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University Extension/Department of Economics
The Role of Energy in the History of Iowa Agriculture
Ag. Based Renewable Energy Professional Development WorkshopAmes, Iowa
June 20, 2011
Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA-NASS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1,0
00
acr
es
Corn Soybeans Hay OatsWheat Barley Potatoes RyeFlaxseed Sorghum Sugarbeets Sweet Potatoes
Crop Shifts
University Extension/Department of Economics
Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings
Source: USDA-NASS
1st: Corn ProductionSoybean ProductionField Crop ValueEgg ProductionHog InventoryHog Value on FarmCommercial Hog SlaughterCrop Harvested Area
2nd: Red Meat ProductionTotal Crop ValueNet Farm Income
3rd: Number of FarmsMilk Goat Inventory
4th: Cattle on FeedSteers – 500 Lbs. & Over
5th: Heifers – 500 Lbs. & OverMarket Sheep & Lambs
6th: Oat Production
7th: All Cattle & Calves
9th: Alfalfa Hay ProductionNumber of Organic Farms
10th: Land in FarmsCalf CropWool Production
University Extension/Department of Economics
Iowa Farms and Farmland
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.
50
80
110
140
170
200
230# o
f F
arm
s (1
,000s)
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Acr
es
(mill
ion)
Farms Land in Farms
University Extension/Department of Economics
Iowa Cattle Operations
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
1,0
00 f
arm
s
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mil
lio
n h
ead
Farms w/ Cattle Number of Cattle
University Extension/Department of Economics
Iowa Hog Operations
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
1,0
00
farm
s
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Mil
lio
n h
ea
d
Farms w/ Hogs Number of Hogs
University Extension/Department of Economics
Corn Energy-related Production Costs
Source: USDA-ERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
$ p
er
acr
e
Fertilizer, lime and gypsum Chemicals Fuel, lube, and electricity
University Extension/Department of Economics
Fertilizer Use
Source: USDA-ERS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mill
ion t
ons
Nitrogen (N) Phosphate (P2O5) Potash (K2O)
University Extension/Department of Economics
Productivity
Source: USDA-ERS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Ind
ex
(19
48
= 1
)
Output Inputs Productivity
University Extension/Department of Economics
Change in Input Structure
Source: USDA-ERS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Ind
ex
(19
48
= 1
)
Capital Labor Energy
University Extension/Department of Economics
Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA, NYMEX
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-8
6
Jan-8
8
Jan-9
0
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
8
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
8
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
4
Jan-1
6
Jan-1
8
$ p
er
barr
el
University Extension/Department of Economics
Ethanol Production
0
3
6
9
12
15
Bill
ion g
allo
ns
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Bill
ion b
ush
els
Ethanol Corn
University Extension/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Mill
ion
bu
shels
University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: ISU Extension
Drying of DDG can be 30% of the energy costs of ethanol production
Fertilizer is ½ of the energy used in corn production.
University Extension/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 90.7
Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 158.7
Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 13,200
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 730
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 25 20
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,180 13,950
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,140 5,150 5,000
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,568 5,000 5,050
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,371 1,400 1,405
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,987 1,900 1,800
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,450 13,255
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 730 695
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.35 6.50
University Extension/Department of Economics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
Bill
ion G
allo
ns
Conventional Biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels
Biodiesel Additional Advanced Biofuels
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA
On-Farm Wind Power
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2004 2009
Ind
ex
(2000 =
1)
US IA
In 2000, US farms had roughly 360 wind turbines and IA farms had 17.
In 2009, US farms had roughly 1,845 wind turbines and IA farms had 57.
University Extension/Department of Economics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2004 2009
Ind
ex
(20
00
= 1
)
US IA
Source: USDA
On-Farm Solar Power
In 2000, US farms had 18,881 solar panels and IA farms had 42.
In 2009, US farms had 172,441 solar panels and IA farms had 564.
University Extension/Department of Economics
Liquid Fuel Usage2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per
Day) (Percent of 2006 Value)
United States 20.7 95% 98% 98% 100% 105%
Canada 2.3 100% 100% 100% 104% 109%
Mexico 2.1 71% 81% 90% 95% 100%
Europe 15.7 92% 92% 95% 96% 96%
Japan 5.2 88% 92% 96% 92% 90%
China 7.2 118% 139% 168% 192% 213%
India 2.7 89% 115% 144% 159% 174%
Africa 3.0 117% 120% 123% 127% 130%
Central and South America 5.7 116% 116% 119% 125% 133%
World 85.0 102% 107% 113% 119% 125%
Source: Energy Information Administration
University Extension/Department of Economics
Population2010 2030 2050
(billion) (billion) (billion)World 6.852 World 8.249 World 9.256
China 1.330
India 1.461
India 1.657
India 1.173
China 1.391
China 1.304
U.S. 0.310 U.S. 0.374 U.S. 0.439Indonesia 0.243
Indonesia 0.289 Indonesia 0.313
Brazil 0.201
Pakistan 0.243
Pakistan 0.291
Pakistan 0.184
Brazil 0.240
Ethiopia 0.278
Bangladesh 0.156
Nigeria 0.212
Nigeria 0.264
Nigeria 0.152
Bangladesh 0.211
Brazil 0.261
Russia 0.139
Ethiopia 0.162 Bangladesh 0.250
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base
University Extension/Department of EconomicsSource: USDA-NASS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1,0
00
acr
es
Corn Soybeans Hay OatsWheat Barley Potatoes RyeFlaxseed Sorghum Sugarbeets Sweet Potatoes
Crop Shifts