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ATS ULTra Status Report• PPT will NOT be posted on the web, not for
distribution• Agenda
– Some discussion items. What will the future hold?– Heathrow Terminal 5 status. Schedule– Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0– VisiCalc, Lotus 123, MS Excel– “Road based” PRT– Market forecast– Swedish IST/GTS– Safety certification.
LHR Terminal 5 Opens March ’08N
Car Park to T5
3.8 km of track18 vehicles300,000 pax paULTra Opens April 2008
T5: 3rd largest “airport”
?Morgantown complexity?Full Heathrow Build: bigger system, in phases
Heathrow (LHR) Terminal 5 Status• BAA: privatized, owns LHR + 6 airports
– Contracts: Baltimore, Logan, Pittsburg, Indianapolis, Naples
• 100% private sector funding!• Happy customer (per Mar/Apr TransitPulse ’08 Article by BAA)
– “on time and on budget”– 2 year Heathrow study: low emissions, high LOS, space
efficient, value. Bus & APM lost. “PRT: only practical soln, 60% travel time svngs, 40% operating cost savings”
– Held open procurement: ULTra won– Phased Heathrow implementation
• Happy customer: new animation– BAA PR machine, not ATS PR.
Schedule slip: Fall ’08 Spring ’09• Not: engineering underestimate or parts issue
• ATS has met all schedule milestones for Cardiff test track and Heathrow T5
• The schedule slip:– Was an administrative slip – Ferrovial’s $20BB acquisition of BAA had some
schedule impact.
Schedule (some wiggle)• Column footings complete Jan ‘08• Infrastructure complete May ’08
– Columns, spans, concrete running surfaces– Calibration (“learn the guideway”) starts May ‘08
• Stations with glass doors & touch screens, May ’08– Also for 2008: Cardiff track copies LHR stations
• Guideway “fitted out” Oct ’08 (AVP, etc)– AVP – automatic vehicle protection
• Commissioning starts Oct ’08 – empty vehicles first, then with passengers
• 18th vehicle arrives Dec ’08• Guideway really does build fast
– 4 person, evening crew. 1 column or 1 span per night
• Cost: $10 to $15 MM per mile, depending …– For ULTra systems #2 through #5.
VisiCalc, Lotus 123, Excel• Is ATS VisiCalc? Is Vectus Lotus 123? Who
will be Microsoft? Genteel?
VisiCalc, Lotus 123, Excel• ATS first mover advantage?
• How much does having the best design matter?
• Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, Excel 98, Excel XP, ….
• Is ULTra V1.0 “road-based” PRT too simple? – Ingmar’s study: Skyweb chosen as best– Attendees: rate ULTra design vs. competition
• What will ULTra V1.5 include? V2.0? What version did BAA invest $15MM in?
Batteries add weight, limit speed/range?
• For BAA’s long term Heathrow vision, is ULTra range an issue? If so, why would BAA invest?
• How much do ATS batteries weigh? – Vs. Tesla motors
• Road-based PRT: AHS + electric cars– Drive-by-wire versus traditional PRT mechanical switching– Advances in batteries (etc) & auto sensor technologies
benefit road-based PRT, and reduce cost.
ULTra: Is guideway too bulky?• Attendees: rate ULTra guideway visual impact
• What about Megarail guideway? What if ULTra V1.5 was similar?
When is the PRT Tipping Point?
• How many system contracts in 2008?– Versus “announcements”– What’s the deal with Dubai & Masdar?
• When will customers ask for PRT (like BAA?) – Customer studies feature PRT (like BAA)?
• When do sales go exponential?
• Will Fortune 1,000 companies enter? – Will they be genteel?
Socialism/Capitalism & PRT
• Did Bill Gates cooperate with competition? Should ATS cooperate?
• Will ATS’s value as a company increase from cooperation? Or do investors look for a sustainable technological advantage?
• IST/GTS standardized (suspended) PRT scheme– Vendors relegated to being vehicle suppliers
• What would Bill Gates say? Linux O/S running Excel.
Safety Certification• ASCE APM Standards
– ULTra meets the current standard– ATS and BAA are committee members
• UK Rail Inspectorate: similar to U.S. plus “safety designed in.” – Independent safety team meets with ULTra design team
regularly. Team adds new features to address safety cases.
– Inspectorate: “better than traditional systems”
• 361 hazard cases– Earthquake, truck crashes into column, falling debris, fire,
bad people, extreme weather, vehicle fails on guideway, slipping on stairs, etc.
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