United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 6-15 June 2015 Russia Wheat: Rain Boosts Winter Wheat Yield Prospects but Delays Spring Wheat Planting USDA forecasts Russia wheat production for 2015/16 at 55.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month but down 4.1 million tons from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 25.2 million hectares against 23.6 million last year, and yield is forecast at 2.18 tons per hectare, up 2.0 percent from last month, down 13 percent from last year, and 2.3 percent above the 5-year average. Winter wheat in the key Southern District benefited from precipitation in May and early June, especially in the northern half of the district where winter crops were in poor condition earlier in the spring. Crop vigor remains generally poor in the Central District, where satellite-derived vegetation indices indicate that Winter wheat has not satisfactorily recovered from the severe fall dryness that hampered crop emergence and establishment. Conditions in the Volga District are mixed; in the southern territories Winter- grain conditions have shown modest improvement but are still only fair, while in the more World Agricultural Production Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign
Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 6-15 June 2015
Russia Wheat: Rain Boosts Winter Wheat Yield Prospects but Delays Spring Wheat Planting USDA forecasts Russia wheat production for 2015/16 at 55.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month but down 4.1 million tons from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 25.2 million hectares against 23.6 million last year, and yield is forecast at 2.18 tons per hectare, up 2.0 percent from last month, down 13 percent from last year, and 2.3 percent above the 5-year average. Winter wheat in the key Southern District benefited from precipitation in May and
early June, especially in the northern half of the district where winter crops were in poor condition earlier in the spring. Crop vigor remains generally poor in the Central District, where satellite-derived vegetation indices indicate that Winter wheat has not satisfactorily recovered from the severe fall dryness that hampered crop emergence and establishment. Conditions in the Volga District are mixed; in the southern territories Winter-grain conditions have shown modest improvement but are still only fair, while in the more
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northern part of the district conditions are excellent. Winter wheat harvest typically begins in late June in the southernmost territories of European Russia. Persistently wet weather contributed to significant spring wheat planting delays in parts of the Volga and Ural Districts during the second half of April and most of May. Planting accelerated in late May following the arrival of drier weather, and by June 5 the sown area of spring wheat had reached the same level as last year, with planting complete on 97 percent of the forecast area. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Ukraine Wheat: Continued Improvement During May USDA forecasts Ukraine wheat production for 2015/16 at 23.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month, but down 1.8 million tons from last year’s bumper crop. Harvested area is estimated at 6.8 million hectares against 6.3 million hectares last year. Yield is forecast at 3.38 tons per hectare, up 3.0 percent from last month, down 14 percent from last year, and 4.7 percent above the 5-year average. Severe dryness hampered Winter-wheat emergence and establishment last fall, and crop conditions were extremely poor when Winter wheat resumed vegetative growth in March. Winter wheat yield prospects improved significantly following beneficial rain in April and May although some territories still show evidence of dryness. Winter wheat accounts for over 95 percent of the country’s total wheat output. Harvest will begin in late June or early July. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) European Union Wheat: Large Increases in France, UK, Offset Decreases in Spain and Central Europe
European Union (EU) wheat production for 2015/16 is estimated at 150.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month, down 5.8 million tons from last year’s record, and 6.2 percent above the 5-year average. Area is estimated at 26.5 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from last month and down 0.2 million from last year, but 0.4 million hectares above the 5-year average. Yield is estimated up at 5.69 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), compared to last month’s 5.66 MT/Ha, and considerably above the 5.44 MT/Ha 5-year average.
The EU is the world’s largest producer of wheat. It is grown throughout the EU so it is typically subject to a wide range of weather. Conditions in May were favorably wet in France and the United Kingdom (UK), slightly unfavorably dry in central Europe, and unfavorably hot and dry in Spain. NDVI and weather analysis, as well as positive local reports, have led to a production increase of 1.0 million tons in France and 0.5 million tons in the UK.
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Dryness in central areas of Europe, particularly in Poland and Germany, has caused increased concerns, but soil moisture remains adequate for further crop growth. In May, Spain experienced very high temperatures in its south and widespread dryness throughout the country. Rainfall practically ended in April, prior to the crop’s completion in most areas. While the durum crop in the southern region of Andalucía was likely spared because harvest begins in May, concerns exist for the more northern areas of Castilla La Mancha and Castilla y Leon where the crop stage was further behind. Due to a combination of yield
reduction and revised area estimates from the Spanish Agricultural Ministry, production for Spain was lowered 0.6 million tons. (For more information, please contact [email protected]) European Union Rapeseed: Crop Continues to Increase but Remains Below Last Year’s Record Rapeseed production for 2015/16 in the European Union (EU) is estimated at 22.1 million, up 0.5 million tons from last month, but down 2.2 million tons from last year’s record crop. Area is estimated unchanged from last month at 6.6 million hectares, 0.2 million hectares below last year. Yield is estimated at 3.37 tons per hectare, up 2.1 percent from last month, but down 6.1 percent from last year’s record and 7.8 percent above the 5-year average. The estimate for EU rapeseed was raised because of favorable spring weather in the major growing areas of northern Europe and minimal insect damage. Moreover, reports in the press indicate that there have been no major problems stemming from the newly enacted neonicotinoid insecticide ban within the EU. With the EU enacting this regulation, concerns were raised that with no alternative insecticide, the rapeseed crop could be
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more prone to damage, but so far, the fear has not materialized. (For more information, please contact [email protected]) Russia Corn: Production Forecast at a Record USDA forecasts Russia’s corn production for 2015/16 at a record 13.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and up 1.7 million tons from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.7 million hectares, up from 2.6 million hectares last month and surpassing last year’s record by 0.1 million hectares. The month-to-month area increase is based on planting reports from the Ministry of Agriculture. Yield is forecast at 4.81 tons per hectare, up 4.3 percent from last month, up 10 percent from last year, and 15 percent above the 5-year average. The increased use of imported hybrid seed has contributed to a nearly 40-percent increase in corn yield since 2003, when imports of seed began to rise. Imports through March are down 13 percent from the same date last year but already surpass the entire annual hybrid imports of any year prior to 2014. Planting was nearly complete as of June 5, and harvest will begin in September. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Brazil Corn: 2014/15 Production Increased to Near-Record 81 Million Tons Due to Second Crop USDA/FAS forecasts 2014/15 Brazil corn production at 81.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons from last month, and up 1.0 million from last year. Area is estimated higher at 15.3 million hectares, up 0.3 million or from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 5.29 tons per hectare due to the increase in second-season corn yields. Brazil’s record corn production of 81.5 million tons was achieved in 2012/13. Brazil has two seasons for corn production. First-season corn is planted in September and harvested in March. A larger second-season, or safrinha crop, is expected to be over 60 percent of national production. The safrinha crop is planted after the early season soybean harvest, typically in January and February. The safrinha crop is harvested in June through August and is mostly exported. Harvesting has just begun. Early expectations were that second-corn area would decline precipitously due to low prices; however, area declined by 2 percent nationally. In Mato Grosso, however, the area increased from last year despite low prices. Mato Grosso is the largest producer, accounting for 34 percent of the safrinha crop. Planting of second-crop corn began in February 2015 and the planted area was achieved despite the concerns due to the late harvested soybean crop. Brazil’s safrinha corn yields are determined chiefly by rainfall in April and May and they received beneficial rainfall. Satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI) for second-crop corn are excellent in Mato Grosso; record corn yields are expected. Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are doing very well. Indicies in Parana are similar to slightly below last year. For the last three years second-crop corn yields have been high (5.13, 5.19 and 5.25 tons per hectare) because the rainy season extended into late May and June. This year’s second-crop corn yield is estimated at a record 5.55 tons per hectare. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)
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This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-542), June 10, 2015. Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068. The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, July 10, 2015.
For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis
International Production Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building
Washington, DC 20250-1051
Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158 GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz 202-720-4056 [email protected] Deputy Director Paul Provance 202-720-2974 [email protected] USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Satellite Imagery Archives Manager Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry 202-720-1157 [email protected] Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde 202-720-1156 [email protected] COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD 202-720-0107 [email protected] Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] and other FSU-12 countries
Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] and Bangladesh
East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 [email protected] India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected] Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Eastern United States Paul Provance 202-720-2974 [email protected]
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015Office of Global Analysis
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.
FAS Reports and Databases:
Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx
Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7
Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015Office of Global Analysis
TABLE 18 The table below presents a record of the differences between the June projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error” means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent. The average difference between the June projection and the final estimate is 16.3 million tons, ranging from 0.4 million to 32.2 million tons. The June projection has been below the estimate 21 times and above 13 times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
COMMODITY AND REGION
Root mean square error
90 percent confidence
interval
Difference between forecast and final estimate
Average Smallest Largest
Years Below final
Above final
Percent ---Million metric tons---
WHEAT
World 3.2 5.4 16.3 0.4 32.2 21 13
U.S. 5.8 9.9 2.7 0.0 8.4 20 14
Foreign 3.3 5.7 15.1 1.1 31.9 20 13
COARSE GRAINS 2/
World 3.8 6.4 26.3 0.6 103.3 18 16
U.S. 14.5 24.7 21.1 1.0 103.8 16 18
Foreign 2.8 4.7 13.8 0.4 41.6 17 16
RICE (Milled)
World 2.5 4.2 7.2 0.3 21.8 22 12
U.S. 6.8 11.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 20 14
Foreign 2.5 4.3 7.1 0.4 21.9 21 12
SOYBEANS
World NA NA 11.7 1.5 27.9 4 7
U.S. 9.1 15.5 4.4 0.0 12.0 16 18
Foreign NA NA 9.9 1.2 23.9 5 5
COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---
World 6.0 10.2 4.0 0.0 16.4 20 13
U.S. 10.3 17.5 1.5 0.1 5.7 17 17
Foreign 6.2 10.4 3.2 0.2 12.4 20 13
UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------
CORN 17.2 29.2 834 8 4,010 17 17
SORGHUM 20.6 34.9 88 0 228 14 19
BARLEY 14.9 25.2 29 1 206 12 22
OATS 24.4 41.4 32 1 231 7 27
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2014/15. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2013/14, and for 2014/15 last month’s estimate. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
June 2015 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015Office of Global Analysis
