Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans ... · storms. • Afon Wen: This scheme...

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders – Interim Findings

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Foreword 4

Introduction 5

The Case for Change 7

Today’s immediate challenges:

Habitat in Wales 9

Shoreline Management Plans 12

Fairbourne 14

Conwy Valley Line 16

Old Colwyn Sea Wall 17

A Way Forward:

AssetCoast 18

Rail industry funding 19

Pilot research study area: Cardigan Bay and the Cambrian Coast Line 20

Summary and roadmap to final publication 23

Appendix A: Shoreline Management Plan process flowchart 24

Appendix B: Detailed SMP policies for Cardigan Bay 25

Appendix C: SMP policy maps for Wales for each epoch from Natural Resources Wales

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Appendix D: Glossary 33

Contents

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Foreword

The impact of climate change and more regular occurrence of severe weather events, such as storms Ciara and Dennis in early 2020, provides demonstrable evidence that much greater planning activity will need to be undertaken to consider the impact on our communities and on the other national infrastructure that serves these communities such as the national road and rail networks. From a railway perspective, storms in recent years have had a devastating impact on the railway network with a number of railway lines having had to be closed, sometimes for many months. Key examples include at Dawlish, the Conwy Valley Line and along the Cambrian Coast Line, all having had to be substantially rebuilt at locations which have seen extensive storm and/or flood damage. This has had significant negative economic impacts to those parts of the country. These events also had a significant impact on the communities they serve, with significant impacts on passengers and the movement of freight. Increased levels of rain fall, and tidal surges has also caused flooding which impacts the rail network significantly and we can expect these phenomena to become more of the norm as the world continues to get warmer and see levels continue to rise.

Shoreline management planning is becoming ever more important. Looking to the future, there will undoubtably be difficult and in some cases particularly stark choices to be made as to how our communities and supporting infrastructure will need to adapt to these environmental challenges. The Shoreline Management Plans nationally seeks to address these considerations by setting out a framework and timescale by when the policy will be enacted to meet the challenges of climate change and rising sea levels.

The Network Rail Wales and Borders route has the most extensive amount of coastal railway in GB, with a significant part of the rail network located in coastal and river valley locations. Often the railway in itself provides either a primary or lesser line of defence against coastal erosion simply due to where it was constructed.

In addition, many parts of these routes are located in areas which are classed as Natura 2000 sites, meaning any ‘plans or projects’ in these areas are subject to Habitat Regulations which may suggest habitat compensation is required, particularly in areas affected by coastal squeeze.

Coastal Groups and Local Authorities are starting to interpret the Shoreline Management Plans, their wider policy and regulatory context in Wales.

Given the extent of coastal rail assets in Wales, it has been determined that further guidance is required to raise awareness of these impacts on the railway and how it is 1) funded for operations, maintenance and renewals, and 2) the longer-term strategic considerations that will require to be assessed to ensure alignment with regional adaptation of the Shoreline Management Plans and policy.

This interim document sets out the initial research undertaken, which has involved significant engagement with Welsh Government, Natural Resources Wales, Gwynedd County Council (who are leading in their Shoreline Management adaptation planning), climate change experts, and rail industry asset management teams in Wales & Borders route. This seeks to highlight the challenges the rail network and industry will have to face to meet the wider societal challenges of climate change and rising sea levels. This interim assessment identifies some of the emerging gaps and their impacts arising out of the Shoreline Management Plans and the HRAs and options for working more collaboratively with wider stakeholders to meet these challenges. It also seeks to set out a road map for further work to be undertaken during 2020/21.This will look to assess in greater detail the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the Wales & Borders network to provide a longer-term line of sight to inform rail funders and policy makers of when future further significant strategic planning and decisions will be required.

This document has been produced by the Wales Strategic Planning team who are part of the System Operator function of Network Rail and if you would like any further information, please contact: [email protected].

mailto:[email protected]

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Current situation

The aim of this study is to outline the key risks facing the railway and highlighting potential options for the railway over the next three epochs, up to 2105. This document will be used to influence strategic planning within the railway and wider transport network, which is laid out in the roadmap later in the document. This study is influenced by climate change and extreme weather which is an ever-prominent issue making headlines nationally and globally. At the time of writing, the UK, including parts of Wales, is recovering from the damage caused by storms Ciara and Dennis. Not only have these storms caused widespread flooding to homes and businesses, the railway has also suffered with some lines closed for several days, and longer across the whole of Wales. There is a need to start considering the longer-term impact of climate change and more frequent extreme weather events in our strategic planning activity.

Across GB, Wales has the largest amount of coastal railway and the continued evidence of sea level rises means a longer-term view is required on what the predicted future changes to the Welsh coastline will mean for our railway assets, passengers and freight users. These coastal lines generally serve more rural communities, providing key social connectivity for the passengers who use them. Due to their coastal nature these lines also have vital roles for the local and regional tourism industry.

Additionally, Network Rail needs to be able to continue maintaining, renewing and operating these coastal assets despite the specific environmental challenges which assets face based on their localised shoreline planning and many locations being in conservation areas. In the future Network Rail needs to understand what funding will be required for future asset requirements. This can only be done if shoreline planning is done collaboratively, working with local authorities and other infrastructure and land owners.

Study Purpose, Scope and Methodology

This interim study has been produced, following discussions between Network Rail and Stakeholders, initially as a piece of research, to seek to provide an initial assessment of what these complex issues mean for sustaining the national rail network in coastal areas, in line with prescribed policy relating to rising sea levels and climate change.

The document is structured as follows:

The Case for Change – outlining why this document has been produced and explains the global impact of climate change and how this explicitly impacts on transport systems and networks.

The next three areas highlight the current challenges that today’s railway faces:

Habitat in Wales – reviewing the habitat in Wales, why this is a unique challenge, and impacts arising from the need for compliance with Habitat Regulation Assessments;

Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) – addressing the outcomes of the individual SMPs which have been produced across GB to address future changes in coastal processes such as sea level rise. This includes three specific geographical case studies which illustrate examples of where extreme weather, habitat regulations and SMPs are, and will in the future, having an impact on the railway. These are at: Fairbourne, Conwy Valley Line and Old Colwyn Sea Wall;

AssetCoast – detailing one of the ways Network Rail is looking to address these issues, including one of the tools currently used to monitor coastal railway assets;

How the railway is currently funded – explaining how Network Rail is funded and governed in terms of operating, maintain, renewal and enhancing the rail network;

Pilot Research area: Cardigan Bay – detailing the immediate issues facing the railway and communities on the Cambrian Coast Line;

Summary and roadmap to final publication – setting out how this document will continue to evolve and develop to a final publication in Spring 2021.

Introduction

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Work to date has involved invaluable collaboration with a range of industry and wider stakeholders including Natural Resources Wales and Local Authorities.

This interim study focuses on the more immediate forecast changes in coastal processes in the Cardigan Bay area and the Cambrian Coast railway line. Gwynedd County Council have been a key stakeholder as they have carried out more detailed action planning due to the immediacy of these changes.

Further work will continue following this interim study, extending scope to the other coastal railway lines in Wales and Borders, providing an indication of when further strategic planning has to be done in what areas. The summary chapter details the roadmap this work intends to follow to final publication.

Network Rail has a Network Licence obligation to lead the planning of the future of the rail network. This study has been produced under this framework as a continuous programme of strategic planning activity in Wales and Borders.

Collaboration

This document highlights some of the significant challenges faced by regional and local communities and the national rail network plays a prominent role in providing access to such locations.

With climate change and other environmental factors and regulations having an impact on Network Rail’s and other stakeholders’ infrastructure, Network Rail recognises the importance of developing policy and strategies for dealing with the impacts of climate change, in close collaboration with the communities that the railway serves.

This recognises the need for a greater focus on how we consider railway and coastal assets holistically from a strategic, maintenance and renewal perspective, aligned with policies outlined in the SMPs.

This interim document therefore seeks to outline a roadmap to the further work needed in this regard. This work builds on early engagement and activity undertaken with a number of organisations, particularly Gwynedd County Council who is actively engaging with Network Rail with regard to the impact of Climate Change on the Cambrian Coast Line.

Working with Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales and other Coastal Groups we will look to share our initial work and develop further policy and strategy collaboratively going forward.

Wellbeing of Future Generations Act

The Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015 is a legislation which applies to all public bodies in Wales and Welsh Government to ensure long term sustainability is key to all their thinking. The legislation is not applicable to Network Rail because the Act only applies to the 44 public bodies in Wales and Welsh Government. However, we felt due to the nature of this Strategic Planning guidance, it is entirely relevant we include how this study complies with the Act, particularly as the local authorities in Wales who lead on their own Shoreline Management Plans, must adhere to the Act.

The purpose of the Act is to improve the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. It incorporates seven well-being goals:

• A globally responsible Wales • A prosperous Wales • A resilient Wales • A healthier Wales • A more equal Wales • A Wales of cohesive communities • A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh

language

Network Rail believes that this document supports the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015 to help ensure long-term sustainability goals.

Introduction cont.

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Climate Change – An issue for Network Rail

Climate change is already having a large effect on the National Rail Network and infrastructure. This is evident from incidents such as extreme weather events that have affected the Conwy Valley Line particularly in 2019 and 2020, the railway line at Dawlish in 2014 and where there have been increased occurrences of temporary speed restrictions due to the impact of heat on railway infrastructure. Concerningly, trends predict that devastating weather events like heavy rain fall, flooding and heatwaves are set to become more extreme and frequent in the future. These extreme weather events are coinciding with a rise in sea levels. Extreme weather events and rising sea levels are having a negative effect on the railway network, destroying infrastructure and delaying passengers. Therefore, this is proving costly to the railway industry, with weather related delay minutes costing between £200-300m each year, this is without the cost of repairing infrastructure. However, disruption to the rail network also has wider socio-economic impacts, which justifies continued investment to increase weather resilience and to ensure that timely decisions are made about the future of the railway’s infrastructure, especially when considering renewals and enhancements of infrastructure.

All environmental threats are a challenge to the railway, but one of the key threats is rising sea levels, which are predicted to continue rising to unprecedented levels. Rising sea levels subsequently increases the risk of flooding which has increased by approximately 230% in the past 20 years [1]. Rising sea levels and subsequent flooding is costing the UK Government £540m every year; making flooding a top priority for UK Government [2]. Rising sea levels and other extreme weather events are worsening due to climate change, which is subsequently caused by an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs). According to the World Meteorological Organisation, GHGs hit a record high in 2019 with no sign of slowing down, let alone a decline which is needed to reverse the effects of climate change [3]. However, it is estimated that approximately 70% of sea level rises today are attributed to human activity

[1]. Therefore Governments, industries and individuals all need to work together to curb the devastating impacts of climate change.

The Necessary Steps

It was previously suggested that nations already have the knowledge and resources to confront climate change. This will remain a challenge and further political impetus will be required to develop the strategy to limit the use of carbon, created from fossil fuels, such as coal. However, there has been an increase in awareness of the impacts of climate change and the devastation that it is causing. Heightened awareness is therefore encouraging governments to take action, which is evident through the Paris Agreement and the Welsh and UK Governments declaring a climate emergency. The UK Government has also announced the removal of diesel vehicles, including trains by 2040. Governmental action is key to encourage businesses and the population to make changes that can help curb climate change.

Therefore, in response to the climate emergency and the diesel ban, the rail industry is taking action to become a zero-carbon industry. Nationally, Network Rail is demonstrating leadership within the rail industry to take action and are undertaking initiatives such as the traction decarbonisation network strategy to help towards the goal of zero-carbon. Network Rail is also currently working on a national vision and strategy for the next 30 years. It is important that the railway industry is strategically thinking about the future because the solutions needed may take many years to implement to ensure the most appropriate and sustainable transport modes are in place to support communities and economies. However, another way in which the rail industry is reducing carbon emissions is through its role of providing a lower-carbon transport mode compared to other more transport modes which emit increased emissions.

Specifically, within the Wales and Borders Route, there are initiatives being undertaken to improve their resilience against weather and climate change events, and in most ways this route is ahead of the rest of the country. The Wales and Borders Route is improving resilience through route-specific objectives and understanding risks by assessing their weather-related vulnerabilities.

The Case for Change

“Over 60% of the Welsh population live and work on the coast. Our coastlines and

riverbanks add great value to our well-being with their natural beauty, biodiversity and

recreation opportunities. Flooding of homes, businesses and infrastructure is an

unwelcome risk to many people living in Wales and can have severe detrimental

impacts on quality of life including mental health”

National Infrastructure Commission for Wales Annual Report

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A National Picture

There are several activities ongoing from a national perspective relating to how the industry is reacting to environmental issues and the challenge of climate change, some of which will be outlined in this section.

Network Rail published a national Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation (WRCCA) Strategy in 2017 which sets out the aim to provide a future rail network that is safe and more resilient to the effects of weather, now and in the future. Planning is based on UK climate projections to 2080.

The strategy incorporates the following strategic outcomes:

• Infrastructure able to withstand the impact of future weather conditions

• Rapid recovery from the impacts of adverse and extreme weather events

• Improved performance and safety during adverse and extreme weather conditions

• Financial savings through reduced compensation payments and repair costs

• Enhanced reputation and trust in the railway’s ability to manage weather events.

Following on from the publication of the national WRCCA Strategy, Wales and Borders has also published a local plan for CP6 up to 2024. There are also plans to build upon these with an update to the WRCCA strategy and a national Rail Industry Resilience Review to follow in 2020-21.

Nationally Network Rail is also building a high-level sustainability strategy which will look ahead 30 years considering the response to challenges in all areas of sustainable development, and supporting routes and regions to develop their own aligned sustainability plans and incorporating potential political, technological, social, economic and legal drivers of change.

A greener railway

Following the recent introduction of greener bi-mode Intercity Express Trains (capable of operating under electric or diesel traction) by Great Western Railway which operate between London Paddington and south Wales.

Transport for Wales has also committed to delivering a greener fleet of new trains as part of their rail services contract, with plans including the introduction of bi-mode and tri-mode (capable of operating under electric, diesel or battery traction) trains on the busy core valley lines into Cardiff. Additionally, as part of the West Coast franchise, Avanti has committed to introducing bi-mode trains operating between London Euston and north Wales.

Network Rail is also responding to the UK legal target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, by commencing a Traction Decarbonisation Network Study for the Department for Transport (DfT). This will consider scenarios based on the technologies which could be deployed on the unelectrified network.

The Rail Delivery Group (RDG) is similarly supporting the industry in promoting modal shift to rail and the vision of achieving a carbon free railway.

For further information:

[1] = SeaLevelRise.org https://sealevelrise.org/

[2] = Government Office for Science – Future of the Sea: Current and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the UK https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/663885/Future_of_the_sea_-_sea_level_rise.pdf

[3] = World Meteorological Organisation https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-levels-atmosphere-reach-new-record

The Case for Change cont.

https://sealevelrise.org/

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/663885/Future_of_the_sea_-_sea_level_rise.pdf



https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-levels-atmosphere-reach-new-record

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-levels-atmosphere-reach-new-record

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An introduction to biodiversity in Wales

The varied geology and temperate climate in Wales supports a rich variety of flora and fauna including some species unique to Britain and Wales. Because of this rich variety, across Wales there are 20 Special Protection Areas for birds and 92 Special Areas of Conservation for other rare species and threatened natural habitats. Collectively these, along with similar sites across Europe, are known as Natura 2000 sites, and they form a conservation network of international importance for wildlife and follow legislation designed to protect the most seriously threatened habitats and species across Europe.

The sites in Wales are shown in Figure 2 and cover more than 700,000 hectares, covering 7% of Welsh land area, and 36% of terrestrial waters.

There is a commitment for Network Rail Wales Route included in the Strategic Business Plan (SBP) for the period up to 2024, to ‘minimise our impact on the environment’ and there are several activities and principles in place to help support this objective through vegetation management, innovation and habitat protection. Some of these activities are included in the summary biodiversity report produced by Network Rail (NR) which can be found here:

https://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/resources/wales-route-section-6-summary-report-p2

Habitat Regulations Assessment Process

Although habitat regulations have been in place since 1994, 2017 saw the introduction of the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations. These regulations ensure any plan or project which is likely to have a significant effect on a Natura 2000 site must be subject to an appropriate assessment, which led to the introduction of Habitat Regulations Assessments (HRA).

HRAs consider several potential impacts of the plan or project such as:

• Loss of habitat

• Site disturbance

• Water change and quality

There are several steps to a HRA which any proposer needs to work through before progressing. A simplified overview of this process is shown in Figure 1.

The final step in the HRA process, if a project progresses that far, is to identify whether any compensatory measures required. This is relevant where it is deemed the plan or project will have an adverse effect on the site, no alternatives solutions exist, and the project or plan needs to proceed due to ‘Imperative Reasons of Overriding Public Interest’ (IROPI).

Natural Resources Wales (NRW), who are accountable to Welsh Ministers, are one of the consultees for HRAs in Wales. NRW is the largest Welsh Government sponsored body whose purpose is to ensure that the environment and natural resources of Wales are sustainably maintained, enhanced and used. They act as regulator for designated sites, land manager for 7% of the land area in Wales and an environmental operator managing over 500km of flood defences.

Network Rail hold a Memorandum of Understanding with NRW which sets out an understanding of common objectives between the two parties, responsibilities and general principles.

Habitat in Wales

Figure 1: Simplified view of the HRA process



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What this means to Network Rail

The Network Rail Wales and Borders route has the most extensive amount of coastal railway in GB, and most of the coastal railway also features in areas which are classed as Natura 2000 sites, meaning any ‘plans or projects’ in these areas are subject to HRAs.

This has resulted in a number of considerations both within NR and with NRW about firstly which projects fall into this process, if it is deemed that compensation is required, whether NR has any compensatory land available, whether this land is sufficient or suitable, and other issues such as ownership and maintenance of this land. The alternative option if the available compensatory land is neither sufficient nor appropriate for use, then monetary compensation can be offered in order to purchase suitable land.

This is not possible at present as NR’s funding settlement for CP6 (the period up until 2024) from the Department for Transport (DfT) has been set and funding is only included for operation, maintenance and renewal of the railway. Any other funding requirements are subject to separate governance processes.

It is also worth recognising that the funding issue is somewhat unique in Wales, due to the process by which NRW treats and interprets compensation requirements, compared to the interpretation and treatment by the English bodies such as the Environment Agency (EA), Natural England and the Marine Management Organisation.

This applies to projects in the English parts of the Wales and Borders route, which are also in Natura 2000 sites, such as areas of the Severn Estuary.

The differences between interpretation in England and Wales will be explored in more detail in the final publication of this document.

Habitat in Wales cont.

Figure 2: Location of Natura 2000 sites in Wales, from NRW

National Habitat Creation Programme

The Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs), which are described in greater detail later in this document, were also subject to the HRA process. This concluded that adverse effects could not be ruled out due to the anticipated effects of coastal squeeze (coastal habitat such as salt marsh being squeezed between an artificial or natural sea defence and rising sea levels), depending on the policy defined in that area.

This resulted in the Welsh Government establishing the National Habitat Creation Programme (NHCP) to help provide a strategic response to those coastal squeeze issues related to Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) schemes and is managed by NRW. The purpose of the NHCP is to protect the coast of Wales while managing the effects of our changing shoreline on designated coastal habitats. It aims to provide like-for-like habitat compensation through managing existing land in such a way that new habitats, such as salt marsh, can be created, which would then deliver habitat offset requirements detailed in the SMPs.

As part of this programme NRW have been identifying land which appears most suitable for this purpose and contacting landowners including NR for discussions.

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Ferryside

A key example of where Network Rail renewal plans are being impacted is at Ferryside. This case study shows where the interrelated issues of coastal squeeze, requirements driven by habitat regulations, other permissions required (such as marine licences) and coordination of multiple organisations, has been a challenge.

Ferryside is located on the South Wales Mainline between Llanelli and Carmarthen and is within an area where the SMP stipulates to hold the line for all three epochs; 2025, 2055, 2105.

Within this area there is a sea wall which needs to be repointed and new rock armour is required to protect railway assets. These minor renewal works as of March 2020 still have not taken place, even though they were scheduled for 2017, in a previous control period. This is due to the location being in a Special Area of Conservation and Protection, and the scheme requiring an HRA, as detailed above. In this case the HRA which was completed by Natural Resources Wales (NRW) deemed that this project would require habitat compensation of 1.8 hectares of suitable land such as salt marsh, or a monetary equivalent. Monetary values differ depending on location, but in this example, the monetary compensation requested for the works planned at Ferryside is approximately £100,000, which would effectively mean the cost of the maintenance work would be approximately twice that contained in our business plan.

Network Rail has very limited suitable or surplus land which would meet the requirements of NRW to offer as compensation. Additionally, any land transfers or disposal are subject to regulatory control and ORR approval. There is also no suitable funding allocation to provide monetary compensation. This has therefore resulted in the determination of the Marine Licence, required for the works to progress, being effectively paused until the compensation question has been addressed.

As mentioned above, works at Ferryside were planned for 2017, however due to these issues, the works have still not taken place and is not currently scheduled until further examinations of the asset are undertaken in 2021. The risk of pushing back schemes in this way means there is higher likelihood that assets could fail, therefore increasing risks to the operational railway and its users, and becoming more costly to repair. Additionally, the longer assets are left, the more they deteriorate, which could increase the scope of the original works planned.

Due to the experience at Ferryside, Network Rail asset managers have decided to push these works into Control Period 6 (CP6 – 2019-2024), but this has meant that there must be a substitution of other works that were already planned in CP6. Asset managers have also made the decision to rescheduled coastal works that require HRA’s in CP6 towards the end of the control period, as at present there is no clear solution for addressing habitat compensation. However, this adds further risk that CP6 works may need to be pushed into Control Period 7 (CP7 – 2024-2029).

For further information

UK Government guidance on HRAs: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/appropriate-assessment Welsh Assembly research on HRAs: https://www.assembly.wales/Research%20Documents/17-038/17-038-Web-English.pdf

Briefing note from NRW on National Habitat Creation Programme (NHCP):

http://severnestuarycoastalgroup.org.uk/files/2016/03/NRW-NHCP-Background-Brief.pdf

Habitat in Wales: Ferryside

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/appropriate-assessment



https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DodYRK_G_Uew&psig=AOvVaw1G-8MJrzzzMSkNT1XgiNIX&ust=1585323772808000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCKDWv7S9uOgCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAR

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Shoreline Management Plans

Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) have been produced for the coastlines of England, Scotland and Wales; developed by the relevant Coastal Groups, with members mainly from the local authorities and the Environment Agency and/or Natural Resources Wales (NRW) following guidance from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). All of the SMPs across England and Wales are detailed on the following page in Figure 3.

The SMPs identify the most sustainable approach to managing the flood and coastal erosion risks to the coastline and support efforts to prepare for future sea level rises and increased likelihood of flooding caused by severe weather events over a 100-year period. They are non-statutory policy documents for coastal defence management planning and are designed to take account of other existing planning initiatives and legislative requirements and are intended to inform wider strategic planning.

SMPs are not designed to set policy for anything other than coastal defence management, but they are being utilised as the guidance which local authorities and other stakeholders are using for their future plans for communities, infrastructure and land on the coast. A Coastal Group has been set up for each SMP which is led by the leading local authority for that SMP, and includes all key partners, infrastructure and land owners including NRW and Network Rail.

Initial SMPs (SMP1) were produced in the early 2000’s, then more recently a refresh was carried out (SMP2) which enabled the SMPs to take on lessons learnt and more detailed strategic thinking and coastline monitoring.

Each SMP is divided into a number of geographical ‘policy units’ and forecast how these stretches of coastline are likely to be affected over three epochs – short term (0-20 years), medium term (20-50 years) and long term (50-100 years). Each policy unit was then assigned one of four policies to be implemented during each epoch.

Tables 1 and 2 on the left illustrate both the SMP policy definitions and epochs in more detail.

A flow chart summarising how the SMPs are broken down is shown in Appendix A.

In view of the timescales set in various epochs, it is key to recognise that in the longer-term epochs there is likely to be a requirement for significant decisions affecting choices around the most appropriate and sustainable choices at those locations.

It is important to note that where a SMP policy has determined a policy which requires intervention, such as investment in existing or enhanced defences when ‘hold the line’ has been determined, or movement of the defences in a ‘managed realignment’ situation, this does not mean that funding has been secured for this investment.

Future Asset Management

It is key that Network Rail are involved in coordinating and aligning both strategic planning and asset management against future changes in rising sea levels and the impact of coastal changes on the railway. Especially because Network Rail is not a Coastal Protection Authority but sometimes act as the first line of defence, even though the rail infrastructure was not built for this purpose. However, this leaves Network Rail facing some difficult decisions as to the level of maintenance that needs to be taken to railway assets where additional resilience might be required because the asset is effectively a primary or lesser line of defence.

Other more strategic challenges will also be faced in the future where the shoreline management policy suggests a relocation of rail assets and/or other transport modes to serve the communities impacted.

Shoreline Management Plans

“A shoreline management plan is a large-scale assessment of the risks associated with coastal processes and helps to reduce these

risks to people and the developed historic and natural environment”

Shoreline management plan guidance Volume 1, Defra, 2006

SMP Policy Definition No active intervention (NAI)

A decision not to invest in providing or maintaining coastal defences

Hold the line (HTL)

Maintain or upgrade the standard of protection offered by existing defences.

Managed realignment (MR)

Allowing the shoreline to move backwards or forwards, to realign the natural coastline configuration.

Advance the line (A)

Building new defences on the seaward side of the original defences.

Table 1: SMP Policy definitions.

SMP epoch Periods

Epoch 1 Up to 2025

Epoch 2 2026 – 2055

Epoch 3 2056 – 2105

Table 2: SMP epochs.

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Shoreline Management Plans cont.


The SMPs relevant to the coastal railway assets of Wales & Borders, including links to each are:

• SMP 19 Anchor Head to Lavernock Point (Severn Estuary). Lead: Monmouthshire Council.

• SMP 20 Lavernock Point to St Ann’s Head (South Wales). Lead: Carmarthenshire Council.

• SMP 21 St Ann’s Head to Great Ormes Head (West of Wales). Lead: Pembrokeshire Council.

• SMP 22 Great Ormes Head to Scotland (North West England and North Wales). Lead: Blackpool Borough Council.

Figure 3: Shoreline Management Plan locations and lead local authorities, from the Environment Agency

(Please note this map pre-dates NRW being established)

https://www.severnestuarycoastalgroup.org.uk/

https://www.severnestuarycoastalgroup.org.uk/

http://www.southwalescoast.org/content.asp?id=58

http://www.southwalescoast.org/content.asp?id=58

http://www.westofwalessmp.org/content.asp?nav=23&parent_directory_id=10

http://www.westofwalessmp.org/content.asp?nav=23&parent_directory_id=10

http://www.mycoastline.org.uk/mycoastline/

http://www.mycoastline.org.uk/mycoastline/

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Figure 6: Images of Fairbourne taken during low tide and during Storm Ciara – February 2020

Fairbourne

History

Fairbourne is a village located on the coastline of Cardigan Bay in south west Gwynedd. It sits on an area of low-lying salt marsh to the south of the estuary of the river Mawddach with the Cardigan Bay coastline to the west and Snowdonia mountains to the east.

The village developed following the arrival of the Cambrian Coast railway line in 1855 and a sea wall was built at the time. Today the village is protected from the sea by a natural shingle bank which was reinforced with a crest wall in 1977 and reinstated in 2019 at a cost of £1.2m following storm damage 5 years earlier. The village is protected from the estuary by a tidal embankment that was last strengthened in 2013.

The ground levels in Fairbourne are only around 2.5m above sea level and the average existing spring high tide level experienced several times in a year is 2.61m, meaning the village is highly dependent on the coastal and river flood defences. However, predictions that sea levels will rise by approx. 1m during spring tides and extreme weather events means it will become harder and costlier to protect the village, with increased risk to life should the defences fail.

Figure 4 shows the one in 10-year flood level according to predictions, rising as high as 4.7m above sea level in 2100, with regular high tide predicted to be 3.5m above sea level.

It was therefore deemed when the West of Wales Shoreline Management Plan 2 was published in 2014, alongside predictions and evidence from local monitoring, that in the future it will not be possible to maintain an acceptable standard of protection, nor would it be sustainable or safe for residents to remain in Fairbourne from 2054. This means that flooding caused by climate change would impact the village sooner than other coastal communities across GB.

This has resulted in the local authority coming together with key public bodies and partners, including Network Rail, to produce a framework on addressing the complex issues the community now faces in the future. This has involved the production of a Coastal Adaptation Masterplan which provides a roadmap for the changes needed, highlighting the steps and decisions that will be required in the period to 2054.

Fairbourne

Figure 4: Future predicted sea level rise, taken from ‘Fairbourne: A Framework for the future’

Figure 5: A selection of recent headlines relating to Fairbourne

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What does this mean for the railway?

The Cambrian Coast line has a station at Fairbourne which is situated on an embankment behind the village. The station has just over 40,000 passenger journeys per year and is the seventh busiest on the Cambrian Coast Line between Dovey Junction and Pwllheli. There is no question that a large proportion of these passenger journeys are made by tourists staying in or near the village and day visitors, and the consideration would need to be made if the village was relocated whether a station would still be required if the community and market it serves is no longer there. Other considerations would need to include whether transport provision would be required in the relocated settlement, and also what form of defence the railway would take once the ‘No Active Intervention’ approach is taken for the village.

The policy in Table 3 which refers to the railway line is that for Friog where the policies across the three epochs remain ‘Hold the Line’, this is reflected in the SMP policy development by Gwynedd, recognising the important role of the railway but also the positioning of the railway as a potential future defence if the existing sea defences fail once the Managed Realignment approach and relocation commences in epoch 2 (2055). It is worth noting this could result in the railway becoming potentially a primary or lesser coastal defence, a purpose it does not currently fulfil in that location.

It is also important to note that where any intervention is required to the railway infrastructure in and around Fairbourne, funding above and beyond planned operations, maintenance and renewals has not been secured and will need to be sought depending on what the recommended outcome will be. This would include the cost of relocating the station or enhancing defences, if appropriate.

This means that due to the nature of railway scheme development, planning for options will need to have ideally commenced by the start of Control Period 10 (CP10: 2039-43). Before this it is important to understand these longer-term intentions in planning asset renewals in the area as renewals can typically have a lifespan of at least 40 years, reiterating the importance of aligning plans.

The importance of these considerations has been recognised by Gwynedd County Council in their SMP planning by having a specific action to initiate a Cambrian Coast transport review with Network Rail and Welsh Government, recognising that long term planning of the coastal line will be key in ensuring a collaborative aligned approach to planning for the future.


Fairbourne Moving Forward Site:

http://fairbourne.info/

Fairbourne: A Framework for the Future public consultation:

http://fairbourne.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Fairbourne-AFrameworkfortheFuture.pdf

Fairbourne cont.

Epoch 1 - 2025

Epoch 2 -2055

Epoch 3 -2105

Comments

Ro Wen coast HTL MR NAI This would involve relocation of property owners and businesses from Fairbourne.

Ro Wen Spit MR MR NAI

Fairbourne Embankment

HTL MR NAI

Friog HTL HTL HTL This refers to the railway line behind Fairbourne.

Morfa Mawddach

HTL HTL HTL This would secure a cut off defence to the back of the area to the rear of Fegla Islands.

Fegla HTL MR MR Local consideration would be given to defence of properties on the Fegla Islands and to Arthog.

Key: HTL – Hold the line; A – Advance the line; NAI – No active intervention; MR – Managed realignment

Table 3: SMP2 policy recommendations from Friog Cliffs to Arthog. Taken from the West of Wales SMP.

http://fairbourne.info/




15


The Conwy Valley Line is a relevant example of where the Wales and Borders Route has experienced the effects of extreme whether events and rising sea levels.

The Conwy Valley Line runs between Llandudno Junction and Blaenau Ffestiniog, which is not located on the coast line, yet is still feeling the effects of extreme weather and rising sea levels. The Conwy Valley Line is prone to flooding and has seen flood events in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2020. Previous information and predictions indicate that frequency and extent of flooding will worsen with the impact of climate change.

The Conwy Valley Line has a history of washouts, including in the 1980s which led to permanent speed restrictions that were still in place until recently when some speeds were reinstated during the 2019 repairs following storm Gareth as detailed below. However, in more recent times, the Conwy Valley Line has experienced more washouts, and in shorter successions. At the beginning of 2017, the Conwy Valley Line was washed out following Storm Doris. Extensive works were required to reinstate and repair the line which meant that the line was closed to passengers for a couple of months. These works cost approximately £6m, which reinstated the line to its original state, with no investment for resilience.

Two years later in 2019, the Conwy Valley Line experienced extreme weather again following Storm Gareth. This storm created high tides and a low-pressure system, which led to a record amount of rainfall. The damage was extensive with six miles of track, two stations and eight level crossings requiring significant repair; this meant that the line was closed again, for four months. These significant reactive works cost approximately £12m, double the cost of the repairs undertaken in 2017.

An important aspect of the 2019 repairs to the Conwy Valley Line was sustainability and the use of local suppliers and materials. 9,500 tonnes of rock armour and 3,000 tonnes of ballast were used from nearby quarries. Also, all vegetation and tree stumps were donated to a local recycling centre to create biomass, 91% of washout materials were recycled and approximately 5,000 tonnes of topsoil were reused on these sites. This is an innovative solution to reduce the railways contribution to further climate change, which is a large contributor in the increase of extreme weather events.

During the reinstatement in 2019, engineers campaigned to make the new infrastructure more resilient. The additional culverts and embankments were built to modern standards to be resilient throughout their entire design life of approximately 30 years, to cope with current and future weather events. Engineers requested funding for further resilience work to other parts of the line, but funding was not available at the time.

However, the Conwy Valley Line was impacted again by Storms Ciara and Dennis in February 2020. While the impact of these storms was not as significant as Storm Gareth in 2019, they did nevertheless cause significant damage to parts of the line which were not made more resilient in 2019 following Storm Gareth. This resulted in the line having to close for remedial works with subsequent impact on passengers and the communities the railway serves. Network Rail are working on a design, based on the successful works of 2019 which can be implemented on parts of the line which were impacted by Storms Ciara and Dennis; funding is currently being sought for this activity.

Conwy Valley Line

Figure 7: Washout in 2019 after Storm Gareth

Figure 8: Reinstatement works in 2019 after Storm Gareth

16


The Old Colwyn sea wall is a coastal defence, most of which is owned and maintained by Conwy County Borough Council (CCBC) and part by Network Rail. CCBC are concerned with the condition of this structure and categorised it as high risk, due to the sea wall protecting critical infrastructure for the sustainability of North Wales. Increasing severity and frequency of storm events, combined with the lowering of beach levels, has left the wall susceptible to scour, damage and leading to washout of materials and voiding. However, Network Rail is not concerned about the condition of the structure, which is monitored regularly, and maintenance and reactive work is carried out as required; like in March 2019.

CCBC applied for funding from Welsh Government to progress with a scheme for a rock revetment structure to protect the frontage during storm events; however, grant funding has not been able to be secured. The scheme was not granted funding as it did not meet the required criteria of grant funding, the main driver being the number of properties it protects from flooding and coastal erosion. Welsh Government indicated that if other stakeholders, like Network Rail, are willing to contribute, Welsh Government will fund up to 75% of grant funding through their Coastal Risk Management Programme.

However, Network Rail only has responsibility for the maintenance and inspection for part of the frontage. Work was undertaken by Network Rail in 2014 to the cost of £800,000 to replenish rock armour along with other works, including works to the public steps. Subsequent inspection in 2016 found that the asset was still in a fair condition with little deterioration from the inspection and works undertaken in 2014. There was only a slight worsening in isolated areas, which is expected to be addressed within CP6 with £1.2m of investment, and in total, £21m being investment on all coastal assets. Inspectors also indicate that it will take between 17 and 25 years before the structure deteriorates to a poor condition. However, because Network Rail is only funded to operate, maintain and renew its own infrastructure works, which are identified at the start of each control period, it is difficult for NR to allocate already committed funds to external third-party schemes. NR informed CCBC of this in 2018.

CCBC contacted NR again towards the end of 2019, following information that the sea wall is deteriorating and becoming more vulnerable due to increased frequency and severity of coastal storms. CCBC have been carrying out reactive maintenance on their part of the sea wall but have noted that collaboration is needed to protect the structure. Network Rail will continue to look at ways in which we can work with the local authority to undertake renewal work that will also include assessment of how we can improve in the structure.

Old Colwyn Sea Wall

Figure 9: Damage to Old Colwyn promenade

17


A key example of where the Wales and Borders Route is improving their response to extreme weather and impacts on assets is through the use of the AssetCoast, an award-winning asset management tool which has been produced by Network Rail Wales and Borders Route and JBA Consulting to manage coastal assets. It was created due to the route having the largest number of coastal assets in Network Rail, covering a length of 34 miles and following the acknowledgement that NR needed to improve their knowledge and management of coastal assets.

AssetCoast assesses the physical condition of the assets, seeking to provide a long-term plan for coastal assets, helping monitor their condition, build risk profiles, plan minor and major intervention works, record works that have been carried out and update inspection regimes. This allows asset managers to flag and prioritise assets rather than using the usual cyclical inspections, which has reduced the number of annual detailed inspections and improves worker safety. Information can be viewed by Network Rail and external structural engineers and contractors including; condition score which aligns with Natural Resources Wales’ scoring, location, access to structures, current and historic defects and which shoreline management policy the asset is under. It also assesses the wider risks posed by coastal processes by providing an alert and warning system for assets five days in advance and identifies the assets most at risk from storm events.

AssetCoast represents a step change within Network Rail to manage coastal assets, to ensure a truly holistic approach with asset information that is always up-to-date. It has proven beneficial to provide a collaborative, proactive management of Network Rail’s coastal assets, to help reduce the risk of future devastating damage to our railway. However, this is currently only used for coastal assets, the aim is to create a platform which includes all railway assets. Asset Managers are further understanding how to wider share AssetCoast’s information, collaborating with other public bodies like Natural Resources Wales, Local Authorities and the Welsh Coastal Monitoring Centre to align activities and funding to reduce disruptions to the public.

AssetCoast

Figure 10: An extract from AssetCoast identifying key assets

18


Network Rail is funded by the Department for Transport (DfT) to operate, maintain and renew the railway in five-year cycles; control periods. This settlement does not including funding for enhancing infrastructure which is described below.

For renewal of assets, funding provision enables Network Rail to renew assets on a like for like basis to modern equivalent standards. Assets are identified and prioritised prior to the control period and put into a five-year work bank, alongside any reactive works. However, asset management teams, especially the geotechnical team, have aspirations to build a work bank which considers resilience of assets, focusing of vulnerable areas such as the Severn Estuary and the Cambrian Coast Line.

Enhancement of the network to deliver improvements such as increased network capacity, improved journey times and improved resilience would generally require additional specific funding over and above that included in the five-year spending settlement for OMR (Ops, Maintenance and Renewal), as explained above. Therefore, this means that enhancement funding requires the case for investment to be made, following governments appraisal criteria such as WelTAG (Welsh Government) and WebTAG (UK Government) to fund any incremental enhancements. The main mechanism for enhancement funding is through the DfT’s Rail Network Enhancement Pipeline (RNEP) process. There are five stages within the RNEP process to achieve enhancement funding; demonstrated in Figure 11 below with decisions to proceed following each step to be undertaken before a scheme is accepted and delivered.

The RNEP process follows the Government Green Book Five Case Model, with the cases and questions they seek to answer detailed below:

• Strategic: does the scheme have the right strategic fit?

• Economic: does the scheme maximise public value to society?

• Commercial: is the scheme commercially viable?

• Financial: is the scheme affordable?

• Management: can the scheme be successfully delivered?

Alternatively, funding can also be secured through other avenues, such as third parties (local and regional authorities), Welsh Government and passenger and freight train operating companies.

However, the challenge at locations such as the Conwy Valley Line will be to make the case to enhance the network to provide greater resilience that will reduce future renewal and reinstatement costs following further extreme weather events in the longer term.

Additional information:

RNEP Guidance – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network-enhancements-pipeline

The Green Book – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf

Rail industry funding

Figure 11: The Rail Network Enhancement Pipeline Process

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network-enhancements-pipeline

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network-enhancements-pipeline

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf



19


Shoreline Planning in Cardigan Bay

In commencing this study, initial discussions were held between Network Rail (NR) and Gwynedd County Council regarding their progress in responding to the Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) in their area. The local authority is keen to progress plans in collaboration with key organisations such as NR and were happy to support in the production of this interim report.

Gwynedd County Council have already progressed planning in their area, not least due to the potential impact the changing shoreline and SMP policies are likely to have on their coastal communities across the three epochs.

The SMP which relates to Gwynedd County Council is a particular section of the West of Wales Shoreline Management Plan: Coastal Area D. This is illustrated in Figure 13 on the following page.

Each SMP is broken down into a number of ‘Coastal Areas’ and is then broken down further for ease of planning. This process is explained in Appendix A.

Coastal Area D of the West of Wales SMP covers the coastline of Cardigan Bay, stretching from Sarn Gynfelyn, north of Aberystwyth, to Trwyn Cilan, south of Abersoch. The area covers the major estuaries of the Dyfi, Dysynni and the Mawddach, as well as the southern shoreline of the Llyn Peninsula. There are settlements across the area, including key developments such as Machynlleth and Dolgellau at the head of the Dovey, and others situated at the mouths of the estuaries including Aberdyfi, Tywyn, Barmouth, Porthmadog and Harlech.

The area has an economy based on tourism with many visitors attracted to both the beaches and mountains, particularly with the adjacent Snowdonia National Park. Also nearby are the universities of both Aberystwyth and Bangor resulting in a number of students either visiting or living in the Cardigan Bay area.

The Cambrian Railway line

The railway provides a key transport link in the Cardigan Bay alongside the highway and bus network.

The Cambrian Line runs from Shrewsbury to Dovey Junction, via Machynlleth then splits with the south branch running via Borth to Aberystwyth; and the north branch – the Cambrian Coast Line, follows the Cardigan Bay coast via Barmouth and Porthmadog to Pwllheli. It is primarily a single line railway with passing loops.

Services on the Cambrian operate on a two-hourly frequency continuing beyond Shrewsbury to Birmingham International, with hourly services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury at certain times of the day. Transport for Wales have plans to operate a consistent hourly service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury throughout the day from the end of 2022 and there are also plans to run additional weekend services on the Cambrian Coast Line in the summer to serve the vital tourism and leisure market in the region.

Railway investment planned in the area includes:

• a new station north of Aberystwyth at Bow Street, opening in 2020, funded jointly by the Department for Transport (DfT) and Welsh Government (WG);

• Machynlleth station to benefit from investment in upgraded facilities and tourism link after being identified in Transport for Wales’ station flagship programme;

• a new fleet of trains from the end of 2022 which will be serviced and maintained at the depot at Machynlleth; and

• the upgrade of the Grade II listed Victorian timber viaduct at Barmouth over the River Mawddach is taking place in Control Period 6 (CP6).

Pilot research and study area:

Cardigan Bay and the Cambrian Coast Line

Figure 12: The Cambrian Coast railway

20


Passenger needs

The Cambrian Coast Line from Dovey Junction to Pwllheli, shown in Figure 12, is a scenic rural route with a strong leisure and tourism passenger market which sees a peak in demand over the summer months. The line comprises 26 stations which see almost 1 million passenger journeys per year. Nearly half of these journeys are served by the three busiest stations: Barmouth, Harlech and Tywyn, according to the most recent station usage data.

The line also enables passenger access to the heritage narrow gauge railways such as the Ffestiniog Railway, Welsh Highland Railway and Talyllyn.

Currently no freight operates on the route.

In terms of passenger satisfaction, the table below shows a snapshot of results from the 2019 National Rail Passenger Survey, for areas identified as key drivers of passenger satisfaction. As you can see passengers surveyed on the TfW routes which include the Cambrian, scores were generally slightly higher than the overall TfW scores but similar overall to the national scores.

National overall

TfW overall

TfW Mid Wales & Borders*

Overall satisfaction with journey

82% 79% 81%

Punctuality/reliability (i.e. the train arriving/departing on time)

74% 76% 82%

Level of crowding 71% 70% 69%

Level of satisfaction with the station

80% 71% 86%

* Includes journeys on the Pwllheli/Aberystwyth – Birmingham International, Shrewsbury – Crewe, and Holyhead – Birmingham International lines.

Asset Management

Due to its coastal nature, the infrastructure on the Cambrian Coast Line has often been exposed to damage from the sea and storms. The NR Asset Management team have identified three sites which cause particular challenges and are identified as priority areas in the Control Period 6 (CP6) workbank, scheduled for 2022-23. The anticipated cost for these three schemes is just under £5 million:

• Tywyn: This scheme is to extend the rock armour beyond its current boundary onto land owned by Natural Resources Wales (NRW) to provide more protection to a section of the railway that is currently undefended and regularly receives damage during storms.

• Afon Wen: This scheme is to repair the existing sea wall due to the cliff eroding. Prior to this emergency funding was sought to repair a hole which opened up in the sea wall during Storm Dennis in February 2020.

• Llanaber: This scheme is to refurbish the concrete wall and replenish the rock armour.

All three of these scheme locations are in a Special Area of Conservation, therefore the works will all be subject to a Habitat Regulation Assessment which may require compensation. This could result in a delay to the project if a marine licence cannot be granted and funding for compensation or compensatory land cannot be sourced.

In addition to these schemes there is also a number of smaller maintenance jobs which are set out annually over the five-year control period. These equate to over £5 million and may also be subject to Habitat Regulation Assessments depending on the nature of the schemes and their location.


Cont.

21


Aligning to the Shoreline Management Plan

Gwynedd County Council is the lead local authority working on the action plan for this section of the coastline, working with key partners including other local authorities and infrastructure owners and service providers including Welsh Water, Natural Resources Wales and NR amongst others.

As explained above the West of Wales SMP is broken down into a number of larger Coastal Areas. It is then broken down further into ‘Policy Development Zones’ then ‘Management Zones’ then ‘Policy Units’. All of these are geographical sections which are divided as such for ease of planning. A flow chart explaining this process is shown in Appendix A.

Each ‘Management Area’ then has an action plan associated with it. Gwynedd County Council have assisted with this interim study by interpreting the action plan into those actions which have relevance to NR. Appendix B details all of these actions relevant to NR alongside the policy recommendation for each Policy Unit and epoch.

As shown in the detailed tables in Appendix B, there are several areas along the coast which are likely to see a policy change to Managed Retreat or No Active Intervention in Epoch 2 (2055). Further planning needs to take place alongside Gwynedd County Council and other stakeholders to understand which of these will have a significant impact on the railway. This is vital as railway enhancement projects typically commence detailed planning 10-15 years in advance, with the potential for strategic network planning to take place even earlier. This would mean areas likely to require changes in Epoch 2 would require strategic planning to commence in Control Period 8 (2029-34) or 9 (2035-39) to enable sufficient time for a scheme to be developed.

Some overall considerations which were identified in the SMP action planning which need to include NR are:

• Collaborative adaptation planning needs to take place cross-organisation for the area.

• Review of transport planning needs to take place for the area

• Cambrian Coast transport review required over long-term planning of the railway.

In light of these actions, Gwynedd County Council have recognised that Network Rail were not part of the original action planning which took place as part of the SMP production and discussions have taken place to commence a more collaborative way forward in planning both adaptation and coastal schemes. This will no doubt progress as production of the final document commences.


The National Rail Passenger Survey Autumn 2019:

https://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/27181442/Main-Report-Autumn-2019-240120.pdf


Cont.

Figure 13: Coastal Area D from the West of Wales SMP




22


Wales and the national picture

The Wales and Borders Route is very committed to improve their resilience against weather and climate change events, and in most ways ahead of the rest of the country. The Wales and Borders Route is improving resilience through route-specific objectives and understanding risks by assessing their weather-related vulnerabilities.

Up to WRCCA Pg 12.

As shown above, sustainable development and mitigations against climate change are extremely important; governments, businesses and people need to take action. Nationally, Network Rail is demonstrating leadership within the rail industry to take action. Network Rail is currently working on a national vision and strategy for the next 30 years. It is important that the railway industry is strategically thinking about future epoch’s because the solutions needed may take many years to implement to ensure the most appropriate and sustainable transport modes are in place to support communities and economies.

In order for the railway to adapt against weather resilience, Network Rail has created a Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation policy. The aim of this policy is to help railway infrastructure to be resilient against future weather conditions and ensure that infrastructure and services recover rapidly after extreme weather events. These initiatives will improve performance and safety during extreme weather, save money through reduced compensation and repair costs and will ultimately enhance the railways reputation and gain trust from passengers and freight customers to use the railway, even during extreme weather.

Other relevant associated workstreams

A National Picture

There are several activities ongoing from a national perspective relating to how the industry is reacting to environmental issues and the challenge of climate change, some of which will be outlined in this section.

Network Rail published a national Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation (WRCCA) Strategy in 2017 which sets out the aim to provide a future rail network that is safe and more resilient to the effects of weather, now and in the future. Planning is based on UK climate projections to 2080.

The strategy incorporates the following strategic outcomes:

- Infrastructure able to withstand the impact of future weather conditions

- Rapid recovery from the impacts of adverse and extreme weather events

- Improved performance and safety during adverse and extreme weather conditions

- Financial savings through reduced compensation payments and repair costs

- Enhanced reputation and trust in the railway’s ability to manage weather events.

Following on from the publication of the national WRCCA Strategy, Wales and Borders have also published a local plan for CP6 up to 2024. There are also plans to build upon these with an update to the WRCCA strategy and a national Rail Industry Resilience Review to follow in 2020-21.

Nationally Network Rail are also building a high level sustainability strategy which will look ahead 30 years considering the response to challenges in all areas of sustainable development, and supporting routes and regions to develop their own aligned sustainability plans and incorporating potential political, technological, social, economic and legal drivers of change.

An example of how Network Rail is responding to a legal driver of change is in commencing a Traction Decarbonisation Network Study, seeking to understand ways the railway can support the UK target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Transport for Wales have committed to delivering a greener fleet of new trains as part of their rail services contract, with plans including the introduction of bi-mode and tri-mode trains on the busy core valley lines into Cardiff, and the Rail Delivery Group is supporting the industry in promoting modal shift to rail and the vision of achieving a carbon free railway.

https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/component/arkhive/?task=file.download&id=469776117

Summary

The key priority for this interim document was to undertake research and information gathering on all of the complex issues which surround shoreline planning for the coastal railway in Wales and Borders, and how this interacts with regional and local shoreline planning.

It has also enabled Network Rail to better understand the implications and challenges of adapting to climate change and future changes in coastal processes such as sea level rise, and how we build this into future strategic planning of the rail network.

This interim document summarises the following:

• Climate change is already having a significant impact on today’s railway through evermore frequent extreme weather events

• Challenges exist today in balancing railway maintenance and renewal works in areas protected for diverse habitats

• Network Rail is already actively engaging with local authorities, coastal groups and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) in shoreline management planning activity. This continued engagement will be fundamental to delivering the policies set out in the Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) given that coastal railway assets are often a primary or lesser line of defence

• Areas have already been identified where further detailed strategic network planning will need to take place in the future to build into local authority plans, including at areas such as Fairbourne on the Cambrian Coast

Roadmap to the final publication

Following the production of this interim document, Network Rail will use the information gathered to facilitate broader awareness and discussions with rail industry, funders and specifiers as well as other key stakeholders and influencers in shoreline and habitat planning policy.

Going forward in consultation with such bodies, the intention is to produce a more comprehensive guidance document in collaboration with all coastal groups and key stakeholders covering all the coastal railway in Wales and Borders with an intended publication date of Spring 2021. The document will be published bilingually.

The final document will also seek to consider the further impact of habitat compensation requirements on Network Rail maintenance and renewals, with a better understanding of the legal perspective of the regulations and differences in interpretation and governance between England and Wales, and any related short-term funding gaps which exist.

Additionally, the final document will look to provide a detailed assessment of the impact of the SMPs on all coastal railway assets. The purpose of this will be to map the SMP policy against Network Rail’s asset management plans and also to provide an early indicative view as to when future rail policy planning and strategic decisions will be required for parts of the network impacted by climate change and rising sea levels.

Appendix B sets out the actions, comments and recommendations relating to the Cardigan Bay area, which have come from the West of Wales SMP, and in certain cases these provide some recommendations for how the railway might be affected in the future. The work to be undertaken for the final document will build on this early evidence base.

Acknowledgements

Network Rail thank the organisations that have been involved in the Study including but not limited to:

• Gwynedd County Council

• Natural Resources Wales

• Welsh Government

• Welsh Local Government Agency

Summary and roadmap to final publication

https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/component/arkhive/?task=file.download&id=469776117

23


Appendix A: Flowchart explaining how the Shoreline Management Plans were developed

Policy per epoch i.e. 2025: MR / 2055: MR / 2105: MR

Shoreline Management Plans (22 geographical across GB) i.e. SMP 21: St Ann’s Head to Great Ormes Head (West of Wales)

Coastal Area Geographical section divided as such for convenience of discussion and policy development.

i.e. Coastal Area D: Sarn Gynfelyn to Trwyn Cilan

Policy Development Zone (PDZ) A length of coastline defined for the purpose of assessing all issues and interactions to examine and develop

management scenarios. i.e. PDZ10: Sarn Gynfelyn to Tonfanau

Management Area (MA) A geographical collection of Policy Units (PU) that are interdependent and should therefore be managed

collectively. i.e. MA19 Dyfi South: Upper Borth to Machynlleth

Policy Unit (PU) Geographical section of coastline for which a certain coastal defence management policy has been defined.

i.e. PU 10.1: Upper Borth

24


Below details each Policy Development Zone under Coastal Area D, what the SMP policies are under each Epoch for each Management Area beneath it, and key actions, comments and recommendations relating to Network Rail taken from the SMP Action Plan.

Policy Development Zone 10 – Dyfi

Appendix B: Detailed Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) Policies for the Cardigan Bay Area

(Coastal Area D of the West of Wales SMP)

25


Management Area 19 – Dyfi South – Upper Borth to Machynlleth

Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which need to be considered by Network Rail:

• Recommended that adaptation planning takes place for the entire area with all partners.

• Management of the area would depend significantly on the continued need to sustain the railway line, albeit not necessarily in the same location.

• Due to continued sea level rise, there will be key moments when substantial investment decisions would need to be made, at such times the opportunity should be taken to consider relocating the railway line to a more sustainable position.

• Review of transport planning in the area should take place, considering sustainable transport for the whole region.

• Recommendation that in Epoch 3 the railway line would need to be relocated along the main inner estuary frontage alongside consideration of the impact on the local highway network.

• Recommendation that the railway is sustained within the upper estuary, across Dyfi Junction and Machynlleth.

Management Area 20 – Dyfi North, Tywyn and the Dysynni


• It is recognised the important transport network in the area would need to be sustained however there is concern that continued defence to the railway across the Dysynni is going to become difficult to sustain and may present issues in providing a coherent approach to that taken at Tywyn in the south. The plan recommends that the approach to sustain the railway is reconsidered with the beneficial development opportunity of a more naturally functioning estuary mouth and reduced impacts on habitat loss.

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 - Epoch 2 - Epoch 3 - Local Authority

Upper Borth 10.1 MR MR MR Ceredigion

Borth Village 10.2 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion

Borth Golf Course 10.3 HTL MR MR Ceredigion

Ynyslas 10.4 MR NAI NAI Ceredigion

Afon Leri 10.5 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion

Cors Fochno 10.6 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion

Dyfi Junction 10.7 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion

Morben Hall 10.8 HTL HTL HTL Ceredigion

Machynlleth 10.9 HTL MR MR Ceredigion

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 - Epoch 2 - Epoch 3 - Local Authority

Pennal Valley 10.10 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Gogarth 10.11 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Dyfi North 10.12 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Aberdyfi 10.13 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Aberdyfi Dunes 10.14 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Penllyn 10.15 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Tywyn 10.16 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Dysynni Railway 10.17 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Dysynni Estuary 10.18 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Tonfanau 10.19 MR MR NAI Gwynedd

26


Policy Development Zone 11 - Barmouth and the Mawddach

27


Management Area 21 – Southern Cliffs


• Agree form of defence to minimise impact on designated sections of the coast.

• Although the general aim of the plan in this area is to allow continued natural development and erosion of the shoreline, it is recognised that there is a need to maintain the function of the railway and road and therefore suggests a policy of Hold the Line where these assets are at risk.

Management Area 22 – Mawddach Entrance – South


• Relocation and adaption planning

• Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long term planning of coastal railway

• Although there are issues of long term sustainability for Fairbourne, it would be considered possible to maintain the railway.

• The policy for the railway and the land behind would be to Hold the Line and there is an opportunity to provide defence to areas behind the railway on currently undeveloped land.

• This policy would be extended to include where the railway links through to the bridge and the old railway would probably need to be improved as a flood defence.

Management Area 24 & 25 – Barmouth & DYFFRYN ARDUDWY


• Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway

• Intent is to maintain the core areas of Barmouth and the railway line past Llanaber.

• Llanaber Point is considered strategically important in maintaining a sustainable defence along both the Barmouth frontages and to the north. As such a broader management of the shoreline is in line with the specific management of risk to the railway.

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority

Rola 11.1 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Llwyngwril 11.2 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Friog Cliffs 11.3 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd


o Wen Coast 11.4 HTL MR NAI Gwynedd

Ro Wen Split 11.5 MR MR NAI Gwynedd

Fairbourne Embankment 11.6 HTL MR NAI Gwynedd

Friog 11.7 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Morfa Mawddach 11.8 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Fegla 11.9 HTL MR MR Gwynedd


Barmouth South 11.14 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Barmouth North 11.15 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Llanaber 11.16 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd


Egryn Marsh 11.17 MR NAI NAI Gwynedd

Sunny Sands 11.18 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Islawffordd 11.19 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Morfa Dyffryn 11.20 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

28


Policy Development Zone 12 – Coastal Snowdonia

29


Management Area 26 ARTRO ESTUARY



• It is recognised that maintaining the strategic rail and road routes through the area are considered essential and there is little opportunity to move these routes, however, equally, defence of these routes is going to become significantly more difficult.

• Key elements of the plan would be to continue to defend the main road and railway line.

• The preferred plan is for re-examining the whole behaviour of the estuary and developing a sustainable development plan involving the highway authority, the railway and the National Park planners.

Management Area 27: HARLECH AND THE DWYRYD ESTUARY



• Hold the Line is seen as being sustainable over the first epoch, the railway being one of the key justifications for this. By epoch 3 it seems unlikely that defence of the whole area would be sustainable with sea level rise.

• The policy for epochs two and three is Managed Realignment, the aim of which would be to establish a set back line of defence either at the railway line or along the ridge just north of Talsarnau.


Mochras 12.1 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Artro Southern Split 12.2 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Artro Estuary South 12.3 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Artro Estuary East 12.4 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Llandanwg Dunes 12.5 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Llandanwg Headland 12.6 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Policy Location Policy Unit

Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority

Morfa Harlech 12.7 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Harlech Valley 12.8 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Talsarnau 12.9 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Briwet and Dwyryd Gorge 12.10 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Upper Dwyryd Estuary 12.11 MR NAI NAI Gwynedd

Penrhyndeudraeth Headland 12.12 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

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Management Area 28 & 29: The Cob and Porthmadog and CRICCIETH EAST AND EASTERN SHINGLE BANKS



• Recommendation that realignment of the railway is considered, however it may be possible to increase the overall control of the frontage in such a manner that the shingle bank would still continue to provide adequate defence. This would depend on the level of the railway line.

Management Area 30: CRICCIETH WEST


• Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway.

• The longer-term intent to allow the frontage to develop more naturally in the future may put the railway line at risk from increased flooding, with the potential that major works might be required in epoch three to sustain this route. This clearly has implications with respect to defence of the railway at Afon Wen. The potential for relocating the railway is recognised to be outside the scope of the SMP.


The Cob and Porthmadog 12.13 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Borth-y-Gest 12.14 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Samson Bay 12.15 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Morfa Bychan 12.16 MR MR MR Gwynedd



Criccieth Shingle 12.17 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Criccieth Harbour 12.18 HTL HTL MR Gwynedd

Castle Headland 12.19 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd



Criccieth West 12.20 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Y Dryll 12.21 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Dwyfor 12.22 MR NAI NAI Gwynedd

Glanllynnau Cliffs 12.23 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Afon Wen 12.24 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Pen y chain East 12.25 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

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Policy Development Zone 13 – The South Llŷn Bays – Pen y Chain to Trwyn Cilan

Management Area 31: PWLLHELI AREA



Pen y chain and Western section of Bay

13.1 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Abererch 13.2 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Glan y Don 13.3 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Pwlheli Harbour and Entrance 13.4 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Pwlheli Centre 13.5 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

South Beach 13.6 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Golf Course 13.7 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Traeth Crugan 13.8 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Llanbedrog 13.9 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd



• The railway line poses the most immediate risk with the potential of flooding and erosion. Based on the objectives there is a continuing need to maintain this important national transport route. However, to do so would impose a severe constraint on the sustainable management of the shoreline.

• Potentially, if re-routing the railway line to the back of the flood plain was unacceptable, then consideration would need to be given to establishing the line on some form of trestle bridge over the new estuary.

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Appendix C: SMP policy maps for Wales for each epoch from Natural Resources Wales

Key: Hold the Line Managed Retreat No Active Intervention

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Summary

Draft document – key priority – information gathering

Summarise key points (table or bullets?) Para for each

- Climate change./sea level

- SMPs – impact on railway

- Habitat

- Impact on railway asset management plans & alignment where railway assets act as coastal defences

- Future strategic considerations for the coastal railway network

Roadmap to the final

Repeat purpose of document

Over the next year we will seek to…

Help inform future required strategic planning and funding decisions.

Which will now be used to widen discussions with industry, funders and wider stakeholders such as local authorities, about how the railway needs to plan for the future and align with SMPs.

This will need to consider some immediate and shorter term funding gaps

Impact of NR renewals – habitat compensation –

- Better understand legal perspective and differences in interpretation between NRW and EA – obligations

- Hold further discussions with NRW/LAs / Funders

Need to extend to other SMP areas and obtain their buy in– key contacts via Coastal Group forum

Term Meaning

ATL Advance the line: Policy decision to build new defences on the seaward side of the original defences.

CMSP CMSP is Network Rail’s response to the Shaw Review (2016) Continuous Modular Strategic Planning, part of the Long-Term Planning Process. Recommendation noting the requirement to better plan the railway based on customer, passenger and freight needs.

Connectivity Opportunity to travel between two locations and associated journey time.

Control Period 5 (CP5) Network Rail is funded in five-year periods. Control Period 5 is the funding period from April 2014 to March 2019.



Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

DfT Department for Transport

EA Environment Agency

Epoch The periods of time which are reviewed in SMPs. Epoch 1: 0-20 years Epoch 2: 20-50 years Epoch 3: 50-100 years

ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management System. A system for managing train movements using ETCS (European Train Control System) to signal trains and GSMR (Global System for Mobile Communications – Railway: an international wireless communications standard for railway communication and applications) to communicate with trains.

ETCS European Train Control System. A new signalling control and train protection system.

FCERM Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management

GRIP Governance for Railway Investment Projects. A Network Rail standard for project managing changes to the infrastructure.

HTL Hold the line: Policy decision to maintain or change the existing defences.

Appendix D: Glossary

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Appendix D: Glossary

Term Meaning

MR Managed realignment: Policy decision to allow the shoreline to move backwards or forwards, with management to control or limit movement.

NAI No active intervention: Policy decision to stop investment in coastal defence or operation.

NHCP National Habitat Creation Programme

NR Network Rail

NRW Natural Resources Wales

OMR Operations, maintenance and renewals.

ORR Office of Rail and Road. The safety and economic regulator for the rail industry in Great Britain.

RDG Rail Delivery Group

RNEP Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline

SBP Strategic Business Plan

SMP Shoreline Management Plan

SO System Operator

WG Welsh Government

WelTAG Welsh Government, Transport Appraisal Guidance

WebTAG UK Government, Transport Appraisal Guidance

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