UNDERSTANDING SMART ENERGY TRANSITION...UNDERSTANDING SMART ENERGY TRANSITION: Tapping into...

UNDERSTANDING SMART ENERGY TRANSITION: Tapping into Experts’ Views on Future Energy Market Disruption in Finland


12.6.2017 Futures Conference, Turku

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Tatu Marttilaa, Tero Ahonenb, Mikko Jalasa & Mikko Raskc

a Aalto University, School of Arts, Design and Architecture, Finlandb Lappeenranta University of Technology, School of Energy Systems, Finlandc University of Helsinki, Consumer Society Research Centre, Finland


Paper & presentation contents:The Academy of Finland funded Smart Energy Transition (SET) project is focusing to the analysis of future energy market disruptions in Finland.This paper discusses how to manage expert input in developing themes of interest in futures research in energy. The focus is on understanding how the original research focus developed, who were invited to interaction, how themes of interest were introduced to the process, and how these themes evolved into resulting categorizations for findings.

Focus in this paper is to understand:

1. How should smart energy and future energy market disruption be understood, and how do energy experts view it?

2. How does the research agenda become introduced by the project consortium, and how can it be developed with expert interaction?

Key words:

Delphi survey, Energy system, Futures research, Energy technologies, Sustainability

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The international consensus (e.g. COP21) as well as several energy market actors are gradually acknowledging that future energy solutions must be radically renewed.

To meet the expectations of future users and producers, these solutions need to serve more dynamic and low-impact production, based on more sustainable sources and better control of consumption.

A topical and yet overarching theme such as 'smart energy' invites a wide range of actors and interests to interaction.

Smart Energy Transition project tackles the global disruption of energy markets by creating pathways for Finland to profit from the energy disruption.

(see: www.smartenergytransition.fi)

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Introduction and Background


Smart Energy Transition project, WP1The Academy of Finland funded Smart Energy Transition (SET) project is focusing to the analysis of future energy market disruptions in Finland, to understand how this information could be utilized in future decision-making.The project consortium consists of leading national-level experts of future energy, as well as policy experts from different academic, entrepreneurial and governmental institutions and actors.

SET Work Package 1 focuses on a) analyzing on the rate, direction and impacts of the technological disruption, and b) mapping of the opportunities and challenges for Finland’s strengthsThe main objective of SET WP1 is to “identify the possible directions, triggering factors, rates and impacts of the ongoing disruption in smart energy technologies” (SET project plan, 2015).

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Energy sector connects to various institutions, actors, interests and agendas. As a context of action it can be identified as complex setting, demanding understanding from various expert fields.

‘Smart energy in Finland in 2030’ as a topical keyword can be used to invite various actors to discuss future development of the energy sector (even ‘disruptions’).

Ideas and understanding emerging from niches to a ”patchwork of regimes,” and into the sociotechnical landscape. (Rip & Kemp, 1996; Kemp et al., 2001; Geels, 2002)

To understand how trends and drivers and insights from future technology potential will materialize in future, various expert input is needed

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Analyzing Sociotechnical Change


Tapping into Socio-Technical Change:

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Figure. The dynamics of sociotechnical change (Rip & Kemp, 1996; Kemp et al., 2001; Geels, 2002)


Future studies employ various tools to anticipate the future. Outcomes may include scenarios of possible futures and responses to them by present actors. Scenarios assess possibilities and threats and open up a space for current actors to react, anticipate, mitigate or speed up particular trends.

To better understand the future disruption on Finnish energy sector, the SET project incorporates both the 1) mapping of existing and emerging future energy landscapes, as well as a 2) future forecast exercise performed with a panel of experts from both technological and policy-making sector.

Delphi is a method for futures research, developed initially by the RAND corporation (Rowe & Wright, 1999). The Delphi Method works through several cycles of anonymous surveys, managed by research team.

The deliberativeness of the process considered: The anonymity in Delphi to invite individual views and to avoid personality/institutional conflict -> Face-to-face interaction in workshops in which actors meet face-to-face in interest groups

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Expert Studies, Futures Research & Delphi Method


Initially, SET WP1 activities aim to:

1. Analyze the disruptive technologies behind smart energy transition and their impacts on society and its growth spearheads: cleantech, digitalization and bio-economy.

2. Explore how different sectors can benefit from the transition

3. Co-create solutions

WP1 work in SET connected identified experts to the process of research, in four phases of interaction.

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Developing the Agenda for Smart Energy 2030?

UNDERSTANDING SMART ENERGY TRANSITION: Tapping into Experts’ Views on Future Energy Market Disruption in Finland 9

SET WP1 – Technology Outlook Phases of expert interaction:The expert interactions in SET WP1 can be divided in four phases of interaction, with also changes in involved actors:

Phase 1 (networking, interviews & background research):Connecting and networking, gathering panel of experts; Analyzing existing research and projects in “international metascenario analysis”; Selected expert interviews (n=11) to identify concepts and map the context for change

Phase 2 (expert Delphi survey R1):The Delphi survey R1 (n≈50), in which a panel of experts can have their say regarding the drivers, potential technologies and future development

Phase 3 (Expert Delphi survey R2):Based on R1, the Delphi survey R2 assess possibilities and feasibility of seven technology scenarios based on R1.

Phase 4 (Workshop):The scenarios, supported with Delphi findings, are assessed in face-to-face workshop (~30 participants)


SET WP1 – Technology Outlook Phases of expert interaction:

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Earlierresearchprojects

Networks&networking

PHASE11-2/2016

Meta-scenarioanalysison

energyfutures

Technologyoutsight

SETexpertinterviews(Jan-Feb)

PHASE23/2016

Delphiround1

(March-April)

PHASE35/2016

Delphiround2

(May)

PHASE46/2016

Workshop(6.6.2016)

Figure. The overall process and phases in preparing and implementing the expert interaction.


The expert panel was composed from Finnish experts of different fields in technology and politics, and companies of various sizes.

250 people were invited to the WP1 & Delphi interaction.

Altogether the different rounds of the survey were answered by 50-60 persons, and about 30 attended to the workshop.

Management of the expert network is a crucial step in creating commitment and staging interaction

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Compiling the Expert Panel

Delphipanel

Policypanel

Techpanel

SETmembers

Figure. The Delphi panel consisting of technology panel, policy panel and SET members

Expert panel


Progress of the SET WP1 inquiry:

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PROJECT PLAN

EARLIER RESEARCH

EXPERT INTERVIEWS

Delphi SurveyRounds 1 & 2 WP1 FINDINGS

NEW ACTIVITIES

OTHER NEW RESEARCH

CON

CEPT

UA

LIZA

TIO

N &

CON

TEXT

UA

LIZA

TIO

N

POSS

IBLE

MA

TERI

ALI

ZATI

ON

SIN

FIN

LAN

D IN

203

0

Scales

Connections

Actors

PHASE 1:• Scoping context & technologies• Networking with actors• Expert interviews: Identifying

concepts and components• (Jan-Feb, 2016)

Identifying

Networking

Scoping

PHASE 2• Developing Delphi survey R1• Identification of important

drivers and technologies, predicted change

• Refining 7 themes• (March-April, 2016)

PHASE 3• Implementing Delphi survey R2• Assessing input and themes

refined from R1• Developing 7 themes into

scenarios• (May, 2016)

PHASE 4:• Expert workshop• Refining 7 scenarios for 2030• Anonymity dismantled• Continues with analysis and

publications• (June, 2016 ->)


Focus of the activities in the four phases:

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PHASE11/2016-2/2016

Meta-scenarioanalysisonenergyfutures:- Whatischanginginfutureenergysector

Technologyoutsight:- Whattypeoftechnologiesarepossibleorfeasible?

SETexpertinterviews:- Whatissmartenergy,whatitcontains/entails?- Howshouldtech.disruptioninenergysectorbeunderstood?

PHASE23/2016

Delphiround1:- Buildsuponphase1scoping...- Assessingthecontext(smartenergyandfutureenergydisruption)- Assessingsmart/disruptiveenergytechnologies(impact,feasibility)- Assessingtransitioncontext(externalaspects,enablingsystems)- Assessingimplications- Focusingon5yeartimeframe- Identifying7important‘technologyscenarios’

PHASE35/2016

Delphiround2:- BuildsuponDelphiR1results- Assessingandrefining7scenariosforsmartenergytransitions- Assessingimplicationsondifferentsectorsofsocietalactivities(e.g.transport,housingetc.)- Focusingon5/15/30yearstimeframe

PHASE46/2016

Workshop6.6.2016:- BuildsuponDelphiresults- Howsmartenergymaterializesin2030?- Developing7scenariosin7workinggroups- Whatarethescalesandspecificationsofsmartenergysystems- Whoarethechange-makers?Whatarethebarriers?- Focusingonyear2030


During the SET WP1 interactions (Phases 1-4) the expert input reoriented the focus several times

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Developing the Inquiry with Expert Interactions


Themes of interest (Phase 1 – Scoping & expert interviews):

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Newsourcesdisruptingenergymarkets:

Windandsolarpower

Newopportunitiesfromrenewables:

Biomassbasedenergyasonecomponent(duringtransition

tozero-carbon)

Changesinconsumptionanddemand:

BuildingsenergydemandDistributedproduction

Combiningproductionwithconsumption:

Peakpowerdemandanddemandresponsesystems


Testing drivers in focus (Phase 2 – Delphi R1):

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Technology potential (Phase 2 – Delphi R1):

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Refining 7 technology scenarios for 2030 (Phase 3 – Delphi R2):

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Peak power and domestic supply

Digitalization & demand response

Biomass-based energy system

Buildings’ energy efficiency

Heatpumps & solar heat

Windpower

Solar electricity

Not at all important

Not important

Somewhat important

Important

Very important


Delphi participants (R2):

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Materializations (Phase 4 - WS):- 7 technology

scenarios for 2030

- Working with maps and colored Post-it’s

- Identifying technology-related drivers & aspects (session 1)

- Discussing materialization (scales, actors, actions; session 2)

- Discussing what needs to be changed (session 3)

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Materializations (Phase 4 - WS):- Example of results:

Wind power in Finland in 2030

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Analyzing future energy disruptions with expert insight:

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Figure. Developing understanding on sociotechnical materialization of future energy(Based on Geels, 2002)

Delphi R1:

Delphi R2:Workshop:

7 technology scenarios:

How technologies materialize, what are

barriers, future potential

(focus in 2030)

PHASE IV


Future energy disruptions and ‘smart energy’ as complex, sociotechnical transitions:

• Complexity of the setting -> Expert interaction outside project consortium is needed

• Emphasis on networking, managing interaction, governing process

• Several methods of interaction and analysis (interviews, surveys, workshop)

• Deliberative process needed, focus in managing input both anonymously (Delphi) and face-to-face (networking, workshopping)

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Conclusions


Aalto University School of Business

Aalto University School of Art and Design

Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)

Consumer Society Research Centre, University of Helsinki

Lappeenranta University of Technology

Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU)/Sussex University

VATT Institute for Economic Research

VTT Technical Research Centre

Motiva, City of Lappeenranta, Heureka, FinPro

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References:Geels, F. W. (2002). Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective

and a case-study. Research Policy 31 (2002), pp. 1257–1274.

Kemp, R., Rip, A., Schot, J.W. (2001). Constructing transition paths through the management of niches. In: Garud, R., Karnoe, P. (Eds.), Path Dependence and Creation. Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ, pp. 269–299.

Rip, A., Kemp, R. (1996). Towards a Theory of Socio-Technical Change. Mimeo University of Twente, Report prepared for Batelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Washington, DC. (An edited version has been published as book chapter Rip and Kemp 1998).

Rowe, G., Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting 15, pp. 353–375

Smart Energy Project consortium (2016). Scoping paper. Online.

Smart Energy Project consortium (2015). Project plan.

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