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No. 295November 2011
compiled by the Macroeconomic Prospects Teamhm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts
Forecasts for the UK economy:a comparison of independent forecasts
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© Crown copyright 2011
You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: [email protected].
ISBN 978-1-84532-913-6 PU797
100%
CONTENTSMedium-term forecasts, November 2011
Page
Summary Page: Short-term forecasts 3
Table 1 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 4
Table 2 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 5
Table 3 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 6
Table 4 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 7
Table 5 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 8
Table 6 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 9
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 10
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account and PSNB (2011-12) 11
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 12
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2012-13) 13
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months 14
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2011-12) made in last 3 months 15
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months 16
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-13) made in last 3 months 17
Summary Page: Medium-term Forecasts 18
Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflator
Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contribution
Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflation
Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rate
Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemployment
Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflation
Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current account
Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNB
Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gap 23
Average of medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, CPI inflation and claimant unemployment 24
Average of medium-term forecasts for the current account and PSNB 25
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables 26
Annex 2: Data definitions 27
Annex 3: Notation used in tables 28
Annex 4: Organisation contact details 29
Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any
purpose without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury.
Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and coordinated by Mohammad Jamei. Please direct enquiries on the content of this
issue to Mohammad Jamei (020 7270 5404, [email protected]).
The next edition will be published on 21st December 2011. It will also be available on the Treasury’s website:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts.
PU797 ISBN 978-1-84532-913-6
19
20
21
22
Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves
and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to
review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no
responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
The averages and ranges in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately
and not used in a misleading context. The data remain the copyright of those organisations providing it - permission to reproduce it must be
sought from both HM Treasury and the providers of the original data.
Forecasts for 2011
November October Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 4.7 4.6 4.2 5.0 4.8
- RPI 5.3 5.3 4.8 5.7 5.4
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.62 1.61 1.51 1.76 1.62
Current account (£bn) -22.4 -32.4 -62.9 -3.3 -18.2
PSNB (2011-12: £bn) 128.0 128.1 110.0 146.0 127.8
Forecasts for 2012
N b O b L Hi h
Average of
new*
forecasts
Averages November
FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY
This edition of the comparison contains 21 new forecasts, all of which were received between November 1st and
November 11th 2011. The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2011 and
2012 and show the average of this month’s new forecasts.
A comparison of independent forecasts, November 2011
Independent+
Independent+Average of
new*
forecasts
Averages November
November October Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 1.2 1.5 -0.4 2.3 1.0
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 2.2 2.2 0.7 3.4 2.2
- RPI 2.8 2.9 0.8 4.0 2.7
Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.70 1.65 1.40 1.98 1.74
Current account (£bn) -17.7 -25.6 -43.2 27.5 -14.5
PSNB (2012-13: £bn) 112.8 110.7 85.0 146.4 112.1
+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months
(November: 21 institutions, October: 7 institutions, September: 3 institutions).
*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see
notation).
forecasts
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 3
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 1.3 -1.0 0.4 1.5 -0.1 - - - 1.6 -Barclays Capital Nov * 0.9 -1.2 1.7 -1.7 -0.2 -0.8 5.3 -0.1 1.6 -Capital Economics Nov * 0.8 -1.5 1.5 -1.5 0.1 -0.8 4.5 -0.1 0.4 -Citigroup Nov * 0.9 -1.1 2.3 -2.6 -0.3 -0.7 5.7 0.7 1.6 -Commerzbank Nov * 0.9 -1.3 2.2 -1.1 -0.2 -0.6 4.8 0.3 1.3 -2.3Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 7.9 1.9 1.5 -3.2Deutsche Bank Nov * 1.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 4.9 1.2 1.0 -Goldman Sachs Nov * 1.0 -1.0 1.7 -0.8 -0.3 -0.7 5.4 0.2 1.5 -3.7 kHSBC Nov * 1.0 -0.8 1.8 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4 4.2 -0.2 - -ING Financial Markets Nov * 0.9 -1.4 1.6 -1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.9 0.8 1.6 -J P Morgan Jul 1.1 -0.9 0.3 1.9 0.0 - 7.2 1.5 1.5 -Lombard Street Jul 1.8 0.1 0.8 3.5 0.1 0.9 9.7 5.5 0.9 -3.2Morgan Stanley Oct 0.8 -1.3 1.4 -1.4 0.0 -0.7 5.8 0.5 1.5 -Nomura Nov * 0.9 -1.0 1.6 -1.8 0.0 -0.5 5.1 0.2 1.4 -2.3RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 1.0 -1.2 2.0 -1.3 - -0.5 5.0 0.5 1.5 -Schroders Investment Management Nov * 0.9 -1.1 3.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.6 5.6 0.8 1.4 -0.5Scotia Capital Oct 0.7 -1.8 1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -1.3 5.4 -0.3 1.7 -2.0Societe Generale Nov * 0.9 -1.4 2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.8 4.9 -0.3 1.5 -Standard Chartered Bank Sep 1.1 -0.1 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.5 6.4 3.7 0.6 -UBS Sep 1.1 -0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 7.5 2.6 1.2 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Oct 0.9 -1.2 0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.9 5.0 3.0 1.5 -1.5Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 0.9 -0.6 1.7 -1.2 0.1 -0.5 5.3 1.4 1.2 -Cambridge Econometrics Nov * 1.0 -1.2 1.7 -1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.5 0.6 1.4 -CBI Nov * 0.9 -1.2 1.7 -1.5 -0.3 -0.8 5.5 0.1 1.6 -CEBR Oct 0.6 -1.2 1.9 -2.3 -0.3 -0.8 4.4 0.3 1.2 -Economic Perspectives Nov * 1.6 -0.1 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.6 5.2 1.5 1.0 -Experian Business Strategies Oct 1.0 -0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.1 4.2 0.1 1.1 -EIU Nov * 0.8 -1.2 1.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 5.4 2.1 1.0 -IHS Global Insight Nov * 0.9 -0.8 1.4 -0.9 - -0.5 5.1 0.4 1.4 -ITEM Club Oct 0.9 -1.0 1.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4 5.6 0.7 1.4 -Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 1.5 1.5 c -2.9 m 5.4 d - - - - - -NIESR Nov * 0.9 -1.0 1.7 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 4.9 -0.2 1.5 -Oxford Economics Nov * 0.9 -1.2 1.6 -1.4 -0.2 -0.6 4.9 0.2 1.4 -1.6EC Nov * 0.7 -1.1 1.5 -1.6 -0.2 -0.6 5.1 0.2 1.4 -OECD Jun 1.4 ^ 0.2 0.2 1.7 0.0 0.4 8.0 4.0 0.9 -4.0IMF Sep 1.1 - - - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 1.0 -1.0 1.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.6 5.3 0.7 1.3 -1.7New (marked *) 1.0 -1.1 1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.6 5.1 0.4 1.3 -1.7City 0.9 -1.1 1.7 -1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.1 0.3 1.3 -2.3
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 1.6 -0.1 3.7 4.0 0.2 0.6 7.5 3.7 1.7 -0.5Lowest 0.6 -1.8 0.2 -2.6 -0.4 -1.3 4.2 -0.3 0.4 -2.3Median 0.9 -1.1 1.6 -1.2 -0.2 -0.6 5.2 0.4 1.4 -1.8
OBR Mar 0.8 0.2 1.1
Out
put
Gap
(as
% o
f
pote
ntia
l GD
P)
-3.90.71.7 0.6
^ OECD growth forecast is from the May 2011 OECD Economic Outlook. The OECD's Spetember 2011 Interim Economic Outlook forecast is for GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in
2011.
Cha
nge
in in
vent
ori
es
cont
ribu
tio
n (%
of
GD
P)
To
tal i
mpo
rts
5.0
Do
mes
tic
dem
and
Table 1 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)
GD
P
Pri
vate
co
nsum
ptio
n
Go
vern
men
t
cons
umpt
ion
7.9
Net
tra
de
cont
ribu
tio
n (%
of
GD
P)
Fix
ed in
vest
men
t
2.3
To
tal e
xpo
rts
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 4
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 4.5 5.0 - 2.4 - 0.75 - -
Barclays Capital Nov * 4.8 5.6 5.7 0.8 - 0.50 - -
Capital Economics Nov * 5.0 5.4 5.4 2.7 82.6 0.50 100.0 -1.0
Citigroup Nov * 4.8 5.4 5.6 2.8 78.0 0.50 113.5 -
Commerzbank Nov * 4.9 5.2 5.4 2.6 79.6 0.50 109.1 -0.9
Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 4.0 5.0 4.6 2.0 78.5 0.50 110.0 2.6
Deutsche Bank Nov * 4.8 5.5 - 3.0 78.5 0.50 112.0 -0.7
Goldman Sachs Nov * 4.7 5.3 5.2 2.7 81.0 g - 111.0 9.6 k
HSBC Nov * 4.7 5.3 - 2.2 - 0.50 - -
ING Financial Markets Nov * 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.7 - 0.50 115.0 1.0
J P Morgan Jul 4.6 5.2 4.4 - - - - -
Lombard Street Jul 4.5 5.0 - 2.7 - 0.50 - 2.8
Morgan Stanley Oct 4.5 5.2 5.3 2.9 - 0.50 - -
Nomura Nov * 4.9 5.4 5.5 2.3 - 0.50 110.0 -
RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 5.0 5.6 5.7 2.8 79.6 0.50 112.0 -
Schroders Investment Management Nov * 5.0 5.4 5.6 - - 0.50 - -
Scotia Capital Oct 4.9 5.4 5.5 2.7 - 0.50 - -
Societe Generale Nov * 4.8 5.0 5.2 2.3 80.0 0.50 108.0 -
Standard Chartered Bank Sep 4.2 - - - - 0.50 113.0 -
UBS Sep 4.7 5.4 5.5 2.1 - 0.50 - -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Oct 4.6 5.4 5.5 2.7 - 0.50 105.0 -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 4.6 4.9 5.2 2.7 79.5 0.50 110.9 2.2
Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - - - - -
CBI Nov * 5.0 5.5 5.5 2.4 79.6 0.50 111.7 -
CEBR Oct 4.5 4.8 5.0 2.4 -2.0 w 0.50 105.0 -
Economic Perspectives Nov * 4.5 5.5 5.3 2.5 75.0 0.50 95.0 3.0
Experian Business Strategies Oct 4.2 5.5 5.1 2.5 80.2 0.50 107.9 -
EIU Nov * 4.9 5.4 5.2 2.4 78.0 0.50 108.5 -
IHS Global Insight Nov * 4.9 5.4 5.4 2.3 - 0.50 110.9 -
ITEM Club Oct 4.8 5.0 5.2 -3.0 79.6 0.90 - -1.1
Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 4.4 - 5.0 5.4 79.4 - - -
NIESR Nov * 4.5 5.7 5.1 1.1 j 80.5 k 0.50 108.7 n -
Oxford Economics Nov * 4.7 5.0 5.2 1.3 81.0 0.50 110.2 -1.6
EC Nov * 4.2 - - 2.0 - - 111.1 -
OECD Jun 3.9 - - - - - 80.0 -
IMF Sep 4.5 h - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 4.7 5.3 5.4 2.3 79.3 0.5 109.0 0.1
New (marked *) 4.8 5.4 5.4 2.5 79.2 0.5 109.2 0.0
City 4.8 5.4 5.5 2.4 79.7 0.5 110.1 -0.4
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 5.0 5.7 5.7 5.4 82.6 0.90 115.0 3.0
Lowest 4.2 4.8 5.0 -3.0 75.0 0.50 95.0 -1.6
Median 4.7 5.4 5.4 2.5 79.6 0.50 110.5 -0.8
OBR Mar 4.7 3.9 2.0 81.1 - 113.0 i -
3.9
Table 2 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
CP
I (Q
4)
RP
I (Q
4)
RP
IX (
Q4)
Ave
rage
ear
nin
gs
Ste
rlin
g in
dex
(Q
4)
(Jan
200
5=10
0)
Off
icia
l Ban
k ra
te
(Q4,
%)
Oil
pri
ce (
Bre
nt,
$/b
bl)
M4
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 5
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul - - 0.7 1.60 3.1 - -27.0 200.0 125.0
Barclays Capital Nov * 0.6 y -2.0 0.5 1.54 2.7 - -10.5 275.0 127.6
Capital Economics Nov * -2.0 y -2.0 0.3 1.60 2.8 6.0 -20.0 275.0 130.0 s
Citigroup Nov * -1.2 xy -2.6 -0.3 1.66 2.2 - -3.3 200.0 133.2
Commerzbank Nov * 1.3 y -1.1 0.7 1.63 2.8 5.8 -24.5 275.0 132.0
Daiwa Capital Markets Jul -3.1 z -2.6 0.5 1.55 3.1 - -33.0 200.0 132.0
Deutsche Bank Nov * -1.0 xy -1.0 - 1.63 2.9 - -38.4 250.0 125.0
Goldman Sachs Nov * - - 0.1 1.51 3.0 - -4.3 - 121.0
HSBC Nov * - - - - 2.2 - -27.3 - 122.0
ING Financial Markets Nov * -4.5 x -1.5 0.0 1.60 2.4 - -29.0 275.0 126.0
J P Morgan Jul - - - - - - -22.4 - 118.0
Lombard Street Jul -2.5 k -0.5 0.3 - - - -29.6 200.0 125.0
Morgan Stanley Oct - -1.0 0.5 - 2.1 - - 275.0 128.3
Nomura Nov * -0.1 z - -0.2 - - - -11.2 - 125.0
RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * - -0.5 0.6 1.66 3.8 - -17.0 275.0 126.0
Schroders Investment Management Nov * -2.3 x - - - - - - 245.0 -
Scotia Capital Oct 0.6 y - 0.4 1.67 2.1 - - 275.0 -
Societe Generale Nov * -0.7 x - 0.4 1.67 2.8 - -14.0 250.0 128.0
Standard Chartered Bank Sep - - - 1.60 - - - 200.0 125.0
UBS Sep - - - 1.52 2.4 - -29.9 - 110.0
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Oct 0.5 x - - 1.65 2.5 4.5 o -34.0 275.0 126.9
Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 0.7 z - -0.3 1.62 2.5 6.6 -22.3 275.0 132.9
Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - 3.0 - - - -
CBI Nov * -0.7 z -2.0 -0.1 1.64 2.8 - -10.3 - 129.5
CEBR Oct -0.9 k -1.6 -0.1 1.60 2.3 - - 275.0 146.0
Economic Perspectives Nov * -2.0 x -1.5 0.6 1.60 2.2 7.0 -26.0 200.0 132.0
Experian Business Strategies Oct -0.9 z -2.2 -0.4 1.76 2.3 - -62.9 - 129.2
EIU Nov * - -2.0 0.2 1.66 2.6 - -24.2 275.0 129.0
IHS Global Insight Nov * -2.1 x -2.5 0.4 1.65 2.3 - -16.2 275.0 129.5
ITEM Club Oct - - 0.7 1.53 3.0 7.6 -38.3 - 128.6
Liverpool Macro Research Nov * - - - - - - -18.0 - 120.2
NIESR Nov * -1.0 hz -1.8 0.5 2.54 hp - 7.0 -18.5 - 141.6
Oxford Economics Nov * -0.7 z -1.9 -0.2 1.64 3.1 7.4 -14.5 - 125.2
EC Nov * - - 0.9 7.90 hq - - -2.5 a - 8.6 a
OECD Jun - - - 8.10 hq - - -1.5 a - 8.7 ah
IMF Sep - - - 7.80 hq - 7.5 -2.7 a - - ah
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent -0.9 -1.7 0.2 1.6 2.6 6.9 -22.4 258.1 128.0
New (marked *) -1.2 -1.7 0.3 1.6 2.7 6.6 -18.2 255.8 127.8
City -0.9 -1.5 0.2 1.6 2.8 5.9 -18.1 259.4 126.6
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 1.3 -0.5 0.9 1.76 3.8 7.6 -3.3 275.0 146.0
Lowest -4.5 -2.6 -0.4 1.51 2.1 5.8 -62.9 200.0 110.0
Median -0.9 -1.8 0.4 1.63 2.6 7.0 -20.0 275.0 128.0
OBR Mar -2.3 hz -0.4 -0.1 1.56 6.9 -41 - 122
Ho
use
pric
e in
flati
on
(Q4)
-
Table 3 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Rea
l ho
useh
old
disp
osa
ble
inco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t gr
ow
th
Cla
iman
t
unem
plo
ymen
t
(Q4,
mill
ions
)
Man
ufac
turi
ng o
utpu
t
Wo
rld
trad
e in
go
ods
and
serv
ices
Cur
rent
acc
oun
t (£
bn)
Siz
e o
f AP
F p
urch
ases
(£bn
)
PS
NB
(£b
n 20
11-1
2)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 6
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 2.3 1.4 -1.3 5.6 0.1 - - - 0.7 -
Barclays Capital Nov * 1.5 0.5 -0.9 5.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.6 0.4 -
Capital Economics Nov * 0.0 -1.5 -0.5 3.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -1.0 0.1 -
Citigroup Nov * 0.7 0.1 0.5 -2.1 -0.1 -0.3 5.1 1.9 1.0 -
Commerzbank Nov * 1.2 0.6 -0.5 3.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 1.7 0.3 -2.7
Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 1.7 0.8 -2.0 5.5 -0.1 0.9 6.7 3.6 0.8 -3.7
Deutsche Bank Nov * 1.3 1.0 -1.2 2.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.2 0.4 -
Goldman Sachs Nov * 1.3 1.2 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.3 -3.0 k
HSBC Nov * 1.3 1.2 -0.8 4.5 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 - -
ING Financial Markets Nov * 0.8 0.0 -1.6 4.7 0.3 0.6 7.2 6.5 0.1 -
J P Morgan Jul 2.4 1.5 -1.0 8.2 0.2 - 6.5 4.0 0.6 -
Lombard Street Jul 2.3 1.4 -1.0 6.1 -0.2 1.4 5.6 2.4 0.9 -2.8
Morgan Stanley Oct 1.1 0.4 -1.6 2.6 0.0 0.3 5.0 2.1 0.9 -
Nomura Nov * 1.5 1.4 -1.0 3.7 0.3 1.5 3.9 3.7 0.0 -2.1
RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 1.0 0.4 -0.2 2.8 - 0.7 2.9 1.9 0.3 -
Schroders Investment Management Nov * -0.4 0.1 3.2 1.5 -0.3 0.0 -3.3 -2.1 -0.3 -1.0
Scotia Capital Oct 0.7 -0.5 -0.8 4.5 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.4 0.6 -2.7
Societe Generale Nov * 0.7 -0.5 -0.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 0.5 0.6 -
Standard Chartered Bank Sep 1.9 1.6 -1.1 4.5 0.4 1.6 6.2 4.8 0.3 -
UBS Sep 1.5 1.4 -1.1 4.0 0.1 1.3 6.9 5.8 0.2 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Oct 1.6 0.5 -0.9 1.8 0.1 0.4 3.0 1.5 0.9 -1.3
Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 2.3 3.0 -0.9 6.2 0.5 2.9 8.4 9.9 -0.6 -
Cambridge Econometrics Nov * 1.5 0.9 -1.2 3.8 0.0 0.9 5.2 3.4 0.5 -
CBI Nov * 1.2 0.0 -1.1 3.2 0.1 0.4 4.3 1.7 0.8 -
CEBR Oct 0.7 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.1 -
Economic Perspectives Nov * 2.0 0.5 -1.2 9.2 0.0 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 -
Experian Business Strategies Oct 1.1 1.1 -1.7 1.7 0.1 0.6 3.5 1.7 0.5 -
EIU Nov * 0.7 0.4 -1.0 2.5 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.5 0.4 -
IHS Global Insight Nov * 0.8 0.9 -1.2 4.5 - 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.0 -
ITEM Club Oct 1.5 0.7 -1.0 5.1 0.1 1.0 5.4 4.1 0.4 -
Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 2.2 2.2 c -2.8 m 6.5 d - - - - - -
NIESR Nov * 0.8 0.7 -0.9 -4.9 0.0 -0.5 1.7 -2.4 1.3 -
Oxford Economics Nov * 1.0 0.5 -1.0 3.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 2.5 0.2 -1.5
EC Nov * 0.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.1 0.1 -0.4 3.4 0.5 0.9 -
OECD Jun 1.8 1.1 -0.7 4.2 0.1 1.2 6.1 3.7 0.6 -3.4
IMF Sep 1.6 - - - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 1.2 0.6 -0.7 2.9 0.1 0.7 3.4 2.1 0.4 -1.9
New (marked *) 1.0 0.4 -0.6 2.7 0.1 0.5 2.7 1.4 0.4 -1.8
City 1.0 0.4 -0.6 2.7 0.1 0.6 3.0 1.8 0.4 -2.4
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 2.3 3.0 3.2 9.2 0.5 2.9 8.4 9.9 1.3 -1.0
Lowest -0.4 -1.5 -1.7 -4.9 -0.3 -0.5 -3.3 -2.4 -0.6 -2.7
Median 1.2 0.5 -1.0 3.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 1.7 0.4 -1.8
OBR Mar -1.2 0.0 1.0 -3.6
Table 4 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)
GD
P
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Go
vern
men
t
con
sum
pti
on
Fix
ed in
vest
men
t
Ch
ange
in in
ven
tori
es
con
trib
uti
on
(%
of
GD
P)
Do
mes
tic
dem
and
To
tal e
xpo
rts
To
tal i
mp
ort
s
Net
tra
de
con
trib
uti
on
(% o
f G
DP
)
Ou
tpu
t G
ap (
as %
of
po
ten
tial
GD
P)
2.5 1.3 6.0 1.5 6.5 2.9
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 7
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 2.0 3.3 - 2.8 - 1.50 - -
Barclays Capital Nov * 2.3 3.3 3.9 2.7 - 0.50 - -
Capital Economics Nov * 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.5 82.2 0.50 85.0 1.0
Citigroup Nov * 2.4 3.4 3.5 2.2 78.0 0.50 118.5 -
Commerzbank Nov * 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 82.1 0.50 106.3 3.0
Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.0 79.0 0.50 105.0 3.2
Deutsche Bank Nov * 2.5 3.2 - 3.6 84.0 0.50 115.0 3.0
Goldman Sachs Nov * 1.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 81.0 g - 121.0 8.7 k
HSBC Nov * 1.9 2.9 - 2.4 - 0.50 - -
ING Financial Markets Nov * 1.3 2.3 2.0 3.0 - 0.50 120.0 6.0
J P Morgan Jul 2.9 4.0 2.4 - - - - -
Lombard Street Jul 1.6 2.4 - 3.5 - 1.00 - 4.6
Morgan Stanley Oct 2.6 3.3 3.3 2.9 - 0.01 - -
Nomura Nov * 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.7 - 0.50 102.0 -
RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.5 78.5 0.50 105.0 -
Schroders Investment Management Nov * 0.7 0.8 1.1 - - 0.50 - -
Scotia Capital Oct 2.1 3.4 3.3 2.5 - 0.50 - -
Societe Generale Nov * 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 82.0 0.50 100.0 -
Standard Chartered Bank Sep 1.7 - - - - 0.50 101.0 -
UBS Sep 2.6 3.3 3.0 2.6 - 0.50 - -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Oct 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 - 1.00 93.0 -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 1.6 2.0 2.1 3.0 74.8 1.80 110.5 4.6
Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - - - - -
CBI Nov * 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 79.8 0.50 116.0 -
CEBR Oct 1.8 2.7 2.8 1.5 3.5 w 0.50 80.0 -
Economic Perspectives Nov * 3.2 4.0 4.0 3.0 70.0 1.50 95.0 6.0
Experian Business Strategies Oct 2.7 1.9 3.1 2.1 80.7 0.50 102.3 -
EIU Nov * 3.4 3.6 3.7 2.7 77.1 0.50 94.5 -
IHS Global Insight Nov * 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 - 0.50 107.4 -
ITEM Club Oct 1.8 2.5 2.1 -0.5 78.7 1.10 - 0.9
Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 2.8 - 3.2 4.3 78.4 - - -
NIESR Nov * 1.7 2.5 2.1 3.3 j 80.8 k 0.50 113.1 n -
Oxford Economics Nov * 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.3 79.8 0.50 96.0 2.6
EC Nov * 2.5 - - 2.5 - - 103.8 -
OECD Jun 1.7 - - - - - 80.0 -
IMF Sep 2.4 h - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 79.0 0.6 103.6 3.4
New (marked *) 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.8 79.3 0.6 105.7 3.6
City 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 81.1 0.5 108.1 3.2
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.3 84.0 1.80 121.0 6.0
Lowest 0.7 0.8 1.1 -0.5 70.0 0.01 80.0 0.9
Median 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 79.3 0.50 103.0 3.0
OBR Mar 3.4 2.7 2.2 81.0 - 112.0 i -
Ste
rlin
g in
dex
(Q
4)
(Jan
200
5=10
0)
Off
icia
l Ban
k ra
te
(Q4,
%)
Oil
pri
ce (
Bre
nt,
$/b
bl)
M4
2.2
Table 5 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
CP
I (Q
4)
RP
I (Q
4)
RP
IX (
Q4)
Ave
rage
ear
nin
gs
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 8
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul - - 0.6 1.50 4.4 - -18.0 200.0 107.0Barclays Capital Nov * 4.4 y 0.7 0.0 1.64 1.1 - 2.9 275.0 111.2Capital Economics Nov * -5.0 y -2.0 -1.5 1.90 -1.2 3.0 -20.0 400.0 115.0 sCitigroup Nov * -1.8 xy -0.5 -0.6 1.76 1.4 - 27.5 500.0 125.5Commerzbank Nov * -0.8 y 1.3 -0.2 1.79 0.1 4.3 -28.7 350.0 113.0Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 1.7 z -0.4 -0.1 1.52 3.1 - -24.0 200.0 111.0Deutsche Bank Nov * -2.5 1.8 - 1.84 0.5 - -38.3 325.0 110.0Goldman Sachs Nov * - - 0.4 1.63 3.9 - 11.1 - 108.0HSBC Nov * - - - - 1.1 - -26.0 - 98.0ING Financial Markets Nov * -2.0 x 1.6 0.4 1.55 2.5 - -34.0 500.0 110.0J P Morgan Jul - - - - - - -9.9 - 91.0Lombard Street Jul 2.9 k 1.4 0.6 - - - -28.5 200.0 95.0Morgan Stanley Oct - 0.1 0.0 - 0.6 - - 325.0 104.0Nomura Nov * 2.4 z - 0.2 - - - -13.6 - 114.2RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * - 0.3 -0.3 1.83 0.6 - -9.0 325.0 108.0Schroders Investment Management Nov * -5.7 x - - - - - - 400.0 -Scotia Capital Oct 2.4 y - -0.2 1.73 0.8 - - 350.0 -Societe Generale Nov * -2.0 x - -1.2 1.98 0.7 - -12.0 350.0 123.0Standard Chartered Bank Sep - - - 1.40 - - - 200.0 105.0UBS Sep - - - 1.50 1.4 - -21.5 - 85.0
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Oct 2.5 x - - 1.70 2.6 4.5 o -27.0 325.0 107.7Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 7.1 z - -0.7 1.69 1.4 14.2 -43.2 275.0 146.4Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - 2.5 - - - -CBI Nov * -1.5 z 0.4 0.0 1.69 0.6 - -8.2 - 109.5CEBR Oct 2.0 k 0.4 0.0 1.70 1.3 - - 300.0 139.0Economic Perspectives Nov * 2.0 x -1.0 0.8 1.60 1.5 5.0 -20.0 325.0 110.0Experian Business Strategies Oct 1.9 z 0.4 0.1 1.58 2.0 - -36.4 - 113.1EIU Nov * - 0.2 -0.2 1.74 -0.5 - -25.0 400.0 114.0IHS Global Insight Nov * -1.6 x -0.8 -1.1 1.75 1.4 - -25.0 375.0 114.8ITEM Club Oct - - 0.1 1.63 2.4 5.2 -17.1 - 115.0Liverpool Macro Research Nov * - - - - - - -17.8 - 87.2NIESR Nov * -1.8 hz 1.0 -0.3 2.76 hp - 4.6 -8.3 - 138.1Oxford Economics Nov * -2.8 z 0.5 -0.2 1.69 1.9 4.4 o -17.5 - 111.1EC Nov * - - 0.5 8.60 hq - - -0.9 a - 7.3 aOECD Jun - - - 8.30 hq - - -0.9 a - 7.1 ahIMF Sep - - - 7.80 hq - 5.8 -2.3 a - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Independent -0.1 0.3 -0.2 1.7 1.3 6.0 -17.7 350.0 112.8New (marked *) -1.3 0.3 -0.2 1.7 1.1 4.2 -14.5 377.1 112.1City -0.9 0.5 -0.3 1.8 1.1 3.7 -12.7 378.1 112.1
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 7.1 1.8 0.8 1.98 3.9 14.2 27.5 500.0 146.4Lowest -5.7 -2.0 -1.5 1.40 -1.2 3.0 -43.2 200.0 85.0Median -1.5 0.4 -0.1 1.70 1.3 5.0 -20.0 337.5 111.1
OBR Mar 0.1 hz 0.6 1.50 6.8 -34 - 101
PS
NB
(£b
n 20
12-1
3)
1.4 -
Table 6 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Ho
use
pric
e in
flati
on
(Q4)
Rea
l ho
useh
old
disp
osa
ble
inco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t gr
ow
th
Cla
iman
t
unem
plo
ymen
t
(Q4,
mill
ions
)
Man
ufac
turi
ng o
utpu
t
Wo
rld
trad
e in
go
ods
and
serv
ices
Cur
rent
acc
oun
t
(£bn
)
Siz
e o
f A
PF
pur
chas
es
(£bn
)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 9
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
GDP growth (per cent)
RPI (Q4, per cent)
#REF! #REF!
#DIV/0!
#REF!
-
0.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
CPI (Q4, per cent)
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 10
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account and PSNB (2011-12)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
Current account (£billion)
140
160
180
200
140
160
180
200
PSNB (2011-12, £billion)
100
120
100
120
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 11
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
3.1
1.68
-18.7
131.2 #REF! #REF!
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
3.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
GDP growth (per cent)
RPI (Q4, per cent)
#REF! #REF!
#REF!
PU771 ISBN: 978-1-84532-674-6
-
1.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
CPI (Q4, per cent)
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 12
Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2012-13)
102 5
105.0
107.5
110.0
112.5
115.0
102 5
105.0
107.5
110.0
112.5
115.0
PSNB (2011-12, £billion)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
Current account (£billion)
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 13
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
C G CD
B G TEM C
BSC EI
UG
I NC
apE
RBS
CBI
S5.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
CPI (Q4, per cent)
CEB
RSC EC
Cap
EM
SEI
U BC ING
S SG BCC
BEF
CBI
GI
ITEM
NIE
SRN O
EFC
GC
B EBS
GS
RBS
Cam
EH
SBC
UBS
DB
SCB
IMF
Liv EP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Independent Consensus
GDP growth (per cent) C
EBR
BEF SG ITEM OEF M
S CB HSB
C
GS N C
apE
S SC BCC
EIU
GI UBS
CG DB
ING
CBI
EP EBS BC RBS N
IESR
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Independent consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
EBS
SCB
ECLi
v MS
CEB
REP N
IESR BC
CBE
F HSB
CO
EF GS
ING
UBS C
G BC D SG IT
4.0
4.5
4.0
4.5
Independent consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 14
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2011-
12) made in last 3 months
GS UBS ITEM
BC
Cap
E
ING
SCB
CEB
R
EP BEF
DB
CB CBI
OEF
BCC
GI RBS
EIU
CG SC SG
EBS
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
Independent Consensus
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
M BCC UBS ING
HSB
C
EP CB
EIU BE
F Cap
E
NIE
SR
Liv RBS GI OEF
SG
N BC CBI
GS CG
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20Current account (£billion)
UBS
Liv GS HSB
C
N DB
SCB
OEF
ING
RBS BC
C
BC SG MS
ITEM
EIU
EBS
CBI
GI C
B
EP BEF
CG
NIE
SR CEB
R
80
100
120
140
160
180
80
100
120
140
160
180
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2011-12, £billion)
EBS
DB
ITE B
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
Independent Consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 15
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3
months
EF Cap
EG
SSG SC
BN
IESR
CEB
RIT
EM OEF
HSB
CSC G
I CBI
CB BC N
CG DB
ECM
SR
BSBC
CU
BS EBS Liv
EPEI
U2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
CPI (Q4, per cent)
SC
apE
ECSC SG C
EBR
EIU
CG IN
GG
IN
IESR RBS OEF MS
EBS CBI CB DB
GS
HSB
CBC C
amE
ITEM
N UBS BC
CIM
FSC
B EPLi
v BEF
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Independent Consensus
GDP growth (per cent) S
SG EBS
BEF
Cap
E
OEF IN
G ITEM
NIE
SR
CB CEB
R
GS
GI CBI
HSB
C
N RBS D
B UBS BC MS
BCC
SC CG EI
U
EP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Independent consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
SIN
GBE
C G S S
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Independent consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 16
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-
13) made in last 3 months
SCB
UBS IN
G EBS
EP
ITEM
GS BC
BEF
OEF
CBI BC
C
CEB
R
SC EIU GI CG C
B RBS DB
Cap
E SG
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
Independent Consensus
Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)
B CC
HSB
C
EIU
GI U
BS Cap
E
EP Liv
OEF
ITEM N SG
RBS NIE
SR
CBI
BC
GS
CG
20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
20
-10
0
10
20
30
40Current account (£billion)
UBS Liv
HSB
C MS SC
B BCC
GS
RBS CBI
DB
ING
EP OEF
BC CB
EBS
EIU
N GI
ITEM
SG
CG
NIE
SR
CEB
R BEF
80
100
120
140
160
180
80
100
120
140
160
180
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2012-13, £billion)
BEF D
B EBS ING C
B BC H E G
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
Independent Consensus
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 17
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.0 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.4
4.5 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.3
5.3 3.3 2.6 3.2 3.6
1.55 1.75 1.76 1.66 1.52
-16.0 -13.9 -11.0 -5.7 -4.0
Medium-term forecasts, November 2011
This edition of the comparison contains 14 new medium-term projections for the calendar years
2011 to 2015, and the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2014-15. The table below summarises the
independent average of new forecasts.
Independent average
GDP growth (per cent)
Inflation rate (per cent)
- CPI
- RPI
Claimant unemployment (mn)
Current account (£bn)
Independent average
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
PSNB (£bn) 129.1 117.0 98.2 81.1
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries (see notation).
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
City forecasters
0.9 1.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 Barclays Capital * 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8
0.8 0.0 1.5 - - Capital Economics * - - - -
0.9 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.8 Citigroup * 2.6 3.0 2.4 1.9
0.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 Commerzbank * 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.6
1.4 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 Daiwa Capital Markets - - - -
0.9 0.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 ING * - - - -
1.2 1.8 - - - Morgan Stanley 3.9 3.3 - -
0.9 1.5 2.0 - - Nomura * - - - -
1.0 1.0 1.8 2.0 - RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - -
0.9 -0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 Schroders IM * - - - -
1.1 1.9 - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - -
1.1 2.1 - - - UBS - - - -
Non-City forecasters
0.9 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.6 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 3.4 3.0 3.7 5.2
1.0 1.5 - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - -
1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 CEBR 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.7
1.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 Experian 4.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
0.9 0.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 IHS Global Insight * - - - -
1.4 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 ITEM Club 4.7 3.0 2.8 2.4
1.5 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - -
0.9 0.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 NIESR * 1.9 h 2.5 h 1.9 h 1.8 h
0.9 1.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 Oxford Economics * 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.4
1.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 Independent average 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.6
1.0 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 New forecasts (marked *) 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8
1.5 2.3 2.9 3.0 3.0 Highest 4.7 3.3 3.7 5.2
0.8 -0.4 0.9 1.7 1.8 Lowest 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City forecasters
-0.8 1.0 2.9 2.4 1.9 Barclays Capital * 1.6 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.3
-0.8 -0.4 0.6 - - Capital Economics * 0.4 0.1 0.4 - -
-0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.8 2.9 Citigroup * 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2 Commerzbank * 1.3 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.4
1.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 Daiwa Capital Markets 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
-0.7 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 ING * 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.9 - - - Morgan Stanley 1.1 0.9 - - -
-0.5 1.5 1.6 - - Nomura * 1.4 0.0 0.5 - -
-0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 1.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 -
-0.6 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 Schroders IM * 1.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1
- - - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -
-0.2 1.4 - - - UBS 1.4 0.7 - - -
Non-City forecasters
-0.5 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.4 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 1.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.0
-0.7 0.9 - - - Cambridge Econometrics * 1.4 0.5 - - -
-0.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 CEBR - - - - -
1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 Experian 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
-0.5 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 IHS Global Insight * 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2
0.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.3 ITEM Club 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3
- - - - - Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
-0.8 -0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 NIESR * 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3
-0.6 0.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 Oxford Economics * 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5
-0.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.3 Independent average 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
-0.6 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.4 New forecasts (marked *) 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
1.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.4 Highest 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6
-0.8 -0.5 0.0 1.5 1.8 Lowest 0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0
Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflatorGDP (percentage change) GDP deflator (percentage change)
Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contributionDomestic demand (percentage change) Contribution of net trade to GDP growth (per cent)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 19
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City forecasters
4.5 3.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 Barclays Capital * 5.3 3.9 3.3 3.7 3.6
4.6 2.8 1.5 - - Capital Economics * 5.3 3.2 2.1 - -
4.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.3 Citigroup * 5.3 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3
4.5 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 Commerzbank * 5.2 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.6
4.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Daiwa Capital Markets 5.2 4.0 3.6 3.5 2.6
4.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 ING * - - - - -
4.3 2.9 - - - Morgan Stanley 5.2 3.9 - - -
4.5 3.1 2.1 - - Nomura * 5.3 3.6 2.9 - -
4.6 3.5 2.2 2.0 - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 5.3 3.9 2.4 2.5 -
4.6 2.2 1.6 2.9 2.8 Schroders IM * 5.3 2.3 1.9 3.5 3.8
4.3 2.2 - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -
4.5 2.7 - - - UBS 5.5 4.0 - - -
Non-City forecasters
4.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.2 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 5.2 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.1
- - - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -
3.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 CEBR 5.7 4.0 3.8 4.4 3.5
4.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 Experian 5.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.8
4.5 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.2 IHS Global Insight * - - - - -
4.5 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.7 ITEM Club 5.2 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.0
4.2 k 3.4 k 2.2 k 2.0 k 2.0 k Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
4.4 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 NIESR * 5.3 3.7 1.8 2.3 2.9
4.5 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 Oxford Economics * 5.2 2.7 2.5 3.0 3.7
4.4 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 Independent average 5.3 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.4
4.5 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 New forecasts (marked *) 5.3 3.3 2.6 3.2 3.6
4.6 3.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 Highest 5.7 4.0 3.8 4.4 4.1
3.9 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 Lowest 5.2 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City forecasters
- - - - - Barclays Capital * 0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
82.3 82.2 84.1 - - Capital Economics * 0.50 0.50 0.50 - -
78.6 78.0 78.5 79.3 80.1 Citigroup * 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.06 2.04
79.6 81.5 81.6 81.7 83.3 Commerzbank * 0.50 0.50 0.65 1.63 2.63
80.0 82.0 85.0 87.0 89.3 Daiwa Capital Markets 0.50 1.04 2.00 3.00 4.50
- - - - - ING * 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.75 3.00
- - - - - Morgan Stanley 0.56 1.38 - - -
- - - - - Nomura * 0.50 0.50 0.50 - -
- - - - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 0.50 0.50 0.60 1.20 -
- - - - - Schroders IM * 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00
- - - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -
- - - - - UBS 0.50 0.75 - - -
Non-City forecasters
79.7 77.1 73.9 73.1 73.3 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 0.50 1.10 2.60 3.00 3.30
- - - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -
- - - - - CEBR 0.50 0.90 1.50 2.00 3.00
83.6 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 Experian 0.69 2.06 3.13 4.13 4.50
- - - - - IHS Global Insight * 0.50 0.50 0.81 1.79 3.00
80.0 78.7 77.7 76.4 75.0 ITEM Club 0.80 1.30 2.50 3.50 4.00
79.7 78.4 77.6 77.4 77.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
80.7 k 80.6 k 81.3 k 82.2 k 83.1 k NIESR * 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.90 1.40
80.1 80.7 81.5 85.1 86.5 Oxford Economics * 0.50 0.50 0.81 1.97 3.72
80.4 80.8 80.9 81.0 81.6 Independent average 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.1
80.0 79.7 79.5 79.3 80.0 New forecasts (marked *) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.7
83.6 88.2 88.2 88.2 89.3 Highest 0.8 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.5
78.6 77.1 73.9 73.1 73.3 Lowest 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4
Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflationCPI inflation (annual average, per cent) RPI inflation (annual average, per cent)
Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rateSterling index (annual average, Jan 2005=100) Official Bank rate (annual average, per cent)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City forecasters
Barclays Capital * 1.54 1.65 1.65 1.70 1.76
Capital Economics * 1.50 1.90 2.00 - -
Citigroup * 1.55 1.72 1.77 1.66 1.18
Commerzbank * 1.54 1.73 1.81 1.74 1.64
Daiwa Capital Markets 1.50 1.50 1.44 1.43 1.43
ING * - - - - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - -
Nomura * - - - - -
RBS Global Banking & Markets * 1.66 1.83 - - -
Schroders IM * - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -
UBS 1.44 1.50 - - -
Non-City forecasters
Beacon Economic Forecasting * 1.54 1.68 1.67 1.62 1.52
Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -
CEBR 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.40
Experian 1.57 1.57 1.39 1.25 1.15
IHS Global Insight * - - - - -
ITEM Club 1.60 1.59 1.60 1.53 1.44
Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
NIESR * 2.54 p 2.76 p 2.64 p 2.29 p 2.10 p
Oxford Economics * 1.56 1.70 1.64 1.57 1.49
Independent average 1.54 1.66 1.65 1.55 1.44New forecasts (marked *) 1.55 1.75 1.76 1.66 1.52
Highest 1.66 1.90 2.00 1.74 1.76
Lowest 1.44 1.50 1.39 1.25 1.15
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City forecasters
Barclays Capital * -0.40 y 2.30 y 6.60 y 7.10 y 4.50 y
Capital Economics * -0.80 y -4.80 y -5.20 y - -
Citigroup * -1.36 xy -0.99 xy -1.94 xy 0.23 xy 3.39 xy
Commerzbank * -0.20 y -0.70 y -1.70 y 0.90 y -0.20 y
Daiwa Capital Markets -2.70 z 0.10 z 3.50 z 4.70 z 5.70 z
ING * - x - x - x - x - x
Morgan Stanley - - - - -
Nomura * -1.15 x 2.15 x 2.42 x - -
RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -
Schroders IM * -2.70 x -5.10 x 0.30 x 1.00 x 2.00 x
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -
UBS 1.48 x 2.00 x - - -
Non-City forecasters
Beacon Economic Forecasting * -0.40 z 5.00 z 6.80 z 5.90 z 8.00 z
Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -
CEBR -1.70 k 2.30 k 3.70 k 4.70 k 5.50 k
Experian -0.50 z 1.47 z 3.04 z 3.30 z 3.26 z
IHS Global Insight * -2.50 x -3.40 x 1.70 x 4.80 x 6.80 x
ITEM Club -4.50 z 1.30 z 5.30 z 5.00 z 4.50 z
Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
NIESR * -1.00 z -1.80 z -0.90 z 0.90 z 2.10 z
Oxford Economics * -0.80 z -1.84 z -1.54 z 1.32 z 3.68 z
Independent average -1.28 -0.13 1.58 3.32 4.10
New forecasts (marked *) -1.13 -0.92 0.65 2.77 3.78
Highest 1.48 5.00 6.80 7.10 8.00
Lowest -4.50 -5.10 -5.20 0.23 -0.20
Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemploymentClaimant unemployment (annual average, millions)
Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflationHouse price inflation (annual average)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 21
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City forecasters
-10.4 2.9 -2.0 -2.2 3.1 Barclays Capital * -0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
-20.0 -20.0 -15.0 - - Capital Economics * -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 - -
-3.3 27.5 53.2 64.2 68.7 Citigroup * -0.2 1.7 3.3 3.8 3.9
-24.5 -28.7 -21.8 -22.2 -22.4 Commerzbank * -1.6 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3
-33.0 -24.0 -18.0 -12.0 -8.0 Daiwa Capital Markets -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5
- - - - - ING * - - - - -
- - - - - Morgan Stanley -1.9 -1.5 - - -
-11.2 -13.6 -18.5 - - Nomura * -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 - -
-17.0 -9.0 - - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * -1.1 -0.6 - - -
- - - - - Schroders IM * - - - - -
- - - - - Standard Chartered Bank -1.8 -1.4 - - -
-13.4 -4.0 - - - UBS -0.9 -0.2 - - -
Non-City forecasters
-22.3 -43.2 -49.3 -47.9 -52.8 Beacon Economic Forecasting * -1.5 -2.8 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7
- - - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -
- - - - - CEBR - - - - -
-29.8 -33.6 -30.5 -27.2 -22.5 Experian -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2
-16.2 -25.0 -23.2 -19.2 -16.8 IHS Global Insight * -1.1 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9
-27.0 -6.0 15.0 34.0 46.0 ITEM Club -1.8 -0.3 0.9 1.9 2.5
-18.0 -17.8 -17.5 -17.0 -16.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -
-18.5 -8.3 -4.8 0.3 0.4 NIESR * -1.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0
-14.5 -17.5 -11.4 -1.6 4.2 Oxford Economics * -1.0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.2
-18.6 -14.7 -11.1 -4.6 -1.5 Independent average -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.0-16.0 -13.9 -11.0 -5.7 -4.0 New forecasts (marked *) -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1
-3.3 27.5 53.2 64.2 68.7 Highest -0.2 1.7 3.3 3.8 3.9
-33.0 -43.2 -49.3 -47.9 -52.8 Lowest -2.2 -2.8 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
City forecasters
127.6 111.2 87.6 71.2 Barclays Capital * -8.4 -7.0 -5.2 -4.0
130.0 125.0 110.0 105.0 Capital Economics * 8.5 7.6 6.1 5.2
133.2 125.5 108.7 90.7 Citigroup * -8.7 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3
132.0 113.0 95.0 87.0 Commerzbank * 8.7 7.2 5.9 5.2
132.0 111.0 - - Daiwa Capital Markets - - - -
126.0 110.0 82.0 54.0 ING * -7.9 -6.7 -4.8 -3.0
124.9 98.0 - - Morgan Stanley 8.1 6.0 - -
125.0 114.2 - - Nomura * 8.2 7.2 - -
126.0 108.0 - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 8.2 6.7 - -
- - - - Schroders IM * - - - -
- - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - -
- - - - UBS - - - -
Non-City forecasters
132.9 146.4 138.0 121.1 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 8.8 9.2 8.1 6.6
- - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - -
123.0 104.0 85.0 69.0 CEBR 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.8
119.1 99.1 83.3 70.0 Experian 7.7 6.1 5.0 4.0
129.5 114.8 88.3 61.1 IHS Global Insight * 8.4 7.2 5.3 3.5
122.0 100.0 68.0 50.0 ITEM Club 7.9 6.0 4.0 2.8
120.2 87.2 75.5 72.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - -
141.6 138.1 114.6 91.2 NIESR * 9.4 8.8 7.0 5.3
125.2 111.1 82.4 57.3 Oxford Economics * 8.3 7.1 5.0 3.3
127.7 112.7 93.7 76.9 Independent average 5.0 4.3 2.9 2.3129.1 117.0 98.2 81.1 New forecasts (marked *) 4.0 3.6 2.3 1.9
141.6 146.4 138.0 121.1 Highest 9.4 9.2 8.1 6.6
119.1 87.2 68.0 50.0 Lowest -8.7 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3
Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current accountCurrent account (£ billion) Current account (per cent of money GDP)
Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNBPSNB (£ billion) PSNB (per cent of money GDP)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 22
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015City forecasters
Barclays Capital * - - - - -Capital Economics * - - - - -Citigroup * - - - - -Commerzbank * -2.3 -2.7 -2.6 -2.1 -1.3Daiwa Capital Markets -2.6 -2.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6ING * - - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - - -Nomura * -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 - -RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -Schroders IM * -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -UBS - - - - -
Non-City forecasters
Beacon Economic Forecasting * - - - - -Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -CEBR - - - - -Experian - - - - -IHS Global Insight * - - - - -ITEM Club - - - - -Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -NIESR * - - - - -Oxford Economics * -1.6 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2
Independent average -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2New forecasts (marked *) -1.7 -1.8 -1.5 -0.6 -0.1
Highest -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2Lowest -2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.1 -1.3
Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gapOutput gap (percentage of potential GDP)
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 23
-4.9 -4.3
1.5 2.3
-2.1 0.7
1.60 1.73
-35.3 -13
133.7 200 0.0
2.0
4.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP growth (per cent)
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
CPI inflation(annual average, per cent)
#DIV/0! 31.23833
-
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Claimant unemployment (annual average, millions)
1.01.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 24
-4.9 -4.3
1.5 2.3
-2.1 0.7
1.60 1.73
-35.3 -13
133.7 200
-20
-10
0
-20
-10
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Current account (£billion)
100
120
140
100
120
140
PSNB (£billion)
40
60
80
40
60
80
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 25
AA ABN AMRO
BoA Bank of America - Merrill Lynch
BC Barclays Capital
BCC British Chambers of Commerce
BEF Beacon Economic Forecasting
BP BNP Paribas
CamE Cambridge Econometrics
CapE Capital Economics
CG Citigroup
CBI Confederation of British Industry
CEBR Centre for Economics and Business Research
CB Commerzbank
DCM Daiwa Capital Markets
DB Deutsche Bank
EBS Experian Business Strategies (previously BSL)
EC* European Commission
EIU Economist Intelligence Unit
EP Economic Perspectives
GI IHS Global Insight
GS Goldman Sachs
HSBC HSBC Global Research
ING ING Financial Markets
IMF* International Monetary Fund
ITEM ITEM Club
JPM JP Morgan Chase
Liv Liverpool Macro Research
LS Lombard Street Research
MS Morgan Stanley
NIESR National Institute of Economic and Social Research
OECD* Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OEF Oxford Economic Forecasting
RBS Royal Bank Of Scotland Global Banking & Markets
SC Scotia Capital
S Schroders Investment Management
SG Societe Generale
SCB Standard Chartered Bank
UBS UBS
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables
* Forecasts from the EC, IMF and OECD are updated when a full forecast is produced.
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 26
Annex 2: Data definitions
Code BK67
House price inflation Q4 on Q4 annual percentage change in house prices
Public sector accounts, Table PSAT 1, Code ANNX
The gap between actual output and trend (or potential) output, expressed as a percentage of trend (or potential)
National accounts, Table B1, Code CKYY
Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division
(Previously Bank of England repo rate (Q4)), Code BEDR
Brent crude, annual average
Code VQJW, calendar year (previously financial year)
National accounts, Table J2, Code NRJR
Workforce jobs, Labour market statistics, Table 4, Code DYDC
Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division
Private consumption
GDP
output.
Public sector finances release, Table PSF 1 /
Balance of payments release, Table A, Code HBOP
Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CZBH
Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CDKQ
Labour market statistics, Table 15
Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code D7G7
Current account (£bn)
Public Sector Net Borrowing
RPIX (Q4)
Whole Economy Average Weekly Earnings (Total Pay)
Sterling index (Q4, Jan 2005=100)
Size of APF purchases (£bn) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm
Labour market statistics, Table 10, Code BCJD
National accounts, Table C2, Code ABMI
Households + NPISH, National accounts, Table C2,
National accounts, Table C2, Code NMRY
National accounts, Table C2, Code NPQT
National Accounts, Table C2, Code CAFU
National Accounts, Table C2, Code YBIM
Code ABJR+HAYO
National Accounts, Table C2, Code IKBK
National Accounts, Table C2, Code IKBL
Employment growth
Claimant unemployment (Q4, mn)
Manufacturing Output
World trade in goods and service
Official Bank Rate (Q4)
Oil price ($ per barrel)
M4 growth
RHDI
RPI (Q4)
CPI (Q4)
Exports (goods and services)
Imports (goods and services)
General government consumption
Gross fixed investment
Change in inventories
Domestic demand
Output Gap
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 27
Annex 3: Notation used in tables
a: as a percentage of GDP
b: non-durable consumption
c: consumer expenditure less expenditure on durables and housing
d: private sector investment, stockbuilding and durable consumption
e: investment and stockbuilding combined
f: contribution to GDP growth - percentage points
g: end period
h: calendar year
i: financial year
j: compensation of employees/head
k: different definitions; refer to forecasters for details
l: 3 month interbank rate
m: general government current and capital expenditure plus stockbuilding
n: average of spot price of Brent crude and Dubai light crudeo: world trade in manufacturing
p: ILO unemployment - millions
q: ILO unemployment rate
r: PSNCR (Formerly PSBR)
s: PSNB including the effect of financial interventions
t: world GDP
u: OPEC average
v: final domestic demand
w: percentage change
x: based on Halifax house price index
y: based on Nationwide house price index
z: based on CLG house price series
aa: claimant unemployment rate
ab: treaty deficit
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 28
Organisation Contact E-mail address Telephone number
ABN AMRO Joost Beaumont [email protected] 020 628 3437
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Nick Bate [email protected] 020 7995 4262
Barclays Capital Blerina Uruci [email protected] 020 7773 4373
Beacon Economic Forecasting David Smith [email protected] 01923 897 885
British Chambers of Commerce David Kern [email protected] 020 8904 6293
Cambridge Econometrics Ragini Madan [email protected] 01223 533100
Capital Economics Jonathan Loynes [email protected] 020 7823 5000
Citigroup Michael Saunders [email protected] 020 7986 9297
CBI David Muir [email protected] 020 7395 8102
CEBR Charles Davis [email protected] 020 7324 2863
Commerzbank Peter Dixon [email protected] 020 7653 7271
Daiwa Capital Markets Hetal Mehta [email protected] 020 7597 8338
Deutsche Bank George Buckley [email protected] 020 7545 1372
Experian Business Strategies Meera Sadier [email protected] 020 7746 8235
EC Thomas Springbett [email protected] 0032 2296 7226
EIU Neil Prothero [email protected] 020 7576 8308
Economic Perspectives Peter Warburton [email protected] 01582 696 999
Goldman Sachs Adrian Paul [email protected] -
HSBC Alexander Pefanis [email protected] -
IHS Global Insight Howard Archer [email protected] 020 3159 3563
ING Financial Markets James Knightley [email protected] 020 7767 6614
ITEM club Peter Spencer [email protected] 01904 323771
J P Morgan Allan Monks [email protected] 020 7777 1080
Liverpool Macro Research David Meenagh [email protected] 029 2087 5198
Lombard Street Research Jamie Dannhauser [email protected] 0207 382 5961
Morgan Stanley Melanie Baker [email protected] 020 7425 8607
NIESR Simon Kirby [email protected] 020 7222 7665
Nomura Philip Rush [email protected] 2071029595
Oxford Economics Elizaveta Ross [email protected] 01865 268 224
Royal Bank of Scotland Ross Walker [email protected] 020 7085 3670
Scotia Capital Alan Clarke [email protected] 0207 826 5986
Schroders Investment Management Azad Zangana [email protected] 020 7658 2671
Societe Generale Brian Hilliard [email protected] 020 7676 7165
Standard Chartered Bank Sarah Hewin [email protected] 020 7885 6251
UBS Nishit Mittal [email protected] -
Annex 4: Organisation contact details
Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 29
HM Treasury contacts
This document can be found in full on our website at: hm-treasury.gov.uk
If you require this information in another language, format or have general enquiries about HM Treasury and its work, contact:
Correspondence and Enquiry Unit HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London
SW1A 2HQ
Tel: 020 7270 5000 Fax: 020 7270 4861
E-mail: [email protected]