0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Source: National Association of Realtors
Existing Homes Sold
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Note: * indicates seasonally adjusted annual rate for August.
Housing Market
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Source: National Association of Realtors
Average Sale Price of Existing Homes Sold
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Note: * indicates average sale price for August 2011.
Housing Market
22,655 23,685
13,660
9,642
14,942
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2q06-1q07 2q07-1q08 2q08-1q09 2q09-1q10 2q10-1q11
Source: Senior Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
Senior Housing Units Started
Construction
28.20%
27.60%
13.80%
10.70%
10.30%
8.30%
6.00%
4.00%
3.20%
1.10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Dallas, TX
Boston, MA
Philadelphia, PA
Washington, D.C.
Chicago, IL
New York, NY
St. Louis, MO
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles, CA
Miami, FL
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
Majority IL Inventory Growth (4/1/2006 through 3/31/2011)
43.10%
36.90%
18.80%
11.20%
9.40%
2.40%
1.40%
-1.20%
-2.80%
-3.10%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
Dallas, TX
Boston, MA
Washington, D.C.
Los Angeles, Ca
New York, NY
Philadelphia, PA
Miami, FL
Detroit, MI
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
Majority AL Inventory Growth (4/1/2006 through 3/31/2011)
12.10%
0.30%
-0.70%
-1.20%
-1.90%
-2.30%
-3.20%
-3.20%
-4.10%
-6%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Dallas, TX
St. Louis, MO
Miami, FL
Philadelphia, PA
New York, NY
Los Angeles, Ca
Boston, MA
Washington, D.C.
Chicago, IL
Detroit, MI
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
Majority NC Inventory Growth (4/1/2006 through 3/31/2011)
46
20
10
6
3
2
-4
-6
-9
-10
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Dallas, TX
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
Washington, D.C.
Boston, MA
Philadelphia, PA
Los Angeles, CA
Detroit, MI
Miami, FL
New York, NY
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
Change in Property Count (4/1/2006 through 3/31/2011)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2006* 2007* 2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: * indicates Top 75 Metropolitan Areas
Senior Housing Units Under Construction for Top 100 Metro Areas
Senior Apartments
Independent Living
Assisted Living
Nursing Care
Memory Care
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trend Report- 2006-2011
49%
16%
15%
20%
Distribution of Units Under Construction 2011
Senior Apartments 49%
Majority AL 16%
Majority NC 15%
Majority IL 20%
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
56%
8%
36%
Distribution of Senior Apartments Under Construction 2011
Affordable* 56%
Market Rate 8%
HUD 202 36%
Note: * indicates some form of tax credit or other affordable program
Source: Seniors Housing Construction Trends Report 2011
Sales Counselors Impact Success
14
Attributes with Strongest Correlations with the Performance Values
Performance Value = Rate x Occupancy
Variable Pearson Significance
Level1
Sales Counselor Focused on Solving Issues 0.626 0.0042
Median home value 0.533 0.0001
Increase in median income of 65+ households 0.479 0.0004
Increase in median income of 45-64 households 0.451 0.0010
Gestalt Score of community 0.449 0.0012
Increase in median income of 75+ households 0.436 0.0015
Architectural Style of Building 0.426 0.0020
Notes: Demographic/Economic data within in 5-mile Radius
87
.8%
92
.9%
96
.5%
89
.4%
94
.4%
97
.5%
86
.9%
92
.6%
96
.4%
86
.7%
91
.9%
95
.8%
83
.9%
89
.7%
94
.4%
82
.9%
90
.2%
94
.9%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile
Source: The State of Senior Housing
All Communities Occupancy
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Occupancy
88
.8%
93
.8%
97
.0%
90
.2%
95
.0%
98
.7%
86
.9%
93
.1%
96
.9%
86
.2%
91
.5%
95
.5%
81
.9%
87
.9%
93
.0%
77
.1%
84
.6%
91
.6%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile
Source: The State of Senior Housing
Independent Living Occupancy
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
85
.7%
90
.7%
96
.1%
88
.1%
93
.3%
96
.5%
85
.1%
90
.6%
94
.7%
90
.1%
94
.1%
97
.5%
86
.0%
90
.6%
96
.2%
84
.9%
91
.9%
96
.2%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile
Source: The State of Senior Housing
Assisted Living Occupancy
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
88
.1%
94
.4%
97
.5%
86
.8%
92
.0%
96
.1%
86
.8%
91
.3%
96
.0%
84
.2%
90
.8%
95
.0%
83
.5%
91
.6%
96
.4%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile
Source: The State of Senior Housing
Memory Care Occupancy
2006*
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: No Memory Care data for 2006
90
.4%
94
.0%
95
.8%
89
.5%
90
.7%
94
.3%
90
.20
%
93
.60
% 96
.10
%
87
.80
%
91
.50
% 94
.20
%
85
.60
%
89
.90
%
94
.10
%
83
%
88
%
92
.40
%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile
Source: The State of Senior Housing
CCRC Occupancy
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Seniors Housing Year-over-year Rent Growth Distribution; MAP31
Negative Unchanged (0%) Stable (1 - 3%) Rising (> 3%)
Properties Beginning to Rise Rents Again
22
Source: NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
© National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry | www.NICMAP.org
-1
0
1
2
3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Seniors Housing Annual Supply-Demand(%); MAP31
Forecast
Demand Likely to Continue Outpacing Supply
23 © National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry | www.NICMAP.org
Source: NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
Annual Inventory Growth
Annual Absorption
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
2008 2009 2010 2011
Seniors Housing Occupancy (%)
MAP32-100 Continues to Lead Recovery
24 © National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry | www.NICMAP.org
Source: NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
MAP31
MAP32-100
0
1
2
3
4
2009 2010 2011
Seniors Housing Year-over-year Rent Growth (%)
MAP32-100 Maintaining Higher Rent Growth
25 © National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry | www.NICMAP.org
Source: NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
MAP31
MAP32-100
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Seniors Housing Supply-Demand Forecast*; MAP31
Occupancy (R)
Acceleration in the Recovery in Sight?
© National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry | www.NICMAP.org 26
Source: NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
Inventory Growth (L)
Absorption (L)
Forecast
*Source: NIC Research Internal Forecast Model
Sales Counselors Impact Success
29
Attributes with Strongest Correlations with the Performance Values
Performance Value = Rate x Occupancy
Variable Pearson Significance
Level1
Sales Counselor Focused on Solving Issues 0.626 0.0042
Median home value 0.533 0.0001
Increase in median income of 65+ households 0.479 0.0004
Increase in median income of 45-64 households 0.451 0.0010
Gestalt Score of community 0.449 0.0012
Increase in median income of 75+ households 0.436 0.0015
Architectural Style of Building 0.426 0.0020
Notes: Demographic/Economic data within in 5-mile Radius