Date post: | 15-Apr-2017 |
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Story of the UK
by GAO Xueshengnan (1200013251)
CHEN Yan ran (W13194121)
YAN Xuqian (1200013513)
YU Xiaoyu (W13194022)
ZHAO Bingbing (W13194082)
OUTLINE
Historical Phases of UK’s Economy
UK Economic Growth Framework- Factors of Production, Productivity
- Natural Environment, Government, Income Distribution
Potentials for UK to Grow Faster
Historical Phases of UK’s Economy
1. Transformation Period(1500-1700)2. Became The Hegemon(1700-1820)3. Rapid Growth Period(1820-1913)4. The British Disease(1918-1945)5. Continued Economic Stagnation(1946-2000)6. Slow Increase Period(2000- )
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
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1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
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1971
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1991
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1996
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1998
1999
2000
2001
-9.4
0
9.4
18.8
28.1 GDP growth rate CPIunemployment rate
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Figure 1 The Growth Rate of GDP of the Britain (1918-1945)Figure 2 Three Main Economic Indexes of the Britain (1950-2000)
Data Source: Office for National Statistics(1950-2000)
UK Economic Growth Framework
Development AccountingDevelopment Accounting 2005
Development Accounting 2009
Country Output per worker, y
Physical Capital per Worker, k
Human Capital per Worker, h
Factors of Production, Productivity, A
US 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00UK 0.76 0.69 0.97 0.87 0.87
Country Output per worker, y
Physical Capital per Worker, k
Human Capital per Worker, h
Factors of Production, Productivity, A
US 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00UK 0.82 0.68 0.87 0.80 1.03
Factors of ProductionPhysical Capital
Human CapitalEducation
HealthUK US Germany France OECD-Av-
erage0
7000
14000
21000
28000
Financial and Human Resources Invested in Education
Expenditure Per Student
2000 2008 2009 2010 201160
75
90
105
120
Change in Expenditure Per Student, Primary, Sec-ondary, and Post-Secondary Non-Tertiary Education
(2005=100)
UKUSGermanyFranceOECD-Average
2000 2008 2009 2010 201160
77.5
95
112.5
130
Change in Expenditure Per Student, Tertiary Education (2005=100)
UKUSGermanyFranceOECD-Average
Productivity - TFPTechnology
Efficiency
Patents
R & DCountry Number of
ResearchersResearchers as a
Percentage of Labor Force
Research Spending ($
billions)Researchers as a
Percentage of GDP
UK 251357.56 0.80% 39.13 1.69%
US 1252948.35 0.81% 429.14 2.77%
Germany 338688.74 0.80% 96.28 2.80%
France 249246.60 0.88% 53.43 2.19%
OECD Total 4304005.24 0.72% 1056.09 2.33%
Comparative US/UK and German/UK TFP Levels by Sector, 1879-71 to 2007 (UK=100)
A US/UK
Agriculture Industry Services Aggregate Economy
1869-71 99.5 154.2 86.5 95.21889-91 123.0 139.6 64.3 83.31909-11 118.7 150.9 71.6 90.51919-20 133.1 158.3 92.1 108.2
1929 118.0 187.8 92.0 112.71937 119.2 161.2 89.1 105.91950 132.6 217.6 110.2 138.11973 125.9 202.2 120.6 137.41990 138.8 157.3 119.8 125.32007 184.2 167.9 115.7 122.0
B Germany/UK1871 58.4 90.5 67.2 61.61891 59.8 91.6 65.5 63.21911 71.6 106.1 76.4 75.41925 57.0 92.9 83.6 74.31929 59.3 96.0 90.0 78.51935 59.6 97.1 88.8 78.21950 44.7 89.4 89.3 76.21973 48.1 105.7 127.6 108.61990 65.4 98.5 139.0 116.52007 77.0 94.2 126.9 108.8
Government (1)Government Settings(2)Accumulation of other factors
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-9.375
0
9.375
18.75
28.125
37.5
the UKInflation RateGermanyInflation Rate
1943 1960 1978 1995 2013 20300
5.75
11.5
17.25
23
28.75
the UKgovernment expenditure percentag ( /GDP )Germanygovernment expenditure percentag ( /GDP )
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-4.375
0
4.375
8.75
13.125
17.5
the UKPublic education expenditure percentage(/government expenditure)GermanyPublic education expenditure percentage(/government expenditure)the UKpopulation growth rateGermanypopulation growth rate
1988 1995 2003 2010 20180
5
10
15
20
25
the UKPublic health care expenditure percenta ( /government expenditure )GermanyPublic health care expenditure percenta ( /government expenditure )
Part One: Government (2) Impact on technology
19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
0.75
1.5
2.25
3
0
300
600
900
1200
the UK R&D Funding percentage(/GDP) Germany R&D Funding percentage(/GDP)the UK Fundings in R&Dbillions in $ Germany's Funding in R&Dbillions in $
(3) Efficiency
Income Distribution
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200.0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
62.5
GNIN of the UK GNINI of Germany
1991 1994 1995 1999 2004 2007 20107 7 6 6 7 6 6
12 12 12 11 11 11 11
16 16 16 16 16 16 16
23 22 23 23 22 23 23
43 44 43 44 44 44 44
the UK 1st income sharethe UK 2nd income sharethe UK 3rd income sharethe UK 4th income sharethe UK 5th income share
1984 1989 1994 2000 2004 2007 2010
9 9 8 9 8 8 8
14 13 13 13 13 13 13
17 17 17 17 17 17 17
23 23 23 23 22 22 22
38 38 38 38 40 40 39
Germany 1st income shareGermany 2nd income shareGermany 3rd income shareGermany 4th income shareGermany 5th income share
DirectlyAs an input to the process of economic activity
IndirectlyThrough other factors of production.
Natural environment
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
the UKGDP ( billions in $ )GermanyGDP ( billions in $ )
Natural environment
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
5.5
11
16.5
22
27.5
the UKCO2 emission ( MT per capital ) GermanyCO2 emission ( MT per capital )
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
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1983
1984
1985
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1987
1988
1989
1990
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1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
1250
2500
3750
5000
the UK Energy Usage(oil equivalent(kg) per capital )Germany Energy Usage(oil equivalent(kg) per capital )
Potential for UK’s Economic Growth
Infrastructure
Labor productivity has flattened out since 2007.
Infrastructure is a key driver of productivity, as it improves efficiency via logistics, information etc..
Figure: Labor productivity flatted out(Index 2007= 100)
Figure: gross government investment on infrastructure, compared to peer countriesFigure: quality of general infrastructure of the UK
InfrastructureFocus on:
Transportation infrastructure:Road/Railway & Air/Sea
(connecting UK, an island country, to the outside world)
Attracting private finance(without long term plan-
>uncertainty, bank lending)
Figure: quality of transportation infrastructure
Industry ChoiceComparative advantage & history
Different market positioning with developing countryTraditional competitive industries
Focus on high quality, design, innovationHigh-end clients, high premium(溢价 )More input into research & development
Future-orientedMay not profit right nowBio-industry, gene, environment, low-carbon, etc.
Export services rather than goodsFinancial services & education services
Industry ChoiceAutomotive
has a world-class reputation for design and innovation, especially in premium brandsStrengthen the advantage in technology and innovation, more support for R&DCreate a longer-term automotive supply-chainDevelop free trade agreement and non-tariff to exportlow-carbon vehicles
Education
2011: overseas students studying in higher education in the UK paid £10.2bn in tuition fees and living expensesBoost the local economy and enhance UK’s cultural lifeEmerging economies: 13% in China, 11% in India and 10% in Brazil
Industry ChoiceGreen technology & services
Industrial expertise and research strengths in biotechnology, maths, advanced materials, control systems, electronics, engine technology and energy management drives growth.
Market share grew in real terms by 2.3% in 2010, faster than the global average
Currently delivers a trade surplus of 5 billion pounds. By 2014-15, green growth is expected to halve the UK’s trade deficit(CBI analysis)
Creative industries
Music, literature and film
Exceeded by America
Explore international market, enhance digital literacy through the education system
Thank you for your listening!