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Uncertainty and complexity in Mainstreaming Climate Change, Forestry, and Sustainable Development BT Costantinos, PhD Climate Change, Forestry and Sustainable Development: Emerging Challenges International Conference On the Occasion of the 30 th Anniversary of Wondo Genet College 20-21 March, 2009 Population and Global Warming - Local and Global Context: SL and Ecosystem Health Approaches i Humanity stands at a defining moment in its history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities … a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the deterioration of the ecosystems... However, integration of environment and devel- opment concerns, and a greater attention to them will lead to the fulfilment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems and a safer, more prosperous future. No nation can achieve this on its own; but together we can— in a global partnership for sustainable development. Preamble of Agenda 21:1.1 of the Rio Declaration, UNCED 1992
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  • Uncertainty and complexity in Mainstreaming Climate Change, Forestry,

    and Sustainable Development BT Costantinos, PhD

    Climate Change,

    Forestry and Sustainable Development: Emerging Challenges

    International Conference On the Occasion of the 30th Anniversary of Wondo Genet College

    20-21 March, 2009

    Population and Global Warming - Local and Global Context: SL and Ecosystem

    Health Approachesi

    Humanity stands at a defining moment in its history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities … a worsening of

    poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the deterioration of the ecosystems... However, integration of environment and devel-opment concerns, and a greater attention to them will lead to the fulfilment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems and a safer, more prosperous

    future. No nation can achieve this on its own; but together we can—in a global partnership for sustainable development.

    Preamble of Agenda 21:1.1 of the Rio Declaration,

    UNCED 1992

  • Contents Introduction 1

    Policy Analytical Consideration in Sustainable Development and Ecosystem Conservation 2 The Population Challenge, Livelihood Security and Ecosystem Health in Ethiopia 4

    Achieving Sustainable Livelihoods -- Environmental and Population Action Plan 5 Issues, problems and opportunities in the Environment and Forestry Sector 8

    Guides for developing a joint Population and Environmental Development Plan of Action 15 The Leadership Challenge in Policy Management By Way Of Conclusion 17

    Annex 1. Indeed global warming is happening 19 Endnotes and references 20

    Abbreviations and acronyms CHE Centre for Human Environment CoP Communities of Practice CSOs Civil Society Organisations FTPP Forests, Trees, and People Programme GW Global Warming ICT Information communication Technology IIED International Institute for Environment

    and development IISD International Institute for Sustainable

    Development KM Knowledge management MDG Millennium Development Goals M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MTAs Multilateral Trade Agreements MTCS Multi-track communications Systems

    NFNS National Food and Nutrition Strategy NPPE The National Population Policy of Ethiopia NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NRM Natural Resources Management PSC Population Supporting Capacity Study PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper RBA rights/asset-based development SD Sustainable Development SL Sustainable Livelihoods SLA Sustainable Livelihoods Approach UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Conven-

    tion on Climate Change UNCED United Nations Conference on Environ-

    ment and Development WB World Bank

    Uncertainty and complexity in mainstreaming demographic variables in

    Sustainable Development in Ethiopia Bt Costantinos, PhD

    Abstract Background: Ethiopia’s environmental and demographic challenges augur on the poverty of its people that are chronically dependent on international charity and heavily reliant on primary production that is vulnerable to ex-treme fluctuations in weather. The population has tripled in four decades and it is continuing to grow fast - pre-senting an interdisciplinary challenge; where environmental impact studies shows that even using the "achievable optimum" model with all interventions, no improvement is observed in the population supporting capacity of com-munities in Ethiopia.

    Issues: The major constraints to the forestry sector in particular and the live natural resources in general are: absence of a clearly defined forest policy, lack of strong and stable institution responsible for the forestry sector, lack of the past government's recognition of the seriousness of the situation and lack of a participatory approach in the implementation of social forestry programmes. Unless the above listed constraints are solved, there will be little hope for the forestry sector to bring about a significant and positive impact on the development and conservation of the country's forest re-sources. The population policy of Ethiopia describes the rationale for population programmes, and prescribes organ-isational mechanisms in the government for implementation; containing (as strategies) a mixture of programme interventions, new laws, studies and recommendations. Nevertheless, this has yet to show the results. What went wrong? Structural and policy impediments to develop and implement strategic land use plan and environmental policy of Ethiopia focus on social, political and bureaucratic hindrances to manage effective environment and popu-lation policies addressing uncertainty (lack of information, knowledge and predictability of courses of events) and complexity (systems components, differentiation and interdependence). Indubitably, population growth and climate change are critically linked. Population is a major factor in the extent of warming and will very much determine the effects on the livelihoods of that population. Greater human numbers may limit the ways societies can respond or adapt to a rise in sea level, changes in precipitation patterns, and other products of warming.

    Objectives: Mainstreaming demographic and environmental concerns in stemming GW will augur on developing a working knowledge on demographic variables, population dynamics, and environmental development. Analyses and managing rational policies that have demographic impacts and the requisite social, cultural, political, spiritual, and human capital and corporate social responsibility are required. The themes of the paper underpin a critique of the current polices and proposal for reform and strategic tools of implementation: options, scenarios, and modalities for priming policy and strategic instruments for sustainable livelihoods.

    Conclusion: Policy dialogue on this timely and apposite issue will legitimately enhance the leadership capacity to effect change; however constrained by political doctrine, ideological leanings, and agencies they derive their power from. They are expected to develop the capacity, through their statements and actions, to shape debate, dialogue, and morality, to determine what is socially acceptable, culturally sound, and politically uplifting. Indeed, leadership is a calling and policy leadership requires intimate knowledge of public policy analysis, formulation, management and strategic plans and implementing them. This is especially important in a nation when the policy imperatives involve trying to change attitudes and behaviour of a national psyche; only informed by violent conflicts.

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 1

    Introduction:

    The opening salvo of the UN Millennium Declaration proclaims: “We recognise that… we have a collective responsibility to uphold the principles of human dignity, equality, and equity at the global level”. It identified urgent, collective commitments and ambitious targets with clearly defined dead-lines to be achieved by 2015. The MDGs focus on reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality, im-proving maternal health and combating major diseases, achieving universal primary education, em-powering women, ensuring environmental sustainability, enabling global economic environment and strengthening partnership between countries. Population and environmental policies are necessary parts of the MDGs - social, political, and economic governance.

    SD and sustainability have become buzzwords in the activities of nations and societies. One could hear the SD echo of the Kyoto Protocol almost on a daily basis on all major international news media “capturing the attention not only of environmental scientists and activists but also of some main-stream economists, social scientists, and policy makers”.2 The over one hundred concepts on SD have “almost exploded across academic disciplines as well as among national and international policy cir-cles, although the actual conceptual differences among them seem to be quite superficial”.3

    This abundance of hypotheses4 offered by almost all stakeholders in the academia, policy analysts, institutions of SD…5 without restraint have become confusing to policy makers and new entrants into the market. Indeed SD requires at the very outset “some classification of such fragmented, overlap-ping, and repetitive concepts into broader conceptual categories: the human-centred perspective; the eco-centred perspective, and a combination of both the dualistic perspective, which fo-cuses on both human and environmental concerns. Human security and development are both fundamentally concerned with the lives of human beings -- longevity, education, and opportunities for participation. Human security complements human development by deliberately focusing on "down-side risks.” It recognises the conditions that menace survival, the continuation of daily life and the dignity of human.6

    On the other hand, “human population growth and climate change are critically linked. First, the size of the population and its activities will be major factors in the extent of warming. It will in any case have great impact on the extent of global warming and its consequences for society, the economy, and the environment. Second, population size will very much determine the effects on that population of climate change. Greater human numbers may limit the ways societies can respond or adapt to a rise in sea level, changes in precipitation patterns, and other products of warming”.7

    The major constraints to the forestry sector in particular and the live natural resources in general are: absence of a clearly defined forest policy, lack of strong and stable institution responsible for the forestry sector, lack of the past government's recognition of the seriousness of the situation and lack of a participatory approach in the implementation of social forestry programmes. Unless the above constraints are solved, there will be little hope for the forestry sector to bring about a significant and positive impact on the development and conservation of the country's forest resources. The suggested solutions and strategies to overcome these are as follows: Formulations of ap-propriate and clear environmental and forest policies are a prerequisite for successful forestry develop-ment in Ethiopia. Key areas that require clear policy statement include: the allocation of existing state forests into protection and production forests, increased autonomy for forest management institutes, in-centives and rewards in promotion of private forestry development, and people’s participation and bene-fit sharing of local communities;

    The purpose of this think piece is to contribute to consensus building via environmental man-agement and socio-biological research and the much touted about Ethiopian renaissance. As such, it presents the definitions and theoretical underpinnings of sustainability and SD and brings forth the concepts of complexity and uncertainty in SL and ESH to undertake a comparative analysis with exist-ing policies that impact on SL and ESH concluding with points for discussion and the way forward. Within the Ethiopian state, such an agenda8 would obviously augur on defining the parameters of evolving the intelligent state and policy trajectories to achieve its aims. It is to redesign the architec-ture of the state, consensus building via socio-biological research, culture, renaissance, and cultural democracy with emphasis on gender equality; economic growth and impact of and participation in globalisation; nurturing democratic gains; peace, security, defence of interests and management of ethnic conflicts; and state, civil society and market relations.

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 2

    I: Policy analytical consideration in sustainable development and ecosystem conservation

    1. Policy analysis dimensions to sustainability: The link between sustainable livelihoods and eco-system conservation and health is to be found in the acknowledgement of the cultural diversity, which contains the knowledge necessary to maintain the nexus. Local knowledge is a reflection of the con-text-specific; hence, it is necessary to acknowledge the linkages between local knowledge and context-specific management of resources. By maintaining an array of cultural-embedded technical knowl-edge and the corresponding ecosystems, it becomes possible to sustain healthy and productive local resource management for the benefit of local livelihoods, possibly leasing to more sustainable man-agement practices at all levels. SL and ESH stakeholders are becoming increasingly aware of custom-ary management, customary rights, endogenous institutions, and the existence of different knowledge systems and community governance systems. There is also a growing recognition and understanding of the potential for linking to and supporting these in an effort to realise sustainable resource man-agement and development. In short, endogenous institutions and resource management systems rep-resent a latent resource; providing potential alternatives where modern approaches have not attained expectations or correctives for mainstreaming SL approaches.”9 On the other hand, a review of theo-ries of development has evolved useful tools over the past six decades;

    1.1. modernisation theories (1950’s, early 1960's) 1.2. dependency theories (late 1960's, early 1970's) 1.3. world economy view (late 1970’s, early 1980's), 1.4. basic needs approaches (late 1970's) and 1.5. the alternative modes of production that are directed at empowerment, human security, and

    human development reveal a trend towards sustainability and meeting the MDGs (current)

    Culminating in an increasing awareness of the necessity to reconcile the contradictions above in order to ensure sustainable management of natural resource, this awareness lies behind the current encouraging trend in which institutions at all levels are becoming willing to acknowledge the man-agement potential of endogenous institutions, and that it is necessary to base development efforts on local aspirations, and to use the local potential as a bridge between endogenous and formal institu-tions. Thus, an important challenge concerns the strengthening of civil society, a process requiring a broader approach and time perspective than is prevalent in approaches in currency today - the proc-ess of the retrieval of community history and adaptive strategies that lead to sustainable livelihoods (UNDP 1998, 2-3) within a robust and historically sedimented framework. The approach aims to re-store the salience of decision- making and provide an integrated framework for diverse goals.10

    2. Complexity, uncertainty, and triangulation in SD policy formulation: SD has been rou-tinely defined as the ability of present generations to use resources today n ways that keep open op-tions for the use in the next generation. This definition has not been however uncontested. For policy analyses purposes, SD and environmental policy analysis are complex and uncertain – hence the complexity and uncertainty theories. Uncertainty is lack of information, knowledge (what matters) and predictability of courses of events and complexity refers to systems components, differentiation and interdependence. Emery Roe11 compared

    2.1. Girardian economics, which claims “that SD is at best a social convention, which for a time un-derwrites and stabilises decision making under high uncertainty in a way that its subscribers be-lieve keeps options open for the future”;

    2.2. Culture Theory: “SD is necessarily defined differently by each culture”; 2.3. Critical Theory: “while opposed to standard economic growth prescriptions, SD is really artificial

    negativity that leaves untouched the issue of whether or not the New Class resource managerial-ism is appropriate at all” and

    2.4. Local Justice Framework: “at best, it is a justice/ injustice cycle that recurrently comes back to the notion that we should manage resources today in ways that leave open future options for their management”. 12

    The four schematics in Figure 1, as stand-alone approaches will have their limitations in analys-ing SD policies, strategies, processes, and structures.

    2.5. Triangulation provides a novel opportunity to approach our analysis of SD from comprehensive literature and database reviews; lengthy and detailed discussions on the conceptualisation of SD objectives, activities, effects, impacts, and underlying assumptions with knowledgeable person-alities, analysis, focus and syndicate group discussions with relevant stakeholders.13 SD is also defined as a combination of poverty eradication, empowerment, and participation, and SD.14

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 3

    However, the essence of the concept is not in its normative goals, but in a broader perspective, that gives rise to these goals. This is evident, form the way the two operative words are defined in literature: sustainability is premised on decision-making which reflects a balance among eco-nomic efficiency, ecological integrity and human well-being, while livelihoods are the assets, activities and entitlements by which people make a living15 and SL are derived from people’s ca-pacity to access options and resources in such a way that does not foreclose future options.16

    Fig.1. SD Approaches and Questions Compared Practically, what can actually be done about SD? (Roe, 1998)

    Giradian Economics Cultural Theory Critical Theory

    Local Jus-tice Frame-

    work

    - Buffer or decouple resource systems and their manage-ment from the more turbu-lent environments in which they are embedded.

    - Encourage the evolution and diffusion of more than one kind of SD.

    - Differentiate SD by treating it on a case-by-case basis.

    - Resist globalising behav-iour.

    - Last, but never least, nur-ture both inter-local differ-entiation and the role of economic growth and sover-eignty rights in that differ-entiation.

    - If you cannot think like a hermit, be biased in favour of your culture recog-nising that others are doing the same for theirs.

    - Focus your definition of SD in terms of where you stand on the usefulness of trial and error learning in development generally. Insist on the necessity of pluralism in politics; SD won't be real otherwise.

    - Be truth seeking whatever your culture or politics, and expect others to be the same: SD stands or falls on what is ac-tually happening.

    - Finally, be open to surprise and change: No SD can be or, for that mat-ter, should be once and for all or in one way only.

    - Protect existing commu-nities which seek control of their own territories.

    - Promote a loose federal arrangement predicated on heterogeneous com-munities, each with the right to secede from this confederation but having no right to usurp others.

    - Don't be deluded into thinking in terms of the Left or the Right, as they both operate according to New Class principles.

    - Give populism a chance.

    - Be pre-pared to accommo-date the reality that local justice systems are inevitable and, as such; they will invariably alter SD strategies on the ground.

    3. Policy management and the concept of sustainability: The phenomenon of sustainable devel-opment first aired at the 1972 Stockholm Conference on Environment and Development and then de-velopment by the report – Our Common Future – later projected to the global arena by UNCED, where world leaders demonstrated that no one group of nations could continue progressing while the majority of its people remained hungry and poor. Among the landmark documents adopted during the conference were the Rio Declaration, Agenda 21, and the Statement of Principles on Forests. Since then the dynamic and multifaceted concept of sustainable development has become one of the most significant global issues in terms of academic discourse and practical policy debate, arguing that its conceptual clarity and consensus remain a basic precondition for meaningful debate and effective pol-icy formulation. Despite series of discussions, analyses, and critiques in an enormous number of books, journals, and global conferences, there are still considerable disagreements over the idea of sustainable development. The author in his chapter on SD Policy Governance Nexus on the Hand book of Sustainable Development elaborates on the underlying premises of the sustainable develop-ment concept while underscoring its nexus with governance policy.

    Concretely, the author highlights how the global community has tried to build parallels between poverty and human destitution with the governance regimes that exist in poor nations, a governance programme based on pillars of support aimed at strengthening civil society and various coordinates of government and governing institutions. He further acknowledges the challenges of transitioning to a sustainable development path despite the current democratically favourable contemporary global conditions.

    “In probing the sustainable development–governance nexus, the author focuses his research on the evolving” political theory” of governance in which polity seeks mechanisms to convert politi-cal preferences to sustainable development administration; SD policy analysis, formulation, and management protocols making public policy accountable, transparent, and predictable to the local/global community; and establishment of the conceptual and functional nexus among sustainable development theory, policy, and tools and sustainable development administration in relation to assets and capital. In his final analysis, Costantinos notes that the comprehension of governance as a sustainable development tool is imprecise simply because the concept is still evolving”.

    Two intellectual traditions provide the theoretical framework within which the discussion is going on: Marxist perspective and a political interactive framework. The Marxist inspired discourse seeks to understand the configuration of social forces in the context of the always-impending social transfor-mation of society on the basis of the balance of such forces. The political interaction perspective on the other hand presumes that state-society relationship is central to understanding the political dy-namic of Africa. It is a synthesis of conventional analysis of African Politics, which attempts to decon-

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 4

    struct the contentions of previous sociological and anthropological analyses and re-interprets them within the problematic of state-society nexus.

    Characteristically it eschews a pre-determination of the locus of power in any of the public or pri-vate spheres. Otherwise, known as the political choice framework, it derives its theoretical leitmotif from the recognition of multiple factors at work on the African political scene and by tracing their di-verse dynamics over a period of time. The neo-liberal orthodoxy’s offshoots of this tradition have tended to treat civil society as if it were a replacement of class analysis. In order to un-pack some of the supererogatory aggregation of class categories, they have striven to expose a broader range of so-cial relationships, strategic options and behaviour patterns within and among classes and, by that to-ken, succeeded to mitigate the theoretical effect of structural determinism which usually accompanies class analysis. The later day insights we derive from the universal theory of sustainability are societal empowerment; global networking, and holistic thinking, an emerging approach that provides a better analogy for understanding society and its complex issues. Ultimately, addressing sustainable devel-opment issues implies thinking holistically, that is, looking at the big picture (the whole phenomenon of sustainability) while maintaining awareness of the interconnected dimensions of development.

    II: population, livelihood security, and ecosystem Health - Questions, Tools and Process

    1. Population Dynamics and Support Capacity: Population is term referring to the total human inhabitants of a specified area, such as a city, country, or continent, at a given time. Population study as a discipline is known as demography. It is concerned with the size, composition, and distribution of populations; their patterns of change over time through births, deaths, and migration; and the deter-minants and consequences of such changes. Population studies yield knowledge important for plan-ning, particularly by governments, in fields such as health, education, housing, social security, em-ployment, and environmental preservation. Such studies also provide information needed to formu-late government population policies, which seek to modify demographic trends in order to achieve economic and social objectives.

    The Ethiopian Population Supporting Capacity Assessment Study17 (PSC) shows that even using the "achievable optimum" model with all interventions, no improvement is observed in the support-ing capacity of districts that have already reached the critical class. Thus, the situation can only be saved through population redistribution. On the other hand, intervention will have significant impact on those districts that are under capacity, acceptable and marginal Population Supporting Capacity.18 The model depends on productivity and amount of potentially available and non-arable land "avail-able to meet the crop, fuel wood and livestock requirements of the population.” The analysis is done on a country-wide basis focusing on the districts level of administration. The Population Supporting Capacity of any districts depends on physical resources to meet the districts food requirement of 162.6 kg. of grain-equivalent per person per annum, feed requirement of 2280 kg of dry feed per head per annum and fuel wood requirement of 1.3 cubic metres per capita per annum. It was found out that most districts are not in a position to meet these requirements and critical situations have prevailed in most of them. The Population Supporting Capacity models involve seven different types of interven-tions over the period of time under consideration. The aggregate of the sub-models known as "achiev-able optimum", measures the combined effect of interventions.

    The population policy of Ethiopia describe the rationale for population programmes in this im-poverished nation, and prescribes organisational mechanisms in the government for implementation; containing (as strategies) a mixture of programme interventions, new laws, studies and recommenda-tions to line ministries and NGOs on the incorporation of gender and population issues into their pro-grammes and institutions. Programmes prescribed by the strategy are (broadly) promotion-related (IEC); service delivery-related, and method availability-related. On every level, the success of the country in meeting the objectives of the population policy (reduction of the total fertility rate with the attendant reduction in the population growth rate) is central to the success of a persistently subsis-tence economy. Nevertheless, this has yet to show the results that the policy has been focussed on. In-deed, demography is an interdisciplinary field involving mathematics and statistics, biology, medi-cine, sociology, economics, history, geography, and anthropology and the policy has to reviewed in this light.19

    2. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Established under the Kyoto Protocol, the UNFCCC is intended to finance climate change adaptation projects and programme in developing countries. UNFCCC recently underscored that climate change will adversely affect this sector and greatly reduce the gains made in recent poverty reduction programmes, particu-larly for the poor communities who depend entirely on agriculture. Reducing the vulnerability of those most at risk from the impacts of climate change will require substantial external financial re-

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 5

    sources. A UN report released ahead of the conference noted that Africa was the region most affected by global warming, but is the least prepared to tackle the causes of climate change. Rising sea levels could destroy an estimated 30 percent of Africa's coastal infrastructure, according to the report, which warned that coastal settlements in the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia and Egypt could be flooded. By 2080, global warming could lead to a 5 percent fall in the production of food crops several Africa countries the report said.

    3. Threats to ecosystem health in Ethiopia: Pollution In Akaki: Pollution (toxic compounds, organic pollutants, Xenobiotics, Eutrophication and Trace Elements in the Awash and Akaki Riv-ers) is a major threat, Akaki and the vicinity. This is mainly due to effluent from industrial and do-mestic sources. This calls for the formulation/implementation of intervention measures to alleviate the pollution. As the pollu-tion, type of pollutants dis-charged and their impacts are diverse, the involve-ment and collaboration of all interested and con-cerned stakeholders would make interventions more effective. A young scientist Robi Redda identified ar-eas along the Awash River Basin where the quality of water is a threat to the eco-system and human health. For this, the quality of wa-ter was assessed analysing a broad number of pollut-ants. This included toxic compounds mainly syn-thetic compounds that have adverse effects on human health and the environ-ment, organic pollutant that are substances that bring about a decrease in the level of oxygen in wa-ter, thereby resulting as-phyxiation of species and trace elements or metals known to cause a variety of health effects at elevated levels.

    Analysis of toxic compounds, organic pollutants, Xenobiotics, and Eutrophication shows differ-ent environmental samples, i.e. sediment; biota and water samples were analysed using bioassays. For this the Laboratory work was done at the Toxicology Department of the University of Wageningen in the Netherlands. The type of compounds analysed included: Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons which are known to be cancer causing, Dioxin like compounds also known to be cancer causing, pseudo-estrogens or compounds which mimic the female estrogen hormone and that ultimately bring about impotency in male species and Pesticides mainly cholinesterase inhibitors known to be lethal at higher doses. Now that people are moving to produce and live in these polluted areas it is important that polices address such a massive scale problem that is emerging.

    III: Achieving Sustainable Livelihoods -- Environmental and Population Action Plan

    1. Sustainable livelihoods: The prerequisite to achieving sustainable livelihoods is ownership. Get-ting this process started, however, may require finding champions and instituting rules and institu-tions that create champions. We must find an entry point and use the designed strategy to build from that point. We must create an enabling and empowering environment for people to participate. Two levels of process: Identify process we’re trying to change (target of opportunity) processes that are amenable to change and identify the “the target of opportunity “process to support change

    - How can we screen policies for their contribution to SL? What tools are available/ required? con-tinued practice, desk review, dialogue, comparative studies, policy inventory, policy gender sensi-tivity analysis

    Fig 2. Population Supporting Capacity by districts Base Model POPULATION SUPPORTING CAPACITY CLASSES

    Under capacity +50 to 100 %

    Acceptable +20 to +50

    %

    Marginal +20 to -20

    %

    Overcapac-ity -20 to -

    100 %

    Critical

    1 9 8 5

    Raya and Azebo Dollo, Wabe, Shire,

    Merhabete, Wag, Borena

    Metekel, Mendeyo

    Genale,

    Tembein, Menz Yifat

    Enderta, Axum, Lasta,

    Gambella

    Adowa, Agame, Raya & Kobbo,

    Borena, Wereilu

    Kilte Awlalo, Yeju, Kalu, Were Himeno,

    Wadla Delanta, Awssa, Dessie Zuria

    1 9 9 5

    Dollo Wabe, Mendeyo,

    Merhabete, Borena

    Tembein, Shire, Wag,

    Raya & Azebo,

    Tegulet, Metekel,

    Elkere, Assosa

    Menz, Yefat

    Elkere

    Enderta, Adowa, Axum,

    Raya & Kobbo,

    Borena, Lasta,

    Gambella

    Kilte Awlalo, Agame, Yeju, Ambassel,

    Dessie Zuria, Awssa, Kalu,

    W.Himenu, W. De-lanta, Wereilu,

    2 0 1 0

    Dolo, Wabe, Borena

    Mendayo

    Merhabete Tembein, Shire, Wag,

    Raya & Azebo,

    Metekel, Assosa

    Lasta, Borena,

    Menz, Yifat, Tegulet,

    Gambella, Elkere

    Enderta, Kilte Aw-lalo, Agame, Adowa,

    Axum, Raya & Kobo, Yeju, Kalu,

    Ambassel, Dessie Zuria, Were Himenu,

    Wadla Delanta, Tegulet, Wereilu,

    Awssa Source: Master Land Use Plan, Ethiopia, PSC Assessment FAO, 1988.

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 6

    - What policy shifts from existing scenarios are required at international, national and local levels to promote sustainable livelihoods? Our goal is sustainable livelihood, but we don’t have the govern-ance for SL. Therefore, we need to reform government, but first we need structures. What are the strategic entry points to re-form the struc-tures?

    - What governance arrangements and processes are re-quired to promote SL? Is it policy, programming, and budgeting system or manage, digest, and generate pol-icy. We have to help governments build such systems and break them away from their sectoral approaches. The desired governance system is inclusive, decentralised, consensual, non-coercive, responsible, ethical, judicious, credi-ble, accountable, and transparent.

    - Identify advocacy strategies to achieve the governance and policy shifts through information and communication, effective public service, political tolerance, crime, law and order, violence, trust, norms of conduct;

    - What constitutes effective SL policy at national, sub-national and international levels --National: credibility/predictable, fiscal prudence, macro policies, pro-poor policies, policies generated by the poor (policies that empower and benefit the poor) Local: Gender and power sensitivity, improve livelihood of the poor. Where is the effective interface...? It is context dependent.

    “Sustainability is premised on decision-making which reflects a balance among economic effi-ciency, ecological integrity, and human well-being (including equity considerations). Livelihoods are the means, activities and entitlements by which people make a living. Sustainable livelihoods are de-rived from people’s capacity to access options and resources. These are assets for making a living in such a way that does not foreclose options for others to make a living, either now or in the future. The approach “provides an integrated package of policy, technology and investment strategies together with appropriate decision-making tools which are used together to promote sustainable livelihoods by building on local adaptive strategy. SL constitutes a permanent change in the mix of productive activi-ties and requires modification of community rules and institutions to meet livelihood needs. These in-variably lead to livelihood systems that are concerned with people's capacities to generate and main-tain their means of living, and to enhance their well-being and that of future generations. These ca-pacities are contingent upon the availability, stability, and accessibility of options that are ecologi-cally, socio-culturally, economically, and politically sound. They are predicated on equity, ownership of resources, people’s participation, and wise decision-making -- notions of sustainable human devel-opment and SL that incorporate the idea of change and uncertainty.20

    The Sustainable Livelihoods approach is built on the premise that communities are the main ac-tors of change. It recognises that individuals and communities utilise a variety of short-term coping strategies and long-term adaptive strategies to secure a livelihood from several sources. It builds on people’s adaptive strategies and indigenous knowledge about their environment and their strategies to adapt to changing conditions. It recognises that government policies, strategies, institutional ar-rangements and plans affecting economic and social conditions, impact on livelihoods. It assumes that new and appropriate technologies drawing on contemporary knowledge in congruence with in-digenous knowledge are necessary to promote change. Policies that target community bankability are premised upon policies that promote asset-based community development help us identify some of the major challenges facing community builders, and to point at least toward the beginning of a walk down the path that would mobilise an entire community's assets around a vision and a plan. Such a

    Capital formation and accumulation TOOLS

    Human, spiritual, natural, physical capital, and social capital: political,

    organisational, cultural capital

    Multi-track communications, participa-tory assessment and planning, policy,

    institution and strategic analysis. Adaptive strategies

    RIGHTS/ASSET-BASED DEVELOPMENT APPROACH FOR BUILDING SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES

    Asset-based APIs Emergency help Human Development continuum

    Processual/ strategic elements Sustain benchmarks

    Preparedness, wise decision making, produc-tion, availability and access / control of liveli-

    hood resources, stability and sustainability

    Resilience, economic effi-ciency, social equitability, ecological sustainability

    Levels of application: individual, household, community, local

    Fig. 3 Strategic Framework in RBA sustainable livelihoods framework

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 7

    path would cover at least these five basic steps:21

    - Mapping completely the capacities and assets of individuals, CSOs and local institutions; - Building relationships among local assets for mutually beneficial problem-solving within the

    community; - Mobilising the community's assets fully for development and information sharing; - Building a community vision and plan and - Leveraging investments and resources from outside to support asset-based, locally-defined devel-

    opment.

    2. Mainstreaming population and environmental concerns: Mainstreaming is an essential ap-proach for expanding multi-sectoral actions to development constituting a range of practical strate-gies for scaling up activities within civil society. Through mainstreaming, the state can engage gov-ernment sectors, NGOs, private sector entities, church organisations, etc., that can both meet the needs of their own workplace environment, as well as apply their comparative advantage to support specific aspects of governance, gender, HIV/AIDS, and rights. Mainstreaming provides a mechanism through which multi-sectoral strategies can be analysed and acted upon, within clear areas of respon-sibility, building up multi-level yet coherent interventions at national and sub-national levels. Based on current experience and aimed at guiding mainstreaming at different levels, the following simple principles have emerged that attempt to provide a comprehensive framework to analyse where and when to introduce and implement mainstreaming.22

    2.1. Developing a clearly defined and focused entry point or theme, advocacy, sensitisation and ca-pacity building for mainstreaming in order to maintain the critical focus necessary to make an impact.

    2.2. National strategic frameworks should be used as the frame of reference and existing institutional structures; developing strategic partnerships based upon comparative advantage, cost effective-ness and collaboration.

    2.3. There is the need to maintain a distinction between two domains in mainstreaming: the internal domain (mainstreaming strategies within partners) and the external domain, where the state supports thematic and integrated programmes.23

    Fig.4 Processes in mainstreaming the rights-based approach and thematic issues

    2.4. More strategic work needs to be undertaken beyond advocacy on mainstreaming in all develop-

    ment programmes and social action. A thorough analysis of the implementation modalities of the action programme collaborates, especially governments. We suggest the use of more grassroots partners considering the urgency of dealing with the environmental threat; mainstreamed in all sectors and thematic programmes. The strategic framework (Fig. 3) is recommended for an integrated intervention in the response that can be adopted.

    3. The Rights-Based Approach to SL and ESH: The norms and principles that societies develop to ensure that economic empowerment needs are met for everyone, and the values that inform these principles, are the bedrock of the modern notion of human rights. What this means therefore is that development, which is about working with people to facilitate the meeting of these needs, necessarily

    Mainstreaming operational Plans

    Sustained Implementa-tion of Activities

    Managing strategic Information

    Local level decentralised management

    RBA Institutional Arrangements

    Rights-based enquiry and situation analysis – environment and population concerns

    Gender strategic analysis – and strategic plans

    Rights Strategic Framework – Gender, RBA, policy, goverance…

    RBA Evaluation

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    involves (or should involve) a discussion centred on how these norms (rights) enable the meeting of everyone’s needs, which in turn enables everyone to fulfil their potential. When one’s rights are vio-lated, their very dignity as human beings is violated, regardless of their sex, class, ethnicity, religion, ability, age, sexual preference, or race. The challenge is to move the discussion from the realm of tra-ditional advocacy that has a narrow legalistic approach for persuasive purposes, removed from the communities. It is rather to undertake a people-centred advocacy that focuses on the issues on the ground. The people know what infringes on their dignity, and working with them to have that re-dressed is the rights based approach. The value of this approach is in establishing their dignity as hu-man beings, the needs that must be met for them to realise their full potential.

    UN High Commissioner for Human Rights defined RBA as a conceptual framework for the proc-ess of human development that is normatively based on international human rights standards and operationally directed to promoting and protecting human rights... UN Secretary-General in 1998 de-fined RBA as situations not simply in terms of human needs, or developmental requirements, but in terms of society’s obligations to respond to the inalienable rights of individuals, empowers people to demand justice as a right, not as a charity, and gives communities a moral basis from which to claim international assistance when needed. At the conceptual level it brings to the development, discourse . . . a conceptual framework from which to begin assessment and analysis, keeping in mind that the overall aim is the realisation of rights for all people. We expand this definition to mean empowering people to take their own decisions, rather than being the passive objects of choices made on their be-half - Christian Aid affirms equal rights of all people 'made in the image of God'.

    Sida24 in 2002 augurs the definition of RBA as translating poor peoples’ needs into rights, and recognises individuals as active subjects and stakeholders. It further identifies the obligations of states that are required to take steps – for example through legislation, policies and programmes – whose purpose is to respect, promote, and fulfil the human rights of all people within their jurisdiction. CARE25 takes this further. RBA deliberately and explicitly focuses on people achieving the minimum conditions for living with dignity; by exposing the root causes of vulnerability and marginalisation and expanding the range of responses. It empowers people to exercise their rights and fulfil their re-sponsibilities. RBA recognises poor people as having inherent rights essential to livelihood security.26

    4. Ecosystem conservation and policy imperatives: The historical context provides the national historical and macro-policy environment in which livelihoods are defined. An IISD methodology and protocol paper identifies two major aggregate areas.

    4.1. “First we have the kind of ecosystem political, and socio-economic changes that have oc-curred in the country must be evaluated. Examples of indicators are agro ecological zones; cli-matic variables including rainfall patterns and major droughts; soils status; extent of desertifica-tion; vegetation types and cove, etc; the nature of enterprises; income sources and their distribu-tion; migration and other demographic factors; employment; human and animal health indica-tors; rights, including grazing, land- tenure, tree tenure and land-use.

    4.2. Secondly the macro-policy context: policies to be considered include macro-policy adjust-ments including structural adjustment programmes, trade and the role of the formal and formal sectors, i.e. the nature of government; the extent of centralisation and decentralisation of politi-cal authority (i.e. local self-government); system of procurement of goods and services including trade, financial flows to communities.

    4.3. In addition, various indicators can be used such as ecosystem, biomass, species and water avail-ability and access, indicators species, socio-economic: markets, infrastructure, credit, labour, in-cidence of animal disease, common property institutions; value, beliefs and practices. It should be recognised that values, beliefs, and practices are dynamic. In some instances beliefs may not be translated into practices and in others merely used for convenience or as possible indicators of sustainability: Net worth resilience, i.e. depletion and replenishment cycle in response to pertur-bation”.27

    IV: Issues, problems, and opportunities in the Ethiopian Environment and Forestry Sector

    It is indeed a pleasure and an honour to come here a give the key note address at the 30th anniversary of the Wondo Guenet College of Forestry that I helped to found in my years with Forestry and Wildlife Conservation and Development Authority (FAWCDA), a luckless organisation that has been changing names since the establishment of the Forestry Sector in Ethiopia. In a nation haunted by famines result-ing from environmental denudation, organisational imperatives of the forestry sector play an important equation. Hence, it is appropriate to speak on the institutional imperatives that have led to the demise of the environment sector in Ethiopia.

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 9

    1. Institutional set up: Indeed, the absence of appropriate institutional setup has been one of the ma-jor hindrances to the development the forestry sector in Ethiopia. The frequent reorganisation proc-esses in the MoA and the resulting lack of institutional stability have contributed much to the weak-ness of the forestry sector. For instance, the organisational structure of the forestry sector has been changed six times since the late 1970's.

    1.1. In 1977, the State Forest Development Agency (SFDA) and the Wildlife Organisation were amalgamated to form the Forestry and Wildlife Development Authority (FaWDA).

    1.2. After two years (in 1979) a further reorganisation occurred, and FaWDA was downscaled a de-partment (Forestry and Wildlife Conservation Department) under MoA.

    1.3. Again, in 1980, the Forestry and Wildlife Conservation and Development Authority (FaWCDA) was created and allowed to function only up to 1984 until it was again reorganised to be a department under MoA.

    1.4. In 1993, once again, organisational changes occurred and the FaWCDA was placed under the newly established Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection (MoNRDEP).

    1.5. Again, this did not last long; in 1995, the MoNRDEP was abolished, and FaWCDD was placed back under the MoA. With the new structure of MoA, FaWCDD is reorganised into a Team!!!

    Consequently, the lack of institutional stability has one of the major reasons for the relatively poor performance of the forestry sector. The frequent restructuring process of the sector has caused hard-ship to the employees and has contributed to the low morale of the professionals. This has also af-fected the progress of research, capacity building, and other development activities. The other con-straints related to institutional management are lack of professional staff, fragmented responsibilities in forest administration and research and lack of inter-sectoral cooperation.

    2. Forest Policy: Since the emergence of a forestry service in 1940, there has been no forest policy in Ethiopia. Instead, forestry proclamations have been serving as a policy basis for conservation, devel-opment, and utilisation of the country's forest resources. For instance, the Forest and Wildlife Con-servation and Development Proclamation No. 192 of 1980 have served, until 1993, as a policy basis to develop and manage forests. Recently, in 1988 a committee of professionals was assigned in order to revise and improve the country's forest laws and regulations, and there by prepare an appropriate for-est policy. A new policy document was drafted and submitted for government approval. Unfortu-nately, the document was not accepted.

    In 1991, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia created a favourable atmosphere to develop appropriate forest policy and legislation. The new government has clearly indi-cated the need to issue policies for the conservation and development of forest resources and prevent deforestation through the direct participation of the public. In the mean time, in October 1992 the ex-Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection (MoNRDEP) was created and made responsible for the forestry sector. The ex-MoNRDEP initiated the preparation of policy statement on natural resources development including forest and environmental protection. At the same time, the country's forestry proclamation was critically revised, and the draft proclamation was submitted for the approval of the government. The new forestry proclamation No. 94/1994 has come into force in March 1994, which recognises private ownership of trees and forests as well as two types of public ownership: state and regional forests.28

    3. Strategic issues: Prior to 1975, over 70% of Ethiopia's natural forest was owned by few individuals that practised tree planting. Eucalyptus plantations established around Addis Ababa by individuals were estimated to be 5000 hectares. There were also some initiatives to establish farm woodlot. In 1975, the proclamation of the public ownership of rural land became effective. Consequently, all rural lands became the collective property of the Ethiopian people. Hence, private ownership of forests was abolished, and the State Forest Development Agency was given the responsibility to administer all natural forests covering more than 80 hectares, while the Peasant Associations (PAs) became respon-sible for forests with smaller sizes.

    Individual tree planting was hampered due to government expropriation of private plantation, lack of tree tenure rights and government regulation on utilisation of private trees. Nationalisation of land and forest has further led to the outburst of wanton destruction of forests. Particularly, in the first two years after the change of power, much forest destruction has taken place. As noted earlier, the state forestry programme that has been launched by the past regime was not successful. In addi-tion to the factors noted above, there were various reasons for its failure. In general, the development and conservation activities have no clear management objective. They are carried out on vast areas to which the State Forest Agency has no clear legal title. In other words, the programme has been con-

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    ducted on forest areas or lands that are not well demarcated and gazetted. In addition to administra-tive overlap, the forestry sector has been constrained by poor institutional set-up.

    Similarly, the efforts to promote community forestry have not been successful in spite of large amounts of resources allocated for the programme. There have been no clear guidelines from the be-ginning as to how the management and utilisation of community plantation should be carried out. Important issues such as the ownership of plantations, management objectives, and provisions for benefit sharing were not made clear. Further, the execution of the programme at grass - roots level was poor. The programme has been implemented in such a way that the extension agents, in coopera-tion with the PA leaders, discuss and outline the work plan for the activities to be undertaken. Mobili-sation of the community to carry out the task has been made by the PA leaders in co-operation with the field staff. Hence, as noted by CFSCDD 1989, the core problem of the programme was the relative neglect of the opinions of the individual community members and reliance on the so-called “mass agi-tation" without achieving rapport with the leaders and convincing the individual members. Apart from this, the execution of the programme in close association and parallel with the unpopular poli-tics and collectivist schemes of the government and the appropriation of grazing land for plantation establishment, were also some of the factors that have contributed to the failure of programme.

    4. Forestry in Sustainable Agriculture: Given the gravity of the problems Ethiopia faces, it is not an easy task to bring about the required attitudinal changes, which could lead towards a sustainable development. However, it is not an issue, which could be skipped or side-stepped, while the very sur-vival of the people is in question.

    4.1. In this context, the resolution of the following issues will help set the tone for the programme 4.1.1. In order to procure more food, exploitive and inefficient cultivation techniques are em-

    ployed in all areas, which have accelerated problems of soil erosion. As a result tradition-ally grazing areas (steep slopes and valley bottoms, are encroached by cultivation. Local communities and especially refugees use land but do not have ultimate right to a particu-lar piece of land. This has resulted in lack of motivation to carry out and maintain conser-vation works on croplands. There is a need for a proper land use policy to be put in place. The lowland pastoral systems, which were known to be economically efficient and envi-ronmentally sound, are showing increasing signs of instability and non- sustainability. The introduction of irrigated agriculture to the rangelands has contributed to the prevail-ing problems.

    4.1.2. The factors influencing soil erosion and land degradation are multiple and naturally rein-forcing. The massive removal of vegetation cover is the driving force behind land degra-dation. The loss of vegetation cover is due to an expanding population with its increasing demand for crops, grazing land, and fuel wood. Wood is the main source of energy fol-lowed by cow dung and crop residues in the disaster prone areas of the north. Forestry has a major role to play in any programme that seeks to address fuel energy crises in the disaster prone areas.

    4.1.3. Farm forestry provides vegetative cover to soil also conserves biodiversity; it provides fuel wood thus reducing the need of cow dung and crop residues for use as fuel; helps to con-serve soil and water; it enriches the soil by nutrient recycling and provides fodder for do-mestic animals. The wildlife of the Regions is rich in variety; however, the cultural prac-tices and the distribution of the human population in the disaster prone highlands are not conducive to wildlife conservation there. The establishment of national parks on commu-nal lands has become a source of conflict between local people and government institu-tions.

    4.1.4. There is a need for appropriate land use policy, which promotes the appropriate man-agement of natural resources including wildlife by integrating it with other land use sys-tems. Local communities need be allowed to participate fully in wildlife management pro-grammes and ways and means of poverty alleviation in local communities should be part of the management programme.

    4.2. Biodiversity, Biotechnology, and Scenic Resources 4.2.1. The reduction in biodiversity is closely linked with the clearing of forests and bushes for

    crop cultivation. There is a need to conserve genetic diversity within food crops and then wild relatives `In Situ' conservation is the preferred method since it allows for continuing farmer selection, interaction with the environment, and gene exchange with wild species.

    4.2.2. The need to formulate specific policies on genetic resources is reflected by the limitations of current legislations since biodiversity is protected only in `protected' areas. There is

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 11

    also a need to introduce legislation that could guarantee farmers 'rights over local genetic resources as an incentive to conservation.

    4.3. Awareness Creation 4.3.1. Education efforts focusing on enhancing awareness in conservation issues can lead to bet-

    ter appreciation of the environment and subsequently in inducing changes in behaviour in favour of conservation. Given the opportunity to participate, rural local communities can identify rural ecological problems and suggest solutions to the same, based on local knowledge.

    4.3.2. The major policy issue here is the role and degree of popular participation in all pro-grammes aimed at sustainable management of natural resources. The main issue to be addressed in this programme is scarcity of wood for fuel. The most important source of final energy consumption is traditional biomass fuels, including wood, dung, crop resi-dues, and charcoal in all the disaster prone regions. The energy consumption in rural households is estimated to be 1.19m3 of wood per annum and biomass fuels account for the entire consumption in rural households. Wood is the main source of energy followed by cow-dung and crop residues in most parts of Ethiopia. The part played by dung is much reduced in SNNPR as wood fuel is providing nearly all the energy requirements for cooking. With the high population growth driving the rising energy demand, and with sustainable wood fuel production falling, all the highlands under consideration are ex-periencing a widening wood fuel deficit. This has severe consequences on the productivity of croplands as a whole.

    4.3.3. The productivity of farmland can be sustained if good agricultural practices are put in place. One tested good agricultural practice is farm forestry, including agroforestry, where trees are grown in the farm, or at the boundaries and vicinities of the farm. In or-der to manage sustainable agriculture through conservation, afforestation programmes need be encouraged and implemented in order to abate the fuelwood crises.

    4.4. Problems and Opportunities: There are a number of factors, which act as constraints in the establishment and propagation of farm forestry practices. The most important are:

    4.4.1. Population growth, Agricultural Productivity and Land Availability: Rapid population growth and declining agricultural productivity exerts a lot of pressure on available arable land. As a result, marginal areas are increasingly cultivated for crops, and land for other uses is diminishing. Farm forestry technologies, which could reduce the prevailing competition for land, are not available to most rural local communities.

    4.4.2. Population Dynamics and Support Capacity: Population is term referring to the to-tal human inhabitants of a specified area, such as a city, country, or continent, at a given time. Population study as a discipline is known as demography. It is concerned with the size, composition, and distribution of populations; their patterns of change over time through births, deaths, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of such changes. Population studies yield knowledge important for planning, particularly by gov-ernments, in fields such as health, education, housing, social security, employment, and environmental preservation. Such studies also provide information needed to formulate government population policies, which seek to modify demographic trends in order to achieve economic and social objectives. The Ethiopian Population Supporting Capacity Assessment Study29 (PSC) shows that even using the "achievable optimum" model with all interventions, no improvement is observed in the supporting capacity of districts that have already reached the critical class. Thus, the situation can only be saved through population redistribution. On the other hand, intervention will have significant impact on those districts that are under capacity, acceptable and marginal Population Supporting Capacity.30 The model depends on productivity and amount of potentially available and non-arable land "available to meet the crop, fuel wood and livestock requirements of the population.”31

    4.4.3. Land and Tree Tenure: Since trees take years before the benefits from them are real-ised, the decision to plant trees is greatly influenced by communal people's perception of risk. Over the last 20 years, land and tree tenure policies have made tree growing unat-tractive to individual farmers. Frequent redistribution of land has added to the farmer’s perception of the high risks of future dispossession. This was further aggravated by the villagisation programmes. Regulation regarding the use of tree grown on farms also added to the uncertainty of tree tenure.

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    4.4.4. Open farms and livestock pressure: In the cereal and agro-pastoral zones, few farms are fenced and domestic animals roam freely and feed on crop residues after har-vest, in the processing, trampling, and uprooting tree seedlings. Further development of farm forestry is interlinked with animal husbandry practices.

    4.4.5. Farmers Priorities, Resources, and Incentives: Subsistence agriculture is based on avoiding or minimising risks. Farm forestry may be conceived risky because of the possible reduction in crop years as a result of tree shades, root competition for limited moisture, reduction in cropping area, and increased crop damage from birds roosting in the trees. Therefore appropriate incentive schemes must be put in place in order to facili-tate the spread of farm forestry practices. The opportunities include possibilities of estab-lishing of woodlots and especially farm forestry.

    4.4.6. Farm forestry is seen in light of soil and water conservation for sustainable agriculture. Farm forestry provides vegetation cover to soil also conserves bio- diversity; it provides fuel wood thus reducing the need of cow dung and crop residues for use as fuel; helps to conserve soil and water by facilitating water percolation and reducing run off; it enriches the soil by nutrient recycling, especially if nitrogen fixing plants are used on the farm; it provides protection from wind driven soil erosion and also provides fodder for domestic animals. Benefits include provision of shade to crops and livestock, lumber for construc-tion and may also serve as fences or boundary markers. In the conservation of soil on the farm, agroforestry plays an important role, while individual or communal plantation and natural forest cover provide protection to soil off-farm areas. Experience has shown that integrated crop-livestock-tree system, using multipurpose species, could sustainably sup-port several times more people per hectare than the average of any region in Ethiopia. The acacia drops its leaves during the rainy season, adding nitrogen and organic matter to the soil; in the dry season, it produces pods good for fodder and leaves that offer shade to livestock whose slug, in turn, enhance soil fertility. Agroforestry systems have undoubted potential in sustainable agriculture, especially for poor farmers who can not afford to use fertilisers and other external inputs. The existing transitional systems in the respective lo-calities need be enhanced and diffused. There is also an enormous scope for developing new and improved forms of agroforestry, using new species combinations, better genetic stock, and a range of new techniques.

    4.4.7. Biodiversity Conservation: The protection of biodiversity as stated in the United Na-tions Convention of Biodiversity (1992) has to be considered a basic requirement of sus-tainability - passing on to future generations a world of unlimited options - and a funda-mental overall responsibility as travellers on the only planet to support life. Biodiversity is commonly analysed at three levels, the variety of communities and ecosystems within which organisms live and evolve, the variety of species themselves, and the genetic variety within those species. Some analysts believe that the greatest threat to human welfare comes from the loss of genetic diversity within species, most notably food crops and their wild relatives. Farmers have used and created genetic diversity for millennia to increase agricultural production; genetic engineering and other high tech forms of crop breeding are equally dependent on it. Generations of farmers have developed a remarkable array of crops, especially in developing nations.

    5. The State Of Forestry in Ethiopia Ethiopia has lost most of its high forests in the past few decades. At present less than 3 million hec-tares of forest has remained from the vast natural forests, which covered the country once.32 The natural forests of Ethiopia, which covered about 40% of the land area, just before the turn of this cen-tury, have now been reduced to about 2.7%. Most of the remaining forests are located in south and southwest parts of the country, while the northern and central highlands are completely deforested.33 As a result, development efforts were started with the establishment of forestry institutions, which were made responsible for managing the country's forest resources. Apparently, several state- run and community- based forestry programmes have been developed and implemented. Apart from the na-tional effort, a substantial amount of technical and financial assistance has been channelled to the forestry sector from the international donor communities. Despite all the efforts made, the process of deforestation has continued at an alarming rate. Natural forests and plantation- are subjected to ille-gal felling and encroachment in many parts of the country. Yet, the rate of development of man- made plantations do not keep pace with the increasing demand of forest products, and account for a very small percent of the rate at which natural forests disappear. In general, the current trend shows a de-cline in forest resources and an increase in degradation.

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    5.1. State Forest: Regular programme of State Forestry was started in the mid-1940's, with the creation of forestry division in the MoA. The main task of the division was only to issue exploitation licenses, to collect of royalties and to inspect that license holders planted 25 seedlings for every tree they cut. Much later at the beginning of 1970's a strategy was designed to introduce forest management practices that will develop and conserve the existing natural forests. Apparently, 13 state forest areas named "Pilot Projects" were identified with the objective of promoting improved management practices. This included forest inventories, improved road building, logging techniques, and introduction of silvicultural operations and systems. Later, the concept of pilot projects was changed to National Forest Priority Areas (NFPA's). In 1988, more other potential natural forest areas were selected and the number of NFPAs was raised to 58. The total area of the NFPAs including disturbed and undisturbed forests as well as plantations and open lands is estimated to be 3.5 million hectares out of which 2.8 million hectares (58%) are of natural forest, 85,000 hectares (1.8%) plantation forests and the remaining 1.9 million hectares (40%) are open or agricultural lands.34

    5.2. Community Forestry: The community forestry programme presented here refereed to all tree planting and plantation management that has been undertaken from 1980 to the recent years by rural institutions such as PAs, Producers Co-operatives (PC's), service co-operatives or groups of farmers. The major objectives of the programme were to assist the community to establish woodlot and meet their requirement of fuelwood and construction material, and to rehabilitate or reclaim degraded catchment areas, particularly hillsides. The form of planting includes community woodlot, agro-forestry, windbreaks, and shelter belts and roadside plantations. The programme consisted of three major activities: nursery activities, community woodlot and hillside plantations. Most of these activities have been undertaken with the assistance of WFP, especially in the food deficit areas of the country. Available records show that up to 1991, a total of about 240,000 hectares of denuded hillsides have been reforested, while 20,000 ha of community woodlot were established and managed by a few PAs. Nevertheless, efforts to promote community forestry had not been successful. Farmers' lack of enthusiasm for communal tree planting as a result of the state imposition for communal undertakings, exclusion of farming communities from decision-making, expropriation of grazing land for community plantation and blockage of access to benefits were the main reasons for the failure of community forestry programmes. With the change of government policy in 1990, many members of PAs or PC's showed their resentment against community forestry activities. Further, the political turmoil and the change of government that took place in 1991 created a gap and contributed much for illegal cutting of hillside plantations. At the end of 1991, the government decided to hand over the community plantations to the PAs. However, farmers had already started felling these plantations. Consequently, most of the community plantations established during the 1980's have largely been destroyed by rural communities.35

    5.3. National Programmes 5.3.1. Ethiopian Forestry Action Programme (EFAP): EFAP is a government initiative

    aimed at conserving, developing, and sustainably managing the country’s forest resources. The preparation of EFAP, within the general framework of the Tropical Forestry Action Programme (TFAP), was initiated in the late 1980's. The preparation and planning stages was completed in May 1994, with the presentation of the EFAP main report to the Donor Conference. The EFAP describes policies and institutional changes. It has identified 46 specific project proposals, which are aimed at increasing sustainable tree and forest production, increasing agricultural production through reduced land degradation, conserving forest ecosystems genetic and wildlife resources and improving the welfare of rural communities, particularly women. It has also drawn up the necessary investment programme to translate the proposed strategies and the action programmes into reality.36

    5.3.2. National Conservation Strategy: To mitigate/reverse the pace of environmental degradation and establish a viable natural resource use and management, the country has prepared the National Conservation Strategy (NCS) under whose umbrella is the EFAP. The overall purpose of the NCS is to ensure the progress of the country towards sustainable development in order to provide a better standard of living for all Ethiopians without prejudicing the welfare of future generations. Under the auspices of an inter-ministerial committee for environment and natural resources development and with genuine grassroots participation, the NCS process has made an assessment of the status, use and the current management of the natural resource base. Further, it has presented a set of policies and strategies addressing salient problems, an action plan and investment programmes. The product of NCS is an "Umbrella" framework for action, which will assist and guide

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 14

    government institutions at the central, regional, and local levels in designing and implementing further programmes for sustainable management of resources.

    5.4. Climate change: These days, Addis Ababans and especially those returning from the Diaspora are increasingly worried at the ‘smogdd’ (a combination of smoke, fog, dirt and dust from new construction sites) that that hangs over Addis. It is a threat to the health of the unborn, the young, and the old all the same. The health costs or even human costs where the health costs do not matter are indeed staggering in the long term. Simply said Addis Ababa has failed to limit emissions from factories, diesel cars (what happened to good old catalytic converters) and trucks and the trucks carrying soil from construction sites and waste dumps are irresponsibly sowing the seeds of next generation epidemics. On the world scale, global warming, accelerated by increases in the levels of greenhouse gases increasing in the atmosphere due to human activities, is changing the composition of the atmosphere. It is indeed the most important environmental challenge in the world today. Some of the adverse effects of global warming, predicted by scientists and politicians (AL Gore’s Inconvenient Truth) begin to occur throughout the world, including: growing incidence of droughts, floods; rising temperatures of oceans and sea levels; increase extreme weather events such as tornadoes and hurricanes; the melting of mountain glaciers and the reduction of snow cover; dying coral reefs, and coastal erosion, and loss of coastal ecosystems.

    6. Conclusion: The major constraints to the forestry sector in particular and the live natural resources in general are: absence of a clearly defined forest policy, lack of strong and stable institution responsible for the forestry sector, lack of the past government's recognition of the seriousness of the situation and lack of a participatory approach in the implementation of social forestry programmes. Unless the above listed constraints are solved, there will be little hope for the forestry sector to bring about a significant and positive impact on the development and conservation of the country's forest resources. The suggested solutions and strategies to overcome these are as follows:

    6.1. Formulations of appropriate and clear environmental and forest policies are a prerequisite for successful forestry development in Ethiopia. Key areas that require clear policy statement include: the allocation of existing state forests (NFPA's) into protection and production forests, increased autonomy for forest management institutes, incentives and rewards in promotion of private forestry development, and people’s participation and benefit sharing of local communities. As noted by EFAP 1994, about 60 percent or 1.2 million hectares of the existing natural forests should be set aside for full protection: so as to ensure environmental stability and maintenance of ecological balance. The protection area would include two categories: first, slopes steeper than 35 - 40 percent to control erosion and land degradation, second, areas to preserve the natural flora and fauna, which would represent biological diversity and genetic resources of the country. Furthermore, forests or forestlands on the upper catchments areas of the country's major rivers should be brought under full protection. All protected areas should be gazetted immediately. The remaining natural forests should be developed for commercial wood production under a sustainable management system that conserves natural regeneration and enrichment planting with indigenous species.

    6.2. In addition to the proposal of EFAP, it is also worth suggesting that some protected areas from the relatively much degraded northern parts of the country be identified and set aside. Accordingly, FWCDD has identified an additional area of about 1.94 million hectares to be rehabilitated and protected. With this, the total area of protected forests and forestland will be approximately 3.14 million hectares. The existing institutions and the institutional set-up are completely inadequate to undertake the above-mentioned tasks and need to be strengthened at all levels. Thus, as proposed by EFAP, 1994, there is an urgent need to assess the present organisational structure and thereby establish an entirely autonomous organisation both at national and regional levels, which will be fully responsible for forestry or living natural resources.

    6.3. The active participation of local communities is quite important in order to develop those forest areas that will be set aside for protection and production. Therefore, in addition to some mechanism of benefit sharing the detail of which should be worked out in future, a 50 - 100 meter wide buffer zone around the boundary of each NFPA should be allocated for community tree planting. Farmers

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 15

    who are participating in buffer zone plantation activities would be given the responsibility to protect the national forest areas adjacent to their plantation areas from illegal felling. Based on preference of individual farmers, the establishment and management of plantation in the said buffer zones could be carried out on individual or community basis. Nurseries have to raise seedlings and distribute to communities with an agreement that, after harvesting, the community will pay back the cost of seedlings.

    6.4. The present demand for wood products (saw logs, ply logs and transmission poles) is estimated to be around 403,000 m3 and, by the year 2014 the demand will increase to 1.6 million m3 (EFAP, 1994). This shows that the country has to allocate an extensive area of land for plantation development in order to be self-sufficient in sawn wood production, and at the same time release the pressure on natural forests; therefore, as noted by the same report, 150,000 hectares of the location of the proposed production and protection, forests have been reserved. Farmer’s organisations that participate in new plantations have to be established within the coming twenty years. Further, during the next decades, fuelwood will remain a major energy source for the population of Ethiopia. Hence, the expansion of fuelwood plantations has to constitute the key issue in the country's future forestry programme. SFCDD, 1990, has indicated that a total of 5.2 million hectares of plantation has to be established in order to meet the projected demand of fuelwood by the year 2000. However, owing to the prevailing problem of land shortage that will undoubtedly increase with increasing population. The above-mentioned tasks of plantation development are far beyond the capacity of the government. It is, therefore, essential to encourage and involve private sectors in both fuelwood and industrial plantation development. The Government has to establish a possible incentive mechanism by which private individuals are encouraged to plant trees. In particular, those farmers who may convert their farmland partially or fully to forest plantations should be able to receive loans and grants.

    IV: The Leadership Challenge in Policy Management

    Notwithstanding the constitutional provisions of self-government, there need to be a serious calling for the revaluation, and, as a result, reconfiguration of the regional government set-up in terms of effi-ciency, effectiveness and results. The intra and inter-state relations could also evolve with the aim of de-veloping communities of practice, exchanging best practices, skills, including the free movement of capital and labour through clear-cut and proactive policies and procedures, which are favourable to private sector development, via access to credit, land, and labour facilities. This must be coupled with a complete streamlining of governance regimes based on merit and leadership competence of the office-bearers. The author has been on record, “Ethiopians will legitimately expect their leaders to develop the capacity to effect change; however constrained they may be by political doctrine, ideological leanings and agencies that inform the political parties they derive their power from. They are expected to develop the capacity, through their statements and actions, to shape debate, dialogue, and morality, to determine what is so-cially acceptable, culturally sound, and politically uplifting. Indeed, leadership is a calling. Political lead-ership requires intimate knowledge of public policy analysis, formulation, and management and devel-opment of strategic plans and implementing them.

    Complexity and uncertainty theories notwithstanding, the actionable approach to SD can be described at three levels: a set of normative goals, SL and empowerment processes; and as an integrative concept which aims simultaneously to maintain or enhance resource productivity, secure their ownership of and access to assets, resources and income earning activities, and ensure adequate resources to meet basic needs. (Banuri, Holmberg, 1992). Complexity and uncertainty theories notwithstanding, the actionable approach to SD can be described at three levels: a set of normative goals, SL and empowerment processes; and as an integrative concept which aims simultaneously to maintain or enhance resource productivity, secure their ownership of and access to assets, resources and income earning activities, and ensure ade-quate stocks and flows of resources to meet basic needs.37

    Achieving sustainable livelihoods must include concerns for human security, health, food security, family, youth, and gender and limiting violence against women and children. These goals have been well articulated in the MDGs to which Ethiopia is party. It is indeed to develop a critical mass of human quali-ties and ensure its effective participation in the development process in order to provide, consolidate, ex-pand and sustain the required base for competitive and cooperative development within a rapidly shrink-ing and bloodthirsty global environment. Very few articulate questions related to poverty reduction in terms of scholarly approaches. Instead, many jump at finding a silver bullet answer (such as debt cancel-lation, information technology, more aid and trade…) to the complex nature of poverty. Poverty is a com-plex phenomenon of a web of factors leading to destitution and marginalisation that requires an intergen-erational and interdisciplinary strategic framework to remedy the complex web of factors of impoverish-ment; which include inter alia food security: implement programmes as integrated packages of policy,

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 16

    technology and investment strategies together with appropriate decision-making tools and revolutionise the agricultural sector to promote large-scale food production that can put to use Ethiopia’s virgin soils (to the tune of 60 million ha according to EPA); a population action plan must be designed immediately and a land use policy, a strategic land use plan, and the related need for a legal framework for establish-ing rights of access, use, transfer, alienation, and compensation must be recognised. Land use and land tenure have important linkages to livelihood security, natural resource conservation, the need for which has been well documented; promote small and intermediate-scale entrepreneurship as a vehicle of future growth and higher levels of value-added and economic diversification, and improve the qual-ity education and health: learning throughout life and education for critical consciousness has become apparent as the keys to the 21st Century. The mission of guaranteeing quality of education is to safeguard the public interest in sound standards and to encourage its continuous improvement so that school-leavers can deliver what society expects from them. Closely related to this is the havoc that is wrought by diseases of which HIV/AIDS stands as a true test of the performance of our institutions. There has been so much lost ground, there is little to show in curbing the suffering of the affected and infected and there re-mains so much to do that it may even be too ghastly to contemplate a mission of such extensive compass.

    Many of the critically important development issues, which approach SL and Ecosystem Health, were designed to account for have been reviewed in this paper. While it is important to recognise that all these issues are connected in various systemic ways, developing countries should be wary of ever-new strate-gies, theories, and approaches emerging from developing country academic centres. At the very least, we should critically adapt them to our own realities as needed, and not use them if they prove not to be help-ful. This is especially important in our country when the policy imperatives involve trying to change atti-tudes and behaviour of a national psyche that has rendered the nation eternally dependent on interna-

    tional charity.

    Thus, we are on the one hand responsible for breaking the boundaries of in-ward bound wis-dom, of "common sense", of patterns of thinking and behaving, which, over the years, have built them-selves into rou-tines, which pacify people to dor-mancy. We main-tain continuity whilst simultane-ously promoting change; such is the nature of leader-ship -- ambiguity and contradiction -- that comes as part of the same deal. The allusion of the foregoing is that leaders are responsible for change manage-

    ment, and change in a transition implies some degree of anarchy. The nexus between the status quo ante and the new, between letting go of the status quo ante and adopting the new order, is most often where rules are bent, and habit and routine are replaced with periods of chaos - which are indeed pieces of good opportunities for change, although, if prolonged, can become perilous to the nation. What ever we the leaders choose to be, they must have the zeal, commitment, diligence, greatness of spirit, consistency and strength to transform transitional chaos into development opportunities that history will judge them for.

  • Climate change, forestry, and sustainable development: emerging challenges. BTC 2009. Page 17

    Annex One Guides for developing a joint population and environmental plan of action

    1. Ownership and leadership over policies and strategies and coordinate actions Strategic Objective

    Outcome Indicators Verification

    Means Sources Actors

    - Eradication of poverty and maxi-mising benefits of economic growth

    - National priorities are broadened representative of poor women and men

    - Donors commit to help strengthen partner country capacity to include both women and men and men

    - Donors commit-ted to Capacity building

    - Exercise eff


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