38
086-8280978 [email protected] www.esdtraining.net Un Sustainable Development Sustainable Production and Consumption Climate Change Energy
UnSustainableDevelopment
Sustainable ProductionandConsumption
Climate Change
Energy
Economic
Social
Bio-physical
The World is no longer divided by the ideology of
left or right.
But by those who believe in ecological
limits and those who don’t.
Social
BiophysicalEconomic
Social
Biophysical
Economic
Population
Resources
Time
Thomas Robert Malthus
Malthusian catastrophe
www.igbp.net
No. 71, May 2008
The Global Change NewsLetter is the quarterly newsletter of
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP).
IGBP is a programme
of global change
research, sponsored
by the International
Council for Science.
Sustainable Livelihoods in a Changing Earth System
Global Environmental Change and the Developing World
“Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure” W. Steffen et al (2004),
www.igbp.net
No. 71, May 2008
The Global Change NewsLetter is the quarterly newsletter of
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP).
IGBP is a programme
of global change
research, sponsored
by the International
Council for Science.
Sustainable Livelihoods in a Changing Earth System
Global Environmental Change and the Developing World
“Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure” W. Steffen et al (2004),
www.igbp.net
No. 71, May 2008
The Global Change NewsLetter is the quarterly newsletter of
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP).
IGBP is a programme
of global change
research, sponsored
by the International
Council for Science.
Sustainable Livelihoods in a Changing Earth System
Global Environmental Change and the Developing World
“Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure” W. Steffen et al (2004),
www.igbp.net
No. 71, May 2008
The Global Change NewsLetter is the quarterly newsletter of
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP).
IGBP is a programme
of global change
research, sponsored
by the International
Council for Science.
Sustainable Livelihoods in a Changing Earth System
Global Environmental Change and the Developing World
“Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure” W. Steffen et al (2004),
Energy
The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable
•Environmentally•Economically•Socially
But that can and must be altered; there’s still time to change the road we’re on.
Security of Supply
4 reasons to change our relationship with oil
Peak Oil
Climate Change
Efficient Use
40.5
Asia Pacific
59.9
North America
103.5
S. & Cent. America
117.2
Africa
144.4
Europe & Eurasia
742.7
Middle East
Proved reserves at end 2006 - Billion barrels
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007 Security of Supply
GHGs from Energy
Climate Change
57%43%
Fossil Fuels
Rest of Global GHG
Fossil Fuels
Dr Colin J. Campbell,Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Peak Oil
The Growing Energy Gap - Regular conventional oil
Discovery
Future discovery
Production
Hubbert production curve
2nd oil crisis (1979)
1st oil crisis (1973)
Largest oil field
(Saudi Arabia)
2nd largest oil field
(Kuwait)
3rd oil crisis (2008)
Dr Colin J. Campbell,Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
0-0.75
0.75-1.5
1.5-2.25
2.25-3.0
> 3.0
Consumption of oil per capita 2006
0-0.75
> 3.0
2.25-3.0
1.5-2.25
0.75-1.5
Tonnes
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007 Efficient Use
Crude Oil Imports by Country of Origin 2006
Rest Europe
Denmark
UK
Norway cond
Norway-NGL
Norway
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Norway UK Algeria Denmark Libya
se
nn
ot '0
00
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
2
4
6
8
10
Oil
pro
du
cti
on
in[M
b/d
]
2009
Oil production in OECD Europe
SEISecurity of Supply in Ireland 2007
Crude Oil – the Supply OutlookReport to the Energy Watch Group October 2007
83%
Peak
Climate Change
Cloud and Precipitation Simulation
Weather or Climate
Solar Radiation Changes in the Earth’s orbit or in the Sun itself
Climate on Earth has always changed!
Reflected Solar RadiationChanges in cloud cover, aerosols, land and ice cover
Altering long-wave energy radiated back to space
Changes in green-house gas concentrations
Local Climate Conditionshow heat is distributed by winds and ocean currents
CO2 Chemistry
BBC 2008 'Climate Wars'
Our breathing world
Since 1957 Mauna Loa has been continuously monitoring CO2
Year on Yearincrease in CO2 concentrations
Current CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are 387 ppmv
Winter
Summer
150
200
250
300
350
400
100000200000300000400000 02004006008001000
South pole air
Law Dome cores
Vostok cores
Atm
osp
her
ic C
O2 p
pm
v
Years before present
Composite of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 400,000 BP to 1978 AD
Science Highlights: Ice Core Science Records From Coastal Ice Cores VIN MORGAN
VOL.14, N°1 – APRIL 2006
Global average surface temperature
Global average sea level
Northern Hemisphere snow cover
IPCC - Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Climate Change is Unequivocal
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.
Volume 53, Number 26
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
>7 ℃
6-7 ℃
5-6 ℃
4-5 ℃
3-4 ℃
1-2 ℃
T H
E G
RE
E
NHOUSE
G
AM
BL
E
C h a n g e i n
Gl o
ba
l Me
an
Te
m
perature 1990-21
00
(°
C)
NO
PO
L I CY
Volume 53, Number 26
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
1-2 ℃3-4 ℃4-5 ℃5-6 ℃6-7 ℃>7 ℃
1%11%30%34%15%9%
3-4 ℃
2.5-3 ℃
2-2.5 ℃
1-2 ℃
C h a n g e i n
Gl o
ba
l Me
an
Te
m
perature 1990-21
00
(°
C)
W
I TH
P
OL I C Y
T H
E G
RE
E
NHOUSE
G
AM
BL
E
Volume 53, Number 26
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
1-2 ℃2-2.5 ℃2.5-3 ℃3-4 ℃
21%42%27%10%
Unravelling the climate change story
KICK THE HABIT 2008
HumanActivities
Climate Change
Processes
Main Climatic Features
Major Threats
DNALERI
Built-up land
Fishing ground
Forest
Grazing land
Cropland
Carbon footprint
HOW BIG IS
YOUR BUBBLE?
Greenhouse gas emissions per person in Ireland
17,000kg per year
Global Average
5,500kg per year
Build one square meter of a concrete
house
1000 km flight
business class
100 W bulb
running for 20 days
36kg
510kg438
kg
Running a TV for a year23kg
Running a computer for 100 hours
9kg
One year of an average meat diet
2190kg
One year of an average vegan diet190kg
Annual methane emissions from the farts and burps of a cow
3500kg
Producing one egg (battery chicken)
.07kg
Producing a burger 6kg
Running all kitchen appliances for a year. 80kg
Lighting a house for a year 135kg
Flight Paris-New York and return (average emission per passenger)
3670kg
Emissions from one tonne of food waste going to landfill
1060kg
Driving 250 kilometres36kg
Producing one kilogram of beef 17kg
Manufacturing a mobile phone 60kg
Using a mobile for a year112kg
Manufacturing a computer and a monitor275kg
Driving a small car
10 km in a traffic jam 6kg
kgTraveling 1000 km by train
44kg
100 kw of electricity from coal
95kg 100 kw of electricity from solar 5.5kg
KICK THE HABIT
2008
17,000kg per year
“Contraction and Convergence”
kg per year
1,000
By 2050
“Contraction and Convergence”
Sustainable Productionand Consumption
Closing the Gap
Annual insuredlosses
Five-yearmovingaverage
Annual insuredlosses (US$billions)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1995 20051990 2000
Insurance Claims
India
China
World excl.
China and India
World
The expanding world middle class
People with income between US$ 6,000 and US$ 30,000 in millions of people
Sustainable Consumption Facts and TrendsFrom a business perspective 2008
1980 20301990 20401970 20201960 20102000 2050
3,500
2,500
4,500
4,000
2,000
1,500
500
1,000
0
The Business Role Focus Area
From a businessperspective
SustainableConsumption
Facts and Trends
There are now clear signs that consumption must a they brought a are increasingly of central concern to business.
The role of business is to work in partnership with our customers and stakeholders to define,
what is a sustainable product? and what is a sustainable lifestyle?
Sustainable Consumption Facts and TrendsFrom a business perspective 2008
Economymanagement of the household
Ecologystudy of the household
In 2003 Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s
described the NICE decade
Drivers of last ten years of
economic growth
Rise of emerging markets
China, India, BrazilGrowingasset values
investment often
debt-funded
Growingconsumption
both mass and personalised
Growing global population
growing global middle class, aging population in
developed world
Growing business success
globalised competition ratchets up performance
Innovationthe networked world
Regulation for globalised markets
WTO, privatisation
Relatively cheap inputs
finance, energy, food, commodities
The Non-Inflationary Constant Expansion (NICE) decade
Acting now for a positive 2018, preparing for radical change the next decade of business and sustainability
Drivers of last ten years of
economic growth
Rise of emerging markets
China, India, BrazilGrowingasset values
investment often
debt-funded
Growingconsumption
both mass and personalised
Growing global population
growing global middle class, aging population in
developed world
Growing business success
globalised competition ratchets up performance
Innovationthe networked world
Regulation for globalised markets
WTO, privatisation
Relatively cheap inputs
finance, energy, food, commodities
Infrastructurebottlenecks
commodity crunch, food price inflation
Asset bubbles and toxic debt
credit crunch
Global ecosystem overshoot
climate, food, flood,
defences...
People with unmet needs, or feeling
left behindgroups who feel resentment at
changing world
Will the response to overshoot be
nationalistic or globally coordinated?
How well will we understand Earth
System Science?
How wide-spread will that
knowledge be?
What will the impacts of global
ecosystem overshoot be?
How fast will they develop?
Will global middle-class adopt
Western consumption patterns?
What will evolving public attitudes
be to sustainability and to business?
How much global
movement of people will
there be?
How will the desire for more
certainty and security in a
turbulent world affect politics?
How will organisations be organised, with new technologies and geo-political context?
How will companies from
emerging markets affect
business culture?
How will governments
engage businesses to deliver
public services or goods?
What sort of ‘networked world’
will emerge?
How will innovation address
overshoot and how will the new
technologies be taken up?
What will be the perceived
role of business and how will
markets be regulated?
Will elites around the world
support global institutions?
Will the workforce
develop the skills
needed?
How will China develop?
How will the more multi-polar world play out?
How will growing investment from emerging markets play out?
How will financial markets
be regulated?
Acting now for a positive 2018, preparing for radical change the next decade of business and sustainability
The nasty consequences of the NICE decade
Global biocapacity3
2
4
1
5
6
0
1970 197519651960 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ser
atc
eh l
ab
o lG
3EUROPE 2005: THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Ecological Footprint
HUMANITY’S ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Resources & Ecosystems are in
DECLINE
Demand for resources, population
and waste is INCREASING
Environmentalsphe
re
Economicsphere
slair
etaM
ssamoiB
ygr
enE
sno issi
mE
snoissi
mE
Emissions
snoissimE
snoissi
mE
snoissi
mE
Emissions
Transp
ort
Rec
ycling
Energy
Rawma
terials
Pro
ducts
Servic
es
Extraction
Production
Consumption
Waste
Life-Cycle Chain from extractionthrough Production to Consumption and Waste
The challenge for society is to break the link between economic growth and the environmental impacts arising from commercial production/service provision, resource use, consumption and waste generation.
Irelandʼs envIronment 2008
W
aste
1
Smarter and Cleaner
Consuming and
producing sustainably yet we consume half of the world’s meat production, one quarter of its paper and 15% of its energy.
EU citizens make up less than 10% of the world’s population
2
Extraction of
Natural
Resources
Reuse,Recycling,Recovery
Collection
Use
Design
Manufacturing
Distribution
Direct emissions
Coal? Nuclear?
Renewables?
Fuel efficiency?
Biofuel?
Heat
Electricity
Fuel
Workers
[ “on site” emissions ]
Working conditions
(needs)
Daily commuting
Personal car?
Public transportation?
Business travel
Plane?
Train?
Indirect emissions[ unavoidable related emissions ]
Plastic share?Over packaging?
Packaging
Loading [ unloading ]
Truck? Ship?
Plane?
Transport
Cafeteria
Heating and cooling
working space
Lighting
Water heating
Building maintenance
Building use
etc.
What treatment?
Waste
Energyrecovery?
Energy recovery?
Byproducts?
Production process
Computers running
Machinery running
Heating or cooling processes
Cleaning processes
etc.
Packaging material productionplastics
cardboard
Access roads and
car parks
Building design and construction
including:
Communication networks
Insulation?
Energy efficiency?
Related
construction
activity
Energy needs (and related Ghg emissions)
Direct emissions
Coal? Nuclear?
Renewables?
Fuel efficiency?
Biofuel?
Heat
Electricity
Fuel
Workers
[ “on site” emissions ]
Working conditions
(needs)Questions to ask
while assessing
(and possible leeways
for improvements)
Subcontractors
or related
activity
Daily commuting
Personal car?
Public transportation?
Business travel
Plane?
Train?
Working
conditions
Daily commuting
Business travel
Indirect emissions[ unavoidable related emissions ]
Plastic share?Over packaging?
Packaging
Loading [ unloading ]
Truck? Ship?
Plane?
Transport
To next step in the production line
Local network?
To distribution network
To end-user or customerWaste
Reusing? Recycling?Takeback practices?
To subcontractor
[ From subcontractor ]
Cafeteria
Heating and cooling
working space
Lighting
Water heating
Building maintenance
Building use
etc.
What treatment?
Waste
Energyrecovery?
Energy recovery?
Byproducts?
Production process
Computers running
Machinery running
Heating or cooling processes
Cleaning processes
etc.
Packaging material productionplastics
cardboard
Machines and tools
design and manufacturing
Vehicles
Computers
including:
steel
aluminium
plastics
Related
engineering and
manufacturing
activities
Raw material
productionOrigin?
Energy cost
of extraction
or production?
Related
mining
activity
chemicals
aluminium
plastics
asphalt
concrete
cement
wood
glass
Access roads and
car parks
Building design and construction
including:
Communication networks
Insulation?
Energy efficiency?
Related
logging
activity Related
construction
activity
Energy flow
Workers and related activities Raw material flow
Transformed products flowEmissions Assessment
Energy needs (and related Ghg emissions)
CO2 emissions over the life cycle of an average vehicle
3% Use - parts 81% Use - fuel
16%Production
Sustainable Consumption Facts and TrendsFrom a business perspective 2008
1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020
noitavonnI
1st Wave
IronWater powerMechanization
TextilesCommerce
2nd Wave
Steam powerRailroad
SteelCotton
3rd Wave
ElectricityChemicalsInternal
combustion engine
PetrochemicalsElectronicsAviationSpace
4th Wave
Digital networksBiotechnology
Softwareinformationtechnology
5th Wave
6th Wave
SustainabilityRadical resource
productivityWhole system design
BiomimicryGreen chemistryIndustrial ecologyRenewable energy
Green nanotechnology
Waves of Innovation
BiomimicryInnovation Inspired by
Nature
A Less Sustainable Economy Based on Maximising Throughput
High Entropy Waste
Low Entropy Inputs
Cultural Capital
Production and Consumption Maintenance
Solar
Resource Extraction
EcoSystem Services
Negative Externalities
Waste
Streams
Negative Externalities
Maximising Throughput
A More Sustainable Economy Based on Minimizing Throughput
High Entropy Waste
Low Entropy Inputs
Production and Consumption
Cultural Capital Maintenance
Solar
Resource Extraction
EcoSystem Services
Waste Stream
Management
Investment in Natural Capital
Minimising Throughput
Re u
se
Recycle
Reduce
Environmental Management System
Management Review
Business as usual!
Future trendsFocus on Sustainability
“moving toward a sustainable future and a sustainable competitive company”
Old WayCompliance based
“as bad as the law allows”
New WayEnvironmental Management System
ISO 14001 & EMAS “moving beyond compliance”
Case Study
“If a single, $1 billion
company can make a
difference, imagine the impact
if everyone did it”
Ray AndersonCEO Interface
3002–1691
tnirptooF lacigolocE
WWF LIVING PLANET REPORT 2006
S tfihs wol
r dipaR e noitcud
,0012–3002 s oiranec s
)0502 ot( lausu sa ssenisub etaredoM
L I V I N G P L A N E T R E P O R T 2 0 0 6
Our Choice to Change or Not
Overshoot
8.0
6.0
4.1
6.1
0
2.0
4.0
2.1
8.1
0.1
0691 0891 0002 0202 0402 0602 0802 0012
Nu
mb
er
of
pla
net
Eart
hs
Actual impacts
Process of Change
EU finance ministers 12/2/08
!"#"$%&'()*+$'#%&),+-%./)*'#0%+&1
Time
Intrinsic goal
Recognition
Agreements
"Desired" impacts
1
2
3
Land and oceansystem inertia
4
1
identifying and accepting that climate change is a reality
2negotiating agreements on how to deal with it
3
developing and implementing the solutions required
4internal dynamics of the land and ocean systems
Technologies& solutions
Before CO2 > 400ppmv
"the costs of action at the global level – at up to three per cent of global GDP by 2030 – are estimated to be far lower than the costs of inaction."
Receiving catastrophic news
The Kübler-Ross model
1.Denial
2.Anger
3.Fear
4.Bargaining
5.Acceptance
Great
Depression
End of WW II
1st Smoking
Cancer Concern
1st Surgeon
General!s Report
Fairness Doctrine
Messages on
TV and Radio
Nonsmokers! Rights
Movement Begins
Federal Cigarette Tax Doubles
1st World Conference on Smoking and Health
Broadcast
Ad Ban1st Great American
Smokeout
Nicotine
Medications
Available Over the
Counter
Surgeon
General!s Report on Environmental
Tobacco Smoke
Master Settlement
Agreement
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
00
91 1
95
00
19
1 1915 0
29
19
125 0
39
1 1935 0
49
1
54
91
05
91 1
95
59
160
91
65
1970
19
57
91
80 5
89
1
09
91 1
95
90
200
re
bm
un
Historical Points in Annual Adult Per Capita Cigarette Consumption in the US, 1900-1998
Office on Smoking and Health (Office on Smoking and Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and
Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1999).
