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2. Team for the preparation ofHuman Development Report 2007/2008Director and lead authorKevin WatkinsResearch and statisticsCecilia Ugaz (Deputy Director and chief editor), Liliana Carvajal, Daniel Coppard, RicardoFuentes Nieva, Amie Gaye, Wei Ha, Claes Johansson, Alison Kennedy (Chief of Statistics),Christopher Kuonqui, Isabel Medalho Pereira, Roshni Menon, Jonathan Morse and Papa Seck.Production and translationCarlotta Aiello and Marta JaksonaOutreach and communicationsMaritza Ascencios, Jean-Yves Hamel, Pedro Manuel Moreno and Marisol Sanjines (Headof Outreach)The Human Development Report Ofce (HDRO): The Human Development Report isthe product of a collective effort. Members of the National Human Development Report Unit(NHDR) provide detailed comments and advice throughout the research process. They also link theReport to a global research network in developing countries. The NHDR team comprises SharmilaKurukulasuriya, Mary Ann Mwangi and Timothy Scott. The HDRO administrative team makesthe office function and includes Oscar Bernal, Mamaye Gebretsadik, Melissa Hernandez and FeJuarez-Shanahan. Operations are managed by Sarantuya Mend. 3. ForewordWhat we do today about climate change has consequences that will last a century ormore. The part of that change that is due to greenhouse gas emissions is not revers-ible in the foreseeable future. The heat trapping gases we send into the atmospherein 2008 will stay there until 2108 and beyond. We are therefore making choicestoday that will affect our own lives, but even more so the lives of our children andgrandchildren. This makes climate change different and more difficult than otherpolicy challenges.Climate change is now a scientifically estab-the same effects of climate change, the threatlished fact. The exact impact of greenhouse gasof global warming could still lead to substantialemission is not easy to forecast and there is a lotdamage to human well-being and prosperity byof uncertainty in the science when it comes to the end of this century.predictive capability. But we now know enoughIn reality, the world is a heterogeneous place:to recognize that there are large risks, poten-people have unequal incomes and wealth andtially catastrophic ones, including the melt-climate change will affect regions very differ-ing of ice-sheets on Greenland and the Westently. This is, for us, the most compelling reasonAntarctic (which would place many countriesto act rapidly. Climate change is already startingunder water) and changes in the course of theto affect some of the poorest and most vulner-Gulf Stream that would bring about drastic cli-able communities around the world. A world-matic changes. wide average 3 centigrade increase (compared Prudence and care about the future of our to preindustrial temperatures) over the comingchildren and their children requires that we act decades would result in a range of localized in-now. This is a form of insurance against possiblycreases that could reach twice as high in somevery large losses. The fact that we do not knowlocations. The effect that increased droughts,the probability of such losses or their likely exact extreme weather events, tropical storms and seatiming is not an argument for not taking insur-level rises will have on large parts of Africa, onance. We know the danger exists. We know the many small island states and coastal zones willdamage caused by greenhouse gas emissions is be inflicted in our lifetimes. In terms of aggre-irreversible for a long time. We know it is grow-gate world GDP, these short term effects maying with every day of inaction.not be large. But for some of the worlds poorest Even if we were living in a world where all people, the consequences could be apocalyptic.people had the same standard of living and wereIn the long run climate change is a mas-impacted by climate change in the same way, we sive threat to human development and in somewould still have to act. If the world were a sin-places it is already undermining the interna-gle country, with its citizens all enjoying simi-tional communitys efforts to reduce extremelar income levels and all exposed more or less topoverty. H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 v 4. Violent conflicts, insufficient resources, lack While we pursue adaptation we must start of coordination and weak policies continue toto reduce emissions and take other steps at miti- slow down development progress, particularly gation so that the irreversible changes already in Africa. Nonetheless in many countries there underway are not further amplified over the have been real advances. For instance, Viet Namnext few decades. If mitigation does not start in has been able to halve poverty and achieve uni-earnest right now, the cost of adaptation twenty versal primary education way ahead of the 2015 or thirty years from now will become prohibi- target. Mozambique has also managed to signif- tive for the poorest countries. icantly reduce poverty and increase school en- Stabilizing greenhouse emissions to limit rollment as well as improving the rates of child climate change is a worthwhile insurance strat- and maternal mortality.egy for the world as a whole, including the rich-This development progress is increasingly est countries, and it is an essential part of our going to be hindered by climate change. So weoverall fight against poverty and for the Millen- must see the fight against poverty and the fight nium Development Goals. This dual purpose of against the effects of climate change as interre-climate policies should make them a priority for lated efforts. They must reinforce each other andleaders around the world. success must be achieved on both fronts jointly. But having established the need for limiting Success will have to involve a great deal of ad- future climate change and for helping the most aptation, because climate change is still goingvulnerable adapt to what is unavoidable, one has to affect the poorest countries significantly even to move on and identify the nature of the policies if serious efforts to reduce emissions start im- that will help us get the results we seek. mediately. Countries will need to develop theirSeveral things can be said at the outset: own adaptation plans but the international First, non-marginal changes are needed, given community will need to assist them.the path the world is on. We need big changesResponding to that challenge and to the and ambitious new policies. urgent request from leaders in developingSecond, there will be significant short term countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, costs. We have to invest in limiting climate UNEP and UNDP launched a partnership inchange. There will be large net benefits over Nairobi during the last climate convention intime, but at the beginning, like with every in- November 2006. The two agencies commit-vestment, we must be willing to incur the costs. ted to provide assistance in reducing vulnera- This will be a challenge for democratic gover- bility and building the capacity of developing nance: political systems will have to agree to countries to more widely reap the benefits ofpay the early costs to reap the long term gains. the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Leadership will require looking beyond elec- in areas such as the development of cleanertoral cycles. and renewable energies, climate proofing and We are not too pessimistic. In the fight fuel-switching schemes.against the much higher inflation rates of theThis partnership, that will enable the UN distant past, democracies did come up with the system to act promptly in response to the needsinstitutions such as more autonomous central of governments trying to factor in climate-banks and policy pre-commitments that al- change impacts into their investment decisions,lowed much lower inflation to be achieved de- constitutes a living proof of the United Nationsspite the short term temptations of resorting to determination to deliver as One on the climate the printing press. The same has to happen with change challenge. For example, we can help climate and the environment: societies will have countries improve existing infrastructure to to pre-commit and forego short term gratifica- enable people to cope with increased floodingtion for longer-term well being. and more frequent and severe extreme weather We would like to add that while the transi- events. More weather resistant crops could alsotion to climate protecting energy and life styles be developed.will have short term cost, there may be eco-vi H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 5. nomic benefits beyond what is achieved by sta- well as environmentalists than what we havebilizing temperatures. These benefits are likely seen so far. We do hope that this Human De-to be realized through Keynesian and Schum-velopment Report will contribute to such apeterian mechanisms with new incentives fordialogue.massive investment stimulating overall demand The most difficult policy challenges willand creative destruction leading to innovation relate to distribution. While there is potentialand productivity jumps in a wide array of sec- catastrophic risk for everyone, the short and me-tors. It is impossible to quantitatively predict dium-term distribution of the costs and bene-how large these effects will be but taking themfits will be far from uniform. The distributionalinto account could lead to higher benefit-cost challenge is made particularly difficult becauseratios for good climate policies.those who have largely caused the problemThe design of good policies will have to bethe rich countriesare not going to be thosemindful of the danger of excessive reliance on who suffer the most in the short term. It is thebureaucratic controls. While government leader-poorest who did not and still are not contrib-ship is going to be essential in correcting the huge uting significantly to green house gas emissionsexternality that is climate change, markets andthat are the most vulnerable. In between, manyprices will have to be put to work, so that privatemiddle income countries are becoming signifi-sector decisions can lead more naturally to opti-cant emitters in aggregate termsbut they domal investment and production decisions. not have the carbon debt to the world that theCarbon and carbon equivalent gases have to rich countries have accumulated and they arebe priced so that using them reflects their true still low emitters in per capita terms. We mustsocial cost. This should be the essence of mitiga- find an ethically and politically acceptable pathtion policy. The world has spent decades getting that allows us to startto move forward evenrid of quantity restrictions in many domains,if there remains much disagreement on the longnot least foreign trade. This is not the time to term sharing of the burdens and benefits. Wecome back to a system of massive quotas and bu-should not allow distributional disagreementsreaucratic controls because of climate change. to block the way forward just as we cannot af-Emission targets and energy efficiency targets ford to wait for full certainty on the exact pathhave an important role to play but it is the price climate change is likely to take before we startsystem that has to make it easier to achieve our acting. Here too we hope this Human Develop-goals. This will require a much deeper dialoguement Report will facilitate the debate and allowbetween economists and climate scientists as the journey to start.Kemal DerviAchim SteinerAdministrator Executive DirectorUnited Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment ProgrammeThe analysis and policy recommendations of the Report do not necessarily reect the views of the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, its Executive Board or its Member States. The Report is an independent publication commissioned by UNDP. Itis the fruit of a collaborative effort by a team of eminent consultants and advisers and the Human Development Report team.Kevin Watkins, Director of the Human Development Report Ofce, led the effort. H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 vii 6. Acknowledgements This Report could not have been prepared without the generous contribution of the many individuals and organizations listed below. Special mention must be made of Malte Meinshausen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who provided constant and patient advice on a wide range of technical issues. Many other individuals contributed to the Report either directly through background papers, comments on draft text, and discussions, or indirectly through their research. The authors wish also to acknowledge their debt to the fourth assess- ment of the International Panel on Climate Change, which provides an unrivalled source of scientific evidence, and to the work of Sir Nicholas Stern and the team behind his Report on The Economics of Climate Change. Many colleagues in the United Nations system were extremely generous in sharing their time, expertise and ideas. The Human Development Report team received helpful advice from the UNDP Administrator, Kemal Dervi. We thank all of those involved directly or indirectly in guiding our efforts, while acknowledging sole responsibility for errors of commission and omission. ContributorsLeiserowitz, Junfeng Li, Yan Li, Yue Li, Background studies, papers and notes were Peter Linguiti, Gordon MacKerron, Andrew prepared on a wide range of thematic issues Marquard, Ritu Mathur, Malte Meinshausen, relating to the Report. Contributors were: AnuMark Misselhorn, Sreeja Nair, Peter Newell, Adhikari, Mozaharul Alam, Sarder Shafiqul Anthony Nyong, David Ockwell, Marina Alam, Juan Carlos Arredondo Brun, Vicki Olshanskaya, Victor A. Orindi, James Painter, Arroyo, Albertina Bambaige, Romina Bandura, Peter D. Pederson, Serguey Pegov, Renat Perelet, Terry Barker, Philip Beauvais, Suruchi Bhadwal, Alberto Carillo Pineda, Vicky Pope, Golam Preety Bhandari, Isobel Birch, MaxwellRabbani, Atiq Rahman, Mariam Rashid, Boykoff, Karen OBrien, Oli Brown, Odn Bimal R. Regmi, Hannah Reid, J. Timmons de Buen, Peter Chaudhry, Pedro Conceio, Roberts, Greet Ruysschaert, Boshra Salem, Pilar Cornejo, Caridad Canales Dvila, SimonJrgen Schmid, Dana Schler, Rory Sullivan, D. Donner, Lin Erda, Alejandro de la Fuente,Erika Trigoso Rubio, Md. Rabi Uzzaman, Richard Grahn, Michael Grimm, Kenneth Giulio Volpi, Tao Wang, James Watson, Harald Harttgen, Dieter Helm, Caspar Henderson,Winkler, Mikhail Yulkin and Yanchun Zhang. Mario Herrero, Saleemul Huq, Ninh Nguyen Several organizations generously shared Huu, Joseph D. Intsiful, Katie Jenkins, their data and other research materials: Agence Richard Jones, Ulka Kelkar, Stephan Klasen, Franaise de Dveloppement; Amnesty Arnoldo Matus Kramer, Kishan Khoday,International; Carbon Dioxide Information Roman Krznaric, Robin Leichenko, Anthonyand Analysis Center; Caribbean Communityviii H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 7. Secretariat; Center for Internationaladvisory panel of experts. The panel comprisedComparisons of Production, Income and Prices Monique Barbut, Alicia Brcena, Fatih Birol,at the University of Pennsylvania; Development Yvo de Boer, John R. Coomber, Mohammed T.Initiatives; Department for InternationalEl-Ashry, Paul Epstein, Peter T. Gilruth, JosDevelopment; Environmental Change InstituteGoldemberg, HRH Crown Prince Haakon,at Oxford University; European Commission; Saleem Huq, Inge Kaul, Kivutha Kibwana,Food and Agriculture Organization; GlobalAkio Morishima, Rajendra Pachauri, JiahuaEnvironment Facility; Global IDP Project; IGAD Pan, Achim Steiner, HRH Princess BasmaClimate Prediction and Applications Centre;Bint Talal, Colleen Vogel, Morris A. Ward,Institute of Development Studies; InternationalRobert Watson, Ngaire Woods and Stephen E.Centre for Prison Studies; Internally DisplacedZebiak. An advisory panel on statistics madeMonitoring Centre; International Researchan invaluable contribution, in particular TomInstitute for Climate and Society; International Griffin, the Reports Senior Statistical Advisor.Energy Agency; International Institute for The panel members are: Carla Abou-Zahr,Environment and Development; International Tony Atkinson, Haishan Fu, Gareth Jones,Institute for Strategic Studies; International Ian D. Macredie, Anna N. Majelantle, JohnLabour Organization; International MonetaryMale-Mukasa, Marion McEwin, FrancescaFund; International Organization for Migration;Perucci, Tim Smeeding, Eric Swanson, PervezInternational Telecommunication Union; Inter-Tahir and Michael Ward. The team is gratefulParliamentary Union; Joint United Nationsto Partha Deb, Shea Rutstein and MichaelProgramme on HIV/AIDS; Luxembourg Income Ward who reviewed and commented on anStudy; Macro International; Organisation for HDRO analysis of risk and vulnerability andEconomic Co-operation and Development; lent their statistical expertise.Overseas Development Institute; Oxfam; PewCenter for Climate Change; Practical ActionConsultationsConsulting; Stockholm International PeaceMembers of the Human Development ReportResearch Institute; Stockholm Internationalteam benefited individually and collectivelyWater Institute; Tata Energy Research Institute; from a wide-ranging process of consultation.Met Office; United Nations Childrens Fund;Participants in a Human DevelopmentUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Network discussion provided some wide-Development; United Nations Department ofranging insights and observations on theEconomic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division linkages between climate change and humanand Population Division; United Nationsdevelopment. The Report team wishes also toDevelopment Fund for Women; United thank Neil Adger, Keith Allott, Kristin Averyt,Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Armando Barrientos, Haresh Bhojwani, PaulOrganization, Institute for Statistics; United Bledsoe, Thomas A. Boden, Keith Briffa, NickNations High Commissioner for Refugees;Brooks, Katrina Brown, Miguel Ceara-Hatton,United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,Fernando Caldern, Jacques Charmes, LarsTreaty Section; United Nations Office of Legal Christiansen, Kirsty Clough, Stefan Dercon,Affairs; University of East Anglia; WaterAid;Jaime de Melo, Stephen Devereux, NikyWorld Bank; World Health Organization; Fabiancic, Kimberley Fisher, Lawrence Flint,World Meteorological Organization; World Claudio Forner, Jennifer Frankel-Reed, RalphTrade Organization; World Intellectual Friedlaender, Oscar Garcia, Stephen Gitonga,Property Organization and the World Wildlife Heather Grady, Barbara Harris-White, MollyFund.E. Hellmuth, John Hoddinott, Aminul Islam, Tarik-ul-Islam, Kareen Jabre, FortunatAdvisory Panel Joos, Mamunul Khan, Karoly Kovacs, DianaThe Report benefited greatly from intellectual Liverman, Lars Gunnar Marklund, Charlesadvice and guidance provided by an externalMcKenzie, Gerald A. Meehl, Pierre Montagnier,H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 ix 8. Jean-Robert Moret, Koos Neefjes, Iiris Niemi,Editing, Production and TranslationMiroslav Ondras, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Vicky The Report benefited from the advice andPope, Will Prince, Kate Raworth, Andrewcontribution of an editorial team at Green Ink.Revkin, Mary Robinson, Sherman Robinson, Anne Moorhead provided advice on structureRachel Slater, Leonardo Souza, Valentina and presentation of the argument. Techni-Stoevska, Eric Swanson, Richard Tanner,cal and production editing was carried out byHaiyan Teng, Jean Philippe Thomas, Steve Sue Hainsworth and Rebecca Mitchell. CoverPrice Thomas, Sandy Tolan, Emma Tompkins,and dividers were designed by Talking Box,Emma Torres, Kevin E. Trenberth, Jessica with conceptual inputs by Martn SnchezTroni, Adriana Velasco, Marc Van Wynsberghe, and Ruben Salinas, on the basis of a templateTessa Wardlaw and Richard Washington.designed by Grundy & Northedge in 2005. Information design was done by PhoenixUNDP Readers Design Aid and Zago; one map (map 1.1) wasA Readers Group, made up of colleagues indesigned by Mapping Worlds. Phoenix DesignUNDP, provided many useful comments, Aid, under the coordination of Lars Jrgensen,suggestions and inputs during the writing of the also did the Reports layout.Report. Special mention must be made of theThe production, translation, distributioncontribution and advice of Pedro Conceio,and promotion of the Report benefited fromCharles Ian McNeil and Andrew Maskrey. the help and support of the UNDP Office ofAll of them were generous with their time andCommunications, and particularly of Maureenmade substantive contributions to the Report.Lynch and Boaz Paldi. Translations wereOther inputs were received from: Randa reviewed by Iyad Abumoghli, Bill Bikales, JeanAboul-Hosn, Amat Al-Alim Alsoswa, BarbaraFabre, Albric Kacou, Madi Musa, UladzimirBarungi, Winifred Byanyima, Suely Carvalho,Shcherbau and Oscar Yujnovsky.Tim Clairs, Niamh Collier-Smith, RosineThe Report also benefited from theCoulibaly, Maxx Dilley, Philip Dobie, Bjrndedicated work of Jong Hyun Jeon, Isa-Frde, Tegegnework Gettu, Yannick Glemarec,belle Khayat, Caitlin Lu, Emily Morse andLuis Gomez-Echeverri, Rebeca Grynspan, Lucio Severo. Swetlana Goobenkova andRaquel Herrera, Gilbert Fossoun Houngbo, Emma Reed made valuable contributions toPeter Hunnam, Ragnhild Imerslund, Andrey the statistical team. Margaret Chi and JuanIvanov, Bruce Jenks, Michael Keating, DouglasArbelaez of the UN Office of Project ServicesKeh, Olav Kjorven, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, provided critical administrative support andOksana Leshchenko, Bo Lim, Xianfu Lu, Nora management services.Lustig, Metsi Makhetha, Ccile Molinier,David Morrison, Tanni Mukhopadhyay, B.Murali, Simon Nhongo, Macleod Nyirongo,Hafiz Pasha, Stefano Pettinato, Selva Ramach-andran, Marta Ruedas, Mounir Tabet, Jennifer Kevin WatkinsTopping, Kori Udovicki, Louisa Vinton,DirectorCassandra Waldon and Agostinho Zacarias. Human Development Report 2007/2008x H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 9. ContentsForewordvAcknowledgementsviiiOverviewFighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world 1Chapter 1 The 21st Century climate challenge 191.1 Climate change and human development 24The backdrop 24Dangerous climate changeve human development tipping points261.2 Climate science and future scenarios 31Human-induced climate change 31Global carbon accountingstocks, ows and sinks32Climate change scenariosthe known, the known unknowns, and the uncertain331.3 From global to localmeasuring carbon footprints in an unequal world 39National and regional footprintsthe limits to convergence 40Inequalities in carbon footprintingsome people walk more lightly than others431.4 Avoiding dangerous climate changea sustainable emissions pathway44Carbon budgeting for a fragile planet46Scenarios for climate securitytime is running out 47The cost of a low-carbon transitionis mitigation affordable?511.5 Business-as-usualpathways to an unsustainable climate future52Looking backthe world since 199052Looking aheadlocked on a rising trajectory53Drivers for increased emissions561.6 Why we should act to avoid dangerous climate change58Climate stewardship in an interdependent world 58Social justice and ecological interdependence59The economic case for urgent action61Mobilizing public action 65Conclusion 68Appendix table 1.1: Measuring the global carbon footprintselected countries and regions 69Chapter 2 Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal world 712.1 Climate shocks and low human development traps 75Climate disastersthe rising trend 75Risk and vulnerability 78Low human development traps83 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 xi 10. From climate shocks today to deprivation tomorrowlow human development traps in operation882.2 Looking aheadold problems and new climate change risks 90Agricultural production and food security 90Water stress and scarcity 94Rising seas and exposure to extreme weather risks 98Ecosystems and biodiversity101Human health and extreme weather events105Conclusion 106Chapter 3 Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigation 1093.1 Setting mitigation targets 112Carbon budgetingliving within our ecological means113Emission reduction targets are proliferating 113Four targeting problems in carbon budgeting118Targets matter, but so do outcomes 1193.2 Putting a price on carbonthe role of markets and governments125Taxation versus cap-and-trade125Cap-and-tradelessons from the EU Emission Trading Scheme1293.3 The critical role of regulation and government action132Power generationchanging the emissions trajectory 133The residential sectorlow-cost mitigation 136Vehicle emission standards 137R&D and deployment of low-carbon technologies1433.4 The key role of international cooperation147An expanded role for technology transfer and nance148Reducing deforestation 157Conclusion 161Chapter 4 Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperation1634.1 The national challenge 168Adaptation in the developed world168Living with climate changeadaptation in developing countries171Framing national adaptation policies 1724.2 International cooperation on climate change adaptation 184The case for international action185Current adaptation nancingtoo little, too late, too fragmented 186Rising to the adaptation challengestrengthening international cooperation on adaptation 192Conclusion 198Notes199Bibliography 204 Boxes 1.1 Feedback effects could accelerate climate change38 1.2 Millions are denied access to modern energy services45 1.3 Developed countries have fallen short of their Kyoto commitments54xii H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 11. 1.4 Stewardship, ethics and religioncommon ground on climate change61 1.5 Costbenet analysis and climate change 65 2.1 Under-reporting climate disasters 77 2.2 The global insurance industryreassessing climate risk79 2.3 Hurricane Katrinathe social demographics of a disaster 81 2.4 Drought and food insecurity in Niger85 2.5 Distress sales in Honduras87 2.6 The ood of the century in Bangladesh 88 2.7 Climate change in Malawimore of the same, and worse93 2.8 Climate change and Chinas water crisis 97 2.9 Melting glaciers and retreating prospects for human development 992.10 Climate change and human development in the Mekong Delta 100 3.1 Leadership by example in carbon budgetingCalifornia 116 3.2 Targets and outcomes diverge in Canada 120 3.3 The United Kingdoms climate change billsetting a carbon budget 121 3.4 The European Union2020 targets and strategies for energy and climate change 123 3.5 Reducing carbon intensity in transition economies124 3.6 Nuclear powersome thorny questions134 3.7 Renewable energy in Germanysuccess of the feed-in tariff136 3.8 Vehicle emissions standards in the United States 139 3.9 Palm oil and biofuel developmenta cautionary tale 1443.10 Coal and energy policy reform in China 1513.11 Decarbonizing growth in India1523.12 Linking carbon markets to the MDGs and sustainable development 155 4.1 Adaptation on the char islands of Bangladesh 177 4.2 The Productive Safety Net Programme in Ethiopia180 4.3 Conditional cash transfersBrazils Bolsa Famlia Programme181 4.4 Reducing vulnerability through agriculture in Malawi 182 4.5 Risk insurance and adaptation183 4.6 Learning from experience in Mozambique 184 4.7 National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)a limited approach189 Tables1.1Temperature ranges rise with CO2 stocksprojections for 2080341.2Global carbon footprints at OECD levels would require more than one planet482.1Drought-related food emergencies and human development are closely linked in Kenya802.2Drought in Malawihow the poor cope 842.3The impact of drought shocks in Ethiopia852.4Agriculture plays a key role in developing regions912.5Rising sea levels would have large social and economic impacts 1013.1Emission reduction targets vary in ambition1143.2Proposals for the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme1313.3Carbon emissions are linked to coal plant technology 1493.4Industrial energy efciency varies widely1504.1The multilateral adaptation nancing account 1904.2The cost of climate-proong development1934.3Investing in adaptation up to 2015 194H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 xiii 12. Figures1.1 Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up stocks and increasing temperature321.2 Global temperature forecast: three IPCC scenarios351.3 Greenhouse gas emissions are dominated by energy and land-use changes401.4 Rich countries dominate the cumulative emissions account 401.5 Global CO2 emissions are highly concentrated 411.6 Rich countriesdeep carbon footprints431.7 Living without electricity 441.8 Biomass dependence continues in many countries 441.9 The risk of dangerous climate change rises with greenhouse gas stocks46 1.10 The 21st century carbon budget is set for early expiry 47 1.11 Halving emissions by 2050 could avoid dangerous climate change 49 1.12 Contracting and converging to a sustainable future 50 1.13 Stringent mitigation does not deliver early results51 1.14 Some developed countries far short of Kyoto commitments and targets53 1.15 Business-as-usual CO2 emissions on a rising trend56 1.16 Carbon intensity is falling too slowly to cut overall emissions572.1 Climate disasters are affecting more people752.2 Disasters risks are skewed towards developing countries762.3 Climate disasters are driving up insured losses782.4 Social insurance provision is far greater in rich countries802.5 Income variability trails rainfall variability in Ethiopia 912.6 Climate change will hurt developing countries agriculture 912.7 Latin Americas retreating glaciers983.1 Falling carbon intensity does not always lower emissions1193.2 Carbon prices in the European Union have been volatile1303.3 Coal set to raise CO2 emissions in power sector 1333.4 Wind power in the UScapacity is increasing and costs are falling 1353.5 Rich country fuel efciency standards vary widely 1383.6 Rapid transition of the car eet is possiblePakistan 1423.7 Some biofuels cost less and cut CO2 emissions more1433.8 Increased coal efciency could cut CO2 emissions1493.9 Forests are in retreat1584.1 Adaptation is good investment in the European Union 1704.2 Africas climate information gap1734.3 Aid ows need to speed up to meet commitments 1884.4 Core aid to sub-Saharan Africa is at 1884.5 Developed country investments dwarf international adaptation funds1904.6 Aid is vulnerable to climate change 191Maps1.1 Mapping the global variation in CO2 emissions 422.1 Drying out: Africas drought area is expanding92xiv H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 13. Special contributions Climate changetogether we can win the battle, Ban Ki-moon 23 Climate policy as human development, Amartya Sen 28 Our common future and climate change, Gro Harlem Bruntland 59 Climate change as a human rights issue, Sheila Watt-Cloutier 82 New York City takes the lead on climate change, Michael R. Bloomberg117 National action to meet a global challenge, Luiz Incio Lula da Silva 141 We do not need climate change apartheid in adaptation, Desmond Tutu 166 No choice is our choice, Sunita Narain187Human development indicatorsHuman development indicators 219Readers guide and notes to tables221Acronyms and abbreviations 228Monitoring human development: enlarging peoples choices 1 Human development index 2291a Basic indicators for other UN member states 233 2 Human development index trends234 3 Human and income poverty: developing countries238 4 Human and income poverty: OECD countries, Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS241 to lead a long and healthy life 5 Demographic trends 2436 Commitment to health: resources, access and services 2477 Water, sanitation and nutritional status 2518 Inequalities in maternal and child health2559 Leading global health crises and risks 25710 Survival: progress and setbacks 261 to acquire knowledge 11 Commitment to education: public spending 265 12 Literacy and enrolment 269 13 Technology: diffusion and creation 273 to have access to the resources needed for a decent standard of living 14 Economic performance 277 15 Inequality in income or expenditure281 16 Structure of trade 285 17 OECD-DAC country expenditures on aid 289 18 Flows of aid, private capital and debt 290 19 Priorities in public spending294 20 Unemployment in OECD countries 298 21 Unemployment and informal sector work in non-OECD countries299 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 xv 14. while preserving it for future generations 22 Energy and the environment302 23 Energy sources306 24 Carbon dioxide emissions and stocks 310 25 Status of major international environmental treaties314 protecting personal security 26 Refugees and armaments 31827 Crime and justice322 and achieving equality for all women and men 28 Gender-related development index326 29 Gender empowerment measure330 30 Gender inequality in education334 31 Gender inequality in economic activity338 32 Gender, work and time allocation342 33 Womens political participation 343Human and labour rights instruments 34 Status of major international human rights instruments347 35 Status of fundamental labour rights conventions 351Technical note 1355Technical note 2362Denitions of statistical terms 364Statistical references372Classication of countries374Index to indicators 378Index to Millennium Development Goal indicators in the HDR indicator tables 383xvi H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 15. OverviewFighting climate change:human solidarity in a divided worldHuman progress is neither automatic nor inevitable. We are faced now with thefact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In thisunfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too lateWe maycry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea andrushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residues of numerous civilizations arewritten the pathetic words: Too late.Martin Luther King Jr. Where do we go from here: chaos or communityDelivered in a sermon on social justice fourcountries, millions of the worlds poorestdecades ago, Martin Luther Kings words re- people are already being forced to cope withtain a powerful resonance. At the start of thethe impacts of climate change. These impacts21st Century, we too are confronted with thedo not register as apocalyptic events in thefierce urgency of a crisis that links today and full glare of world media attention. They gotomorrow. That crisis is climate change. It isunnoticed in fi nancial markets and in thestill a preventable crisisbut only just. The measurement of world gross domestic productworld has less than a decade to change course.(GDP). But increased exposure to drought,No issue merits more urgent attentionorto more intense storms, to floods and envi-more immediate action.ronmental stress is holding back the efforts Climate change is the defi ning humanof the worlds poor to build a better life fordevelopment issue of our generation. All devel- themselves and their children.opment is ultimately about expanding humanClimate change will undermine inter-potential and enlarging human freedom. It isnational efforts to combat poverty. Seven yearsabout people developing the capabilities that ago, political leaders around the world gatheredempower them to make choices and to leadto set targets for accelerated progress in humanlives that they value. Climate change threatens development. The Millennium Developmentto erode human freedoms and limit choice. ItGoals (MDGs) defined a new ambition for 2015.calls into question the Enlightenment princi- Much has been achieved, though many countriesple that human progress will make the futureremain off track. Climate change is hamperinglook better than the past.efforts to deliver the MDG promise. Looking to The early warning signs are already visible. the future, the danger is that it will stall and thenToday, we are witnessing at first hand what reverse progress built-up over generations not justcould be the onset of major human develop-in cutting extreme poverty, but in health, nutri-ment reversal in our lifetime. Across developingtion, education and other areas. H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 1 16. Climate change provides How the world deals with climate change we address these questions. Our starting pointa potent reminder of thetoday will have a direct bearing on the humanis that the battle against climate change candevelopment prospects of a large section ofand mustbe won. The world lacks neither theone thing that we share inhumanity. Failure will consign the poorest financial resources nor the technological capabil-common. It is called planet 40 percent of the worlds populationsomeities to act. If we fail to prevent climate changeEarth. All nations and all2.6 billion peopleto a future of diminished it will be because we were unable to foster theopportunity. It will exacerbate deep inequalitiespolitical will to cooperate.people share thewithin countries. And it will undermine efforts Such an outcome would represent not just asame atmosphere to build a more inclusive pattern of globaliza-failure of political imagination and leadership,tion, reinforcing the vast disparities between but a moral failure on a scale unparalleled inthe haves and the have nots. history. During the 20th Century failures In todays world, it is the poor who areof political leadership led to two world wars.bearing the brunt of climate change. Tomor-Millions of people paid a high price forrow, it will be humanity as a whole that faces what were avoidable catastrophes. Dangerousthe risks that come with global warming. The climate change is the avoidable catastrophe of therapid build-up of greenhouse gases in the21st Century and beyond. Future generationsEarths atmosphere is fundamentally changing will pass a harsh judgement on a generation thatthe climate forecast for future generations. Welooked at the evidence on climate change, under-are edging towards tipping points. These are stood the consequences and then continued on aunpredictable and non-linear events that could path that consigned millions of the worlds mostopen the door to ecological catastrophesac- vulnerable people to poverty and exposed futurecelerated collapse of the Earths great ice sheets generations to the risk of ecological disaster.being a case in pointthat will transformpatterns of human settlement and undermine Ecological interdependencethe viability of national economies. Our gen-Climate change is different from other prob-eration may not live to see the consequences.lems facing humanityand it challenges usBut our children and their grandchildren to think differently at many levels. Above all,will have no alternative but to live with them.it challenges us to think about what it meansAversion to poverty and inequality today, andto live as part of an ecologically interdependentto catastrophic risk in the future provides ahuman community.strong rationale for urgent action. Ecological interdependence is not an abstract Some commentators continue to cite uncer- concept. We live today in a world that is dividedtainty over future outcomes as grounds for a at many levels. People are separated by vast gulfslimited response to climate change. That start-in wealth and opportunity. In many regions,ing point is flawed. There are indeed many rival nationalisms are a source of conflict. Allunknowns: climate science deals in probability too often, religious, cultural and ethnic identityand risk, not in certainties. However, if we value are treated as a source of division and differencethe well-being of our children and grandchildren,from others. In the face of all these differences,even small risks of catastrophic events merit an climate change provides a potent reminderinsurance-based precautionary approach. Andof the one thing that we share in common.uncertainty cuts both ways: the risks could be It is called planet Earth. All nations and allgreater than we currently understand.people share the same atmosphere. And we Climate change demands urgent action nowonly have one.to address a threat to two constituencies with aGlobal warming is evidence that we arelittle or no political voice: the worlds poor and overloading the carrying capacity of thefuture generations. It raises profoundly impor-Earths atmosphere. Stocks of greenhousetant questions about social justice, equity andgases that trap heat in the atmosphere arehuman rights across countries and generations. accumulating at an unprecedented rate.In the Human Development Report 2007/2008Current concentrations have reached 3802 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 17. parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxideWhile the worlds poor walk the EarthWe are recklesslyequivalent (CO2e) exceeding the natural rangewith a light carbon footprint they are bear- mismanaging our ecologicalof the last 650,000 years. In the course of theing the brunt of unsustainable management21st Century, average global temperatures couldof our ecological interdependence. In rich interdependence. Ourincrease by more than 5C. countries, coping with climate change to dategeneration is running To put that figure in context, it is equiva-has largely been a matter of adjusting thermo- up an unsustainablelent to the change in temperature since thestats, dealing with longer, hotter summers,last ice agean era in which much of Europeand observing seasonal shifts. Cities like ecological debt that futureand North America was under more than oneLondon and Los Angeles may face flooding generations will inheritkilometre of ice. The threshold for dangerousrisks as sea levels rise, but their inhabitantsclimate change is an increase of around 2C. are protected by elaborate flood defenceTh is threshold broadly defi nes the point atsystems. By contrast, when global warmingwhich rapid reversals in human development changes weather patterns in the Horn ofand a drift towards irreversible ecological dam- Africa, it means that crops fail and people goage would become very difficult to avoid.hungry, or that women and young girls spend Behind the numbers and the measurementmore hours collecting water. And, whateveris a simple overwhelming fact. We are recklessly the future risks facing cities in the rich world,mismanaging our ecological interdependence.today the real climate change vulnerabilitiesIn effect, our generation is running up an linked to storms and floods are to be foundunsustainable ecological debt that future gen- in rural communities in the great river deltaserations will inherit. We are drawing down the of the Ganges, the Mekong and the Nile, andstock of environmental capital of our children.in sprawling urban slums across the develop-Dangerous climate change will represent theing world.adjustment to an unsustainable level of green- The emerging risks and vulnerabilitieshouse gas emissions. associated with climate change are the out- Future generations are not the only con-comes of physical processes. But they are alsostituency that will have to cope with a problema consequence of human actions and choices.they did not create. The worlds poor will sufferTh is is another aspect of ecological inter-the earliest and most damaging impacts. Rich dependence that is sometimes forgotten. Whennations and their citizens account for the over- people in an American city turn on the air-whelming bulk of the greenhouse gases locked conditioning or people in Europe drive theirin the Earths atmosphere. But, poor countries cars, their actions have consequences. Thoseand their citizens will pay the highest price forconsequences link them to rural communitiesclimate change.in Bangladesh, farmers in Ethiopia and slum The inverse relationship between responsi-dwellers in Haiti. With these human connec-bility for climate change and vulnerability to its tions come moral responsibilities, including aimpacts is sometimes forgotten. Public debateresponsibility to reflect uponand changein rich nations increasingly highlights the threat energy policies that inflict harm on other peo-posed by rising greenhouse gas emissions fromple or future generations.developing countries. That threat is real. Butit should not obscure the underlying problem.The case for actionMahatma Gandhi once reflected on how manyIf the world acts now it will be possiblejustplanets might be needed if India were to followpossibleto keep 21st Century global temper-Britains pattern of industrialization. We are ature increases within a 2C threshold aboveunable to answer that question. However, wepreindustrial levels. Achieving this future willestimate in this Report that if all of the worlds require a high level of leadership and unparalleledpeople generated greenhouse gases at the sameinternational cooperation. Yet climate change israte as some developed countries, we would a threat that comes with an opportunity. Aboveneed nine planets. all, it provides an opportunity for the world toH U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 3 18. The real choice facingcome together in forging a collective responsedown stocks. People living at the start of thepolitical leaders and peopleto a crisis that threatens to halt progress.22nd Century will live with the consequences The values that inspired the drafters of of our emissions, just as we are living with the today is between universal the Universal Declaration of Human Rights consequences of emissions since the indus-human values, on the oneprovide a powerful point of reference. That trial revolution. Time-lags are an important side, and participatingdocument was a response to the political failureconsequence of climate change inertia. Eventhat gave rise to extreme nationalism, fascismstringent mitigation measures will not materi- in the widespread andand world war. It established a set of entitle- ally affect average temperatures changes until systematic violation ofments and rightscivil, political, cultural,the mid-2030sand temperatures will nothuman rights on the othersocial and economicfor all members of the peak until 2050. In other words, for the fi rsthuman family. The values that inspired the half of the 21st Century the world in general,Universal Declaration were seen as a code ofand the worlds poor in particular, will haveconduct for human affairs that would preventto live with climate change to which we arethe disregard and contempt for human rightsalready committed.that have resulted in barbarous acts which have The cumulative nature of the climateoutraged the conscience of mankind.change has wide-ranging implications. Perhaps The drafters of the Universal Declaration of the most important is that carbon cycles do notHuman Rights were looking back at a human follow political cycles. The current generation oftragedy, the second world war, that had already political leaders cannot solve the climate changehappened. Climate change is different. It is aproblem alone because a sustainable emissionshuman tragedy in the making. Allowing thatpathway has to be followed over decades, nottragedy to evolve would be a political failureyears. However, it has the power either to prisethat merits the description of an outrage to open the window of opportunity for futurethe conscience of mankind. It would representgenerations, or to close that window.a systematic violation of the human rights of Urgency is the second feature of the climatethe worlds poor and future generations and change challengeand a corollary of inertia.a step back from universal values. Conversely,In many other areas of international relations,preventing dangerous climate change would inaction or delayed agreements have limitedhold out the hope for the development ofcosts. International trade is an example. This ismultilateral solutions to the wider problemsan area in which negotiations can break downfacing the international community. Climate and resume without inflicting long-term dam-change confronts us with enormously complex age on the underlying systemas witnessedquestions that span science, economics andby the unhappy history of the Doha Round.international relations. These questions have toWith climate change, every year of delay inbe addressed through practical strategies. Yet it reaching an agreement to cut emissions adds tois important not to lose sight of the wider issuesgreenhouse gas stocks, locking the future intothat are at stake. The real choice facing political a higher temperature. In the seven years sinceleaders and people today is between universal the Doha Round started, to continue the anal-human values, on the one side, and participat-ogy, stocks of greenhouse gases have increaseding in the widespread and systematic violationby around 12 ppm of CO2eand those stocksof human rights on the other. will still be there when the trade rounds of the The starting point for avoiding dangerous22nd Century get underway.climate change is recognition of three distinc- There are no obvious historical analogiestive features of the problem. The first feature isfor the urgency of the climate change problem.the combined force of inertia and cumulativeDuring the Cold War, large stockpiles of nuclearoutcomes of climate change. Once emitted, missiles pointed at cities posed a grave threat tocarbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse human security. However, doing nothing wasgases stay in the atmosphere for a long time. a strategy for containment of the risks. SharedThere are no rapid rewind buttons for running recognition of the reality of mutually assured4 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 19. destruction offered a perversely predictableFollowing the publication of the Stern ReviewNo one country can winstability. With climate change, by contrast,on The Economics of Climate Change, most the battle against climatedoing nothing offers a guaranteed route togovernments also accept that solutions to cli-a further build-up greenhouse gases, and to mate change are affordablemore affordable change acting alone.mutually assured destruction of human devel-than the costs of inaction.Collective action is not anopment potential.Political momentum is also gatheringoption but an imperativeThe third important dimension of thepace. Many governments are setting boldclimate change challenge is its global scale. The targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.Earths atmosphere does not differentiate green-Climate change mitigation has now registeredhouse gases by country of origin. One tonne offirmly on the agenda of the Group of Eightgreenhouse gases from China carries the same(G8) industrialized nations. And dialogueweight as one tonne of greenhouse gases frombetween developed and developing countriesthe United Statesand one countrys emissions is strengthening.are another countrys climate change problem. It All of this is positive news. Practical out-follows that no one country can win the battlecomes are less impressive. While governmentsagainst climate change acting alone. Collective may recognize the realities of global warming,action is not an option but an imperative. When political action continues to fall far short of theBenjamin Franklin signed the American Declara-minimum needed to resolve the climate changetion of Independence in 1776, he is said to haveproblem. The gap between scientific evidencecommented: We must all hang together, or and political response remains large. In themost assuredly, we shall all hang separately. In developed world, some countries have yet toour unequal world, some peoplenotably poor establish ambitious targets for cutting green-peoplemight hang sooner than others in the house gas emissions. Others have set ambitiousevent of a failure to develop collective solutions. targets without putting in place the energyBut ultimately, this is a preventable crisis that policy reforms needed to achieve them. Thethreatens all people and all countries. We toodeeper problem is that the world lacks a clear,have the choice between hanging together andcredible and long-term multilateral frameworkforging collective solutions to a shared problem, that charts a course for avoiding dangerousor hanging separately.climate changea course that spans the dividebetween political cycles and carbon cycles.Seizing the moment2012 and beyond With the expiry of the current commitmentConfronted with a problem as daunting asperiod of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, the inter-climate change, resigned pessimism mightnational community has an opportunity to putseem a justified response. However, resignedthat framework in place. Seizing that opportu-pessimism is a luxury that the worlds poor nity will require bold leadership. Missing it willand future generations cannot affordandpush the world further on the route to danger-there is an alternative.ous climate change.There is cause for optimism. Five yearsDeveloped countries have to take theago, the world was still engaged in debatinglead. They carry the burden of historic re-whether or not climate change was taking place, sponsibility for the climate change problem.and whether or not it was human-induced.And they have the fi nancial resources andClimate change scepticism was a flourishing technological capabilities to initiate deep andindustry. Today, the debate is over and climate early cuts in emissions. Putting a price onscepticism is an increasingly fringe activity. Thecarbon through taxation or cap-and-tradefourth assessment review of the International systems is the starting point. But marketPanel on Climate Change has established anpricing alone will not be enough. The develop-overwhelming scientific consensus that climatement of regulatory systems and publicprivatechange is both real and man-made. Almostpartnerships for a low-carbon transition areall governments are part of that consensus. also priorities. H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 5 20. The worlds poor andThe principle of common but differenti- voice but a powerful claim to social justice andfuture generations cannotated responsibilityone of the foundations respect for human rights: the worlds poor andof the Kyoto frameworkdoes not mean that future generations. afford the complacency developing countries should do nothing. The cred- People engaged in a daily struggle to improveand prevarication thatibility of any multilateral agreement will hingetheir lives in the face of grinding poverty continues to characterizeon the participation of major emitters in the and hunger ought to have first call on humandeveloping world. However, basic principles ofsolidarity. They certainly deserve something moreinternational negotiationsequity and the human development imperative than political leaders who gather at international on climate changeof expanding access to energy demand that de- summits, set high-sounding development targetsveloping countries have the flexibility to make and then undermine achievement of the verythe transition to a low-carbon growth path at a same targets by failing to act on climate change.rate consistent with their capabilities.And our children and their childrens grandchil- International cooperation has a critical roledren have the right to hold us to a high standardto play at many levels. The global mitigation of accountability when their futureand maybeeffort would be dramatically enhanced if atheir survivalis hanging in the balance. Theypost-2012 Kyoto framework incorporatedtoo deserve something more than a generation ofmechanisms for finance and technology political leaders who look at the greatest challengetransfers. These mechanisms could help remove humankind has ever faced and then sit on theirobstacles to the rapid disbursement of the low- hands. Put bluntly, the worlds poor and futurecarbon technologies needed to avoid dangerous generations cannot afford the complacency andclimate change. Cooperation to support theprevarication that continues to characterize inter-conservation and sustainable management national negotiations on climate change. Nor canof rainforests would also strengthen thethey afford the large gap between what leadersmitigation effort.in the developed world say about climate change Adaptation priorities must also be addressed.threats and what they do in their energy policies.For too long, climate change adaptation has beenTwenty years ago Chico Mendes, thetreated as a peripheral concern, rather than as a Brazilian environmentalist, died attempting tocore part of the international poverty reductiondefend the Amazon rainforest against destruc-agenda. Mitigation is an imperative because it will tion. Before his death, he spoke of the ties thatdefine prospects for avoiding dangerous climate bound his local struggle to a global movementchange in the future. But the worlds poor cannot for social justice: At first I thought I was fight-be left to sink or swim with their own resourcesing to save rubber trees, then I thought I waswhile rich countries protect their citizens behindfighting to save the Amazon rainforest. Now Iclimate-defence fortifications. Social justice andrealise I am fighting for humanity.respect of human rights demand stronger interna-The battle against dangerous climatetional commitment on adaptation.change is part of the fight for humanity.Winning that battle will require far-reachingOur legacychanges at many levelsin consumption, inThe post-2012 Kyoto framework will power- how we produce and price energy, and in in-fully influence prospects for avoiding climateternational cooperation. Above all, though, itchangeand for coping with the climatewill require far-reaching changes in how wechange that is now unavoidable. Negotiationsthink about our ecological interdependence,on that framework will be shaped by govern- about social justice for the worlds poor, andments with very different levels of negotiating about the human rights and entitlements ofleverage. Powerful vested interests in the corpo- future generations.rate sector will also make their voices heard. Asgovernments embark on the negotiations for aThe 21st Century climate challengepost-2012 Kyoto Protocol, it is important thatGlobal warming is already happening. Worldthey reflect on two constituencies with a limited temperatures have increased by around 0.7C6 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 21. since the advent of the industrial eraand thein China and India is leading to a gradual con-By the end of therate of increase is quickening. There is over-vergence in aggregate emissions. However, per21st Century, the spectrewhelming scientific evidence linking the rise incapita carbon footprint convergence is moretemperature to increases in the concentration limited. The carbon footprint of the Unitedof catastrophic ecologicalof greenhouse gases in the Earths atmosphere.States is five times that of China and over 15 impacts could have movedThere is no hard-and-fast line separating times that of India. In Ethiopia, the average perfrom the bounds of thedangerous from safe climate change. Many of capita carbon footprint is 0.1 tonnes of CO2the worlds poorest people and most fragile eco- possible to the probablecompared with 20 tonnes in Canada.logical systems are already being forced to adapt What does the world have to do to get onto dangerous climate change. However, beyondan emissions trajectory that avoids dangerousa threshold of 2C the risk of large-scale humanclimate change? We address that question bydevelopment setbacks and irreversible ecologi-drawing upon climate modeling simulations.cal catastrophes will increase sharply. These simulations define a carbon budget forBusiness-as-usual trajectories will take thethe 21st Century.world well beyond that threshold. To have a If everything else were equal, the global50:50 chance of limiting temperature increase carbon budget for energy-related emissionsto 2C above preindustrial levels will requirewould amount to around 14.5 Gt CO2 annually.stabilization of greenhouse gases at concentra- Current emissions are running at twice thistions of around 450ppm CO2e. Stabilizationlevel. The bad news is that emissions are on aat 550ppm CO2e would raise the probabilityrising trend. The upshot: the carbon budget forof breaching the threshold to 80 percent. Inthe entire 21st Century could expire as early astheir personal lives, few people would know-2032. In effect, we are running up unsustainableingly undertake activities with a serious injuryecological debts that will lock future generationsrisk of this order of magnitude. Yet as a globalinto dangerous climate change.community, we are taking far greater risks with Carbon budget analysis casts a new light onplanet Earth. Scenarios for the 21st Centuryconcerns over the share of developing countriespoint to potential stabilization points in excess in global greenhouse gas emissions. While thatof 750ppm CO2e, with possible temperature share is set to rise, it should not divert attentionchanges in excess of 5C. from the underlying responsibilities of richTemperature scenarios do not capture thenations. If every person in the developing worldpotential human development impacts. Averagehad the same carbon footprint as the averagechanges in temperature on the scale projected person in Germany or the United Kingdom,in business-as-usual scenarions will triggercurrent global emissions would be four timeslarge-scale reversals in human development, the limit defined by our sustainable emissionsundermining livelihoods and causing masspathway, rising to nine times if the develop-displacement. By the end of the 21st Century, ing country per capita footprint were raised tothe spectre of catastrophic ecological impactsCanadian or United States levels.could have moved from the bounds of the pos-Changing this picture will require deepsible to the probable. Recent evidence on the adjustments. If the world were a single countryaccelerated collapse of ice sheets in the Antarctic it would have to cut emissions of greenhouseand Greenland, acidification of the oceans, the gases by half to 2050 relative to 1990 levels,retreat of rainforest systems and melting of Arctic with sustained reductions to the end of thepermafrost all have the potentialseparately or 21st Century. However, the world is not a singlein interactionto lead to tipping points. country. Using plausible assumptions, we esti-Countries vary widely in their contribution mate that avoiding dangerous climate changeto the emissions that are driving up atmosphericwill require rich nations to cut emissions by atstocks of greenhouse gases. With 15 percent ofleast 80 percent, with cuts of 30 percent by 2020.world population, rich countries account forEmissions from developing countries would peakalmost half of emissions of CO2 . High growth around 2020, with cuts of 20 percent by 2050. H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 7 22. Current investment patterns Our stabilization target is stringent but capabilities. No single climate shock can be attrib- are putting in place aaffordable. Between now and 2030, the aver- uted to climate change. However, climate changeage annual cost would amount to 1.6 percent ofis ratcheting up the risks and vulnerabilities carbon intensive energyGDP. This is not an insignificant investment. facing the poor. It is placing further stress infrastructure, with coalBut it represents less than two-thirds of globalon already over-stretched coping mechanisms playing a dominant rolemilitary spending. The costs of inaction couldand trapping people in downward spirals ofbe much higher. According to the Stern Review,deprivation.they could reach 520 percent of world GDP, Vulnerability to climate shocks is unequallydepending upon how costs are measured.distributed. Hurricane Katrina provided aLooking back at emission trends highlightspotent reminder of human frailty in the facethe scale of the challenge ahead. Energy relatedof climate change even in the richest coun-CO2 emissions have increased sharply sincetriesespecially when the impacts interact1990, the reference years for the reductionswith institutionalized inequality. Across theagreed under the Kyoto Protocol. Not alldeveloped world, public concern over expo-developed countries ratified the Protocols sure to extreme climate risks is mounting.targets, which would have reduced their average With every flood, storm and heat wave, thatemissions by around 5 percent. Most of thoseconcern is increasing. Yet climate disasters arethat did are off track for achieving their com- heavily concentrated in poor countries. Somemitments. And few of those that are on track262 million people were affected by climatecan claim to have reduced emissions as a result disasters annually from 2000 to 2004, over 98of a policy commitment to climate changepercent of them in the developing world. In themitigation. The Kyoto Protocol did not placeOrganisation for Economic Co-operation andany quantitative restrictions on emissions from Development (OECD) countries one in 1,500developing countries. If the next 15 years of people was affected by climate disaster. Theemissions follows the linear trend of the past 15,comparable figure for developing countries isdangerous climate change will be unavoidable. one in 19a risk differential of 79.Projections for energy use point preciselyHigh levels of poverty and low levels ofin this direction, or worse. Current investment human development limit the capacity of poorpatterns are putting in place a carbon intensivehouseholds to manage climate risks. Withenergy infrastructure, with coal playing a dom- limited access to formal insurance, low incomesinant role. On the basis of current trends andand meagre assets, poor households have topresent policies, energy-related CO2 emissionsdeal with climate-related shocks under highlycould rise by more than 50 percent over 2005constrained conditions.levels by 2030. The US$20 trillion projectedStrategies for coping with climate risks canto be spent between 2004 and 2030 to meet reinforce deprivation. Producers in droughtenergy demand could lock the world on to an prone areas often forego production of cropsunsustainable trajectory. Alternatively, new in-that could raise income in order to minimizevestments could help to decarbonize economicrisk, preferring to produce crops with lower eco-growth. nomic returns but resistant to drought. Whenclimate disasters strike, the poor are oftenClimate shocks: risk and vulnerability in forced to sell productive assets, with attendantan unequal worldimplications for recovery, in order to protectClimate shocks already figure prominently in theconsumption. And when that is not enoughlives of the poor. Events such as droughts, floodshouseholds cope in other ways: for example, byand storms are often terrible experiences for those cutting meals, reducing spending on health andaffected: they threaten lives and leave peopletaking children out of school. These are desper-feeling insecure. But climate shocks also erode ation measures that can create life-long cycleslong-term opportunities for human development,of disadvantage, locking vulnerable householdsundermining productivity and eroding humaninto low human development traps.8 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 23. Research carried out for this report under-undermining efforts to cut rural poverty. The Global temperaturelines just how potent these traps can be. Using additional number affected by malnutritionincreases of 34C couldmicrolevel household data we examined some of could rise to 600 million by 2080.the long-term impacts of climate-shocks in theresult in 330 million people Water stress and water insecurity. Changedlives of the poor. In Ethiopia and Kenya, two run-off patterns and glacial melt will addbeing permanently orof the worlds most drought-prone countries,to ecological stress, compromising flows of temporarily displacedchildren aged five or less are respectively 36 and 50 water for irrigation and human settlements inpercent more likely to be malnourished if they were the process. An additional 1.8 billion people through oodingborn during a drought. For Ethiopia, that trans-could be living in a water scarce environmentlates into some 2 million additional malnourished by 2080. Central Asia, Northern China andchildren in 2005. In Niger, children aged two orthe northern part of South Asia face immenseless born in a drought year were 72 percent morevulnerabilities associated with the retreatlikely to be stunted. And Indian women born of glaciersat a rate of 1015 metres a yearduring a flood in the 1970s were 19 percent lessin the Himalayas. Seven of Asias great riverlikely to have attended primary school. systems will experience an increase in flows The long-run damage to human devel-over the short term, followed by a decline asopment generated through climate shocks isglaciers melt. The Andean region also facesinsufficiently appreciated. Media reporting ofimminent water security threats with the col-climate-related disasters often plays an importantlapse of tropical glaciers. Several countries inrole in informing opinionand in capturing thealready highly water-stressed regions such ashuman suffering that comes with climate shocks. the Middle East could experience deep lossesHowever, it also gives rise to a perception thatin water availability.these are here-today-gone-tomorrow experi- Rising sea levels and exposure to climateences, diverting attention from the long-rundisasters. Sea levels could rise rapidly withhuman consequences of droughts and floods.accelerated ice sheet disintegration. Global Climate change will not announce itselftemperature increases of 34C could resultas an apocalyptic event in the lives of the in 330 million people being permanently orpoor. Direct attribution of any specific eventtemporarily displaced through flooding.to climate change will remain impossible. Over 70 million people in Bangladesh, 6However, climate change will steadily increasemillion in Lower Egypt and 22 million inthe exposure of poor and vulnerable house-Viet Nam could be affected. Small islandholds to climate-shocks and place increased states in the Caribbean and Pacific couldpressure on coping strategies, which, oversuffer catastrophic damage. Warming seastime, could steadily erode human capabilities.will also fuel more intense tropical storms. We identify five key transmission mecha- With over 344 million people currently ex-nisms through which climate change could stallposed to tropical cyclones, more intensiveand then reverse human development: storms could have devastating consequences Agricultural production and food security.for a large group of countries. The 1 billion Climate change will affect rainfall, temper- people currently living in urban slums on ature and water availability for agriculture fragile hillsides or flood-prone river banks in vulnerable areas. For example, drought- face acute vulnerabilities. affected areas in sub-Saharan Africa could Ecosystems and biodiversity. Climate change expand by 6090 million hectares, with is already transforming ecological systems. dry land zones suffering losses of US$26 Around one-half of the worlds coral reef billion by 2060 (2003 prices), a figure in systems have suffered bleaching as a result excess of bilateral aid to the region in 2005. of warming seas. Increasing acidity in the Other developing regionsincluding Latin oceans is another long-term threat to ma- America and South Asiawill also expe- rine ecosystems. Ice-based ecologies have rience losses in agricultural production,also suffered devastating climate changeH U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 9 24. Avoiding the unprecedentedimpacts, especially in the Arctic region.sion limits for the post-2012 Kyoto Protocol threats posed by dangerous While some animal and plant species will commitment period canand mustframe adapt, for many species the pace of climatethe global carbon budget. However, a sustain- climate change will change is too rapid: climate systems are able global emissions pathway will only be require an unparalleled moving more rapidly than they can follow.meaningful if it is translated into practical collective exercise in With 3C of warming, 2030 percent ofnational strategiesand national carbon land species could face extinction.budgets. Climate change mitigation is aboutinternational cooperation Human health. Rich countries are already transforming the way that we produce and use preparing public health systems to deal with energy. And it is about living within the bounds future climate shocks, such as the 2003of ecological sustainability. European heatwave and more extreme sum- Setting credible targets linked to global mer and winter conditions. However, themitigation goals is the starting point for the tran- greatest health impacts will be felt in develop- sition to a sustainable emissions pathway. These ing countries because of high levels of povertytargets can provide a basis for carbon budgeting and the limited capacity of public healthexercises that provide a link from the present systems to respond. Major killer diseasesto the future through a series of rolling plans. could expand their coverage. For example, an However, credible targets have to be backed by additional 220400 million people could be clear policies. The record to date in this area is exposed to malariaa disease that alreadynot encouraging. Most developed countries are claims around 1 million lives annually.falling short of the targets set under the Kyoto Dengue fever is already in evidence at higherProtocol: Canada is an extreme case in point. In levels of elevation than has previously been some cases, ambitious Kyoto-plus targets have the case, especially in Latin America andbeen adopted. The European Union and the parts of East Asia. Climate change could United Kingdom have both embraced such tar- further expand the reach of the disease. gets. For different reasons, they are both likely None of these five separate drivers will op- to fall far short of the goals set unless they move erate in isolation. They will interact with widerrapidly to put climate mitigation at the centre social, economic and ecological processes that of energy policy reform. shape opportunities for human development.Two major OECD countries are not bound Inevitably, the precise mix of transmissionby Kyoto targets. Australia has opted for a mechanisms from climate change to humanwide-ranging voluntary initiative, which has development will vary across and within coun-produced mixed results. The United States does tries. Large areas of uncertainty remain. What isnot have a federal target for reducing emissions. certain is that dangerous climate change has the Instead, it has a carbon-intensity reduction potential to deliver powerful systemic shocksgoal which measures efficiency. The problem is to human development across a large group of that efficiency gains have failed to prevent large countries. In contrast to economic shocks that aggregate increases in emissions. In the absence affect growth or inflation, many of the humanof federal targets, several United States states development impactslost opportunities for have set their own mitigation goals. Californias health and education, diminished productiveGlobal Warming Solutions Act of 2006 is a potential, loss of vital ecological systems, for bold attempt to align greenhouse gas reduction exampleare likely to prove irreversible.targets with reformed energy policies. Setting ambitious targets for mitigation Avoiding dangerous climate change: is an important first step. Translating targets strategies for mitigationinto policies is politically more challenging. Avoiding the unprecedented threats posed The starting point: putting a price on carbon by dangerous climate change will require emissions. Changed incentive structures are a an unparalleled collective exercise in inter-vital condition for an accelerated transition to national cooperation. Negotiations on emis-low-carbon growth. In an optimal scenario, the10 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 25. carbon price would be global. This is politically windfall gains at public expense. And only aCarbon markets are aunrealistic in the short-run because the worldsmall fraction of ETS permitsless than 10necessary condition for thelacks the required governance system. The morepercent in the second phasecan be auctioned,realistic option is for rich countries to develop depriving governments of revenue for tax reform transition to a low-carboncarbon pricing structures. As these structuresand opening the door to political manipulationeconomy. They are notevolve, developing countries could be integratedand generating inefficiencies. Restricting ETSa sufcient conditionover time as institutional conditions allow.quota allocations in line with the EuropeanThere are two ways of putting a price onUnions commitment to a 2030 percent cut incarbon. The first is to directly tax CO2 emis-emissions by 2020 would help to align carbonsions. Importantly, carbon taxation does notmarkets with mitigation goals.imply an increase in the overall tax burden. The Carbon markets are a necessary conditionrevenues can be used in a fiscally neutral way to for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Theysupport wider environmental tax reformsfor are not a sufficient condition. Governmentsexample, cutting taxes on labour and invest-have a critical role to play in setting regula-ment. Marginal taxation levels would requiretory standards and in supporting low-carbonadjustment in the light of greenhouse gas emis- research, development and deployment.sion trends. One approach, broadly consistentThere is no shortage of positive examples.with our sustainable emissions pathway, would Renewable energy provision is expandingentail the introduction of taxation at a levelin part because of the creation of incentivesof US$1020/t CO2 in 2010, rising in annual through regulation. In Germany, the feed-inincrements of US$510/t CO2 towards a level tariff has boosted the share of renewable sup-of US$60100/t CO2 . Such an approach would pliers in the national grid. The United Statesprovide investors and markets with a clear andhas successfully used tax incentives to encour-predictable framework for planning future age the development of a vibrant wind powerinvestments. And it would generate strong industry. However, while the rapid growth ofincentives for a low-carbon transition. renewable energy has been encouraging, overallThe second route to carbon pricing is cap-progress falls far short of what is possibleandand-trade. Under a cap-and-trade system, theof what is required for climate change mitiga-government sets an overall emissions cap andtion. Most OECD countries have the potentialissues tradable allowances that grant business theto raise the share of renewable energy in powerright to emit a set amount. Those who can reducegeneration to at least 20 percent.emissions more cheaply are able to sell allowances.Enhanced energy efficiency has the po-One potential disadvantage of cap-and-trade tential to deliver a double dividend. It canis energy price instability. The potential advan- reduce CO2 emissions and cut energy costs. If alltage is environmental certainty: the cap itself electrical appliances operating in OECDis a quantitative ceiling applied to emissions. countries in 2005 had met the best efficiencyGiven the urgency of achieving deep and early standards, it would have saved some 322 Mtquantitative cuts in greenhouse gas emissions,CO2 of emissions by 2010equivalent to takingwell-designed cap-and-trade programmes have over 100 million cars off the road. Householdthe potential to play a key role in mitigation. electricity consumption would fall by one-quarter.The European Unions Emissions Trading Personal transportation is another areaScheme (ETS), is the worlds largest cap-and- where regulatory standards can unlock dou-trade programme. While much has beenble-dividends. The automobile sector accountsachieved, there are serious problems to befor about 30 percent of greenhouse gas emis-addressed. The caps on emissions have been setsions in developed countriesand the sharefar too high, primarily because of the failure of is rising. Regulatory standards matter becauseEuropean Union member states to resist thethey can influence fleet efficiency, or the aver-lobbying efforts of powerful vested interests.age number of miles travelled per gallon (andSome sectorsnotably powerhave secured hence CO2 emissions). In the United States,H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 11 26. The rapid development and fuel efficiency standards have slipped over time. emitters such as the China, India and thedeployment of low-carbon They are now lower than in China. Raising United States. CCS is important because it standards by 20 miles per gallon would cutholds out the promise of coal-fired power gen-technologies is vital to oil consumption by 3.5 million barrels a dayeration with near-zero emissions. With a more climate change mitigation and save 400 Mt CO2 emissions a yearmore active programme of publicprivate investment, than the total emissions from Thailand. Efforts aligned with carbon pricing, CCS technologies to raise fuel efficiency standards are oftencould be developed and deployed more rapidly. countered by powerful vested interests. InBoth the European Union and the United Europe, for example, European CommissionStates have the capacity to put in place at least proposals to raise standards have been30 demonstration plants by 2015. countered by a coalition of automobile manu- Low levels of energy efficiency in develop- facturers. Several member states have rejecteding countries are currently a threat to climate the proposals, raising wider questions aboutchange mitigation efforts. Raising efficiency the European Unions capacity to translatelevels through international cooperation could climate change goals into tangible policies.transform that threat into an opportunity, gen-International trade could play a much larger erating large gains for human development in role in expanding markets for alternative fuels.the process. We demonstrate this by examining Brazil is more efficient than either the European the impact on CO2 emissions of an accelerated Union or the United States in producing etha- technology transfer programme for the coal nol. Moreover, sugar-based ethanol is moresector in China. For China alone, emissions efficient at cutting carbon emissions. The prob-in 2030 would be 1.8 Gt CO2 below the level lem is that imports of Brazilian ethanol areprojected by the International Energy Agency. restricted by high import tariffs. Removing That figure is equivalent to around one-half of these tariffs would generate gains not just for current European Union emissions. Similar Brazil, but for climate change mitigation.efficiency gains are attainable in other areas.The rapid development and deploymentEnhanced energy efficiency is a winwin of low-carbon technologies is vital to climatescenario. Developing countries stand to gain change mitigation. Picking winners in technol-from improved energy efficiency and lower ogy is a hazardous affair. Governments have environmental pollution. All countries stand at best a mixed record. However, confronted to gain from CO2 mitigation. Unfortunately, with a national and global threat on the scalethe world currently lacks a credible mecha- of climate change, governments cannot affordnism for unlocking this winwin scenario. to stand back and wait for markets to deliver.We propose the development, under the Energy policy is an area in which the scale ofauspices of the post-2012 Kyoto framework, upfront investments, time horizon, and uncer- of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility tainty combine to guarantee that markets(CCMF) to fill this gap. The CCMF would alone will fail to deliver technological change mobilize US$2550 billion annually to at the pace required by mitigation. In earlierfinance low-carbon energy investments in periods, major technological breakthroughsdeveloping countries. Financing provisions have followed decisive government action: the would be linked to the circumstances of Manhattan Project and the United States space individual countries, with a menu of grants, programme are examples. concessional support and risk guaranteesCarbon Capture and Storage (CSS) is a keyavailable. Support would be programme- breakthrough technology. Coal is the majorbased. It would cover the incremental costs of source of power for electricity generation world- achieving defined emission reduction targets wide. Reserves are widely dispersed. Coupledby scaling-up nationally-owned energy poli- with rising prices for oil and natural gas, thiscies in areas such as renewable energy, clean is one reason why coal figures prominently in coal and enhanced efficiency standards for the present and planned energy mix of major transport and buildings.12 H U M A N D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T 2 0 0 7/ 2 0 0 8 27. Deforestation is another key area for inter- themselves. In the Horn of Africa, adaptationWe are drifting into a worldnational cooperation. Currently, the world ismeans that women and young girls walk furtherof adaptation apartheidlosing the carbon assets contained in rainfor- to collect water. In the Ganges Delta, peopleests at a fraction of the market value they wouldare erecting bamboo flood shelters on stilts.have even at low carbon prices. In Indonesia,And in the Mekong Delta people are plantingevery US$1 generated through deforestation tomangroves to protect themselves against stormgrow palm oil would translate into a US$50surges, and women and children are being100 loss if the reduced carbon capacity could be taught to swim.traded on the European Unions ETS. Beyond Inequalities in capacity to adapt to climatethese market failures, the loss of rainforests change are becoming increasingly apparent. Forrepresents the erosion of a resource that playsone part of the worldthe richer partadap-a vital role in the lives of the poor, in the pro- tation is a matter of erecting elaborate climatevision of ecosystem services and in sustaining defence infrastructures, and of building homesbiodiversity.that float on water. In the other part adapta-There is scope for exploring the potential tion means people themselves learning to floatof carbon markets in the creation of incentivesin flood water. Unlike people living behindto avoid deforestation. More broadly, carbon the flood defences of London and Los Angeles,finance could be mobilized to support the res- young girls in the Horn of Africa and peopletoration of degraded grasslands, generatingin the Ganges Delta do not have a deep car-benefits for climate change mitigation, adapta-bon footprint. As Desmond Tutu, the formertion and environmental sustainability. Archbishop of Cape Town, has argued, we are drifting into a world of adaptation apartheid.Adapting to the inevitable: national actionPlanning for climate change adaptationand international cooperationconfronts governments in developing countriesWithout urgent mitigation action the world with challenges at many levels. These challengescannot avoid dangerous climate change. But pose systemic threats. In Egypt, delta floodingeven the most stringent mitigation will be could transform conditions for agriculturalinsufficient to avoid major human developmentproduction. Changes to coastal currents insetbacks. The world is already committed tosouthern Africa could compromise the future offurther warming because of the inertia built Namibias fisheries sector. Hydroelectric powerinto climate systems and the delay between generation will be affected in many countries.mitigation and outcome. For the first half of theResponding to climate change will require21st Century there is no alternative to adapta-the integrat