UNEP in the mountains- Data needs and gaps- Examples in Himalayas and Central Asia

Lawrence HislopHead, Polar and Cryosphere programmeGRID-ArendalNorway

Rio Mountain Pavillion, 2012

Established in 1989 by the Government of Norway as a Norwegian Foundation

Mission is to communicate environmental information to policy-makers and facilitate environmental decision making for change.

GRID-Arendal is a collaborating centre of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Operate as a non-profit organisation.

What is GRID-Arendal

www.grida.no

Polar programme mandate

Provide UNEP with environmental assessments and early warning, with particular focus on the Arctic. - GEO contributions.

•Stakeholder processes - To facilitate and participate in stakeholder processes that recognize different values, perspectives, and knowledge, with a particular emphasis on empowering Arctic peoples.

•Assessments and Early Warning - To provide interdisciplinary polar assessments and early warning to build awareness as a foundation for decision-making.

•Capacity Building – To engage in projects and initiatives toward building the capacity of Arctic peoples to effectively manage regional challenges and to take advantage of emerging opportunities.

•Communication and Outreach - To raise the profile of the Polar Regions by providing outreach, education and communication services.

•Expertise - To provide analytical and management tools, methods and expertise to meet stakeholder demands.

Mountains and Rio

Agenda 21, Section IIConservation & Management of Resources for Development

Chapter 13Managing Fragile Ecosystems: Sustainable Mountain Development

B) Data and information13.7. Governments at the appropriate level, with the support of the relevant international and regional organizations, should:

(a) Maintain and establish meteorological, hydrological and physical monitoring analysis and capabilities that would encompass the climatic diversity as well as water distribution of various mountain regions of the world;

(b) Build an inventory of different forms of soils, forests, water use, and crop, plant and animal genetic resources, giving priority to those under threat of extinction. Genetic resources should be protected in situ by maintaining and establishing protected areas and improving traditional farming and animal husbandry activities and establishing programmes for evaluating the potential value of the resources;

(c) Identify hazardous areas that are most vulnerable to erosion, floods, landslides, earthquakes, snow avalanches and other natural hazards;

(d) Identify mountain areas threatened by air pollution from neighbouring industrial and urban areas.

Mountains and Rio

Mountain ecosystem

goods and services

New publication due in print - July 2012

Global Environmental ChangesThe effects of climate change

All figures extracted from ZOÏ, Climate change in Central Asia: a visual synthesis, 2009

Global Environmental ChangesThe effects of climate change

Status of glacier monitoring

system limitations

• Gaps• Lack of data since 1990• Slow re-activation since 1996

Left figures come from CAWa personnal communicationRight figure extracted from IHP/HRWP, Assessment of Snow, Glacier and Water Resources in Asia, 2009

Global Environmental ChangesThe effects of climate change

All figures extracted from ZOÏ, Climate change in Central Asia: a visual synthesis, 2009

Central Asia climate

Country trends- Temperature increase- Precipitation decrease

All figures extracted from ZOÏ, Climate change in Central Asia: a visual synthesis, 2009

Recommendations:

Re-activation of monitoring interrupted in the 90’s

1. In depth study of “strategic” glaciers and rivers (including climatic parameters),

2. Basic study on a larger panel of glaciers and rivers,

3. Remote sensing monitoring of the remaining glaciers.

Specific research on permafrost and “rock glaciers”- Monitoring- Potential impact on geo-hazards and water resources

Geo-hazard assessment- Short to medium term thread- Early warning and civil engineering solutions

HICAP Background:"Every Great Project Has a Prequel"

• In the beginning, HICIA, The "Himalayan Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment"

• 2-year Feasibility Study (2008-10)

• CICERO, ICIMOD & GRID-Arendal

• CICERO and GRID´s first project related to the HKH

• Main objective:

Identify the human, economic, social and environmental vulnerability factors and key impacts related to climate change in the HKH

Result – identified data gaps and needs.

Hindu Kush Himalaya region

HICAP Goal

Objectives

HICAP is a five-year programme (2011–2015) focused on four sub-basins of major Himalayan river systems: two sub-basins in the Brahmaputra and one each in the Indus and the Ganges.

The major objectives are:

•to reduce uncertainty through downscaling and customizing of global climate change scenarios and develop water availability and demand scenarios for parts of major river basins;

•to develop knowledge and enhance capacities to assess, monitor, and communicate the impacts of and responses to climate change (compounded with other drivers of change) on natural and socioeconomic environments at local, national, and regional levels;

•to make concrete and actionable proposals for strategies and policies, considering vulnerabilities, opportunities, and potentials for adaptation, with particular reference to strengthening the role of women and local communities.

Why Women in Adaptation?

Women are more vulnerable than men to climate change as they face more social, economic, and political barriers limiting their coping capacity.

However, women’s responsibilities in households and communities, and as stewards of natural and household resources, position them well to contribute to strategies for adaptation to changing climate and environment.

Outputs 2011

GEO-5 conclusions: Data Gaps

Research and data gapsA number of research and data gaps identified by GEO-5 need to be addressed in order to track more accurately the state and trends of the global environment. Data need to be strengthened on issues such as freshwater pollution, groundwater depletion, land degradation and chemicals and waste. In addition, it is often difficult to compare the situation in different countrieseven when data are available, since many countries follow their own national guidelines when collecting them, rather than standard international guidelines.

Mountain data needs

Water, snow and ice: because the hydrological cycle will be enhanced under warmer climatic conditions, the current distribution, seasonality, and amount of precipitation may undergo significant changes in various geographical regions. The consequences for river runoff are likely to affect not only the watersheds within the mountains themselves, but also in the lowland regions that are heavily dependent on this mountain resource.

Vegetation, forests, and biodiversity: biodiversity in mountain areas encom- passes both natural and cultivated species; these systems are all sensitive to climatic factors and are likely to have different vulnerability thresholds ac- cording to the species, the amplitude, and the rate of climatic change.

Mountain data needs

Health: changing climates may lead to new distributions of vector-borne disease. A particularly interesting example in the context of mountains and uplands is the possible propagation of malaria as an indicator of climatic change.

Tourism / economic development: over the last 25 years, tourism and recreation has been one of the fastest growing industries worldwide. Tourism has both economic benefits for, and potential adverse effects on, mountain environments and local mountain communities.