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United States DemographicsUnited States Demographics
Mr. Hyke
AHS
The present population of the
United States is 310 million people
Steep declines in European source countries during the century
1900-1920
13%
34%
3%50%
EuropeAsiaLatin AmericaAfrica
10%
4%
86%
1980-2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Fastest Growing, 1990 - 2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Immigrant Magnet States
Comparative Fertility Rates
Total Fertility Rate
Hispanic 3.2
Black and American
Indian
2.1
Replacement Level 2.1
Asian 2.0
White 1.9Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2002
Total Fertility Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2001
Black and Latino populations are nearly equal in size
Source: Census 2000 SF1
U.S Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000
10 “Classic” Immigrant Magnet Metros
90 - 99 Immigrants
1. New York ------------- 1,408,543
2. Los Angeles ----------- 1,257,925 3. San Francisco --------- 494,189 4. Miami ------------------ 420,488 5. Chicago ----------------- 363,662 6. Washington ------------ 267,175 7. Houston ---------------- 214,262 8. Dallas-Fort ------------- 173,500 9. San Diego -------------- 159,69110. Boston ------------------ 137,634
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Demographic Components, 1990s
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
California New YorkNew York TexasTexas
7.4
10.4
-7.2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
6.0 5.3
-10.2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
4.13.3
10.1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers
1. Los Angeles 1,819,370
2. New York 992,185
3. Chicago 600,810
4. Dallas 594,836
5. Houston 575,098
6. Miami 501,543
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
KeyBelow 12.5%12.5% - 25.0%Above 25.0%
Hispanic Concentration2000
Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute
1990 – 2000 Greatest Asian Gainers
1. New York 710,809
2. Los Angeles 611,201
3. San Francisco 554,326
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Up- and Coming Asian Growth Magnets
% Growth
1. Las Vegas 286 2. Atlanta 200 3. Austin 175 4 . Orlando 171 5. Tampa 149 6. Phoenix 149 7. Dallas 133 8. Portland OR 119 9. Minn. - St. Paul 11810. Denver 11511.Miami 113
2000 Populations > 50,000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
KeyBelow 4.3%4.3% - 10.0%Above 10.0%
Asian Concentration2000
Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute
1990 - 2000 Major Black Growth Centers
% Growth
1. Orlando 62.2 2. Atlanta 61.9 3. Miami 43.4 4. Tampa 36.8 5. Charlotte 34.7 6. Columbus, OH 34.6 7. Jacksonville, FL 34.3 8. Boston 33.8 9. Raleigh 33.110. Dallas 31.7
(Over 200,000 blacks and 30% growth)
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
KeyBelow 12.6%12.6% - 25.0%Above 25.0%
Black Concentration2000
Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute
1990 - 2000 Greatest White Decliners
1. Los Angeles -843.065
2. New York -679,790
3. San Francisco -269,844
4. Philadelphia -199,359
5. Miami -118,506
6. Chicago -93,794
7. San Diego -84,448
8. Pittsburgh -81,900
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
KeyBelow 69.1%69.1% - 85.0%Above 85.0%
White Concentration2000
Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute
KeyWhiteBlackHispanicAsianAm. IndianMulti-ethnic
America’s Patchwork Quilt
Source: William H Frey, Milken Institute
"Multiple Melting Pot”Typology of US States
Melting Pot States
White-Black Gainers
Mostly White Gainers
Slow Growth/Declining
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
“Melting Pot” Metro Profiles, 2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
12%
1%
40%
39%
8%
Whites
Los Angeles Miami Houston
Blacks Hispanics
2%1%
40%36%
21%
5%1%
29%48%
17%
Asians American Indians
Household Changes in the Next DecadeHousehold Changes in the Next Decade
1,140,031
1,922,839
6,548,652
3,607,427
-3,500,679
217,355
75 +
65 - 74
55 - 64
45 - 54
35 - 44
24 - 34
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
The End
Race Profiles for Age GroupsL.A. County, 1998
Under Age 18Under Age 18 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 AgeAge 65 + 65 +
22 % 34% 58 %
white black Indian Asian Hispanic
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
CaliforniaProjected Race Compositions, 2025
Age 0 - 17Age 0 - 17 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 Age 65 +Age 65 +
25% 34% 52%
white black Indian Asian Hispanic
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Rest of WestProjected Race Compositions, 2025
Age 0 - 17Age 0 - 17 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 Age 65 +Age 65 +
58% 67% 81%
white black Indian Asian Hispanic
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
GeorgiaProjected Race Compositions, 2025
Age 0 - 17Age 0 - 17 Age 18 - 64Age 18 - 64 Age 65 +Age 65 +
53 % 60 % 73 %
NH-White NH-Black NH- Indian NH-AsianHispanic
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
United StatesProjected Race Compositions,
2025
Under Age 18Under Age 18
52 %
white black Indian Asian Hispanic
62 %
Age 18 -64Age 18 -64
76 %
Age 65+Age 65+
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
www.census.gov
www.ameristat.org
www.ssdan.net
www.frey-demographer.org
Useful Websites
Selected New Sunbelt and Old Sunbelt StatesGrowth 1980s and 1990s
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
80s
90s
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Florida
Texas
California
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
New Sunbelt, Immigrant Magnet, and Heartland States
New SunbeltImmigrant MagnetsHeartland States
Domestic Migrant Magnet Metros
90 - 99 Net Migration 1. Atlanta ----------------
498,283 2. Phoenix ---------------
396,092 3. Las Vegas -------------
394,331 4. Dallas ------------------
235,611 5. Denver -----------------
200,658 6. Portland, OR -----------
198,896 7. Austin ------------------
168,817 8. Orlando ----------------
167,120 9. Tampa -----------------
157,20910. Charlotte --------------
154,320
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
1990 - 2000 Greatest Black Gainers
1. Los Angeles459,582
2. New York450,725
3. Washington DC358,727
4. Miami241,492
5. Chicago181,101
6. Dallas176,293
7. Philadelphia162,932
8. Houston142,304
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Demographic Components, 1990s
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Colorado GeorgiaGeorgia PennsylvaniaPennsylvania
1.9
8.6
12.2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1.6
8.110.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.9
-2.1
2.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase
Metro and Nonmetro Residence, 2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
23%
47%
30%
11%
25%
64%
Large Metro Small Metro Non-Metro
White Non-White
City, Suburb, Nonmetro Residence, 2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
23% 23%
54%
11%
41%48%
City Suburb Non Metro
White Non-White
International & Domestic Migration 1990s
InternationalInternationalDomesticDomestic
CaliforniaCalifornia Rest of WestRest of West
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Population Change By Race , 1990s
89,484
4,564
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
white black Indian Asian Hispanic
California Rest of West
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Migration by Education AttainmentCalifornia 1990 - 99
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14Domestic Migration
Immigration
Less than High School
HS Grad Some College College Grads
Education Attainment by Race Los Angeles Metro 1999
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
Age 25 - 64
Less than High School
HS Grad Some College College Grads
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Hispanic Education Attainment Los Angeles 1999
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
Age 25 - Age 25 - 6464Native
BornArrived Before 1980
Arrived Since 1980
Less than High School
HS Grad Some College College Grads
Race Profiles for Occupations Los Angeles 1999
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
Professional
& Mgrs
Clerical & Sales
Skilled Blue
Collar
Unskilled & Services
Black Indian HispanicWhite Asian
Race Profiles for Family’s IncomeLos Angeles 1999
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
Black Indian HispanicWhite Asian
Upper 25 %
Second 25 %
Third 25 %
Lower 25 %
Home-Ownership by RaceLos Angeles Metro 1999
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
WhiteWhite
63 %
Owners Renter
BlackBlack
50 %
AsianAsian
47 %
HispanicHispanic
41 %
Hispanic Home-Ownership Los Angeles Metro 1999
Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute
Native BornNative Born
56 %
Owners Renter
Arrived Before 1980Arrived Before 1980Arrived Since 1980Arrived Since 1980
50 % 21.6 %
The Senior ExplosionProjected Senior Growth, 2000-2025
60% and below
Over 100 %81 % - 100 %60% ~80%
Percent Senior Growth
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
Child & Elderly Dependency RateUnited States 1995 - 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 2005 2015 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 2005 2015 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 2005 2015 2025
WhitesWhites HispanicsHispanics AsiansAsians
Child Elderly
Source: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. University of Michigan & Milken Institute
”Non-Whites among Adults and Children, 2000
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
Over 40% 25% to 40% Under 25%
Adults Children
Largest “Racial Generation Gaps”
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
State AdultsChildren
Arizona 31% 50%
New Mexico 51% 67%
California 49% 65%
Nevada 31% 46%
Texas 44% 57%
% Non-Whites
Smallest “Racial Generation Gaps”
Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census
State AdultsChildren
Vermont 3% 5%
Maine 3% 5%
West Virginia 5% 7%
New Hampshire 4% 7%
Kentucky 10% 14%
% Non-Whites