Meeting carbon budgets:5th Progress Report to Parliament, June 2013

CO2 emissions rose 3.5% in 2012 in the context of colder winter weather and a gas-to-coal switch in power generation. Small underlying emissions reduction

#cccprog13

Key messages

• Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors.

• Underlying emissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this Parliament.

• Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation.

• Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation, insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but challenges sustaining progress in future.

#cccprog13

4th carbon budget

review

Wales Climate Change Commission, Swansea19th September 2013

Context for the fourth carbon budget review (2023-27)

Govt proposal for setting the fourth carbon budget, Policy Statement, May 2011

The review: If, at that time [2014], our domestic commitments place us on a different emissions trajectory than the EU ETS trajectory agreed by the EU, we will, as appropriate, revise up our budget to align it with the actual EU trajectory.

5

CCC advice, The Fourth Carbon Budget, December 2010

• 2050 80% target remains appropriate• Should aim for a 60% reduction by 2030• Legislate a fourth budget of 1950 MtCO2e• Aim to deliver it through domestic (UK) action• Be prepared to adjust the budget in the context of a

global/EU deal

Process for the fourth budget review

6

The Climate Change Act (21 – alteration of carbon budgets)

[A carbon budget] may be amended...only if it appears to the Secretary of State that, since the budget was originally set (or previously altered), there have been significant changes affecting the basis on which the previous decision was made.

The Climate Change Act (8 & 10) - criteria• Science• International/European• Technology / economics• Meeting the 2050 target• Competitiveness• Fiscal• Fuel poverty• Energy supply• Devolved circumstances

The Climate Change Act (22)

Before laying an order under section 21, the Secretary of State must obtain, and take into account, the advice of the Committee on Climate Change

Given latest evidence, would a change in the budget better put the UK on the cost-effective path to the 2050 target while managing the budget’s impacts,

international interactions and climate risks?

CCC workplan for the fourth budget review

Science

International

Scenarios

• Competitiveness and carbon footprint report (April 2013)

• Review latest EU and UNFCCC positions/expectations; compare to current 4th budget

• Ongoing recession• Impact of shale gas• Latest emissions projections• Latest evidence on abatement potential• Robustness to different assumptions

• Review of latest scientific understanding, notably IPCC WG1 report in September 2013

• Modelling of emissions pathways and climate response under various assumptions

Call for evidence (http://www.theccc.org.uk/call-for-evidence/)Stakeholder workshops: Business, Scenarios, Science, International

Review will consider whether budget should be loosened or tightened

Also: Should the budget be tightened to reflect headroom due to significantly lower emissions projections? Does headroom imply uncertainty?

And: Would a change in the budget by definition increase uncertainty?

UEP = DECC’s Updated Energy and Emissions Projections

Govt: Should the budget be loosened to align to EU default trajectory?

Electricity

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Non-CO2

Lots of efficiency (e.g. 3.5m SWIs)25% heat from heat pumpslimited district heating

Decarbonise to 50 gCO2/kWh through:Efficiency, Nuclear, Renewables, CCS

New cars @ 80 g/kmElectric vehicle penetration 60%Minimal biofuels

Some efficiencySome use of scarce bioenergySome CCS

Efficiency on farmsDivert waste from landfillPossible behaviour change

A 2030 scenario that would meet the budget

Aim for this level of

abatement and adjust balance

between sectors and

technologies as learn more

bold = primarily for preparing for 2050

Questions for discussion

Does the scientific case for action remain and are we still moving towards a carbon-constrained world?

Are the scenarios proposed by the CCC still feasible and cost-effective on the path to the 2050 target?

How would a change in the UK budget affect:

• Attractiveness to low-carbon investors and business confidence?

• Competitiveness, affordability and the economy?

• Deliverability of Welsh programmes and targets?