Understanding our Joint Water-Climate Change Challenge & Exploring Policy Options for

Cooperation on the Afghan-Pak Transboundary Kabul River Basin

PEER IV

7-8 Jan 2019, Dubai

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ScientificI. Mapping the current status of surface

water availability and river flow in the transboundary Kabul River Basin; including future demands and consumption

II. Studying the projected impact of climate change on the Kabul River Basin waters through changes in glacial melt, snow melt, rainfall and temperature

DevelopmentI. Exploring possible avenues of

cooperation and mutually beneficial uses for both Afghanistan and Pakistan policy makers, based on the concept of benefit sharing on the transboundary waters of Kabul River basin.

II. Proposing an integrated basin wide approach to guide policy making in the management, governance and development of the transboundary river

Objectives

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PMD & GCISC

CAREC KazakhstanGreen Social Research

Organization – Afghanistan

Ministry of Climate

Change – Pakistan

Project Milestones

Research Papers

based on Kabul River

Basin

Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation

Event Report

Bilateral Discussions through Talk

Series

Policy briefs based on research papers

Policy Dialogue in

Pakistan and Afghanistan

2nd Pak-Afghan

Stakeholders Consultation

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1. Research

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)conducted research on the Kabul River Basin with respect to Climate Change I. PMD Research: Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin using a multi-

model ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data (published in the Earth Systems and Environment Journal: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-018-0061-y)

Key Findings: • Upper reaches of the basin show an annual and seasonal warming of approximately 6.8 °C by

the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario (95% confidence level) • The rise in summer and winter temperatures may negatively affect the snow accumulation

during winter and has the potential to accelerate glacier melting during summers. • There is an evidence that in the 21st century, precipitation may decrease up to 50 percent

across Kabul River Basin4

1. Research

II. GCISC Research: Impact of the 21st century climate change on surface water availability of the Transboundary Kabul River Basin (under review by the journal)

Key Findings: • A greater increase in annual average discharge is predicted with increased variability of the

Kabul River flows• Under both RCP scenarios, the annual maximum flow values in the order of ≥ 6000 m³ /s

have a higher frequency which is alarming as it will lead to floods in the nearby regions• The projected increase in temperature will not only amplify the evaporation but also the water

requirement of the crops and other consumers• Due to high water demand and shortage of water, most of the crops give lower yield and will

find it difficult to survive in these harsh/extreme weather conditions5

2. Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation -Almaty

• Purpose: Engage a bilateral audience to explore avenues of Pak-Afghan water sharing and management of the Kabul River Basin

• Date:12th-14th April 2018• Discussions: I. Consultation on the research papers drafted by PMD and GCISC II. Identification of deficiencies prevalent on both sides of the border such as trust

deficit, lack of awareness and capacity building, and outdated water economy models

III. Exploration of future avenues of cooperation along with policy recommendations such as transparency in all dealings and creation of an information and data sharing system 6

3. Pak-Afghan Consultation Report

• Based on the Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation held in Almaty a report was compiled and published

• It stressed on the adoption of a benefit shared approach by both countries and highlighted the economic and social significance of the Kabul River Basin to both Pakistan and Afghanistan

• The report summarized the key findings and contained a policy brief at the end, including recommendations such as:

I. Transparent due diligence of all proposed projectsII. Systematic ‘capacity building and awareness’

strategy for decision makers, researchers etc.III. Data sharing between the two countries

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As part of LEAD’s Talk Series on Managing Shared Basins, the following topics have been discussed:• Afghanistan-Pakistan Transboundary Water Relations: Engaging with an Estranged Neighbour

(Speaker: Mr. Khalid Aziz)• Integrated Basin wide approaches to the management of Kabul River: Challenges and

Opportunities (Speaker: Shafqat Kakakhel)• Is the Columbia River Treaty Experience relevant for benefit sharing on Kabul River Basin

(Speaker: Mr. William Doan)• Is the Murray Darling Basin success relevant and beneficial to Indus Basin (Speaker: Dr. Bashir

Ahmad)• Lessons for Pakistan from Turkey Armenia Water Agreement (Speaker: Mehmet Altingoz)• Water Cooperation in Central Asia: History and Trend (Speaker: Dr. Iskandar Abdullaev)• Inland Navigation – An Instrument of Peace and Prosperity in Shared Basins (Speaker: Dr. Hassan

Abbas)

4. Bilateral Discussions through LEAD’s Talk Series

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5. Policy Briefs based on Research Papers

• In order to provide solutions to the key issues identified during the Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation and the alarming projections in the research papers presented by PMD and GCISC, LEAD drafted two policy briefs

• These policy briefs suggested: I. Shifting towards water-efficient crop varieties, adjusting cropping pattern and sowing

window to match water availability and suitability of climatic conditionsII. Introducing rainwater harvesting to help aquifer recharge as part of groundwater

conservation and sustainable management III. Developing efficient early warning systems with international cooperation and

participation of the vulnerable communities, especially to deal with flash floodsIV. Creating awareness among local communities about climate change and its impacts on

future rivers flows as well as on miadaptation strategies 9

6. Policy Dialogue in Pakistan & Afghanistan

• In order to mobilize national stakeholders on a common agenda, a policy dialogue will be conducted in Pakistan and Afghanistan respectively

• In collaboration with the Ministry of Climate Change (Pakistan) we have organized an event titled “Pakistan at Global Warming of 1.5 – 2 °C: Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges”, this policy dialogue will refer to IPCC’s latest report and discuss its finding pertinent to Pakistan and Afghanistan

• Government officials, researchers and subject-matter experts will come together and discuss the impacts of Climate Change on Kabul River Basin and its inevitable consequences on key issues such as food security and energy crisis.

• The policy dialogue in Afghanistan was held in collaboration with Green Social Research Organization on 30th November 2018

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7. 2nd Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation -Dubai

• Purpose: To devise an Integrated Basin Wide Approach for the Management of Kabul River waters

• Based on the positive outcomes of the first Pak-Afghan Stakeholders Consultation, the second edition will focus on formulating a pragmatic solution to guide policy making in the management, governance and development of the transboundary Kabul River

• The challenges and opportunities for implementing such an approach will be debated upon

• The policy briefs for the two research papers will also be presented in order to obtain a set of multifaceted set of recommendations from the participants

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www.slideproject.com

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Pak-Afghan Stakeholder

Consultation, Almaty

(12th-14th April 2018)

Bilateral Discussions

through Talk Series

Policy Dialogue in Pakistan (29th

November 2018)

2 Research Papers

Event Report

2 Policy Briefs

Outputs So Far

7Policy Dialogue in Afghanistan

(30th November 2018)12