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ISMOR 2005

OA for Effects-Based Operations in the Maritime Domain

Maritime Warfare Centre, UK

Dr Martin Fowler, Chief Scientist, MWC

023 9221 2169

email: martin.fowler@portsdown.mwc.gov.uk

Mr Mike Dobson, EBA analyst, MWC

023 9221 2050

email: mdobson@dstl.gov.uk

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Structure

1. Introduction to MWC

2. OA for EBO in maritime domain

3. Issues “warts and all”

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Terminology

In international use, EBO is commonly favoured term

Recently UK Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre (JDCC) renamed EBO as Effects-Based Approach to Operations (EBA2O) EBO to refer to this overall subject

EBA for this branch of OA

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Part 1Introduction

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MWC Location

Portsmouth, UK

Two sites: Southwick - doctrine, training

Portsdown - OA, tactical development

Due to move and co-locate to Portsmouth naval base / Fareham / ? in 20052005 ... 20062006 ... 2007 …?

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Maritime Warfare Centre

MWC Mission is to:

Enhance and Evolve the Maritime Contribution to Operations

A ‘one-stop shop’ for the evolution and dissemination of maritime/joint doctrine and concepts through teaching, tactical development, operational analysis, concept development and wargaming.

Provides the focus for the development and practice of operational level warfighting, planning and decision-making

Provides reactive analytical and scientific support to the Front Line

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIEDCampaign level OA at MWC Responsible for provision of decision-making support and

tactical guidance to Maritime Component Commander (MCC)

Development of OA to support maritime contribution to EBA: Integrate OA into maritime campaign planning and assessment

including identification of:

Role of the analyst

Requirements for methodologies, MoEs and analytical tools

Balance of OA and military judgement required in campaign assessment

Information requirement to support OA in campaign assessment

Longer term:

Development of planning and decision aids

Establishment and development of knowledge bases

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Part 2OA for Maritime EBO

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Strategic EffectsFull

Insight

Resilience

Reassurance

Transformation

Prevention

Deterrence

Coercion

Disruption

Defeat

Destruction

Stabilisation

Principal effects in maritime domain

Reassurance

Prevention

Deterrence

Coercion

Disruption

Defeat

Destruction

Stabilisation

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ReassuranceReassurance

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIEDPrevention

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UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED DisruptionFrigate intercepts ‘go-fast’ smuggler

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Nice pictures but …. These illustrate capabilities created by equipment and

personnel who may carry out actions that may produce results that may achieve Effects

A capability does not ‘deliver Effect’

Will Effects produced be: Intended or Unintended?

Expected or Unexpected?

Desired or Undesired?

How will we analyse Effects? Objective: progress from high-level EBA concept to

practical application of EBA in maritime domain *

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Background Much on EBA principles at strategic level

Little on EBA at operational and tactical levels, especially in maritime domain

Most OA concepts focus on strategic level

Most OA methodologies derive from air domain Focus on ‘hard’ effects

Counting bomb craters is not EBA

Much of efficacy of naval forces is based on ‘soft’ effects

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EBA Tasking for OA

Operational and tactical levels in the maritime domain Practical assessment of effects

Planning and analysis incl. MoEs Development of knowledge bases, planning & decision aids

Consistent with EBA principles, tools and techniques elsewhere Joint Allied / coalition Combined (OGDs)

Impact and inter-relationship of NEC and ISR

Provide EBA planning and analysis capability to MCC“Are we winning / did we win / could we have done it better?”

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EBA OA Work Programme

Two options: Exercise EBA at sea (akin to Experimentation)

With MCC (UK Maritime Battle Staff) identify suitable exercise opportunities

Exercise NORDIC SHIELD

Table Top Tactics / Wargaming Suitable scenarios Work through planning procedures and OA methodology

Objective: develop planning and assessment procedures for MCC to use EBA in maritime domain

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What / Where / When / Who / Why What

Exercise / operation at the campaign level led by MCC

Small scale

Where Afloat or ashore?

When iaw RN / allied exercise programme

Who Team size - shortage of space

Resources - other tasking

Why Deeds not just words

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How? Exercise Plan (1)

Using existing MCC planning procedures: Determine desired Effects, intended results, likely

actions, required capabilities Identify suitable:

Measures of Success (MoS) Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) Measures of Performance (MoP)

Identify information collection requirements (amount, timescale) to support OA to produce MoS, MoE, MoP

Include EBA assessment in exercise planning

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How? Exercise Plan (2) Assess

Availability of information How long to analyse information - will it meet timescale of

battle rhythm? How much will MoEs contribute to commander’s decision

making? Is procedure feasible, practical and robust?

Exercise it Provide analysis reports

Quicklook < 1 week after ENDEX Full < 6 weeks after ENDEX

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Part 3Issues

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Issues (1)

Great concept, shame about the detail ...

Need for extra resources Words are cheap, custom tools and databases are expensive

Huge information requirement & data collection task for OA

Moving goalposts Concept keeps developing / changing

Need to press for inclusion of OA requirement in planning and assessment

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Issues (2) Reluctance of some military to get involved

Lip service paid to EBA in long term planning

Preference for military judgement over OA Popularity of naval / military history

Lack of appreciation of complexity of analysis problem

“Don’t bother me with trivia”

Low priority given to inclusion of OA staff in exercises

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Current work in OA community? (1) Forthcoming EBA assessment in exercise

Is anybody actually analysing maritime EBA at operational campaign level right now? Planning

Data gathering

Tools & techniques

Analysis

MoEs

Results

Inform command decision making process

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Current work in OA community? (2) Borrow best practice from others

Consistency of approach

Synergy between domains

Avoid duplication

Keen to exchange ideas and methods with other OA authorities

Linkages and inter-relationships with NEC, ISR and Experimentation

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Summary Much on EBA principles at strategic level

Most OA conceptual papers focus on strategic level

Little on EBA at operational / tactical levels, especially in maritime domain Most OA methodologies derive from air domain

Much of efficacy of naval forces based on ‘soft’ effects

Desire to exchange information with other OA authorities, Practising OA assessment at campaign level

Maritime interest

Synergy with parallel EBA initiatives in land and air domains

MWC intend to analyse joint exercise this autumn