Understanding Risk to Investments
Anoma PannalaDirector, Ministry of Irrigation and Water
Resource Management, Sri Lanka1
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87% of Sri Lankan population lives in hotspots
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Recurrent climate-induced disasters pressure national economy
Annual Average Disaster Loss: US$ 380 million
Disasters Affected population Estimated impacts
2017 Floods 879,778 US$ 470 M
2016 Floods 493,319 US$ 720 M
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Comprehensive Climate and Disaster Resilience Program
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Major Challenge
• Critical two river basins completed (Kelaniand Mundeni Aru)
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Mundeni Aru
Analytical works informing
US$ 3 billion+ investment plans
• 9 basins to be completed by May 2019
→ Being prepared as a new project financed by WB and AIIB
→ Ready for financing by the national budget and/or development partners
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Flood and Drought Modeling
Integrated Flood and Drought Risk Assessment
Identification of Flood Risk Reduction measures
PFS for integrated Flood & Drought reduction
measures
FS for prioritized measures for Implementing
Development of Computational
FrameworkModeling for Investment Plans
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Modeling
Platform for SWAT
GIS Data Processing and Analysis
Data Processing and Analysis
Rating Conceptualization, Flood Analysis
Detailed/2D Flood Analysis
Rainfall Runoff Modeling
Water Demand Allocation
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Flood Modeling for Kelani8.29
3.18
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Wa
te
r L
ev
el (m
At G
au
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Z
ero
)
Date
Maximum Water Level from 1960 to 2016 (m)
0
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4
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8
10
12
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18
200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
/hr)
Flo
w (
cum
ecs
)
Event Analysis: Flow and rainfall
Hourly Rainfall (mm) Observed Flow (m3/s) Flow (m3/s) - Natural SWAT model Flow (m3/s) - Natural SWAT model with major reservoirs
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Proposed Structural Measures for Kelani
Embankments for lower stream (1:50 year)
Upstream reservoirs
NON STRUCTURAL MEASURES
• Prepare an integrated flood risk management plan
• Establish a real-time monitoring and operation system
• Improve operation of existing reservoirs
• Improve the drainage systems
• Land use planning
Proposed Non-Structural Measures
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Lessons from Sri Lanka
❖ MoF’s engagement is critical to allocate budgets
❖ Instruments like DPL with Cat DDO and Fiscal Risk
Assessment ensures MoF engagement
❖ Sustainability through full-time, on-the-job engagement
of Government staff
❖ Breaking data barriers and multi-agency collaboration
Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainability
Thank you very much foryour attention