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Uncertainties in policy development of BwN projects-
Is ambiguity more important than content?
Ronald E. van den Hoek and Marcela Brugnach
University of Twente
IGS-SENSE Conference 2011 – 20 October 2011
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Why is uncertainty important for BwN?
Building with NatureBuilding in Nature
Use natural system dynamics ≈ accept uncertainty
The role of uncertainty fundamentally changes!
What does this mean for policy development?
Control the system, reduce uncertainty
1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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What is uncertainty?
UnpredictabilityLack of knowledge Ambiguity
1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
Uncertainty is important for policy development. Policy-makers prefer to be certain before spending money or making decisions
Types of uncertainty:
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Objectives of my PhD research
Assess how uncertainty is evaluated in BwN policy development
Identify (types of) uncertainties relevant for BwN policy development
1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
Identify effective strategies to cope with uncertainty in BwN
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Case study: Sand Engine
1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
Large-scale sand nourishment (21.5 million m3 of sand)
Natural dynamics distribute sand for natural dune development
Coastal maintenance
New nature and recreational area
Innovation and learning
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Results
Document analysis and interviews
Typical examples of important uncertainties Potential Sand Engine “project killers” 3 uncertainties of specific interest for interviewees
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Uncertainty about recreational safety (1)
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Uncertainty about recreational safety (2)
Interviewees vs. opponents Agree that conditions are unpredictable Disagree whether area can be kept safe
Ambiguity!
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Uncertainty about drinking water safety (1)
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Uncertainty about drinking water safety (2)
Project team vs. drinking water stakeholder Is Sand Engine a potential risk for fresh water supply?
Stakeholder: big issue and requires study If not: official complaint, causing a “killer delay”! Agreement needed within two weeks while parties
largely disagree
Ambiguity!
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (1)
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (2)
price/m3 sand is half of normal!
Project team: Sand Engine is an attractive and feasible project
Will constructor say: Sand Engine is too expensive?
Anxiety for ambiguity!
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Conclusions
Building with NatureBuilding in Nature
BwN changes the role of uncertainty in policy development
Ambiguity is more important in BwN than uncertainty due to deficit of knowledge
1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Social processes more important than technology
“Technically, the Sand Engine is not very exciting. Sand nourishment, the Dutch can do that, right? But other parties as well. There is a lot of expertise… The specificity of this project is its fast development process, cooperation and managing the environment. There are the real dynamics and uncertainties.”
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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
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Questions
Ronald E. van den Hoek
University of Twente
www.ecoshape.nl
Thank you for your attention!
1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions
