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| | Simulation of Negotiations: Ukraine-Russia-European Union Relations Dr. Vitalijs Butenko Dr. Sibylle Zürcher 07.03.2017 NECOM 1 Ukraine – Russia: Relationships 2014 – present
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Simulation of Negotiations: Ukraine-Russia-European Union Relations
Dr. Vitalijs Butenko
Dr. Sibylle Zürcher
07.03.2017NECOM 1
Ukraine – Russia:
Relationships 2014 – present
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1. Introduction
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UkraineSituation as of 2013:
- Form of government: Semi-presidential republic
- Administrative units:
- 24 regions (“oblast”)
- 2 cities of republican subordination (Kiev
and Sevastopol)
- Autonomous Republic of Crimea
- Population*:
- 48.4 m (2001 census)
- 42.5 m (2016 estimate)
- GDP (current prices)*:
- $179.5 b (2013)
- $87.2 b (2016 estimate)
- Security:
- 250’000 army personnel0
- Following Budapest agreement in 1994 the
nuclear arsenal is removed to Russia in
exchange for assurances against threats or
use of force against the territorial integrity
or political independence of Ukraine and
admission to Non Proliferation Treaty
(NPT).
* Note from IMF: 2013 data excludes Crimea and Sevastopol for comparison purposes with 2014 data.
|| 4
War
Crisis
Unstable
peace
Stable
peace
Open
conflict
Co
nflic
t
inte
nsity
time
Nov. 2013: Yanukovitch
refuses to sign UKR-EU
association agreement
with EU.
Nov. 2013:
Euromaidan
begins
21 Feb. 2014:
Crisis settlement dealMar. 2014:
Incorporation of
Crimea by Russia22-23 Feb. 2014:
Yanukovitch leaves
Ukraine; Maidan
leaders take over
the government
Mar. 2014:
US and EU
sanctions
12. Sept. 2014:
Ratification of the
UKR-EU association
agreement
2. Background on the
crisis in Ukraine
Nov 2013 – Sept 2014 Odessa
Mar. 2014:
Civil war erupts in
Luhansk and
Donetsk regions
MH17
Convoy
5. Sept. 2014:
Minsk protocol,
cease fire
Another gas-
price crisis
UKR-RUS, EU
as mediator
26. Sept. 2014
UKR: repays $3.1 bn
debt in steps
RUS: Resumes
supply at price $385
per 1,000 m2
Dec 2014-Feb
2015: Debaltseve
“Pocket”
07.03.2017NECOM
||
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides an interactive
timeline of events of the crisis in Ukraine:
http://csis.org/ukraine/index.htm
«Wendet euch von Russland ab», Interview mit David Usupaschwili, Tages
Anzeiger, 17.10.14.
07.03.2017NECOM 5
||
US and EU decided to implement
sanctions against
individuals related to the crisis in
Ukraine
banks, energy and defense
companies
07.03.2017NECOM 6
3. Sanctions
Russia responded by embargo on
apples, milk, meat, fish and other
products from EU, US and Norway
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 7
Example of EU sanctions.
Subject to semiannual review.
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4. Negotiations on Ukrainian crisis
||
Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU
Euromaidan starts
Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)
07.03.2017NECOM 10
4.1. Development of the crisis and related negotiations
Event: Date:
November 2013
November 21, 2013
February 21, 2014
Timeline
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4.1.1. Kiev Agreement: Agreement on Settlement of the Crisis in
Ukraine (21 February 2014, Kiev)
Signatories:
• Viktor Yanukovych, president of Ukraine
For the Opposition:
• Vitaliy Klichko, UDAR
• Oleh Tyahnibok, Svoboda
• Arsenij Yatseniuk, Batkivshchyna
Witnessed by:
For the EU:
• Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish foreign minister
• Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister
• Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister
For the Russian Federation:
• Vladimir Lukin, Russian special envoy
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 12
→ document 1
Kiev agreement
||
Agreement on the Settlement of Crisis in Ukraine
Concerned with the tragic loss of life in Ukraine, seeking an immediate end of
bloodshed and determined to pave the way for a political resolution of the crisis,
We, the signing parties, have agreed upon the following:
1. Within 48 hours of the signing of this agreement, a special law will be
adopted, signed and promulgated, which will restore the Constitution of 2004
including amendments passed until now. Signatories declare their intention to
create a coalition and form a national unity government within 10 days
thereafter.
2. Constitutional reform, balancing the powers of the President, the government
and parliament, will start immediately and be completed in September 2014.
3. Presidential elections will be held as soon as the new Constitution is adopted
but no later than December 2014. New electoral laws will be passed and a new
Central Election Commission will be formed on the basis of proportionality and in
accordance with the OSCE & Venice commission rules.
4. Investigation into recent acts of violence will be conducted under joint
monitoring from the authorities, the opposition and the Council of Europe.
5. The authorities will not impose a state of emergency. The authorities and the
opposition will refrain from the use of violence. The Parliament will adopt the 3rd
amnesty, covering the same range of illegal actions as the 17th February 2014
law.
Both parties will undertake serious efforts for the normalisation of life in the cities
and villages by withdrawing from administrative and public buildings and
unblocking streets, city parks and squares.
Illegal weapons should be handed over to the Ministry of Interior bodies within
24 hours of the special law, referred to in point 1 hereof, coming into force. After
the aforementioned period, all cases of illegal carrying and storage of weapons
will fall under the law of Ukraine. The forces of authorities and of the opposition
will step back from confrontational posture. The Government will use law
enforcement forces exclusively for the physical protection of public buildings.
6. The Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, Poland and the Special
Representative of the President of the Russian Federation call for an immediate
end to all violence and confrontation.
Kyiv, 21 February 2014 07.03.2017NECOM 13
Signatories
Viktor Yanukovych, president of Ukraine
For the Opposition
Vitaliy Klichko, UDAR
Oleh Tyahnibok, Svoboda
Arsenij Yatseniuk, Batkivshchyna
Witnessed by
For the EU
Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish foreign minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister
Laurent Fabius, French foreign minister
For the Russian Federation
Vladimir Lukin, Russian special envoy
||
Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU
Euromaidan starts
Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)
Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions
First sanctions against Russia
Annexation of Crimea
Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2)
07.03.2017NECOM 14
TimelineEvent: Date:
November 2013
November 21, 2013
February 21, 2014
March 1, 2014
March 17, 2014
March 21, 2014
April 17, 2014
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4.1.2. Geneva Statement on Ukraine (17 April 2014, Geneva)
Foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, EU and US
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→ document 2
Geneva statement
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Geneva Statement on Ukraine
Representatives of the European Union, the United States, Ukraine and the Russia
Federation issued today following statement:
The Geneva meeting on the situation in Ukraine agreed on initial concrete steps to de-
escalate tensions and restore security for all citizens.
All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The
participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism
and religious intolerance, including anti-semitism.
All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be
returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public
places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.
Amnesty will be granted to protestors and to those who have left buildings and other
public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of
capital crimes.
It was agreed that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission should play a leading role in
assisting Ukrainian authorities and local communities in the immediate implementation
of these de-escalation measures wherever they are needed most, beginning in the
coming days. The U.S., E.U. and Russia commit to support this mission, including by
providing monitors.
The announced constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable.
It will include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach
to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for the consideration
of public comments and proposed amendments.
The participants underlined the importance of economic and financial stability in
Ukraine and would be ready to discuss additional support as the above steps are
implemented.
07.03.2017NECOM 17
||
Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU
Euromaidan starts
Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)
Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions
First sanctions against Russia
Annexation of Crimea
Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2)
Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine
Normandy Four first meeting
07.03.2017NECOM 18
Timeline
Event: Date:
November 2013
November 21, 2013
February 21, 2014
March 1, 2014
March 17, 2014
March 21, 2014
April 17, 2014
May, 2014
June 6, 2014
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Celebration of D-Day 70th commemoration day (6 June 2014)
First Normandy Four meeting (F, D, UKR, RUS)
||
Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU
Euromaidan starts
Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)
Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions
First sanctions against Russia
Annexation of Crimea
Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2)
Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine
Normandy four first meeting (this was in France, D-day celebration)
Kramatorsk and Slovyansk under control of Ukraine forces
Malaysian air flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down
Contact group on Ukraine crisis (→ document 3, “Minsk I”)
07.03.2017NECOM 20
Timeline
Event: Date:
November 2013
November 21, 2013
February 21, 2014
March 1, 2014
March 17, 2014
March 21, 2014
April 17, 2014
May, 2014
June 6, 2014
July, 2014
July 17, 2014
September 5, 2014
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 21
2.3 Minsk I Protocol: Trilateral Contact Group negotiation
(5 September 2014, Minsk)
Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group:
• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
• DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko
• LPR leader Igor Plotnitsky
|| 07.03.2017 22
→ document 3
Protocol, 5 September 2014 (“Minsk I”)
NECOM
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PROTOCOL
on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group
with respect to the joint steps aimed at
the implementation of the Peace Plan
of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko,
and the initiatives of the President of Russia, V. Putin
Upon consideration and discussion of the proposals put forward by the participants of
the consultations in Minsk on September 1, 2014, the Trilateral Contact Group,
consisting of the representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe [OSCE], reached an
understanding with respect to the need to implement the following steps:
1. Ensure the immediate bilateral cessation of the use of weapons.
2. Ensure monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the regime of non-use of weapons.
3. Implement decentralization of power, including by means of enacting the Law of
Ukraine “With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas
of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).
4. Ensure permanent monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian state border and verification
by the OSCE, together with the creation of a security area in the border regions of
Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
5. Immediately release all hostages and unlawfully detained persons.
6. Enact a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with
the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of
Ukraine.
7. Conduct an inclusive national dialogue.
8. Adopt measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in Donbass.
9. Ensure the holding of early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine
“With respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the
Donetsk and the Lugansk regions” (Law on Special Status).
10. Remove unlawful military formations, military hardware, as well as militants and
mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.
11. Adopt a program for the economic revival of Donbass and the recovery of economic
activity in the region.
12. Provide personal security guarantees for the participants of the consultations. 07.03.2017 23
Participants of the Trilateral Contact Group:
Ambassador Heidi Talyavini (signed)
Second President of Ukraine, L.D. Kuchma (signed)
Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine,
M.Y. Zurabov (signed)
A.V. Zakharchenko (signed)
I.V. Plotnitskiy (signed)
NECOM
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Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU
Euromaidan starts
Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)
Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions
First sanctions against Russia
Annexation of Crimea
Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2)
Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine
Normandy four first meeting (this was in France, D-day celebration)
Kramatorsk and Slovyansk under control of Ukraine forces
Malaysian air flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down
Contact group on Ukraine crisis (→ document 3, “Minsk I”)
Escalation of fights
Merkel and Hollande go to Kiev
Merkel and Hollande go to Moscow
US threat to supply lethal weapons
Normandy four meeting in Minsk (→ document 4, “Minsk II”)
07.03.2017NECOM 24
TimelineEvent: Date:
November 2013
November 21, 2013
February 21, 2014
March 1, 2014
March 17, 2014
March 21, 2014
April 17, 2014
May, 2014
June 6, 2014
July, 2014
July 17, 2014
September 5, 2014
January, 2015
February 5, 2015
February 5, 2015
February 6, 2015
February 11, 2015
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4.1.4 Minsk II Protocol: Normandy Four meeting in Minsk
(12 February 2015, Minsk)
NECOM
Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Petro Poroshenko
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Kiev
Agreement based on
demarcation line from Minsk I
Ceasefire and withdrawal of
heavy weapons
Control of border with Russia
Withdrawal of foreign troops
from Luhansk and Donetsk
Free to chooses its foreign
policy
07.03.2017NECOM 26
Our assessment of the positions of the involved parties
Luhansk and Donetsk
Demarcation line from
Minsk I is no longer
appropriate
End the Ukrainian
economic blockade of
Luhansk and Donetsk
Moscow
Keep territorial gains
euphemistically expressed in
the demand of federalization
and autonomy for Luhansk
and Donetsk
Negotiate and design the
agreement in order to bring
Debaltseve under rebels’
control
Will not return Crimea
Ukraine remains neutral and
does not join NATO
Kiev re-starts social economic
links with DPR and LPR (i.e.
Kiev invests in the destroyed
regions)
West
Diplomatic agreement for
peace
Sanctions if no peace deal
(supply of weapons by US)
Russia must remove their
troops from east Ukraine
Restoration of the
international law and order
Minsk
Hosting the event:
‘Serving coffee’
An opportunity to be
better recognized by EU
leaders
||
Risto Penttila, FT 10.10.14:
Increase popular support of Putin
Divide further ideologically, politically
and culturally west and Russia
Hurt Putin’s advisors vs. workers
and warmers in west
Possible solution:
Peace treaty UKR-RUS on
borders
UKR commits to uphold Russian
speakers rights
RUS stops supporting rebels in
east Ukraine
07.03.2017NECOM 27
Different views on the crisis
Lilia Shevtsova, FT 30.09.14:
Support “permanent confrontation”
perception by RUS
Short term: Internal power
consolidation
Long term: Declining living standards
Reality assessment:
West swallowed annexation of
Crimea
The partition of UKR is silently
being ratified by the rest of the
world
West neither protects UKR, nor
guarantees international law
Economy slowdown under
sanctions will boomerang back to
Putin’s reign
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 28
Development of the negotiation on 11 February 2015
Date Time Event
Feb 11 17:18 Negotiations begin with ‘Normandy Four’ (Putin, Merkel, Hollande and
Poroshenko)
The Contact Group will have a separate closed door meeting
Feb 11 18:38 They Normandy Four are joined by their foreign ministers
Feb 11 21:44 Dinner Break
Feb 12 2:32 Putin and Merkel take a short break
Feb 12 6:41 Leaders of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics arrive to join
contact group
Feb 12 7:02 Delegations of the Normandy Four leave room to take a break (originally
thought to be the end of talks)
Feb 12 7:26 Poroshenko calls Russian proposal unacceptable
Feb 12 7:55 Merkel and Hollande speak to Putin without Poroshenko
Feb 12 9:00 Negotiations end – agreement reached
Time stamps are approximate, according to news tickers from different sources (e.g. NZZ, RT).
|| 07.03.2017 29
→ document 4
Protocol 12. February 2015 (“Minsk II”)
NECOM
||
List of measures to fulfill the Minsk II Agreement, February 12, 2015
1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation
starting at 0000 (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015.
2. The withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances in order to create at least a 50 kilometer security zone for 100mm or
larger caliber artillery systems, a 70 kilometer security zone for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems and a 140 kilometer security zone for the
Tornado-S, Uragan, and Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems and Tochka (Tochka-U) tactical missile systems:
- for the Ukrainian troops: [withdrawal] from the actual contact line;
- for the military units of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine: [withdrawal] from the contact line in accordance with the
Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014
Withdrawal of aforementioned heavy weapons shall begin no later than the second day of the ceasefire and end within 14 days.
The OSCE will contribute to this process with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
3. Starting the first day of such withdrawal, ensuring the effective monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of
heavy weapons with the use of all necessary technical means, including satellites, UAVs, radar systems, etc.
4. On the first day after the withdrawal, to begin a dialogue on the procedures for holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and the
Law of Ukraine "On a temporary order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions," as well as on the future regime
of these areas, according to this Act.
Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the
specification of a territory subject to the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On temporary order of local government in some
regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions" based on the line set in a Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014
5. To provide pardons and amnesties by the enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution and punishment of persons with regard to the events that
took place in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
6. To ensure the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of "all for all". This process must be
completed no later than the fifth day after the withdrawal.
7. To provide secure access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy on the basis of an international mechanism.
8. Determination of the procedure for the full restoration of the socio-economic relations, including transactions of social payments, such as
pensions and other payments (takings and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within Ukraine’s legal framework).
To this end, Ukraine shall regain control over the segment of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and an international mechanism to
facilitate such transfers will probably be created.
9. Restoration of full control over the state border of Ukraine by Ukraine’s government throughout the whole conflict area, which should begin on
the first day after the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in individual areas of the Donetsk
and Luhansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine, and a constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on condition of implementation of
paragraph 11 - with consultations and in agreement with the representatives of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the
framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
…
07.03.2017 30NECOM
||
10. The withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the
OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Conducting constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new constitution coming into force by the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a
key element (taking into account the characteristics of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of these
areas), as well as the adoption of the permanent legislation on the special status of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in
accordance with the measures specified in Note [1], until the end of 2015. (See Notes)
12. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local government in individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” the questions
regarding local elections shall be discussed and agreed with the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the
Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE with the monitoring by the OSCE ODIHR.
13. To intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant
aspects of the Minsk Agreement. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
Notes:
Such measures, in accordance with the Law "On the special order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,"
include the following:
- Exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of persons associated with the events that took place in individual areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- The right to self-determination with regard to language;
- Participation of local governments in the appointment of heads of prosecutors’ offices and courts in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions;
- The possibility for the central executive authorities to conclude agreements with the relevant local authorities on economic, social and cultural
development of individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- The state shall support socio-economic development of individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
- Assistance from the central government to cross-border cooperation between the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and
regions of the Russian Federation;
- The creation of people's militia units [police] upon the decision of local councils in order to maintain public order in individual areas of the Donetsk
and Luhansk regions;
- The powers of local council deputies and other officials elected in snap elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine according to this
law, cannot be terminated.
The document is signed by the members of a Trilateral Contact Group:
[OSCE] Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini, Second President of Ukraine L.D. Kuchma
The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ukraine M.Yu. Zurabov
A. V. Zakharchenko, I. V. Plotnitsky
http://www.unian.info/politics/1043394-minsk-agreement-full-text-in-english.html
07.03.2017 31NECOM
||
Yanukovich rejects agreement with EU
Euromaidan starts
Agreement with opposition and departure of Yanukovich (→ document 1)
Uprising in Luhansk and Donetsk regions
First sanctions against Russia
Annexation of Crimea
Geneva statement on Ukraine (→ document 2)
Begin of counter terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine
Normandy four first meeting (this was in France, D-day celebration)
Kramatorsk and Slovyansk under control of Ukraine forces
Malaysian air flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur shot down
Contact group on Ukraine crisis (→ document 3, “Minsk I”)
Escalation of fights
Merkel and Hollande go to Kiev
Merkel and Hollande go to Moscow
US threat to supply lethal weapons
Normandy four meeting in Minsk (→ document 4, “Minsk II”)
IMF agreed on a 17.5 billion $ bailout for Ukraine
Debaltseve is taken by the pro-Russian rebels 07.03.2017NECOM 32
TimelineEvent: Date:
November 2013
November 21, 2013
February 21, 2014
March 1, 2014
March 17, 2014
March 21, 2014
April 17, 2014
May, 2014
June 6, 2014
July, 2014
July 17, 2014
September 5, 2014
January, 2015
February 5, 2015
February 5, 2015
February 6, 2015
February 11, 2015
February 12, 2015
February 18, 2015
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 33
Debaltseve Battle
‘Kettle’ formation Approximate situation at the end of
the battle
Source: Wikipedia
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 34
Issue Document 1 “Kiev” Document 2
“Geneva”
Document 3
“Minsk I”
Document 4:
“Minsk II”
Type• Declaration of intention • Political Statement • Measures to implement
Agreement
• Measures to implement Agreement
Parties• President and
Opposition
• EU, RUS, UKR, US
(Ministers)
• RUS, UKR, Rebels, OSCE
Contact Group
• RUS, UKR, Rebels, OSCE
Contact Group
Constitution and reforms in
UKR
• Constitution of 2014
• Reform to balance
powers
• Within 48h gov of
national unity
• Call for transparent
constitutional
reform process
• Broad national
dialogue
• Decentralization of power
• Inclusive national dialogue
• Enact a law on special
status of Donetsk and
Luhansk regions
• Constitutional reform until end of 2015
• Decentralization
• Special conditions for DPR and LPR
Elections• Presidential elections
until December 2014
- • Early local elections on the
basis of the law on special
status of D. & L.
• Local elections in D. & L. by the end of 2015
on the basis of the Law of Ukraine
Finance and economics- • Importance of fin.
and econ. stability
• Economic revival of
Donbass region
• Full restoration of social-economic relations
with Donbass
Observers- • OSCE Special
Monitoring Mission
• Monitoring and verification
by OSCE
• Effective monitoring and verification by OSCE
• Use of technical means, satellites, radars etc.
Ukraine-Russia border- - • OSCE permanent
monitoring and safety
regions
• Restoration of full control over the state border
by Ukraine on the first day after local elections
Amnesty
• Amnesty • Amnesty granted
to protestors
• Enact a law prohibiting
prosecution and
punishment of persons
related to the events
• Provide pardons and amnesties by the
enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution
and punishment of persons related to the
events
Hostages- - • Immediate release of all
hostages
• Release and exchange ‘all-to-all’
Use of weapons• Illegal weapons should
be handed over to the
Ministry of Interior
• Disarmament of
illegal groups
• Immediate cessation of fire • Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire
• Withdrawal of all heavy weapons to create at
least 50 km security zone
Unlawful military formations
and mercenaries- -
• Remove unlawful military
formations, hardware and
mercenaries from UKR
• Withdrawal of all foreign armed forces,
equipment and mercenaries from Ukr.
Crimea - - - -
4.2. Conclusions 4.2.1. Summary of the four agreements
||
Documents 1, 2, 3, were never fully implemented, and as result they failed to
stabilize the situation
There is a hope that Document 4 (Minsk II) will contribute to a (temporarily)
de-escalation of the conflict
Formulations of certain issues have evolved as the conflict deteriorated, for
example:
From general constitutional reform (e.g. better balance of powers) [Document 1] to
decentralization of Ukraine with special conditions for DPR and LPR [Document 4]
From no observers to effective monitoring and verification by OSCE (including use
of technical means)
From amnesty to provide pardons and amnesties by the enactment of a law
prohibiting prosecution and punishment of persons related to the events
Document 3 and 4 include concrete obligations: Who does what when and
how?
Missing:
Verification (Minsk I Art. 2, Minsk II Art. 2 last paragraph, and Art. 10) not sufficient
Enforcement
Sanctions, if violated
Last, but not least: Crimea was never mentioned in the documents 07.03.2017 35
4.2.2. Conclusions of the four agreements
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|| 07.03.2017NECOM 36
5. Events after Minsk II agreement
5.1. Oct 2014 – Dec 2015Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Debaltseve “pocket”
12.02.15 Minsk 2 signed
12.02.15 IMF USD 40b bailout package
17.02.15 Ukrainian forces withdraw from Debaltseve
06.03.15 Ukraine and Russia agree to double OSCE monitoring mission
25.03.15 Oligarch Kolomoisky fired as Regional Governor
14.05.15 EU and NATO announce joint efforts to counter “Hybrid Warfare”
31.05.15 Saakashvili appointed as Odessa Governor
30.06.15 Gas talks – no agreement
19.07.15 US and Ukraine military exercises
28.07.15 Russia blocks UN resolution on MH17
03.08.15 Ex-Prime Minister announces “Ukraine Salvation Committee”
3.08.15 Second IMF tranche
23.08.15 Poroshenko calls for unity on constitutional questions
26.09.15 “Winter gas” package agreed
12.11.15 Power cables to Crimea and Pylons blown up
01.12.15 UKR-EUR-RUS talks on DCFTA technical implementation
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 37
5.2. Jan 2016 – Dec 201605.01.16 Ukraine petitions for UN peacekeeping mission
19.01.16 Ukraine raises transit costs for Russian gas
22.03.16 Savchenko sentenced for 22 years
01.04.16 US announces USD 335 MM in support
07.04.16 Dutch voters reject EU-UKR association agreement
15.05.16 Ukraine singer wins Eurovision song contest
23.05.16 MH17 families sue Putin and Russia in ECHR
29.05.16 Savchenko released
03.06.16 UKR-US USD 1B loan agreement
09.06.16 Savchenko calls for direct talks with separatists
07.09.16 US imposes export restriction on 81 Russian Entities
14.09.16 IMF approves USD 18 MM tranche to Kiev
28.09.16 MH17 investigations concluded
17.10.16 “Motorola” killed
07.11.16 Saakashvili resigns
05.12.16 Naftogas re-enters gas negotiations with Russia
08.12.16 EU approves visa-free travel for Ukraine and Georgia
15.12.16 EU extends sanctions against Russia
|| 07.03.2017NECOM 38
5.3. Jan 2017 – nowadays01.02.17. Poroshenko plans referendum to join NATO
01.02.17. Surge of violence
08.02.17. Rebel commander “Givi” killed
End of February 2017 Coal supply and railway from Donetsk and Lugansk blocked
01.03.17. Separatists seize control over coal producing companies
||
‘How the west lost Putin’, Financial Times (3.02.2015):
“US insiders say the president [Obama] feels Mr Putin was unresponsive to efforts to build a relationship. “Obama sees the world in win-win terms,
Putin sees it in zero-sum terms,” says the ex-diplomat.
In interview with ABC News Presidential Candidate Donald Trump says he will consider recognizing crimea as art of Russia: "But you
know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that, also.“
(30.07.2016)
NY Times: Secret Ledger Found in Ukraine Shows $12.7 mil Earmarked for Paul Manafort (15.08.2016)
A secret ledger found in the former office of a pro-Russian Ukrainian political party shows that $12.7 million was earmarked for Trump adviser Paul
Manafort over five years. Ukrainian prosecutors are also investigating Manafort’s involvement in offshore shell companies and purchase of
Ukrainian television assets with a Russian oligarch.
U.S. Imposes Export Restrictions on 81 Russian Entities (7.09.2016):
The U.S. Department of Commerce added 81 Russian entities to an export-control list as part of U.S. sanctions against Russia in response to
Russian actions in Ukraine. Many of the entities added to the Entity List are already sanctioned by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Eleven of
the entities on the list manufacture electronic components within the Russian Defense industry and were added to the list for evading previous
sanctions. The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security requires U.S. and Foreign companies to obtain additional licensing for
U.S.-origin items before exporting or re-exporting them to companies and individuals on the Entity List.
Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton meets with President Poroshenko
Both Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump were invited to meet with Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Hillary Clinton opted to meet with Poroshenko
on Monday September 19 and the two discussed the importance of continued sanctions imposed on Moscow after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in
2014. Donald Trump opted not to meet Poroshenko and moved on to other events on the campaign trail.
Poroshenko and Trump had a telephone conversation (15.11.2016):
In his first phone call with President-elect Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for Washington’s "resolute support...in
countering Russian aggression.” Poroshenko said he was ready to work with Trump's new administration to strengthen bilateral ties, according to a
statement posted on his website. He said the two agreed to meet in the future and that plans were being made for Poroshenko to visit Washington
early in 2017, although Poroshenko did not mention a specific date. Poroshenko also stressed the need for Washington’s support for Ukraine to
implement "crucial reforms." The conversation comes one day after Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone.
07.03.2017 39
5.4. US elections – “Trump factor”
NECOM
||
The war has had catastrophic consequences with 6000 fatalities,
destroyed infrastructure, and an even more precarious economic
situation in Ukraine
So far mixed results regarding the ceasefire agreement
Does the Minsk II meet the real interests of the parties?
UKR:
Free development of its relationship with the partners of their choice
Control the whole territory
RUS (more difficult to identify):
Keep zone of influence around Russia → limit the maneuverability of UKR
“Transnistrianization” of Novorossija
Show determination to protect Russian minorities
Access to Crimea and Moldova (Will Mariupol be the next Debaltseve?)
Enforcement of Russian interests has taken place
De facto division of Ukraine07.03.2017NECOM 40
6. Comments (NECOM-ETH)
