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ATCM Annual Conference 2009
Retail – where it is and where it’s going
Jane MilneDirector of Business Environment
British Retail Consortium
Retail sales and consumer confidence
House price and mortgage approvals
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08
House price (% change yoy)
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Mortgage approval (% change yoy)
Halifax house prices index Mortgage approvals
Selected Profit Statements
Company Name Like -for-like sales Total Sales Food: Tesco 2.0% 5.9% Sainsbury's 4.5% 5.3% Marks and Spencer -7.1% -3.4% Fashion : Next -7.0% -3.0% JD Sports Fashion 2.8% Debenhams -3.5% 0.6% Mothercare 1.1% 1.8%
Selected Profit StatementsCompany Name Like -for-like sales Total Sales Electrical/Leisure : Argos -7.5% -3.6% DSG International -12.0% -8.0% Jessops 3.1% Kesa (Comet) -5.5% -2.2 HMV 3.0% 5.8% Game Group 11.9% 25.1% Home: Carpetright -13.0% -11.0% Homebase -10.2% -3.8% Other Clinton Cards -4.1% Halfords -7.8% -5.8%
Falling value of Sterling
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
Jan-05Apr-05Jul-05Oct-05Jan-06Apr-06Jul-06Oct-06Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09
Euro into Sterling US $ into Sterling
BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index
Unemployment
Contraction in Lending
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar-04Jun-04Sep-04Dec-04Mar-05Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08
% growth
Centre for Cities
Closures on the High StreetFrom The Sunday Times
March 1, 2009
Stores tell landlords to get real
Retailers are forcing down rents as BritainÕs deepening recession leaves 90,000 shops empty
Closing down: in some town centres more than a quarter of the shops could be vacant by the end of this year
Cost drivers in retail
Which future?