Unipco presentation march 25, 2014 garth whyte

The Maritime Restaurant Industry Presentation by Garth Whyte Moncton, NB March 25, 2014

Presentation Overview

o  State of the Maritime restaurant industry

o  State of the economy

o  Restaurant sales forecast

o  Why join Restaurants Canada?

State of the Maritime Restaurant Industry

Overview of the Maritime Restaurant Industry

•  $3.1 billion in sales

•  1.4 million visits to restaurants every day

•  4,150 commercial establishments

Full-service Restaurants

1,650

Quick-service

restaurants 1,800

Caterers 420

Drinking Places 280

Number of Commercial Foodservice Establishments - Maritimes

Overview of the Maritime Restaurant Industry

•  59,800 jobs

•  6.8% of the Maritime workforce

Source: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada

8,800

10,000

12,800

13,600

23,900

28,300

40,000

44,800

59,800

64,300

67,600

114,600

Forestry, fishing, mining,

Fishing, hunting and trapping

Real estate and leasing

Agriculture

Wholesale trade

Finance and insurance

Transportation and

Professional, scientific and

Restaurants

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail trade

2013 Private Sector Employment by Industry Maritimes

2013 Commercial Foodservice Sales Growth

Canada 4.6%

0.4%

2.7% 4.3%

7.2%

5.5% 6.2% 5.9%

6.1%

6.9%

-8.7%

0.9%

4.6%

9.3%

Source: Statistics Canada

Nominal Change in Foodservice Sales - Maritimes


3.7%

6.2% 5.7%

-1.0%

3.3%

-6.2%

2.8%

-1.2%

6.9%

2.0%

3.5%

0.8%

3.0%

1.0%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sales by Segment - Maritimes

2013/2012

1.1%

1.3%

-7.0%

11.3%


In millions of $

$120.4

$176.2

$835.6

$1,390.2

Drinking Places

Caterers

Full-service restaurants

Quick-service restaurants

Sales growth by segment over time


Cumulative change in per capita sales since 2003 - Maritimes

7%

25%

6%

-8%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Full-service restaurants Quick-service restaurants Caterers Drinking Places

Restaurant Outlook Survey

72%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Five in 10 respondents reported higher average food costs in January 2014.

Source: Restaurants Canada, Restaurant Outlook Survey

Restaurant Outlook Survey


An increasing share of operators plan to raise their menu prices over the next six months.

54%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Higher About the same

Profitability by Province

2.8%

3.4%

3.9%

4.2%

5.2%

5.2%

5.7%

6.7%

7.0%

7.1%

7.9%

Ontario

British Columbia

Quebec

Canada

Nova Scotia

New Brunswick

Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland and Labrador

Saskatchewan

Alberta

Manitoba

(Pre-tax profit margin as a share of operating revenue)


Operating Expenses in the Maritimes


Cost of Sales 36.8%

Salaries and wages 34.1%

Repair and maintenance

2.6%

Rental and leasing 5.9%

Utilities 3.2%

Advertising 3.0%

Depreciation 2.6% Other

6.7%

Pre-tax profit 5.2%

State of the Economy

Real GDP Growth by Province - 2013

0.2%

0.9%

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

1.3%

1.7%

2.2%

3.3%

3.4%

5.1%

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Quebec


Ontario

British Columbia

Canada

Manitoba

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Newfoundland & Labrador

Source: TD Economics

Unemployment Rate by Province - 2013


4.0%

4.6%

5.4%

6.6%

7.1%

7.5%

7.6%

9.0%

10.4%

11.4%

11.5%

Saskatchewan

Alberta

Manitoba

British Columbia

Canada

Ontario

Quebec

Nova Scotia

New Brunswick



Consumer Confidence Index - Canada

Source: Conference Board of Canada

2002 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7 O

ct-0

7 Ja

n-08

A

pr-0

8 Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9 O

ct-0

9 Ja

n-10

A

pr-1

0 Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1 O

ct-1

1 Ja

n-12

A

pr-1

2 Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3 O

ct-1

3 Ja

n-14

Average Check Per Person – Atlantic Canada

Source: The NPD Group Inc.\Foodservice\CREST®\Atlantic Canada\12 ME November

2012 2013 Difference

Quick-service Restaurants $4.63 $4.69 $0.06

Family/ Midscale Restaurants $11.10 $11.60 $0.50

Casual Restaurants $16.05 $15.92 -$0.13

Fine Dining Restaurants $44.78 $41.30 -$3.48

Retail Foodservice $3.84 $4.57 $0.73

Total Market $5.93 $6.08 $0.15

Foodservice Forecast

1.1%

1.3%

1.6%

2.0%

2.1%

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

2.3%

2.5%

3.3%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%


New Brunswick


Quebec

Nova Scotia

Manitoba

Ontario

British Columbia

Canada

Saskatchewan

Alberta

Source: TD Economics

Real GDP Growth by Province - 2014

Nominal Change in Foodservice Sales – New Brunswick

Source: Statistics Canada and Restaurants Canada

2.6%

4.3%

2.5% 2.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Nominal Change in Foodservice Sales – Prince Edward Island


2.1%

4.4%

2.1% 1.8%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Nominal Change in Foodservice Sales – Nova Scotia


4.3% 4.6%

3.2% 2.2%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Restaurant Outlook Survey – Top 5 Issues Impacting Operators in January


52%

54%

55%

62%

67%

Weak economy

Bad weather

Credit card merchant fees

Food costs

Labour costs

Foodservice Share of the Total Food Dollar

40.1%

37.8% 38.3%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-p 2014-f

Note: Total food dollar includes spending by consumers, tourists, businesses, institutions and government at foodservice operations, grocery and convenience stores.

p - preliminary; f - forecast

Source: Restaurants Canada and Statistics Canada

Date post:	21-Aug-2015
Category:	Economy & Finance
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Unipco presentation march 25, 2014 garth whyte

Economy & Finance