Understanding the New AYP

NH Department of Education - 8/25/06 (version 9)

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Understanding the New AYPTim Kurtz, NH DoE

271-3846 [email protected] Wiswell, NHDoE

271-3828, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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2006 AYP Results(impacts school year 2006-2007)

AYP Definition

Grades Testing Data with dates Report Issued

School

District

State

New definition

Elementary and Middle Grades

Gr. 3-8 NECAP (Oct 2005)

Gr. 2-7 NH-Alt (2004-2005)

Aug. 28

2006

10:00 AM

District Old definition

High School Gr. 10 NHEIAP (May 2005)

Gr. 10 NH-Alt (2004-2005)

Aug. 28

2006 10:00 AM

School

State

Old definition

High School Gr. 10 NHEIAP (May 2006)

Gr. 10 NH-Alt (2005-2006)

Aug. 28

2006 10:00 AM


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Basic AYP Decisions

• Calculate “Other Indicator” for the school

• Calculate Participation rate for the school and each subgroup

• Calculate Performance for the school and each subgroup– Calculate performance– If not OK, then check confidence interval– If still not OK, then check safe harbor


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Old/New AYP ComparisonOld Definition New Definition

Participation 95% (assigned to school that gave the test)

No change (note that NECAP and NH-Alt were administered in different years)

Performance

Basic calc.

Percent “Basic or above” Index – full credit for levels 3 and 4, partial credit for levels 1 and 2

Performance Assigned to school where student took the test

Assigned to school where student was taught the tested material

AMO (Annual Measurable Objectives)

Starting points based on May 2002 NHEIAP, three year intervals to 100%

Starting points based on October 2005 NECAP, two year intervals to 100%

Confidence Interval

99% CI based on Binomial distribution (AMO, size)

99% CI based on average within school variance (AMO, size)

Safe Harbor 10% reduction in percent of students at Novice

Equi-percentile proxy this year for 10% – in addition, “other indicator” will be evaluated when safe harbor is calculated

Cell Size

Performance

11 per group 11 per group


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Old/New AYP ComparisonOld Definition New Definition

Other Indicator 90% Attendance (E&M Schools)

75% Graduation rate (HS)

Same, but now attendance rate based on EOY (End Of Year) district submissions

Withdrew after Oct 2 n/a Excused from testing for affected content areas (must be coded on SRB)

ELL and in the US less than 10 months

Counted as participating in reading even if they didn’t.

Not included in performance for reading or math.

No change (must be coded on Student Response Booklet - SRB)

Medical Emergencies

n/a Excused from testing for affected content areas (must be state approved)

Enrolled after Oct 2 Not included in any way same

Placement w| Private Providers

Affects only state report Same (for now…)

Out-of-Level Testing n/a Not allowed


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Grades 3-8 NECAPAchievement Levels

NECAP Cut points• Commissioners from VT, RI, and NH adopted cut points on January 20• Proficiency at the student level includes performance at achievement levels 3 and 4.

Achievement Levels: • Level 1: Substantially Below Proficient• Level 2: Partially Proficient• Level 3: Proficient• Level 4: Proficient with Distinction

Scaled Scores will be reported as a 3-digit number where the first digit is the grade level and the other part will be a score 00 to 80 (reported as whole numbers at the student level). X40 is the reported cut point for Proficient.

Grade 3: 300-380Grade 4: 400-480Grade 5: 500-580Grade 6: 600-680Grade 7: 700-780Grade 8: 800-880


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New AYP Definition – some details

An External AYP Task Force met to make recommendations to the Department. After review by the Internal AYP Task Force, we have arrived at the following decisions:– Racial categories (no change)

• Defined by BOY (Beginning of Year) submissions

– Other Indicator (no change)• Attendance Rate (90% or improvement over previous year)• Calculated from EOY submissions

– Participation assigned to testing school– Performance assigned to teaching school– Full Academic Year (FAY) for performance calculations

• In the future, October 1 of teaching year• 310 half days of enrollment is the proxy this year


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New AYP Definition: Minimum n(minimum number of students in group required in order to

perform calculation)

• 95% Participation rate: 40 for each group within testing grades in school or district

• 75% Graduation rate: 40 within school or district• 90% Attendance rate: 40 within school or district

– Includes all grades 1-8 in the school or district

• Performance targets:11 for each group within testing grades in school or district


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New AYP Def: Index SystemModified Index System provides partial credit for scores

below Proficient. A school’s index score will be the average of all student index points assigned to the school.

Proficiency Level Index Points

Level 1: Substantially below Proficient

X00 0

1a 20

1b 40

Level 2: Partially Proficient2a 60

2b 80

Level 3: Proficient

Level 4: Proficient with Distinction100


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Scaled Scores for each IndexNECAP

Reading

0 1a 1b 2a 2b 3 and 4

300 301 to 321 322 to 330 331 to 335 336 to 339 340 to 380

400 401 to 421 422 to 430 431 to 435 436 to 439 440 to 480

500 501 to 519 520 to 529 530 to 534 535 to 539 540 to 580

600 601 to 617 618 to 628 629 to 634 635 to 639 640 to 680

700 701 to 717 718 to 728 729 to 734 735 to 739 740 to 780

800 801 to 815 816 to 827 828 to 833 834 to 839 840 to 880

Mathematics

0 1a 1b 2a 2b 3 and 4

300 301 to 323 324 to 331 332 to 335 336 to 339 340 to 380

400 401 to 421 422 to 430 431 to 435 436 to 439 440 to 480

500 501 to 525 526 to 532 533 to 536 537 to 539 540 to 580

600 601 to 625 626 to 632 633 to 636 637 to 639 640 to 680

700 701 to 727 728 to 733 734 to 736 737 to 739 740 to 780

800 801 to 827 828 to 833 834 to 836 837 to 839 840 to 880


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Raw Score to Performance IndexConversion table for NH-Alt

* The lowest score any scoreable portfolio can earn is 13 raw score points.

** A raw score of 0 is only possible if the portfolio submitted was judged to be unscoreable by two trained and independent scorers.

Portfolio Raw Score Points Earned

Proficiency Level Performance Index Level

Performance Index Points Assigned

47-52 Proficient with Distinction 4 100

38-46 Proficient 3 100

34-37 Partially Proficient 2b 80

29-33 Partially Proficient 2a 60

21-28 Substantially Below Proficient 1b 40

13*-20 Substantially Below Proficient 1a 20

0** Un-scoreable (SBP) 0 0


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New AYP Def: Starting Points

Starting Points: For each content area separately, create a new baseline via the 20% method outlined in NCLB– Determine index for each school – Rank schools by each index– Identify at “20th percentile” school

“20th percentile” school: the school where 20% of the students in the whole list attend that school or a school with a lower index.

– That school’s index is the starting point

Starting points: Reading 82, Mathematics 76


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New AYP Def: AMOs

Annual Measurable Objectives

2 year intervals, equally spaced to 100Grades 3-8 Index

ELA Mathematics

Starting Point (2005-2006) 82 76

2006 – 2007 82 76

2007 – 2008 86 82

2008 – 2009 86 82

2009 – 2010 91 88

2010 – 2011 91 88

2011 – 2012 95 94

2012 – 2013 95 94

2013 – 2014 100 100


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An Index Example: Two schoolsTwo schools, both with 180 students tested and 61.1% of

their students scoring proficient or better in reading.READING Maple Street CS Pine Street MS

Level points # of students

total # of students

total

X00 0 30 0 5 0

Level 1a 20 20 400 5 100

Level 1b 40 10 400 10 400

Level 2a 60 5 300 20 1200

Level 2b 80 5 400 30 2400

Level 3 100 60 6000 60 6000

Level 4 100 50 5000 50 5000

Sum 180 12500 180 15100

Index 69.4 83.9


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New AYP Def: Confidence Intervals

1. Calculate the within-school variance for each school.

2. Calculate the average within-school variance for the state.

3. Calculate the standard error for each group

4. Calculate the 99% confidence interval for each group

1)_(

var2

studentindex

schoolstudentschool n

indexmeanindex

schools

school

naverage var

var

groupnaverage

groupSE var

groupgroup SECI *333.2

Where:indexstudent = index score for the student

mean_indexschool = average index score for the school to which the student belongs

nindexstudent= the number of student index scores for the school of interest

nschools = the number of schools, and ngroup = number of students in the group

For each subject separately:

For NHReading: 603.38615Math: 800.72625

The smallest index allowed with the CI is: AMO – CIgroup


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New AYP Def: Safe Harbor“Equi-percentile” comparison

200 240 300

The general question is: What score on NECAP corresponds to 240 on NHEIAP? Percent of students in Grade 3 & 6 combined score Basic or above in Reading on May 2004 NHEIAP = 73.3% (Math: 77.9%)

X00 X80X??

Answer: 73.3% of students in Grades 3-8 combined score at or above X37 in Reading and X34 in Mathematics on Oct. 2005 NECAP


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Safe Harbor – an example

For reading, the percent of students scoring below 240 on the May 2004 NHEIAP will be compared to the percent of students scoring below X37 on the October 2005 NECAP.

May 2004 NHEIAP October 2005 NECAP SH Goal

(’04 % below) x

(.90)

Safe Harbor?

Is (‘05 % below)

< or =

(SH Goal)?

#

Tested

#

< 240

‘04

% below

#

Tested

#

< X37

‘05

% below

Park Ave. ES

200 160 80 500 380 76 80 x .9

= 72

Is 76 < 72

No

Gould School

100 70 70 400 250 62.5 70 x .9

= 63

Is 62.5 < 63

Yes


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Special Note on Data

• Reports based on student demographic and program participation data reported by districts– EOY (End of Year) files– BOY (Beginning of Year) files– SPEDIS, ESL, F&R systems

• Known Issues– SPEDIS /SASID Match– FAY (Full Academic Year) – see next page

• Review AYP Reports carefully– Check FAY– Check Educational Disability


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Schools with Known FAY issuesReports for these schools and for their districts are based on assuming all student

included these schools’ EOY files were enrolled for a full academic year. In fact, not all students in these schools were enrolled for a full academic year.

A. Crosby Kennett Middle SchoolEpping Middle SchoolHenry Wilson Memorial SchoolEdward Fenn SchoolCarpenter Elementary SchoolCrescent Lake SchoolEffingham Elementary SchoolKingswood Regional Middle SchoolNew Durham Elementary SchoolOssipee Central SchoolHaverhill Cooperative Middle School

Woodsville Elementary SchoolMemorial Middle SchoolHanover Street SchoolLebanon Junior High SchoolMt. Lebanon SchoolSacred Heart Public SchoolSchool Street SchoolSeminary Hill SchoolMcDonough SchoolNew Boston Central SchoolIber Holmes Gove Middle SchoolLamprey River Elementary School


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AYP Results and Resources

• www.ed.state.nh.us– AYP Reports at grades 3-8– AYP Data Explained– AYP Look-up Table Explained– AYP Lookup Table (pdf and Excel formats)– Csv file of all results– Understanding the New AYP (ppt)– Separate HS District Reports (old AYP def)


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AYP – Work for Next year• Growth:

– Measures of Growth at the student level to provide support for the Commissioner’s Follow the Child initiative

– NH DoE submitted a letter of interest to USED February 17– Taskforce met on February 22, March 28, April 18, May 9, Aug. 22– NH DoE intends to submit a proposal to USED by November 1, 2006

• Out of District Students in Private Placements– How to include students placed in out-of-district private placements?

• Writing and Science– Neither Writing nor Science is scheduled to be a part of AYP at this time

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Understanding the New AYP

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