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Understanding & Meeting Needsof the Renewable Energy Industry
Priorities, Expectations and Roles
2009 AMS Summer Community Meeting
August 12, 2009Norman, Oklahoma
Mark Ahlstrom, [email protected]
2Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
WindLogics Background
Founded in 1989 by supercomputer architects
Applied meteorology focus
Assessment, forecasting, operations and integration of renewable energy
Intelligent solutions for the world’s energy industry
3Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
NextEra Energy Resources (formerly FPL Energy) WindLogics became a subsidiary of FPL Energy
in September 2006
NextEra is the largest renewable energy providerin North American Wind - 65 wind plants (over 6,400 MW) Solar - seven solar facilities (310 MW) Nuclear, hydro and gas plants More than 17,000 MW of generation
Subsidiary of FPL Group (NYSE: FPL) 2008 revenues more than $16 billion
4Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
Electric Utility Perceptions of Wind & Solar Energy Reliability is job #1
Wind and solar may be sources of free fuel, but how useful is an intermittent source of power?
In the context of traditional operating practices, both the variability of the power delivery and the uncertainty of the schedule are perceived to add risk and costs to the system
If we must live with variability, can’t you at least provide an accurate schedule (forecast) of the power delivery?
5Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
Complexity of Wind Power Output Power proportional to cube of wind speed
Complex interactions with localized flows and between wind turbines themselves
Wind variability in all time scales
Shear
Diurnals
Long-term inter-annual variability
Even with a perfect weather/wind forecast, the power forecast will have errors that are perceived to be higher than what the power industry is used to seeing
6Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
The Unfortunate Reality
For a large portion of the U.S. power grid, the system operator is getting their wind forecast
from a German company
7Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
The Unfortunate Reality
For a large portion of the U.S. power grid, the system operator is getting their wind forecast
from a German companyusing ECMWF
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Needs from Government & Academia Enhanced weather data networks
Improved boundary layer understanding Complex flow regimes (low-level jets, stable layer flows, etc.) Models tuned to lowest 200 meters - with complex terrain & forest Highly instrumented test & validation sites
Improvements to NWP models
Collaborative research plans and roadmaps that optimize assets between and among the public and private sector
9Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
Roles of Public and Private Sector
The general policies from other market sectors seem quite appropriate (for example, the NWS support to DOTs):
NWS has a commitment to public safety Protecting life and property Understanding evolution and timing of hazardous weather events Commitment to work with the private sector
Beyond the scope Site-specific forecasts not related to public safety, life or property Specialized weather support or customized consulting services Customized products which are not directly weather related
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Research Projects Research benefits from real-world input and real scenarios, so
joint projects between government and academic research centers, the private sector and private companies are good
Research projects affiliated with government labs… Open for public review - regular “technical review committee” meetings Designed to advance research topics Avoid any perception of delivering a customized, commercial solution
to a private company Be very mindful of overpromising results
An example with negative perceptions NCAR RAL / Xcel Energy project
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The Risk and Danger Unrealistic expectations, while well meaning and sincere, can
harm the industry
By emphasizing weather forecasting and failing have deep understanding of the business realities, disappointing business results could strengthen the perception that renewables are “intermittent” and unreliable
An extremely high level of involvement, integration and support will be needed to solve this problem in the utility control room
12Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
Role of Private Sector
We strongly believe in the role of the private sectorin adding domain-specific value.
Perception of results Technology transfer Commercialization Support
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Perception is Reality A fragile time in the renewables space
Perceptions are critical – in both utility industry and public
For the electric utility industry, this business transition is extremely complex
Perceived “failures” to achieve expectations may be better handled in the private sector
Don’t become the excuse… We need renewables!
14Copyright 2008, WindLogics Inc. All Rights Reserved
Mark Ahlstrom, CEO651.556.4262
Questions & Discussion