UK Climate Impacts Programme Dr Richenda Connell UK Climate Impacts Programme The UKCIP experience:...

UK ClimateImpactsProgramme

Dr Richenda Connell

UK Climate Impacts Programme

The UKCIP experience: Application of scenarios in I, A & V assessmentsAIACC Intensive Training Course, Tyndall Centre, UEA, 16 March 2002


Scope

• Introduction to the Programme• Core tools for studies• Application of scenarios in sub-UK scoping studies and

sectoral studies


What is UKCIP?

• Funded by the UK Government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) since 1997

• Overall aim is: to establish a framework for stakeholder-led research on the impacts of climate change in the UK at a regional and national level based on common tools and datasets


What is UKCIP?

• Helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change and plan appropriate responses

• Links research and decision-making (local - national level)


Structure of UKCIP

• Run by a Programme Office of 6 staff• Overseen by DEFRA and high level Steering Committee• Advised by Panel of climate change impacts experts• User Forum provides input from stakeholders• UKCIP helps to initiate, manage and integrate two types of

studies in a common framework:– integrated assessments at a sub-UK level– single sector assessments at a national level



What UKCIP provides: integration

• Common tools and datasets for studies• UKCIP on study steering committees• Guidance for research teams• Support throughout the study - methodological guidance,

reviewing reports, etc.• Dissemination of information from studies


UKCIP tools


Tools for integrated assessment

• Climate change scenarios (UKCIP98, UKCIP02)

• Socio-economic scenarios (2001)

• Datasets (soils, land cover, designated sites etc.) - quality assurance, integration, GIS

• Risk and uncertainty in decision-making (forthcoming)

• Methodology for costing the impacts of climate change (forthcoming)

• All tools and data funded by DEFRA


UKCIP98 climate scenarios• Developed for UKCIP by Hadley

Centre, Met Office & CRU, UEA

• 4 scenarios to represent uncertainty in future emissions and climate models

• Timescales: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

• Grid boxes 350 x 250km

• Downscaled to 10km by simple interpolation


UKCIP98 scenarios example: Change in mean winter (DJF) precipitation (%)

2020s 2050s 2080s


Percentage of years experiencing certain climate extremes across England and Wales

for the medium-high scenario

Present 2020s 2050s 2080sMean temperatureA hot ‘1997-type’August 2 15 32 40A warm ‘1997-type’ year 6 59 85 99PrecipitationSummer rainfall below 50% of average 1 7 12 10A two-year precipitation below 90% ofaverage 12 11 14 6

Source: Hadley Centre and

UEA



Change in storm surge frequency

31 cm sea-level riseby 2050s

Return periodin 2050s=20 years

1 10 100 10004.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Harwich (data from POL)

Current 100-yearreturn period water level

Re

turn

he

igh

t in

me

tre

s

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

• Change in estimated 1/100yr return periods for varying sea level rise• Small SLR corresponds to a big change in the return period of storm surges

Storm surges


UKCIP98 scenarios CD-ROM

Analysis by sector: >120 licensed users

‘Water’ includes river flooding, water quality, water resources


UKCIP02 climate scenarios

Improvements over UKCIP98:• Downscaling using the Regional Climate Model

– more geographical detail (50km resolution)– improved prediction of extremes (daily statistics)

• Based on the latest Hadley Centre global models– better representation of storm tracks

• Use the full range of new emissions scenarios– IPCC SRES scenarios of GHG and sulphur


Change in winter rainfall by 2080sHADLEY RCMHADLEY GCM


How uncertainty is incorporated into UKCIP climate scenarios (1)

• UKCIP98 and UKCIP02 both have four scenarios• No ‘best guess’• No probabilities • UKCIP98 incorporate emissions uncertainty and

uncertainty about climate sensitivity• UKCIP02 include emissions uncertainty only• Recommend using other models too


How uncertainty is incorporated into UKCIP climate scenarios (2)

• Four scenarios are ensemble means• Examine individual ensemble members to understand

natural climate variability* vs. human-induced climate change

• For temperature, human effect dominates• For precipitation, 2020s, intra-ensemble range

ensemble mean change

* NB These ensembles reflect internal ocean-atmosphere variability, not changes in solar or volcanic forcing


Guidance on use of scenarios

• In-depth / quantitative studies for developing adaptation strategies - recommend all 4 scenarios and other models

• Scoping studies - consider sensitivity to High/Low scenarios

• Avoid using one ‘best guess’ scenarios (UKCIP98 medium-high)

• Explore natural variability too• Understand relative uncertainty of different variables


Cascade of uncertainty• CO2 concentration

• Global-mean sea level• Global-mean temperature• Regional temperatures• Regional temperature extremes• Regional precipitation• Cloud cover• Climatic variability / extremes

High confidence

Low confidence


UKCIP socio-economic scenarios

‘NATIONAL’ENTERPRISE

WORLDMARKETS

LOCALSTEWARDSHIP

GLOBALSUSTAINABILITY

Autonomy

Interdependence

Consumerism CommunityCONVENTIONALDEVELOPMENT

Governance

Values


Today(mid 1990s)

2020s(linear)

'National'Enterprise

LocalStewardship

WorldMarkets

GlobalSustainability

Economic DevelopmentGDP(average growth 1995-2025)

+2 % p.a. +2 % p.a. + 1.75 % p.a. + 1.25 % p.a. + 3 % p.a. + 2.25 % p.a.

Planning and Built EnvironmentAverage household size 2.4 persons 2.2 persons 2.4 persons 2.6 persons 2.0 persons 2.2 personsLand use (%)

agriculturalforest, woodland and otherurban and not specified

75 %10 %15 %

72.5 %11 %

16.5 %

73 %10 %17 %

76 %9 %15 %

71 %11 %18 %

71 %13 %16 %

AgricultureTotal agricultural areaof which under agricultural productionof which other (set aside, roads etc.)

18,500,000 ha18,000,000 ha

500,000 ha

17,500,000 ha17,000,000500,000 ha

18,000,000 ha17,500,000 ha

500,000 ha

19,000,000 ha18,750,000 ha

250,000 ha

16,500,000 ha16,000,000 ha

500,000 ha

17,500,000 ha17,000,000 ha

500,000 haOrganic farming% of area under agricultural production 1 % no stable trend 0 % 40 % 3 % 20 %

WaterRiver quality (% classified as good)biologicallychemically

93%63%

improvingimproving

85 %50 %

95 %65 %

90 %60 %

95 %75 %

BiodiversityArea of Sites of Special Scientific Interest 2,000,000 ha 3,800,000 ha 1,500,000 ha 4,500,000 ha 2,500,000 ha 5,500,000 ha

Coastal Zone Management6

Zones protected by coastal defences 240,000 ha 235,000 ha 220,000 ha 240,000 ha 225,000 haFormerly protected areas flooded or eroded as aresult of 'managed retreat' after the mid 1990s

-- 2,500 ha 10,000 ha 0 ha 15,000 ha

Selected indicators of the UKCIP SES in the 2020s


All data integrated and analysed via GIS

Data for studies• Climate scenarios• Socio-economic scenarios • Land cover• Topography• Soils• Geology• Designated sites (SSSI etc.)• Administrative boundaries• Sea level rise• Agri-environmental zones (NVZs, ESAs)• Agricultural census data


UKCIP studies


Stages of climate change impact and adaptationstudies

Stage Central question Research method UKCIP progressIssue attentionStakeholder engagement

Is this an issue? Extreme scenariosObserved trendsExpert opinion

WorkshopsMeetingsPresentations

Issue identification What are the issues? Research synthesisExpert opinionStakeholder interviewsRegional interpretation of reportsVulnerability profiles

Sub-UK scoping studies

Priority setting What are the priorities? Expert elicitationCriteria rating/rankingWorkshop processes

DEFRA NatureConservation PolicyReview

Impact assessment How serious are the expectedimpacts?

Formal modellingLinked sector models

REGIS, MONARCH

Adaptation evaluation What options should beadopted?

Decision analysisRisk assessment

Risk and uncertaintyguidelines beingdeveloped


Funders of UKCIP studiesThe Scottish ExecutiveNational Assembly for WalesDepartment of the Environment Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland Environment and Heritage Service, Dúchas The Heritage Service, National Parks and Wildlife (Republic of Ireland)Blaby and Boston District Councils, Cheshire, Cornwall, Derbyshire, Hampshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Surrey and West Sussex County Councils,Countryside AgencyCountryside Council for WalesDepartment of HealthDETR Wildlife and Countryside DirectorateEnglish HeritageEnglish NatureEnvironment AgencyFarming and Rural Conservation AgencyForestry CommissionGovernment Offices for the East Midlands, North West England, South East England, South West England and West MidlandsNorth West Regional AssociationNorth West Regional ChamberMAFFScottish Natural HeritageUKWIR

AcordisAnglian WaterArkleton TrustAssociation of British InsurersAXA Insurance,Carlton TVCountry Life MagazineDuchy of Cornwall,East Midlands AirportManchester AirportMarsh UK LtdMidlands Environment Business ClubNatWest BankNorth West WaterNotcuttsPROSPERRolls Royce plcSevern Trent WaterSouth West WaterSWEBSWELTarmac plcThames WaterToyota UKTXU Europe Power LtdWessex WaterWestcountry TelevisionWestcountry Tourist BoardWilkinson

CCMS - Plymouth Marine LaboratoryEast Midlands LinkThe National TrustThe National Trust for ScotlandPeak District National ParkThe Royal Horticultural SocietyRoyal Society for the Protection of BirdsSurrey Wildlife TrustSustainability North WestUniversities of Exeter and PlymouthWWF-UK.


Scoping study initiated / underway

Conference held

Scoping study completed

Integrated assessment underway. Coverage to be extended

Gaps

Scotland scoping study completed December 1999. Further studies underway.

East Midlands scoping study completed July 2000. Study to be completed

REGIS study complete in North West England and East Anglia.

Eastern region study at inception

South West England: Conferences held December 1999 (Cornwall) and January 2001 (Cheltenham). Scoping study underway Gaps in regional coverage to be filled.

North East England conference held May 2001

London scoping study underway.

South East England scoping study completed November 1999.Regional co-ordinator appointed by SECCP to take forward next stage work.

Wales scoping study completed February 2000.

West Midlands scoping study underway

North West England scoping study completed December 1998. Funding being sought for next steps.

Northern Ireland scoping study complete. To be launched shortly Scoping study to be undertaken

Current status ofsub-UK scoping studies

Yorkshire and Humberside scoping study underway.


Features of sub-UK scoping studies

• Review of existing information by literature review and stakeholder consultation - not original research

• Undertaken by (local) universities, consultants• Value for money - ca. £50K and quick - ca. 9 months • Technical reports• Short reports - useful for policy-makers and good

communications tools - capture attention of regional media• Launch at high-profile conferences


Use of climate scenarios in sub-UK scoping studies (1)

• Used to present information simply (visually) to stakeholders, to elicit their opinions about impacts during consultation exercises

• Stakeholders respond to broad directions of change, rather than detail

• Stakeholders look for within-region differences - smaller scale than UKCIP98 grid size



• Consultants compare scenarios data for region with impacts literature, and draw conclusions on regional impacts

• Tendency to use one ‘best guess’ scenario where more information is available (UKCIP98 medium-high)

• Downscaling used in Wales (RCM data) and East Midlands (RCM and statistical downscaling data) studies



Time horizons:

• 2020s, 2050s most commonly used

• Even 2020s is too distant for business sector

• 2080s perceived as having little relevance to most decision-makers


Contrasting areas: Scotland and south east England scoping studies

Scotland

•Increased risk of flooding and sea level rise with detrimental impacts on land transport and marine operations

•Warmer temperatures bring fewer cold deaths in winter

•Impacts of changes in ocean currents on salmon, sea trout

•Forestry should benefit from increased growth rates

South east England

•Region could face water shortages unless planning measures take climate change into account

•New crops possible, such as soya, maize, sunflowers, navy beans

•Business and property on coast vulnerable to SLR

•Low river flows could affect water quality in value chalk streams

•Ground subsidence of properties on clay-based soils


Headline impacts from sub-UK/ regional scoping studies

• Flooding (rivers and coasts) could worsen significantly• Water resources under stress and water quality threatened• Changing countryside• Many businesses are not aware of climate change impacts• Extreme weather events are key• Integrated assessments are needed


REGIS• Integrated regional

assessment• East Anglia & north

west England• Used climate and

socio-economic scenarios

• Funded by DEFRA and UKWIR

MODELS &INTERACTIONS

INTEGRATEDASSESSMENT

(All)

AGRICULTURE Yields, profitability

& land use(SRI)

COASTAL ZONESea level rise,

flooding & erosion (FHRC)

BIODIVERSITYEcosystems, species

& habitats(ECI)

WATERquantity, quality

& flooding(SSLRC)

SCENARIOSClimate and

socio-economicchange (All)

GIS DATABASEModel inputs &

outputs, landscapecharacteristics

(UCL)

STAKEHOLDERS (UMIST/UM)


REGIS model linkages

Core data for all models:

• climate and soc-econ scenarios

• soils

• land cover

• topography

Biodiversity:

Species movement

Habitats

Agricultural land use

Cropping model

Optimisation model

Coastal flooding risk

River flooding risk

Hydrology:

Water quality

River flows

Available

land

Available

land

Agricultural run-off

Leached N

Groundwater recharge

River flows


Use of scenarios in REGIS (1)• Coupling climate (CC) and socio-economic scenarios

(SES) generates 120 potential model runs - too many!• Decided which combinations of scenarios to use at

stakeholder workshop• Used UKCIP98 Low and UKCIP98 High CC scenarios

(unintelligently downscaled to 10x10km grid) alone - to understand climate-only effects

• Also used UKCIP98 Low CC + Global Sustainability SES and UKCIP98 High CC + Regional Enterprise SES - for 2050s


Use of scenarios in REGIS (2)• Used UKCIP98 CC - average monthly changes, so don’t

know about impacts of extreme events• Took UKCIP SES and derived regional quantified SES out

to 2050s, using expert opinion - very difficult to justify numbers, but have a big effect on the model outputs

• Hence difficult to quantify the relative importance of climate vs. socio-economic change on systems

• SES used as input data only - so limited capacity to deal with adaptation strategies and feedbacks in complex systems (e.g. changing agricultural prices)


REGIS - Socio-economic scenariosNon-spatial variables - crop yields & prices, subsidies etc.

Spatial variables - future housing patterns, urban areas, designated conservation sites, agri-environment schemes etc.

Current SSSI’s in E Anglia Future ??

Informed judgement


NWest 1995

Regional Enterprise

2050High

Global Sustainability

2050Low

Legend

Wwheat Wbarley Sbarley

Soats Pots Pots100

Pots200 Sbeet SBeet100

SBeet200 Dpeas WOSR

SOSR Wbeans Sbeans

Linseed Sunflowers Fmaize

S-side Ley Permgrass

Distribution of land use in NW England

1995 2050 high 2050 lowClimate only

Climate only

Regional Enterprise Global sustainability


REGIS - lessons learned

• Assessments should develop internally consistent, "integrated scenarios" - would reduce number of model runs

• Should include impacts of extreme climatic events• SES should be placed in a national framework, so validity

of assumptions made at regional level can be verified• Funders and contractors need to assign sufficient

resources to SES if they are to be developed within future projects


MONARCH• Studies direct impacts of climate change on wildlife and

geomorphological features in Britain and Ireland


MONARCH climate dataMONARCH used UKCIP98 monthly mean values for:

mean monthly T minimum monthly T

no. of rain days total monthly rainfall (PPT)

monthly PET PPT-PET

mean monthly windspeed mean monthly sunshine

sum of May and June rainfall max T in warmest month

growing degree days (>5oC) absolute minimum T

absolute maximum T

Important climatic data not available from UKCIP98:no. days with snow / sleet max. wind speed and direction

storms intensity of rainfall events


SPECIES model: in REGIS and MONARCH

Training:

Current European species’ distributions

Change in UK and Ireland species’ distributions

• Uses a neural net to predict future climate space for species• Advantages - robust, copes with variety of data; can identify non-linear

change


Neural net simulated current distributionActual distribution

1. Training of neural Net

SPECIES modelling Potamageton filiformis (Slender-leaved pondweed)


Coenonympha tullia (Large heath butterfly)

Now (validation)

2020s Low 2050s Low

2020s High 2050s High

2. Simulation


MONARCH - key findings

• Warmer weather will extend range of many species • Vulnerable species, in the mountains of north Wales and Scotland

could face extinction within 50 years

• Nature conservation will need to evolve with the changing climate - a more forward-looking and dynamic approach will be needed

• Accommodating species movements and displacements will require greater emphasis on wildlife management in the wider countryside


New UKCIP studies

• Built environment - several studies with common data needs which are beyond 50km scale and want them to work together - looking at possibility of common downscaling

• MarClim - using sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for first time


Guidance on handling risk and uncertainty in decision-making

Identify problem

Climate change issue identification

ImplementationClimate change application

Establish objectives

Information gathering

Risk analysis

Options appraisal

Identify options

Adaptation strategies

Vulnerability assessment

Climate change scenarios, impacts

assessment, uncertainties

Monitoring

Climate change research, monitoring

Decision (preferred option)

Climate change policy


Methodology for costing climate change impacts

• For use by non-economists to perform ‘desk-top’ climate change costing analyses at a local/regional scale, disaggregated by sector

• Economic theory is kept to a minimum• Valuation techniques are outlined in a ‘step-by-step’

manner and illustrated with numerical examples


Conclusions: use of scenarios in UKCIP studies

• Use (rightly) varies according to study type and purpose• Users will always want finer detail, but may not exploit the data

fully• Studies encounter resource limitations on how many scenarios

can be used• Natural variability is being forgotten• Socio-economic scenarios are hard to use, but important


Conclusions: benefits of the UKCIP approach

• Use of common tools in studies ensures consistent approach• Conducting studies in a common framework provides a more

realistic assessment of climate change impacts • Translates a global problem into a local reality • Gives decision-making “ownership” of the climate change issue• Delivers information for regional and local planning, and for

national level policy making • Everyone can benefit from the partnership structure

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