Uk economic outlook april 2015

The Saturday Economist

UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page �1

The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q2 2015 (April update) Leisure and Construction driving recovery … now with investment boost



The UK recovery continues. We expect growth of 3.0% in 2015 … slowing to 2.9% in 2016.

In this April economics update we forecast world growth of 2.9% in 2015 increasing to 3.1% in 2016. UK Inflation will average just 0.5%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output also rise.

We are forecasting a modest increase in manufacturing of around 2.5% with a 5.5% increase in construction activity as the strong housing market recovery continues. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a potential £4 billion oil dividend, as a result of the oil price collapse. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term. For the moment, the Dollar and the Swiss Franc remain the traders favourites with the Euro under pressure as the QE placebo unwinds slowly across Euro land.

The collapse in oil prices has significantly changed the world outlook for growth and inflation over 2015. Growth estimates for oil importers have been revised upwards and the fortunes of oil exporters have been revised down as a result.

The inflation outlook is much more benign with fears of deflation continuing to overhang the recovery in Europe.

In the UK we expect the economy to grow by 3.0% in 2015 following growth of 2.8% last year. In the US the recovery continues with growth of 3.1% expected in the year ahead.

We expect base rates to rise in 2015 Q3 …


Contents Chapter 1 The World Economy page 4

Chapter 2 World Trade and Oil Prices page 6

Chapter 3 UK Economics Growth in UK GDP (O) Output page 7

Chapter 4 UK Economics Growth in UK GDP (E) Expenditure chained page 9

Chapter 5 UK Economics Growth - Investment - mind the gap? page 11

Chapter 6 UK trade in goods and services page 13

Chapter 7 Labour market trends page 14

Chapter 8 Government Borrowing page 15

Chapter 9 Inflation Outlook page 16

Chapter 10 Interest Rates - base rates and gilt yields page 17

Appendices page 18



Chapter 1 World Economy


Chart 1.1 : World GDP growth %

-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

• The world economy is expected to have grown by 2.6% in 2014. We forecast growth of 2.9% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016.

• Recovery in the USA and UK, will continue. We expect growth of 3.1% in US in 2015 slowing to 3.0% in 2016.

• Slower growth is expected in the oil producing economies of OPEC, Russia and Venezuela. The setback in Russia will be a particular problem with some analysts expecting the economy to shrink by -4%.

• On a regional basis, growth in Sub Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific region will continue at around 4.5%.

• Recovery in North America is expected to accelerate as US growth impacts on Mexico. In Canada, growth will moderate slightly as oil prices impact on oil output.

• In South America, we expect growth of just 1.6% with continuing problems in Venezuela, and Argentina. Slow growth in Brazil will impact on the regional performance.

• In Eastern Europe problems in Russia and the Ukraine, will weigh on the growth prospects for the region. Growth of just 0.2% is expected this year, rising to 1.8% in 2016.

• Growth in Western Europe will improve led by a recovery in Germany. We expect growth of 1.5% in 2015, increasing from 1.2% in 2014.

• In the Eurozone, we expect growth of 1.2% up from 0.8% in 2014. We do not expect much from any early QE expansion.

• World trade is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2016.

• World prices for energy, particularly oil, primary metals, food and manufactures will remain subdued.

• We expect oil prices to rally to $75 per barrel Brent Crude basis by the final quarter of 2015. cf a forecast average - $60 in Q1 2015.

• Overall the recovery in the world economy will continue, with limited acceleration in price levels through this year.

Chart 1.2: World Trade growth %

-16.0-12.0-8.0-4.00.04.08.0

12.016.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 … the recovery continues.


The estimates are produced with heavy reliance on world trade forecasts from the European Union, the IMF, the OECD, the World Bank and the NIESR world model. Additional data is derived from the USA Bureau of Economic Affairs. World trade data is developed from the CPB World Trade Monitor, produced by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. We also utilise the Consensus Economics data : Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Eastern Europe. The Top Ten economies in the world account for approximately two thirds of global GDP.

Table 1 World Economy GDP Growth %Top Ten Markets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

United States 2.5 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.0

China 10.4 9.4 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2

Japan 4.7 -0.4 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.3 1.5

Germany 4.0 3.3 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.8

France 1.6 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5

Brazil 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.5 0.1 0.2 1.0

United Kingdom 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.8

Italy 1.7 0.6 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 0.5 1.1

Russia 4.5 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -4.1 0.5

India 7.5 6.7 4.5 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.6

World GDP 4.5 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0

World Trade % 14.6 6.0 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8



Chapter 2 World Trade and Oil Prices …

… no worries about inflation.


Chart 2.3 :World Commodity Prices

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 2.1 : Oil Prices $ per barrel

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

• Oil price Brent Crude basis averaged $99 per barrel in 2014, falling to $50 in the final quarter of the year.

• We expect oil prices to remain around $55 in the first quarter of 2015 rising to $85 (Brent Crude basis) by the end of the year.

• World trade prices fell by -1.0% in 2013 and by an estimated -1.6 % in 2014.

• We expect world trade prices to remain under pressure falling by a further -1.5% in 2015 recovering to 0.5% growth in 2016.

• We believe basic metal prices including, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and iron have reached a basic floor level which will lead to a moderate recovery by 2016.

• Precious metals, gold, si lver and p l a t i n u m h a v e d e m o n s t r a t e d consolidation with gold trading at around $1,200 in January 2015.

• World commodity prices, excluding fuel (chart 2.3) have been extremely volatile increasing by over 25% in 2006 and 2010.

• In 2013, commodity prices fell by 4.7% with a further fall of 2.2% 2014. We expect prices to stabilise in 2015 with a strong rally in 2016.

• Trends in world trade, world trade prices and commodity prices continue to suggest a modest world recovery, derived of growth in Europe, with no inflationary pressure evident.

Chart 2.2 : World Trade Prices

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015


Chapter 3 Growth in UK GDP (O) Output


• We model UK GDP growth in the first instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model. On this basis we employ more conventional business modelling techniques including, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern recognition and econometrics.

• We also utilise the Manchester Index® as part of our “nowcasting” model, producing a short term steer on directions within the UK and Greater Manchester economy.

• Following growth of 1.7% in 2013 and growth of 2.8% in 2014, we now expect growth of 3.0% in 2015, slowing to 2.9% in 2016.

• The service sector will continue to underpin growth in the economy. Following growth of 3.0% in 2014, we expect service sector growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.

• Construction output, driven by developments in housing and infrastructure, is expected to increase by 5.5% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016, following revised growth of 7.5% in 2014.

• Manufacturing output remains almost 5% below the peaks registered in 2008 prior to recession.

• Following an increase in manufacturing output of 3.0% in 2014, we expect growth of 2.5% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016.

• Within the service sector, the leisure sector is expected to show strong growth along with a strong performance in business services, transport and finance.

• Overall, the UK will experience strong growth in output over the next two years. [We estimate the long term trend rate of growth to be 2.7% following latest data revisions. We do not share concerns about UK productivity.]

• The service sector will continue to underpin growth in the UK assisted by developments in manufacturing and construction. The surge in housing building activity is expected to continue into the year.

Chart 3.1 : UK GDP growth %

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 3.2 : Service Sector %

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

… our overall forecast for growth in 2015 is 3.0%.


Full details and charts of the GDP(O) forecasts are available in the appendix dataThe forecast is broadly consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 31st March 2015.

Table 3 UK GDP (O) Growth %Key Sectors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Agriculture … -0.7 8.5 -4.6 -3.9 2.1 3.0 3.0

Extractives -2.4 -14.2 -10.8 -2.5 -0.6 -4.5 -3.0

Manufacturing 4.2 1.8 -1.3 -0.7 3.0 2.5 2.5

Electricity, Gas 4.0 -6.2 -0.8 0.3 -5.5 2.6 2.5

Water, Sewage -1.3 5.3 -0.9 3.3 0.2 1.4 1.5

Total Production 2.9 -0.8 -2.7 -0.5 1.6 1.4 1.6

Construction 8.3 2.1 -7.5 1.4 7.5 5.5 5.2

Service Sector

Leisure 1.0 1.9 1.5 3.5 4.8 3.9 3.7

Transport 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 2.5 4.0 3.5

Business et al 0.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 3.8 4.0 3.8

Education, Hth 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.3 1.1 1.0 1.1

Total Services 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.1 3.0

Total GDP (O) 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.9



Chapter 4 Growth in UK GDP (E) - Expenditure chained measure


• We continue to offer little hope for the rebalancing agenda in our forecasts for growth in expenditure.

• Household expenditure increased by 2.5% in 2014. We expect growth of 2.6% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016 as real income growth impacts.

• Government expenditure increased by 1.7% in 2014. Government expenditure is expected to increase by 2.0% in 2015, slowing to 1.8% in 2016.

• Investment increased by 7.8% in 2014. We expect growth of 5.0% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016.

• Domestic expenditure increased by 3.3% in 2014 with a significant contribution from inventory build. We expect growth of 2.6% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016.

• Net trade will continue to have a negative impact on growth, with exports increasing at a slightly slower rate than imports.

• We expect exports to increase by 2.5% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016 following growth of just 0.6% in 2014..

• Imports increased by 2.2% in 2014. We expect growth of 2.6% in 2015 increasing to 2.8% in the following year.

• Our GDP Expenditure model is consistent and balanced with the ONS data. We forecast GDP(E) growth of 2.9% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2015.

• The trade deficit will continue to be have a negative impact on UK GDP but of itself will not be a constraint to growth.

• We continue to caution on the overall current account deficit. In the final quarter of 2014 the deficit averaged 6.0% of GDP.

• *We estimate a 10% fall in the oil price is worth some £1 billion to the UK trade account. The UK may experience a £5 billion boost to net trade as a result of the oil price.

Chart 4.1 : Households %

-4.0

-2.4

-0.8

0.8

2.4

4.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 4.2 : Investment %

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

… our investment outlook has improved slightly.


Table 4 UK GDP (E) Expenditure Chained Measure %Expenditure 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Households 0.5 -0.1 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.5

NPIs -1.4 3.7 -6.2 0.7 0.9 2.2 2.0

Government 0.0 0.0 2.3 -0.3 1.7 2.0 1.8

Investment 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 7.8 5.0 5.2

Inventories - - - - - - -

Domestic Exp 2.7 0.3 1.4 1.8 3.3 2.6 2.8

Total Exports 6.2 -1.2 7.6 1.5 0.6 2.5 2.7

Gross Final Exp 3.4 0.0 2.8 1.7 2.7 2.6 2.8

Total Imports 8.7 -7.1 12.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.8

GDP 1.9 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.9


Chart 4.4 : Exports %

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Chart 4.5 : Imports %

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Chart 4.3 : Domestic Expenditure %

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Chapter 5 UK Economics Growth - Investment - QES data Q4!


• The basis and methodology for the calculation of investment has been revised.

• Investment grew by 7.8% in 2014. We forecast growth of 5.0% in 2015, and 5.2% in 2016.

• According to survey data, firms are more confident about turnover and profits.

• This provides more confidence about the likely path of demand and ROI over the short term. Charts 5.1 and charts 5.2.

• Capacity - capacity utilisation levels are returning to the levels last seen prior to the recession in 2008. Charts 5.3.

• Investment intentions have increased significantly in the latest survey data, particularly in the manufacturing sector 5.4.

• We model investment as a function of capacity utilisation and investment intentions with a lag of 4 and 2 quarters respectively.

Chart 5.1 Manufacturers Confidence

-70

-52.5

-35

-17.5

0

17.5

35

52.5

70

2005 2008 2011 2014

Turnover Profits

Chart 5.2 Service Sector Confidence

-35

-17.5

0

17.5

35

52.5

70

2005 2008 2011 2014

Turnover Profits

Chart 5.3 Capacity Utilisation

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

2005 2008 2011 2014

Service Sector Manufacturing

Chart 5.4 Investment Intentions

-30

-22.5

-15

-7.5

0

7.5

15

22.5

30

2005 2008 2011 2014

Service Sector Manufacturing

Chart Data from Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey Q1 2015.The Manchester Index™ - nowcasting the UK economy.



Chapter 6 - UK trade in goods and services

… heading in the wrong direction.


Chapter 6 UK Trade in goods and services


Chart 6.1 : Trade in Goods

-150.0

-125.0

-100.0

-75.0

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-25.0

0.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 6.2 : Trade in Services

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 6.3 : Trade in Goods & Services

-50.0

-41.7

-33.3

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-16.7

-8.3

0.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Balance Trade in Goods and Services £ billion

• We model exports as a function of world trade and relative prices. A model in which we find the demand terms dominant.

• We model imports as a function of domestic demand, or total final expenditure and a relative price term. Here the demand term is dominant with relative price inelasticity. There is little or no substitution effect.

• The trade in goods deficit increased to £112.6 billion in 2013 and £119.6 in 2014

• We forecast the deficit to rise to £120.2 billion in 2015 and £130 billion 2016.

• The trade in services surplus was £78.9 billion in 2013, an increase of 6% on the prior year level.

• The trade in services surplus increased to £87.3 billion in 2014. We forecast £89.5 billion in 2015 and £91.7 billion in 2016

• The surplus in services will continue to offset the structural trade deficit in goods.

• We expect the oil dividend to improve the deficit by around £4 billion in 2015.

• The trade in goods and services deficit slowed to £32.3 billion in 2014 down from £33.7 billion in the prior year.

• The central forecast is for the overall deficit to fall to £30.6 billion in 2015 rising to £38.8 billion in 2016.

• The ongoing deficit, measured at 2% of GDP will not of itself, create a problem for sterling. The current account deficit at around 6% of GDP will however, present a challenge to sterling and growth eventually.

… the trade deficit will continue to disappoint.


Chapter 7 Labour Market Trends


Chart 7.1 : Claimant Count 000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 7.2 : LFS Count 000

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 7.3 : LFS Rate %

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015• The claimant count has fallen significantly

over the last twelve months as the economy grew by 1.7% (2013) and 2.6% in 2014.

• The reduction was 370,000 through the year, 2014 ahead of most estimates and forecasts.

• Over the last three months to December 2014, the claimant count has fallen by 84,000 to a level of 868,000.

• We forecast a further fall in the claimant count rate from an average 1.032 million in 2014 to 699,00 in 2015.

• The LFS count unemployment in the final quarter of 2014 is forecast to be around 1.93 million.

• This is a reduction of over 400,00 over the last twelve months.

• We expect levels to fall to 1.8 million by the final quarter of 2015 and at least 1.6 million by the final quarter of 2016.

• We expect the unemployment rate (LFS basis) to fall from 5.8% at the end of 2014 to 4.8% by the end of 2015 and 4.4% by the end of 2016. .

• The unemployment rate is will average 6.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016.

• The average rate, in the precession period was just 5.5%.

• On current trends our forecasts suggests “spare capacity” may be exhausted by the second quarter of 2015 (LFS basis).

• The claimant count data however, suggests the average unemployment rate of 3% in the period 2005 - 2008 has already been achieved. This will place additional pressure on the pay round and earnings into 2015.


Chapter 8 Government Borrowing

£ Billion 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Borrowing 153.0 134.0 112.8 119.4 97.3 90.2 75.3 39.4 12.8 -5.2 -7.0

Debt 956.4 1,101.1 1,191.0 1,299.0 1,402.1 1,479 1,533 1,580 1,606 1,617 1,627.0


Chart 8.1 : Borrowing £ billion

020406080

100120140160

2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19

• Government borrowing in the twelve months to March 2014 is estimated to be £97.3 billion compared to £119.4 billion in the prior fiscal year.

• Following the release of the February 2015 data, the government is on track to meet the OBR target of £90.2 in financial year 2014/5.

• Total debt, is forecast to be just under £1.500 trillion at the end of the current financial year.

• Rising to £1.580trillion at the end of 2016/17…

• … peaking at £1.627 trillion at the end of the current forecast cycle 2019/20.

• As a % of GDP debt is forecast to be 81.6% at the end of the current year 2014/15

• Falling to 80.7% in 2015/16, 79.2% in 2016/17 and 76.7% in 2017/18.

• Information derived from OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2015. ONS data : Public Sector Finances February 2015, released 20th March 2015.

Chart 8.2 : Total Debt £ billion

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19

Chart 8.3 : Total Debt % GDP

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19


Chapter 9 Inflation Outlook


Chart 9.1 : CPI Inflation

0.0

1.0

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3.0

4.0

5.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 9.2 : Manufacturing Prices (O)

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 9.3 : Manufacturing Prices (I)

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0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

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25.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 9.4 : Earnings

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 9.5 : Money Supply Narrow

0.0

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6.0

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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 9.6 : Money Supply M4

-5.0

0.0

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15.0

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

We expect CPI inflation to average 0.5% in 2015 rising to 2.2% in 2016 …

Manufacturing prices - 0.2% in 2014, falling by -0.5% in 2015 then up 2.8%.

Input prices fell by -6.6% 2014, we forecast -9.3% in 2015 and +8.4%

Earnings are expected to average 1.4% in 2014 rising to 2.8% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016.

Narrow money growth, notes and coins increased by 4.3% in 2014. We expect growth of 5.0% in 2015 slowing to 4.6% in 2016.

Broad money is expected to have increased by 3.7% in 2014, rising to 4.0% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016.


Chapter 10 Interest rates - base rates and gilt yields

Table 10 - Base rates and Gilt Yields

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Base 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50

Gilts 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5


We expect UK base rates to remain on hold through the first half of 2015 there after rising to 1% by the end of the year and 2% by the end of 2016.

Gilt yields have rallied from the sub 2% lows in 2013. We expect yields to return to fair value 4.5% within the forecast period by the end of 2017.

Chart 10.2 10 year Gilt Rates

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Chart 10.1 UK Base Rates

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

HIgher event Base Case


Appendix 1 Gross domestic product : expenditure at current market prices : ONS C1



Appendix 2 Gross domestic product : chained volume measure : ONS C2



Appendix 3 Gross domestic product : chained volume measure : ONS B1



Appendix 4 Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Inflation and Labour Market Data



Appendix 5 Economic Forecast OverviewOutturn

2010Outturn

2011Outturn

2012Outturn

2013 Outurn 2014

Forecast 2015

Forecast 2016

GDP Real Growth % 1.6 1.2 0.3 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.9

GDP Levels (2011 = 100) 98.3 100.0 100.7 102.2 105.1 108.2 111.4

GDP(E) at market prices £Bill 1,558.4 1,617.7 1,655.4 1,713.1 1,791.5 1,878.7 1,967.8

Household Consumption 0.5 -0.1 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.5

Business Investment 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 7.8 5.0 5.2

Government Consumption 0.0 0.0 2.3 -0.3 1.7 2.0 1.8

Domestic Expenditure 2.7 0.3 1.4 1.8 3.3 2.6 2.8

Exports 6.2 -1.2 7.6 1.5 0.6 2.5 2.7

Imports 8.7 -7.1 12.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.5

Net Trade % GDP current -2.4 -1.5 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1

Inflation

CPI 3.3 4.5 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.5 2.2

Labour Market

Employment Millions 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.5

Average Earnings 2.4 2.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.3 2.8

LFS unemployment rate 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.3 5.7 5.1

Claimant Count Millions 1.50 1.53 1.59 1.42 1.03 0.70 -


The forecast is broadly consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 31st March 2015.



About the Author

John Ashcroft is author of the weekly Saturday Economist and Chief Economist for Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce. He is Chief Executive of pro.manchester, a member of the AGMA Business Leadership Council, the Council of the GM Chamber of Commerce and a visiting professor at Manchester Metropolitan University.

Educated at the London School of Economics, with a PhD in economics, his specialist subjects include economics, corporate strategy, business modelling and social media. Economics specialisms include the UK balance of payments, international trade, interest rates and exchange rates modelling.

John Ashcroft (PhD) BSc.(Econ) FRSA, CBIM

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The forecast is broadly consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 31st March 2015.

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