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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative
Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca
October 2008
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 2
The need for foresight as instrument for policy making
What is foresight? Why foresight is used? Overview of foresight methods Brief history of foresight’s use How to do the exercise UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative
Structure of the presentation
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 3
Industrial policy in the context of open innovation
Concept of innovation ecosystem (open innovation system)
Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy
Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies
Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision of the future
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 4
Thinking about the Future
Who Would Have Imagined in the Late 1980s …
• the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism?
•a decade-long recession in Japan?
• the rise of the Internet?
• financial crash is the USA?
The future is impossible to predict
Assumptions about the future are inevitable
There is no alternative to thinking about future alternatives
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 5
Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail...
Absorbed by the technology itself, the impacts of technologyon societal change are often ignored
Lesson learned:Don‘t be preoccupied too much with technology push,
take a balanced look also at societal contexts and market pull
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 6
Technical Feasibility is often equated with market demand
Lesson learned:In a world populated by a clutter of nice technical gadgets, customers
may become very selective and reserved about „disruptive technologies“
Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail...
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 7
The potential for global diffusion of technologies is often overestimated
Lesson learned:Regional and cultural differences matter, understand diversity,
„time logic“ and asynchronities of societies
Org
anis
atio
n of
tran
spor
t m
odes
Modernization StagesPedestrianisation Cart/Rikshaw Motorcycles/Tuk-
Tuk/ScootersBusses/Used Cars/
Passenger VansNew Cars Rail-based
TransitIntellig. Transpor-
tation Systems
SingaporeSingaporeSouth KoreaSouth Korea
TaiwanTaiwanMalaysiaMalaysia
ThailandThailandVietnamVietnam
IndonesiaIndonesiaPhilippinesPhilippines
CambodiaCambodiaLaosLaos
Thinking about the Future - Dealing with projections into the future some biases still prevail...
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 8
Economy
Energy & Environment
Society, Lifestyles & Values
Demography & Target Groups Consumer Behavior
Internet & Communication
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Business & Industry
Transportation& Mobility
Science & Technology
MERCEDES-BENZ
Products & Services
Regulators
Customers
Partners
Competitors
Regulators
AUTO MARKET
Suppliers
FutureWatch is an annual integrated analysis of trends in the business environment that are shaping the future markets, products, and services of
Mercedes-Benz in Europe, the U.S. and select other regions
FutureWatch is an annual integrated analysis of trends in the business environment that are shaping the future markets, products, and services of
Mercedes-Benz in Europe, the U.S. and select other regions
Future-oriented Monitoring - International and future-oriented analysis of the company´s business environment
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 9
Scenario Approach 2003-2013
Emerging Vehicle Markets – Regional Focus
Product Focus
Strategic Futures Research - Identification of opportunities and risks for existing and new products, services and processes
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Strategic Marketingand Trend Research
Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight(e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring)
Product Impact AssessmentTechnology Assessment(e.g.Offices for technologyassessment)
Scenarios of FutureSocieties(e.g. Political think tanks)
Global Trends(e.g. World Bank,Worldwatch Institute)
StrategicTechnologyMonitoring
Long term perspective
(Conventionalmarket research
StrategicMarket Research
TechnologyMonitoring
Prospective Economic Analyses
CompetitionAnalysis
Short/medium term perspective
Focus on Markets and Business Environments(economic, political, societal, ecological)
= non-technological driving forces
Focus on Technologies
Today + 10 years + 15 years+ 5 years
Innovation and Technology Analysis
Landscape of Future Studies
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Planning – Forecast - ForesightIs there any difference?
Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future developments; involves policy makers and experts; uses shorter time horizons – usually not over 1-5 years
Forecasting tends to assume that there is one probable future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present tends; it involves only experts; time horizons are less then 10 years, whereas
Foresight assumes that there are numerous possible futures, and that the future is in fact there to be created through the actions the interested stakeholders choose to take today; it uses horizons of 10-20 years.
M.Keenan, R. Seidl da Fonseca
Foresight can use forecasts, as well as contribute to planning, but it should not be confused with either activity.
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Weakness of conventional policy formulation
Simple extrapolative prediction (based on forecasting)
Narrow pool of expertise Passive outcomes: “white papers” or policy
documents Limited ownership from the wider stakeholders Proposals are mostly normative Disruptive and innovative trends are difficult to
predict
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What is foresight?
B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits”
L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life”
The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight can prepare us for a variety of "futures"
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Status of foresight Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name Content focus
– Priority setting– Identifying ways in which future science and technology
could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities
Structural focus (increasing tendency)– Reorienting Science & Innovation system– Demonstrating vitality of S & I system– Bringing new actors into the strategic debate– Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors
& markets or around problems Content and Structural Goals may be addressed
simultaneously– All above may be at organisational, local, regional,
national or supranational levelsAlso foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy
domains
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Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise
Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUEDIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as:
– Government– Industry– Academia - natural & social scientists– Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media,
banks, schools, the general public, etc.
An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning
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The context of the Foresight process
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Five essential elements
Anticipation and projections of long-term developments
Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis
Forging new social networks
Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment
Implications for present-day decisions and actions
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Common aims of Foresight
Direction-setting
Determining priorities
Anticipatory intelligence
Informing debate
Increasing stakeholders’ involvement
Building social capital
Building identities
Advocacy
Consensus-generation
…
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Common Foresight features
Long-term orientation usually over ten years
Consider a wide-range of factors interdisciplinary approaches
Be interactive draw on knowledge and views from different
sectors and organisations Be institutionalised
creating networks among actors Employ formal techniques
to elicit, structure and synthesise the information
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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What sorts of results does Foresight create?
Examples of tangible ‘productsproducts’ include: Critical technology lists Baseline and benchmarking studies Scenarios and Visions Delphi survey result databases …
Examples of ‘processprocess’ benefits associated with foresight include: Networking and resultant horizontal linkages Commitment to guiding visions / recommendations Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight
practices => foresight culture
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Classes of Foresight methods Criteria Methods
1. Methods based on eliciting expert knowledge to develop long term strategies
− Delphi method
− Experts panels
− Brainstorming
− Mindmapping
− Scenarios building
− SWOT analysis
2. Quantitative methods that make use of statistics and other data
− Trend extrapolation
− Simulation modelling
− Cross impact analysis
− System dynamics
3. Methods to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies
− Critical/ key technologies
− Relevance trees
− Morphological analysis
− Roadmapping
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Overview of some common methods (Loveridge, 1996)
Combinations
of methods
Expertise•
Creativity
InteractionAlignment
Panels ConferencesImpactmatrix
La prospective
Sciencefiction
Brainstorming
Scenario
writing
Essays
DelphiWorkshops
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops?
Knowledge about the present
Alternative futures
What if
What if
What if
Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen?
Present actions Alternative
futures
What to do
The „best future“
Methods
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Application of the foresight methodology
Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process
Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence
Provoking a creative and motivating decision making
environment
Stimulating a participative approach
Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue
Reaching consensus around shared visions
Linking technology and innovation to wider socio-economic issues
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Sequencing Methods
Methods are rarely used in isolation; rather, they are used in complementary sequences
Useful to think about steps involved in foresight:1. Enrolment of participants2. Background data gathering, possibly forecasting3. Ideas generation4. Interaction between participants5. Analysis and assessment6. Synthesis and prioritisation7. Dissemination and implementation
Possible sequence: co-nomination, trend extrapolation, bibliometric analysis, expert panels, brainstorming, Delphi, scenarios, multi-criteria decision making, workshops . . .
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Examples of foresight exercises
• National level• Company level• Supranational level• UN response
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Modern Foresight family tree(National S&T-oriented exercises)
From 1970 Japanese Science and Technology Agency began periodic 30 year forecasts French initiatives in early 1980s Dutch foresight began activity in 1989 US Congress established Critical Technologies Institute in 1991 German and UK exercises major milestones Major upsurge during 1990s, especially in Western Europe and East Asia 2000 – EU New Member States and Latin America
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Year Delphi Mixed Panel/scenario 1970s - 30 years in
Japan
1989 Ministry of Economic Affairs Netherlands
1990 1st German 1991 Critical Technologies USA 1992 New Zealand 1993 South Korea Technologies at Threshold of 21st
Century Germany 1994 France
Japan/ Germany Mini Delphi
1st UK TF Programme
1995 100 Key Technologies France 1996 Japan –
German Delphi
Australia Foresight Steering Committee Netherlands 1st Italy Industry Foresight
1997 OPTI Spain Ireland 1998 Austria
Hungary
South Africa New Zealand Sweden
1999 2nd UK TF Programme FUTUR Germany
2000 2nd French 100 Key Technologies Portugal Industrial Association 2nd Italy Industry Foresight
2001 7th Japanese Delphi
Czech Republic Malta, Cyprus, Estonia
2002 Turkey Bulgaria Romania 3rd UK TF Programme
Mutual policylearning – selective national foresightchronology
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Company Foresight: Daimler Chrysler
Aim: To support strategy and product development processes
Permanent Foresight capability since 1979: Society and Technology Research Group
Covers anything that impacts on company competitiveness – around 40 studies per year
Time Horizon: typically around 10 years, but variable
Methods: Scenarios
Outcome: strategies sufficiently robust to survive most scenarios
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Scenario Process at Daimler Chrysler
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative
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UN Secretary General report on “Bridging the Technology Gap between and within Nations”, proposes to governments in developing countries and economies in transition, “involving representatives from industry, academia and public sectors in carrying out comprehensive technology foresight exercises with a view to identifying technologies that are likely to help address pressing socio-economic needs and establish priorities in S&T policy and governmental programmes on research and education”.
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Aims
Responding to the member countries’ need for a mid- and long-term development vision
Bringing a more technology-oriented focus into the relevant national and regional knowledge-based institutions
Providing assistance for a more sustainable and innovative development
Fostering economical, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential
Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels
Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes
Development Objectives
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 35
Awareness building and training Summits, Conferences and expert meetings Electronic information exchange facility and
tools Studies and sectoral exercises Financial mechanisms Counterparts and coordination mechanism
(EVC)
Implementation strategy & activities
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Foresight as a tool for regional R&D programmes
Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networking
Reduce costs by sharing common activities
Awareness of global and regional trends
Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems
Concentration of multi-country production chains
Regional Dimension
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Support governments and companies to set up foresight capabilities
Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework
Set up Clearing Houses on Foresight (ex. EVC)
Future UNIDO efforts
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative
Activities
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 39
Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities
Capacity Building
Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-8)
Summit
Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7)
Projects
Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6)
Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7)
Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9)
Future of the Andean Products: Textiles (2008-2009)
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Complex production chains
Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Multicountry
Participation of different countries
Plurinational
Multisectorial
Complex production chains
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach:Productive Chains
ProductsProducts Production
processes
Production
processes
MarketsMarkets
Identification of:
Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries
Required cooperation for technology up-grading
Identification of:
Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries
Required cooperation for technology up-grading
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY
South American Pacific Coast
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative 43
Marine
Fresh water
Aquaculture
RESOURCES
Intermediate and final agricultural goods
Industrial intermediate goods
Production services
INDUSTRIAL INPUTS
Capital goods
Infrastructure
Factory ships
Seine
Small scale
EXTRACTION
Aquaculture
Canned
Frozen
Cured
PROCESSING
Concentrated
Hydrolysed
Meals and crude oils
HUMAN CONSUMPTION
NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION
Semi-refined oils
Balanced food
Refined oils
Animal feed
Fishery Productive chain
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Regional Situation
National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets
Strengh and weakness of the environment
Regional Panel
National DiagnosticsNational Diagnostics
National Foresight Studies
Regional Panel and Report
Critical Technologies Tools of ActionDecision
Making Processes
National Panels Consultations
MethodologyMethodology
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Results/Recommendations
1. Definition of a regional policy
2. Technology up-grading and investment promotion for re-conversion and modernization
3. Creation of new regional center for capability building and technology watch/road mapping
4. Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of the region
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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THE FUTURE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY
Central and Eastern European Countries
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe
Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia
Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6European Commission – 6th Framework
Starting date: 01 February 2007
Duration: 2 years
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - The immediate goal:
to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern European countries to reach international standards
to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality.
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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OPTIUNIDO
WIIW
FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG)
Committee of high-level national policy-makers
Knowledge institutions on food industry from every participating
country
OPTIUNIDO
HungaryIEHAS
Czech Rep.TC AS CR
SlovakiaBIC Group
CroatiaNWMC
RomaniaUEFISCSU
BulgariaARC Fund
Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project team
UNITED NATIONSINDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTORGANIZATION
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Work plan
flowchart
Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe - Project strategy:
1. Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups2. A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3. Interviews with specialists.4. A survey on key technologies5. Future vision building exercise6. Technology road mapping
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WP1 Kick off meeting
WP2 Future scenarios
WP3 Key technologies survey guidelines
WP4 Key Technologies survey analysis
WP5 Future Visions
WP6 Road Mapping
WP7 Policy Recommendations
WP8 Final Conference
WP
10
Pro
ject
coo
rdin
atio
n a
nd
man
age
me
nt
WP
9 D
isse
min
atio
n a
ctiv
itie
s
Work plan
flowchart
Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Work plan Flow
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WORK PACKAGES
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2402 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 017 8 0
Workpackages (Lead partner) / Tasks (Deliverables)
WP1 - Kick off meeting (UNIDO)Task 1.1 - Description of scope (D1)Task 1.2 - Criteria for expert selection (D2)WP2 - Future Socio-economic Scenarios (OPTI)Task 2.1 - Scenarios report (D4)WP3 - Design of the key technologies survey and interviews guidelines (IE HAS/w iiw)Task 3.1 - Draft of statements on key technologies and interview guidelines (D5)Task 3.2 - Documentation of national expert panels (D6)Task 3.3 - Final version of interview guidelines (D7)Task 3.4 - Final version of statements for the key technologies questionnaires (D8)Task 3.5 - Electronic questionnaire and reply data base (D9)Task 3.6 - Data base of experts to be interview ed (D10)WP4 -Key technologies survey and interviews - Preliminary results (IE HAS/national partners)Task 4.1 - Data base w ith anw ers from questionnaires (D11)Task 4.2 - Six national reports (D12)Task 4.3 - Documentation of internal review (D13)Task 4.4 - Report on interpretation of results and f irst policy conclusions (D14)WP5 - Future visions (OPTI)Task 5.1 - Report on future visions (D15)WP6 - Road mapping (TC ASCR)Task 6.1 - Documentation from the road mapping w orshop (D16)WP7 - Integration of results. Policy recommendations (w iiw )Task 7.1 - Integrated f inal report and policy recommendations (D17)WP8 - Final conference (UNIDO)Task 8.1 - Conducting the f inal conference (D20)WP9 - Dissemination activities (BIC Group)Task 9.1 - Project w ebsite (D3)Task 9.2 - New sletters publication (D18)Task 9.3 - Manual for SMEs (D19) - in cooperation w ith UNIDOTask 9.4 - Publication of the f inal report (D23)WP10 - Project coordination and management (UNIDO)Task 10.1 - Final w ork plan (D21)Task 10.2 - Progress and coordination reports (D22) - including the preparation of the Manual for SMEs
TOTAL
GANTT Chart
Year 1 Year 2
M.1
M.2
M.3
M.4
M.5
M.6
M.7
M.9 M.10M.8
M.11
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative
Dr. Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca
www.unido.org/foresight
October 2008