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22.01.2007 UK: Car Emissions Are Down, but Deaths Are Up Hadi Dowlatabadi & Eric Mazzi January 22 2007 C DMC
22.01.2007
UK: Car Emissions Are Down,
but Deaths Are Up
Hadi Dowlatabadi & Eric Mazzi
January 22 2007
C DMC
22.01.2007
Background
• Goal 1:
– Promoting policies that address climate change.
• Goal 2:
– Making sure the policies are smart: insufficient action (mitigation & adaptation)
wasteful policies (free riders)
harmful policies (unintended consequences)
...
22.01.2007
Climate policies
• Mitigation
– These are policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and hence keeping climate change in check.
• Adaptation
– These are policies designed to help us cope with the impacts of any climate change (after mitigation).
• Goengineering
– These interventions manipulate climate processes and will be attempted when there has been insufficient mitigation to avert severe climate change impacts.
22.01.2007
Hallmarks of GOOD policy
• Equity
– the policy does not burden/reward anyone unfairly
• Efficiency
– the emission reductions are cost effective
• Ancillary benefits
– achieves intended goals and other advantages
22.01.2007
Reality
• Policies are shaped by:
– political expedience (e.g., German unification)
– ideology (e.g., reliance on markets over regulations)
– gross simplifications (e.g., little interaction)
22.01.2007
Sources of Greenhouse Gases: UK 1990-2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
million tonnes (carbon equivalent)
Other
Residential
Other industries
Energy industries
Road transport
Source: netcen
22.01.2007
GHG Emissions from Autos
• Reductions are possible through:
– Less driving.
– More people per km driven.
– Lighter vehicles.
– More efficient drive-trains.
– Renewable fuels.
– ...
22.01.2007
The UK Policy
• Add a tax based on GHG emissions to purchase price of cars.
• Change the way company cars are taxed.
22.01.2007
Diesel Cars
• As refined as gasoline since the mid 90s.
• 25% more fuel efficient than gasoline cars.
• 20% less GHG emissions than gasoline cars.
• But they have been more polluting and effective emission controls need:
– ultra-low sulphur fuels
– more expensive technology
22.01.2007
Diesel Shares EU & UK
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
199019921994199619982000200220042006
Share of new registrations
EU UK UK after policy
22.01.2007
All That Tax?
• The huge rise in diesel share in the UK is well beyond what was expected.
• The context:
– a population primed to take climate change seriously
– a range of new diesel cars to choose from
– ...
• But the government has been quick to take credit for all of the GHG reduction.
22.01.2007
Timing MattersYear Standard Excess deaths/
MTCO2
<2004 Euro III 570
2004-2009 Euro IV 460
2009 Euro V 0
22.01.2007
The Commitment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Year
Cumulative additional diesels
post-Euro IV
Euro IV
Euro III
Euro IV emission
limits apply
Proposed harmonization of petrol and
diesel car emission limits (post-Euro IV)
CO2 based Vehicle Excise
Duty (VED)
CO2 based Company Car Tax
22.01.2007
Leaving It to Choice is Wrong
Car Mass
Pop
ulat
ion
Den
sity
22.01.2007
More Deaths
• A bifurcated auto population jeopardizes those who chose to be conserve energy through buying smaller lighter vehicles.
