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unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

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IPCC 2013 report available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/ CLIMATE MODELS ARE BASED ON THE MAIN DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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Page 1: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

CLIMATE MODELS ARE BASED ON THE MAIN DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Page 2: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

OBSERVATIONAL DATA IS DEPENDENT ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SENSORS

Page 3: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE MODELS OVER THE LAST 35 YEARS

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 4: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

GRID-SCALE RESOLUTION IS AN IMPORTANT COMPONENT TO IMPROVED CLIMATE MODELS

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 5: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF NATURAL VARIABILITY, EMISSIONS UNCERTAINTY AND CLIMATE RESPONSE UNCERTAINTY

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 6: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

ESTIMATED CHANGES IN GLOBAL ANNUAL MEAN SEA LEVEL BASED ON A RANGE OF IPCC REPORTS

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 7: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

RCP8.5: This RCP is characterized by increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration levels.

RCP6: This RCP represents a stabilization scenario where total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, through the application of a range of technologies and strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

RCP4.5: This RCP is another stabilization scenario where total radiative forcing is stabilized shortly after 2100, without overshooting the long-run radiative forcing target level (emissions restrictions are tighter than for RCP6).

RCP2.6: This emission pathway is modeled using very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. In order to reach low radiative forcings (2.6 W/m2 by 2100), greenhouse gas emissions are reduced substantially over time.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics

CLIMATE MODELS INCORPORATE SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT ARE BASED ON A RANGE OF EMISSION SCENARIOS

Page 8: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

CLIMATE MODELS INCORPORATE SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT ARE BASED ON A RANGE OF EMISSION SCENARIOS

http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 9: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

Trends in concentrations of greenhouse gases. Grey area indicates the 98th and 90th percentiles (light/dark grey) of the literature.

CLIMATE MODELS INCORPORATE SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT ARE BASED ON A RANGE OF EMISSION SCENARIOS

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 10: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

Population and GDP projections of the four scenarios underlying the RCPs

CLIMATE MODELS INCORPORATE SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT ARE BASED ON A RANGE OF EMISSION SCENARIOS

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Page 11: unit 2, part 4: IPCC climate models

IPCC 2013 report available at:http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

CLIMATE MODELS INCORPORATE SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT ARE BASED ON A RANGE OF EMISSION SCENARIOS


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