Ulf Ewaldsson Head of Radio Networks - Ericsson · PDF fileUlf Ewaldsson Head of Radio...

Towards LTE and Broadband everywhere

Ulf EwaldssonHead of Radio

Networks

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© Ericsson AB 2010 | Ericsson Capital Markets Day 2010 | 2

HSPA TRAFFIC SURPASSES GSM~ 15 MILLION NEW HSPA SUBS/MONTH

Source: WCIS/Informa and Ericsson

Fastest growing Internet technology

2007 2008 2009

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

WCDMA/HSPA

Speech + Data

GSM

Speech + Data

WCDMA

Speech

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3 waves of mobile connectivity

1000 x Traffic

50 Billion Connections

8 Billion subscribers

EVERYTHING & EVERYONE IS CONNECTED

MOBILE VOICE

MOBILE BROADBAND

RADIO IN ALL THINGS

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Mobile Broadband Growth

Global Mobile BB subscriptions

0

200

400

600

2009 20150

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2009 2015

Mil

lio

n s

ub

sc

rib

er

s

Bil

lio

n U

SD

Mobile operator data revenues

Source: Internal Ericsson

This slide contains forward looking statements

CAGR

~ 45%CAGR

~ 28%

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HSPA ECO SYSTEM SUCCESS

Sources: GSA, WCIS / Informa

› 341 networks– 143 countries

› 500 Million subscribers

› 2349 devices– Over 230 suppliers

GSM largest technology, followed by HSPA

Commercial

Commitments

Commercial

Commitments

http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://blogs.appliedconsultancy.com/acsl/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/300_blackberry_bold.jpg&imgrefurl=http://blogs.appliedconsultancy.com/acsl/&usg=__GuGgx053d5F9gbvDoKhIpI2tSQw=&h=446&w=300&sz=24&hl=sv&start=3&tbnid=uHukQQyXBjIXnM:&tbnh=127&tbnw=85&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dblackberry%2Bbold%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Dsv%26biw%3D1260

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Mass market smartphonesSales forecast

20-50% sales CAGR in all regions

Source: Pyramid research

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Traffic load ComparisonLoad per device

Data traffic

Sig

nali

ng

tra

ffic

Voice

Smart

Phones

PC-cards

Voice phones < Smart phones < PC-cards

180M

Growth: >5 million per month

120M

Growth: 4-5 million/month

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smartphone leadershipexample from commercial network

Subscribers per RNC & RBS

Ericsson

supplied

network*

World average*

Smartphone penetration

Ericsson

supplied

network*

World average (sold units)**

+

Source: * Ericsson estimates, ** Pyramid

2x > 50%

10-15%

1

Ericsson supplies most loaded smartphone networks

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7

21

28

42

84

168

…

HSPA

64QAM

MIMO

Multi carrier (2)+ 64QAM or

MIMO+ 64QAM

Multi carrier (2)+ 64QAM+ MIMO

orMulti carrier (4)

+ 64QAM

Multi carrier (4)+ 64QAM+ MIMO

HSPA evolutionpeak rate in mbps

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Commercial LTE Speed evolution

2009

2010

2014

Peak rate ~50 Mbps ~150 Mbps ~1000 Mbps

Typical user rate downlink 5-30 Mbps 10-100 Mbps Operator dependent

Typical user rate uplink 1-10 Mbps 5-50 Mbps Operator dependent

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The Network – a differentiator

< Half the

Latency

2x Faster

Downloads

+ 50%

Capacity

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Ericsson proud supplierTo all winners

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Why Ericsson RAN perform better than competition

Superior RX/TX Design

PARdesignPARideal

Ppeak

Paverage

BB1001010010

RAN System design

EUL10ms/HS

(maxSF16)

EUL10ms/HS

(maxSF32)

Cell_FACH

EUL10ms/HS

(maxSF8)

EUL10ms/HS

(maxSF4)

EUL2ms/HS

(max2*SF2)

EUL2ms/HS(max2*SF4+2*SF2)

EUL/HS

Cell_FACH

Competitor Ericsson

25 s

1 s

1.5dB better link budget

Filter characteristics & linearity

No power back-off at high speeds

Speed, Coverage & Capacity

Scheduler design & intelligence in RBS

Significantly lower delays in the system

Better user experience, less latency & signaling (30-50%)

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Revenues

Costs

45%

EBIT

Cost/Bit

Time

Traffic (Bit)

Business case challenge

GSM/EDGE

HSPA

LTE

Packet

CoreTraffic

shaping

3G Direct

Tunnel

LTE

Core

Evo RAN

3G2G

Microwave, Fiber

or copper

Metro – Ethernet

IP

LTE

Building blocks to bring down the cost per bit

Eco-system Good profit margin

Efficient RAN evolution Enhanced Packet Core High capacity mobile backhaul

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Business Case example: 50% Cost reduction possible per MBB sub

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Cost

($/sub/month)Bandwidth management & Traffic handling of “top 5%

users”

NW optimization

& utilization

Spectrum &

Energy savingsLonger PLC

10 yrs vs. 8 yrs.

1

2

3 4

...reaching TCO of < 4 $/Sub/Month!

*Subscription: 3GB per month,

7.2 Mbps

$ 3,5

$ 4,0

$ 0,7

$ 1,3

$ 0,6

$ 0,3

$ 0,5

$ 0,4

$ 2,8

$ 1,1

-27%

-11%

-11%

-10%

$ 7,5 $ 2,0

$ 3,9

US

D/s

ub &

month

Typical Ericsson

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LTE Commercial contractsBY OPERATOR SIZE

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ver

izon

*

AT&

T*

DO

CO

MO

*

KDDI

Met

roPC

S

Telia

Son

era

(SE)*

N4M

CSL

(HK)

Telen

or (N

)

Telia

Son

era

(N)

Telen

or (D

K)

Ericsson selected

Others selected

MSUBS

*=Other vendor involved in contract in addition to Ericsson

Subscriber figures from World Cellular Information Services, 12/2009

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HS+

100%

GPRS EDGE0%

HSWorld

Population

% Population

Coverage

GSM LTEWCDMA

World population of 6,8 Billion people

WCDMAGSM LTE

Metro

Urban

Sub

urban

Rural>85% >80%

>50%

30%

25%

3-5%<<1%

Mobile Broadband Going Forward

SW Upgrades

Capacity

expansion (Carriers &

RBS)

Coverage

extension

Business Opportunities

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50 billion connections 2020

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