/11 – 2014/15 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDP) 2010/11 – 2014/15 POLICY HIGHLIGHTSPOLICY HIGHLIGHTS

Increasing household incomes and promoting equityIncreasing household incomes and promoting equity Enhancing the availability and quality of gainful Enhancing the availability and quality of gainful

employmentemployment Improving the stock and quality of economic Improving the stock and quality of economic

infrastructureinfrastructure Increasing access to quality social servicesIncreasing access to quality social services Promoting science, technology and innovationPromoting science, technology and innovation Enhancing human capital developmentEnhancing human capital development Strengthening good governance, defense and Strengthening good governance, defense and

securitysecurity Promoting sustainable population and use of Promoting sustainable population and use of

environment and natural resourcesenvironment and natural resources

Page 24: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

NEW AGRICULTURAL POLICY HIGHLIGHTSNEW AGRICULTURAL POLICY HIGHLIGHTS

Support private sector investment in agriculture to encourage Support private sector investment in agriculture to encourage market oriented production processmarket oriented production process

Zonal agricultural strategy will be pursued to encourage Zonal agricultural strategy will be pursued to encourage regions maximally exploit comparative and competitive regions maximally exploit comparative and competitive advantage within different regions. Effort will focus on advantage within different regions. Effort will focus on supporting value chain development for strategic commoditiessupporting value chain development for strategic commodities

Support will be extended to both individual farmers and groups Support will be extended to both individual farmers and groups with special attention to gender equitywith special attention to gender equity

Government will continue to provide agricultural extension Government will continue to provide agricultural extension services via a decentralized service delivery structure to services via a decentralized service delivery structure to ensure that services reach all regions and farmers at the ensure that services reach all regions and farmers at the lowest unitslowest units

Government will ensure that all resources for agriculture Government will ensure that all resources for agriculture including soils and water are sustainably managed to support including soils and water are sustainably managed to support current and future generations.current and future generations.

Page 25: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

TRADE POLICY HIGHLIGHTS - NATIONAL TRADE POLICY TRADE POLICY HIGHLIGHTS - NATIONAL TRADE POLICY (NTP, 2007) (NTP, 2007)

Enhancing competitiveness in domestic, regional and Enhancing competitiveness in domestic, regional and international markets international markets

Ensuring that trade practices conform to international laws Ensuring that trade practices conform to international laws and regulationsand regulations

Developing domestic trade as a foundation for improved Developing domestic trade as a foundation for improved international trade practicesinternational trade practices

Securing and maintaining better market access at regional Securing and maintaining better market access at regional and international levelsand international levels

Ensuring that the gains from growth in trade are equitably Ensuring that the gains from growth in trade are equitably sharedshared

Supporting the country’s vision to industrialize by supporting Supporting the country’s vision to industrialize by supporting and complementing the industrial policy.and complementing the industrial policy.

Page 26: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

THE IMPACT OFAGRICULTURAL LIBERALISATION THE IMPACT OFAGRICULTURAL LIBERALISATION POLICYPOLICY

Positive ImpactPositive Impact Increased agricultural production responses to market Increased agricultural production responses to market

forcesforces Access to low cost and competitively priced inputsAccess to low cost and competitively priced inputs Attaining increased market access for her agricultural Attaining increased market access for her agricultural

products products Higher prices for agricultural commodities occasioned Higher prices for agricultural commodities occasioned

by competitive trade practices.by competitive trade practices. External trade performance has expanded External trade performance has expanded

substantially with more commodities exported. This substantially with more commodities exported. This was due to exported oriented policies including was due to exported oriented policies including emphasis on export diversificationemphasis on export diversification

Page 27: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL LIBERALISATION THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL LIBERALISATION POLICY (CONT’D)POLICY (CONT’D)

Negative ImpactNegative Impact Agricultural imports outcompete domestic agricultural Agricultural imports outcompete domestic agricultural

commoditiescommodities Agro-Industries are negatively impactedAgro-Industries are negatively impacted Peasant farmers have not gained a fair share of price Peasant farmers have not gained a fair share of price

increasesincreases

Page 28: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

ROLE OF DONOR SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURAL ROLE OF DONOR SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND CORRIDORS DEVELOPMENTPRODUCTIVITY AND CORRIDORS DEVELOPMENT

•Strengthening institutional capacity •Enhancing safety and reliability of service on the Ugandan section of the railway line to Mombasa•Promotion of regional and international integration

•Strengthening institutional capacity •Enhancing safety and reliability of service on the Ugandan section of the railway line to Mombasa•Promotion of regional and international integration

SSstrengthening institutional strengthening institutional capacity capacity

Enhancing safety and Enhancing safety and reliability of service on the reliability of service on the Ugandan section of the Ugandan section of the railway line to Mombasarailway line to Mombasa

Promotion of regional and Promotion of regional and international integrationinternational integration

Support for agricultural Support for agricultural researchresearch

Support for agriculture Support for agriculture advisory servicesadvisory services

Support for private sector Support for private sector developmentdevelopment

Page 29: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND LINKAGES BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND TRADE IN AGRICULTURETRADE IN AGRICULTURE

Positive LinkagesPositive Linkages Agricultural trade liberalisation has provided price Agricultural trade liberalisation has provided price

incentives to some farmers over some periodsincentives to some farmers over some periods Liberalisation has attracted investments in no-Liberalisation has attracted investments in no-

traditional crop exports especially to the COMESA traditional crop exports especially to the COMESA regionregion

Trading in live animals has positively contributed to Trading in live animals has positively contributed to increased production in the animal industry sectorincreased production in the animal industry sector

Trade in agricultural inputs has contributed to Trade in agricultural inputs has contributed to agrucultural productivityagrucultural productivity

Page 30: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LINKAGES (CONT’D)LINKAGES (CONT’D)

Negative LinkagesNegative Linkages Increased exports have not translated into more earnings Increased exports have not translated into more earnings

for the peasantsfor the peasants Increased exports coupled with poor management of Increased exports coupled with poor management of

natural resources have negatively impacted on land and natural resources have negatively impacted on land and water productivity especially on fish stockswater productivity especially on fish stocks

There is tendency for productivity to decrease in tandem There is tendency for productivity to decrease in tandem with international commodity priceswith international commodity prices

The greatest beneficiaries of increased exports namely the The greatest beneficiaries of increased exports namely the middlemen do not necessarily invest the proceeds in the middlemen do not necessarily invest the proceeds in the agricultural sectoragricultural sector

Liberalisation of agricultural imports has exposed the Liberalisation of agricultural imports has exposed the Ugandan farmers to the vagaries of international Ugandan farmers to the vagaries of international competitioncompetition

Page 31: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LINKAGES BETWEEN TRADE FACILITATION AND LINKAGES BETWEEN TRADE FACILITATION AND LANDLOCKEDNESSLANDLOCKEDNESS

Positive LinkagesPositive Linkages Government has put in place a well facilitated Government has put in place a well facilitated

customs management institution that has widely customs management institution that has widely distributed customs points manned by qualified distributed customs points manned by qualified personnelpersonnel

Government realizes that ensuring efficiency in Government realizes that ensuring efficiency in customs administration reduces on cost of doing customs administration reduces on cost of doing businessbusiness

There are efforts to link the northern corridor to trunk There are efforts to link the northern corridor to trunk roads and upgrade them into all weather roadsroads and upgrade them into all weather roads

There are efforts to harmonies trade facilitation There are efforts to harmonies trade facilitation processes at the EAC levelprocesses at the EAC level

Page 32: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

LINKAGES BETWEEN TRADE FACILITATION AND LINKAGES BETWEEN TRADE FACILITATION AND LANDLOCKEDNESS (CONT’D)LANDLOCKEDNESS (CONT’D)

Negative LinkagesNegative Linkages Documentation requirements are still many and Documentation requirements are still many and

issued by various institutionsissued by various institutions A lot of time and resources are wasted in acquiring A lot of time and resources are wasted in acquiring

these documentsthese documents The cost of exporting is still high and there are a lot of The cost of exporting is still high and there are a lot of

delaysdelays The majority of feeder and community roads are not-The majority of feeder and community roads are not-

all weather roadsall weather roads There are still incidents of corruption that lead to There are still incidents of corruption that lead to

delays in clearance of goodsdelays in clearance of goods

Page 33: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGSSUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS

There is a mismatch between economic growth, indicators and There is a mismatch between economic growth, indicators and livelihood indicators.livelihood indicators.

There is an imbalance in the structures of the economy and There is an imbalance in the structures of the economy and labour force employment.labour force employment.

The proportion of persons engaging in the agricultural sector The proportion of persons engaging in the agricultural sector has increased from 65.5 percent in 2002/2003 to 73.9 percent has increased from 65.5 percent in 2002/2003 to 73.9 percent in 2005/2006.in 2005/2006.

On the other hand the share of agriculture to the total GDP has On the other hand the share of agriculture to the total GDP has been increasing.been increasing.

Majority of the population is employed in the agricultural sector Majority of the population is employed in the agricultural sector whose share to GDP is declining.whose share to GDP is declining.

The economy of Uganda has been growing but inequality gap The economy of Uganda has been growing but inequality gap has equally been increasing.has equally been increasing.

Page 34: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

SUMMARY (CONT’D)SUMMARY (CONT’D)

The economy of Uganda has generally been registering The economy of Uganda has generally been registering growth since the 1990sgrowth since the 1990s

The share of Agriculture to total GDP has been declining The share of Agriculture to total GDP has been declining since 2001since 2001

Since 2001 agriculture sector growth rate has been decliningSince 2001 agriculture sector growth rate has been declining Agricultural productivity has been on the decline for much of Agricultural productivity has been on the decline for much of

the last decadethe last decade Agricultural exports have been increasing for the last one Agricultural exports have been increasing for the last one

decadedecade

Page 35: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

CONT’DCONT’D

The population growth rate has also been high at an average of 3.2 The population growth rate has also been high at an average of 3.2 percent per annum.percent per annum.

Women who feed the families are the least found in formal Women who feed the families are the least found in formal employmentemployment

Food insecurity in rural areas is positively correlated with falling Food insecurity in rural areas is positively correlated with falling rural earningsrural earnings

Productivity of main agricultural crops has been declining for the Productivity of main agricultural crops has been declining for the last one decade.last one decade.

In general terms export earnings have been increasing and poverty In general terms export earnings have been increasing and poverty reduction has been visible in rural areas producing cash crops.reduction has been visible in rural areas producing cash crops.

Merchandise imports have been rising. Between 2001 and 2008 Merchandise imports have been rising. Between 2001 and 2008 imports rose nearly 400 percent. This has resulted into a widening imports rose nearly 400 percent. This has resulted into a widening trade deficit.trade deficit.

The prices for the basic consumer products for the rural poor have The prices for the basic consumer products for the rural poor have been increasing.been increasing.

Page 36: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

RECOMENDATIONSRECOMENDATIONS

Need for more facilitative Government interventions to Need for more facilitative Government interventions to increase agricultural productivityincrease agricultural productivity

Need to control population growth to match economic Need to control population growth to match economic growthgrowth

Need to invest in rural areas where the majority of the Need to invest in rural areas where the majority of the population is employedpopulation is employed

Need to incorporate issues of reducing income inequality in Need to incorporate issues of reducing income inequality in development planningdevelopment planning

The government needs to integrate income and non-income The government needs to integrate income and non-income factors in development planning e.g food security, nutrition factors in development planning e.g food security, nutrition and employment.and employment.

Page 37: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

Recommendations (cont’d)Recommendations (cont’d)

Efforts should be made by government and CSOs to Efforts should be made by government and CSOs to sensitize farmers and other Agricultural stakeholders sensitize farmers and other Agricultural stakeholders about issues of national, regional and global trade about issues of national, regional and global trade policiespolicies

Government needs to formulate and effectively Government needs to formulate and effectively implement a National Policy and funding sceme for implement a National Policy and funding sceme for small and Medium Enterprises in Uganda especially small and Medium Enterprises in Uganda especially those involved in agro-processing and exportthose involved in agro-processing and export

Government needs to establish a support mechanism Government needs to establish a support mechanism or provide incentives to investors involved in or provide incentives to investors involved in increased agricultural productivity enterprises or increased agricultural productivity enterprises or venturesventures

Page 38: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)

The policy making and planning bodies such as NPA The policy making and planning bodies such as NPA should integrate economic and non-economic factors should integrate economic and non-economic factors in their development programmes.in their development programmes.

There is need to have synergy between the ministries There is need to have synergy between the ministries of Agriculture and Trade on one hand and the welfare of Agriculture and Trade on one hand and the welfare and human development ministries such as labour.and human development ministries such as labour.

Agricultural inputs are imported and are expensive. Agricultural inputs are imported and are expensive. Therefore government should subsidize farmers to Therefore government should subsidize farmers to enable them acquire these inputs at low cost. enable them acquire these inputs at low cost.

Government should encourage the development of Government should encourage the development of trade and marketing institutional infrastructure to trade and marketing institutional infrastructure to minimize or cut off many middlemen from the value minimize or cut off many middlemen from the value chain.chain.

Page 39: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)

There is need for government to put in place a mechanism and policy for target subsidies to increase Agricultural productivity.

Productivity decreases in tandem with international commodity prices. The government should therefore come up with a systematic targeted price stabilization fund for strategic crops or livestock sector.

Researchers and Research Institutes should find out more on the impact of external trade liberalization on agricultural productivity.

Research studies should establish how and to what extent farmers earn far less than other players in the value chain.

Researchers should establish why there is dismal fertilizer use in Uganda and try to demonstrate how fertilizer use makes a difference in productivity.

There is need for further research on Agricultural, land, water and labour productivity in Uganda.

Page 40: Uganda nd2010 ppt-ndebesa

RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)

The study recommends that government should balance commercial imperatives of agricultural policy with welfare imperatives such as employment, improved livelihoods, food security and nutrition and gender equality.

Government should pursue Trade and Transit Agreements at regional as well as International levels to ease movement of goods for a landlocked country.

Government should invest in increasing Route Capacity especially the northern corridor as well as pursuing the decongestion of Mombasa port at a diplomatic and EAC levels.

The researchers in Uganda should unravel the paradox of why official statistics show that rural poverty is declining at the same time as the share of Agriculture to GDP is declining and yet this is where the majority of the rural population is employed.

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RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)

Development partners such as donor countries and multilateral institutions should shift from Aid targeting price incentives to Aid targeting land and labor productivity.

Donors should assist the government of Uganda to set up an Agricultural Bank to offer soft loans to finance Agricultural productivity improvement.

Development partners should allow more preferential treatment for a developing country like Uganda.

The Global development analysis should shift from the existing market orientation towards a mixture of market and livelihood orientation

CSOs should increase their capacity building endeavours in order to sensitize their constituents into the need to link productivity to livelihood indictors.

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RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)RECOMMENDATIONS (CONT’D)

Farmers associations should aim at cutting out middlemen by building marketing institutions to enable them sale directly to the urban markets.

Farmers associations should link up with research institutions towards improving on Agricultural productivity. They should also sensitize the farmers in the use of improved productivity technologies and use of fertilizers.

With respect to trade facilitation, the private sector should actively participate in trade facilitation infrastructure development under Public-Private Sector Partnership

Again on trade facilitation, together with Government, the private sector should invest in infrastructural interconnections.

It is important that synergies are built among the various relevant institutions to ensure effectiveness of their services and optimization of agriculture support services and resources.


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