University of Hawai`i at Mānoa
Department of Economics Working Paper Series
Saunders Hall 542, 2424 Maile Way,
Honolulu, HI 96822 Phone: (808) 956 -8496
www.economics.hawaii.edu
Working Paper No. 18-2
The Khoikhoi Population, 1652-1780:A Review of the
Evidence and Two New Estimates
By Sumner La Croix
March 2018
TheKhoikhoiPopulation,1652-1780:AReviewoftheEvidenceandTwoNewEstimates
SumnerLaCroix
Dept.ofEconomics,UniversityofHawai‘i-Mānoa
March7,2018
Abstract
FourieandGreenconstructestimatesoftheKhoikhoipopulationoverthe1652-1780periodusingbenchmarksfortheinitialandterminalKhoipopulationsandbenchmarksforthepunctuatedpopulationdeclinesfromsmallpoxepidemicsin1713and1755.Ireviewtheevidenceunderlyingeachofthefourpopulationbenchmarksandargueforarevised1780benchmark.Qualitativeevidencealsopointstoahigherrateofpopulationdeclinebetween1652and1723andasmallerrateofdeclinebetween1723and1780.UsingtheFourie-Greenmethodologyandadopting3oftheir4populationbenchmarks,IdeveloptworevisedestimatesoftheKhoipopulationtosupplementtheoriginalFourieandGreenestimates.JEL:N17,J10&J11Keywords:Khoi;Khoikhoi;San;CapeColony;smallpox;populationdeclineAcknowledgements:IamindebtedtoFrankLewisandAlanDyeforinsightfulcommentsonanearlierdraft.
1
In1652theDutchEastIndiaCompany(VOC)establishedanoutpostinthe
SouthwesternCapewhereitspassingEastIndiesfleetcouldstoptorefreshsupplies
offoodandwater,illsailorscouldrecover,andshiprepairscouldbemade.Overthe
next70yearstheVOCrefreshmentstationtransformedintoaVOCcolony,with
settlersclaiminglandsextendinghundredsofmilesfromCapeTowntograzecattle
andsheepandtogrowcrops.Nomadicherdinggroups,knowncollectivelyasthe
Khoikhoi,Khoe,Khoiorthederogatoryterm,Hottentots,hadpreviouslygrazed
theirownherdsofcattleontheselandswhichwerealsousedbyhunter-gather
groups,knowncollectivelyastheSanorBushmen.Competitionamongthe
Khoikhoi,theSan,andDutchsettlersforaccesstoland,waterandlivestockledto
150yearsofviolentconflictandpopulationdecline.Afterlosingaccesstograzing
lands,manyKhoikhoialsolosttheirlivestockandbecameattachedtoDutchfarm
households,workingaslaborers,shepherds,andherders.SomeKhoikhoiandSan
groupswerepushedbeyondtheexpandingboundariesoftheDutchsettlement,
wheretheyfacedcompetitionwithotherKhoiandSangroupsandBantupeoples
whowerealreadyoccupyingandusingtheselands.ManyKhoikhoiperishedfrom
diseasesintroducedintoSouthAfricabycolonistsandcrewsandsoldiersfromships
stoppinginCapeTown.
HowbigwasthedeclineintheKhoiandSanpopulationsduringtheperiodof
DutchexpansionattheCape?Apreciseanswertothisquestionisimpossible
becausenoofficialcensusesofthesetwopopulationsweremadepriorto1805and
therearewidelyvaryingestimatesoftheKhoiandSanpopulationsin1652,when
2
theDutchrefreshmentstationwasestablished.Thefirstrecentattempttoestimate
thedeclineintheKhoiandSanpopulationswasmadebyJohanFourieandErik
Green(2015),whospecifiedpopulationbenchmarksfor1652and1780andused
themtocalculatea54percentdeclineinthetwocombinedpopulationsoverthe
128-yearperiod.Fortheir1652populationbenchmark,theyusedRichardElphick
andV.C.Malherbe’s(1989:3)estimateof50,000Khoikhoiin1652inthe“wholeof
thesouthwesternCape.”Forthe1780population,theyusedLeonardGuelke’s
(1974:248)estimateof20,000Khoikhoiand3,000SanintheentireCapeColonyin
1780.
FourieandGreenthenconstructannualpopulationestimatesforthe1652-
1780periodbyassumingthattheKhoipopulationdeclinedataconstantrate
between1652and1780,whilepunctuatedbytwomuchlargerannualdeclinesin
1713and1755duetosmallpoxepidemicsintheColony.TheyuseRobertRoss’s
estimatesofa20percentdeclineintheKhoipopulationduringthe1713epidemic
anda5percentdeclineduringthe1755epidemic.Undertheassumptionthatthe
annualrateofpopulationdeclinewasconstantinallotheryearsbetweenthe
populationbenchmarks,theycalculateanannualrateofpopulationdeclineforthe
entireperiodof-0.61percentandforthenon-smallpoxyearsof-0.42percent.
FourieandGreen’sestimateisbasedonfourpopulationbenchmarks—the
1652and1780populationestimatesandthe1713and1755estimatesof
populationdeclineduringthetwosmallpoxepidemics—andtheassumptionthat
populationdeclinedataconstantratebetweeneachpopulationbenchmark.My
objectiveinthisarticleistoreviewtheevidencesupportingeachofthepopulation
3
benchmarksandtoexaminetheassumptionofconstantpopulationdeclinebetween
eachbenchmark.Ibeginwithabriefsurveyandevaluationofalternativeestimates
oftheKhoipopulationin1652andconsiderhowuseofanalternative1652
populationbenchmarkwouldaffectthepatternandextentofdeclineintheKhoi
population.NextIreviewtheliteratureonsmallpoxepidemicsinavarietyof
differentpopulationsandfindthatFourieandGreen’sestimatesofpopulation
declineduringthe1713and1755epidemicsareconsistentwithrecentresearchon
mortalityoffirstpeoplesfromsmallpoxepidemics.Myreviewofthe1780
populationbenchmarkindicatesthatitshouldbereviseddownward,from23,000
SanandKhoikhoito20,000Khoikhoiinordertobeconsistentwiththe1652
benchmarkwhichonlyincludesKhoikhoi.Inaddition,severalfactorspointtoa
higherrateofpopulationdeclinebetween1652and1723andasmallerrateof
declinebetween1723and1780thanspecifiedbyFourieandGreen.Iconcludeby
providingtwoalternativeestimatesofKhoipopulationdeclineoverthefullperiod,
bothofwhichcorrespondcloselytotheestimateofpopulationdeclineoverthe
1652-1780periodofferedbyFourieandGreen.
I.EstimatesoftheInitialPopulationoftheSouthwesternCape
PopulationestimatesfortheKhoipopulationoftheSouthwesternCapein
1652varybyafactorof19,rangingfrom11,000to200,000.1Someofthevariation
inestimatescouldbeduetoobserversusingdifferentdefinitionsofthearea
encompassedbytheSouthwesternCape;employingdifferenttechniquesto
1AwiderangeofestimatesisalsotypicallyfoundforpopulationsoffirstpeoplesintheAmericas.
4
extrapolatefromanobservedsampletoapopulation;orspecifyingdifferenttime
periodsfortheirestimates.ConsidertheseestimatesoftheoverallKhoipopulation
andspecificKhoigroupsmadebytravelers,governmentofficials,socialscientists,
andhistoriansbetween1660and1992.
1660and1662EstimatesofCommanderJanvanRiebeeck.On26August
1660CommanderJanvanRiebeeckwroteinhisjournalthatjusttwoofthemany
KhoigroupsinthevicinityoftheCape—theChainaquaandtheCochoqua—
amountedtomorethan34,000people”(Moodie1960:213-214).2On5May1662
vanRiebeeckwrotetohissuccessorregardinghowmanyfightingmenvariousKhoi
groupscouldmuster.3HisestimateofChainaquanumberswasnowmuchsmaller,
asheconcludedthattheycouldmusteronly600-700fightingmen.4Usinga
conservativeextrapolationof1.5womenandchildrenperfightingman,thiswould
amounttoanoverallpopulationof1,500-1,750fortheChainaquain1662.
Inthesamememorandum,vanRiebeeckalsoprovidedestimatesofmenfor
threeotherKhoigroups(the“PeninsularKhoi”)wholivednearthesettlement:the
Goringhaiconas“whoare,exclusiveofwomenandchildren,notabove18menin
number”;theGoringhaiquas,who“exclusiveofwomenandchildren[have]about
300mencapableofbearingarms”;andtheGorochouquaswho“have,besides
2JanvanRiebeeck,Journal,26August1660astranslatedinMoodie(1960:213-214).vanRiebeeckwrotethattheChainaquas“farexceedtheCochoquasinnumbersofmenandcattle,andyetthelatteraresupposedtobefully17,000or18,000innumber…”3JanvanRiebeeck,MemorandumleftbyCommanderJ.vanRiebeeck,fortheinformationandguidanceofhissuccessorZ.Wagenaar,5MayI662,astranslatedinMoodie(1960:246-248).
5
womenandchildren,about6or700hundredmencapableofbearingarms.”5Using,
onceagain,anextrapolationof1.5womenandchildrenperfightingman,thiswould
amounttoanoverallpopulationof2,295–2,545forthesethreegroupsin1662.
Combiningthispopulationrangewiththe1662estimatesfortheChainaqua
population(1,500-1,750)andthe1660estimateoftheCochoquapopulation
(17,000-18,000)yieldsatotalpopulationforthefivegroupsrangingfrom20,795to
22,295.Usingthe1660estimatesforboththeChainaquaandCochoquapopulations
yieldsamuchhigherrangeof36,295to36,545.ManyotherKhoigroupswho
grazedcattleonlandsoutsidethevicinityoftheCape,includingtheGreatandLittle
Namaqua(discussedbelow),theInqua,theHessequa,theAttaqua,theUbiqua,the
Gouriquaandothergroupslivingfarthertotheeast,arenotincludedinvan
Riebeeck’sestimates.
1707EstimatebyPeterKolb.PeterKolb,wholivedattheCapefrom1705
to1713andservedastheColony’sfirstofficialastronomer,provideddescriptions
of16differentKhoigroupsinhisbook,ThePresentStateoftheCapeofGood-Hope:
or,AParticularAccountoftheSeveralNationsoftheHottentots.Whilehedoesnot
ventureanexplicitestimateoftheoverallKhoipopulation,Kolbobservedthatthe
GreatandLittleNamaqua,twoKhoigroupslocatedtothenorthoftheOlifantsRiver
were“ableonOccasion,totaketheFieldwith20,000fightingMen”(Kolb1731:67).
5JanvanRiebeeck,MemorandumleftbyCommanderJ.vanRiebeeck,fortheinformationandguidanceofhissuccessorZ.Wagenaar,5MayI662,inMoodie(1960:246-248).
6
Usinganextrapolationof1.5womenandchildrenperfightingmanwouldimplyan
overallpopulationforthesetwoKhoigroupsexceeding50,000in1707.
1811EstimatebyHinrichLichtenstein.HinrichLichtensteinwasa
EuropeanvisitortotheCapeColonyinthefirstdecadeofthenineteenthcentury.In
his1811bookheprovidedthelowestestimatesofthe1652population,just11,000
Khoikhoi.Lichtensteinstartedfromabasepopulationof30,000inthe1805census
andextrapolatedbackwardsto1652,usingtheassumptionthattheKhoipopulation
hadincreasedoverthepreceding153years.6Hisrationaleforthisassumptionwas
thattheKhoipopulationhadstabilizedandprosperedastheybegantoworkfor
Dutchsettlersaslaborers,shepherds,andherdersfromtheearlyeighteenth
century.
1837EstimatefromReportoftheParliamentarySelectCommitteeon
AboriginalTribes.ASelectCommitteeoftheBritishParliamentwasconvenedin
February1837toconsiderthestateofaboriginalgroupsinallBritishcolonies.A
groupofexpertsassistedtheCommitteeinpreparingitsJune1837Reportandit
providedoneofthehighestestimatesofthe1652Khoipopulation,concludingthat
“[f]romalltheaccountswehaveseenoftheHottentotpopulation,itcouldnothave
beenlessthan200,000”(BritishParliament,HouseofCommons1837:25-26).
6“Anexactestimatewasnotpossiblehere.However,ifonetooktheaccountsoftheoldestauthorsandifoneallowedforwhatoneknewaboutthesimplemeansoftheirsubsistence,thenumberofallHottentots[Khoikhoi]withintheboundariesofthecolonyinmydayshardlyexceeded10,000ahundredandfiftyyearsago.Thecensusof1805revealed30,000ofthem.”SeeLichtenstein(1811:37,note3).
7
1897EstimatebyGeorgeTheal.GeorgeMcCallTheal,theleadingSouth
Africanhistorianduringthelatenineteenthcentury,estimatedapopulationin1652
of45,000-50,000Khoikhoi.Theal(1897:126)wrotethatheconstructedhis
estimatefromvanRiebeeck’sestimatesofthepopulationofKhoigroups,whichare
“scatteredthroughouthiswritings.Wherehe[vanRiebeeck]hasgivenonlythe
numberofrightingmeninaclan,Ihavemultipliedthatnumberbyfivetorepresent
thetotalofmen,women,andchildren.Intwoinstanceshehasgivennoinformation
furtherthansayingtheclanswereaboutasstrongassomeotherswhichhehad
previouslynamed.”Theal’scountincludedtheCochoqua,theNamaqua,the
Chainaqua,thethreePeninsularKhoigroups,andtheChariguriqua,butleftoutthe
Hessequa,InquaandotherKhoigroupsfarthertotheeastthatmayhavehad
substantialpopulations.
1905EstimatebyGeorgeStow.Stowwasanamateurhistorianwho
workedwithknowledgeableethnologistsinthelatenineteenthcentury.His
estimateof35,000-40,000Khoikhoiinhabiting“thesouthernangleoftheAfrican
continent”in1652wasderivedfromvanRiebeeck’s1662estimatesofthenumber
offightingmen(2,268)thatfiveKhoigroups(Goringhaikona,Goringhaiqua,
Gorachouqua,Chariguriqua,andCochoqua)livingrelativelyclosetotheCapewere
abletomuster(Stow1905:246-248).7Stowusedanextrapolationof4.73-5.17
additionalpeopleinthegroupperfightingmantoestimateapopulationrangeof
7StownotedthatKhoigroups“werecertainlycongregatedmoredenselyfromtheCapetothenorthward,alongthewesterncoast,thantotheeastwardofthatpromontory;butevenhere[tothenorthward]theredoesnotappeartohavebeenasingletribeorclancapableofbringingtwoorthreethousandmenintothefield.”
8
13,000-14,000peopleforthefiveKhoigroups.Inordertoaccountforthe
populationoftheremainingKhoigroups,Stowincreasedthelowerboundofthe
rangebyafactorof1.69to35,000peopleandtheupperboundoftherangebya
factorof1.86to40,000people.
1969EstimatebyMonicaWilson.InaninfluentialchapterintheOxford
HistoryofSouthAfrica,theanthropologistMonicaWilson(1969:68)providedan
“informedguess”that“itislikelythatthetotalKhoikhoipopulationsouthofthe
Orange[River]wassomewhereabout200,000.”Shenotedthat“[t]hiswasthe
minimumfiguregiventheSelectCommitteeonAboriginesin1837,[fndeleted]and
ismuchclosertothereportsofeye-witnessesthanTheal’sestimateofforty-fiveto
fiftythousand”(Wilson1969:68).
1974EstimatebyLeonardGuelke.Inhisdissertation,thehistorian
LeonardGuelke(1974:28)statedthatit“appearslikelythattherewereasmanyas
200,000KhoikhoiinSouthAfricamidwaythroughtheseventeenthcentury”and
notedthathisestimate“isinsubstantialagreement”withthe200,000estimate
madebyMonicaWilson.Guelke’sestimatewasbasedonhisconclusionthatthe
Khoikhoi“madeeffectiveuseoftheavailableresources”andthat“[t]henumberof
personsthatcouldbeaccommodatedperunitareaoflandonthebasisofthe
Khoikhoi’ssystemofresourceusewasoftheorderofthreepersonspersquare
mile”(Guelke1974:28).
1977and1989EstimatesbyRichardElphick.Inhisclassicbook,Kraal
andCastle,RichardElphick(1977:23)estimatedthat“in1660therewerenomore
than100,000KhoikhoiinthesouthwesternCape.”Twelveyearslater,Elphickand
9
Malherbe(1989:3)offeredamuchlowerestimate,just“50,000inthewholeofthe
SouthwesternCape.”
1992EstimatebyLeonardGuelkeandRobertShell.Intheirstudyof
settlerdisplacementofKhoikhoifromtheirtraditionalCapegrazinglands,Leonard
GuelkeandRobertShell(1992:804-805)adoptedanestimateof50,000Khoi
“inhabitingtheareasouthoftheOrangeRiver”in1652.TheycitedElphick(1977,p.
23)astheirsource,buthis1977bookprovidedapopulationestimateof100,000
peoplefortheSouthwesternCape.GuelkeandShell(1992:805)notedthat50,000
peoplespreadoverthe130,000squaremilesoftheSouthwesternCapemeantthat
the“overallpopulationdensitywaswellunderonepersonpersquaremile”or,
moreprecisely,0.38persquaremile.ThiswasasubstantialchangefromGuelke’s
earlierconclusionthatSouthwesternCapelandscouldsupport3peoplepersquare
mile.
II.Evaluationof1652PopulationEstimates
Thelowerbound(11,000)estimateofthe1652Khoipopulationmadeby
Lichtensteinseemsimplausible.Lichtensteinmadethelowerboundestimateinthe
earlynineteenthcenturyundertheassumptionthattheKhoipopulationhadthrived
inthepresenceoftheDutchsettlers.HiscommentsmirrorthoseofFourieand
Green(2015)andGuelkeandShell(1992)regardinghowsomeoftheKhoi
populationwasabsorbedintosettlerfarmsfrom1685buthecompletelyfailsto
10
takeintoaccounteffectsofdisease,violentconflict,8anddeprivationofhabitaton
theoverallKhoipopulationfrom1652to1713.
Theupper-boundestimateof200,000for1652wasoriginallyputforthin
1837inareportcommissionedbytheBritishParliamentonthestatusofaborigines
inBritain’scolonies.The1652populationestimateintheReportofthe
ParliamentarySelectCommitteeonAboriginalTribesisextrapolatedfromvan
Riebeeck’sestimatesforparticularKhoigroups.IntestimonytoParliament,an
authoroftheReport,Dr.ThomasHodgkin,attributedKhoipopulationdeclineto
theiralcoholuse,theirlossoflandandcattleandtotheVOC’sincitementofviolent
conflictsbetweenKhoigroups.9Notably,thelasttworeasonsaretheonescitedby
modernhistoriansfortheKhoi’spolitical,economicanddemographicdecline.
Wilson(1969:68)revivedtheReport’sestimateof200,000Khoiin1652and
criticizedTheal’sestimateof45,000-50,000Khoikhoi,sayingthatthe200,000
estimate“wasmuchclosertothereportsofeyewitnesses.”10Guelke’s(1974:28)
8Theindirecteffectsofconflictmaybemoreimportantthandirectlosses.Khoikhoiwholosttheirlivestockortheiraccesstothelandsandwaterneededtosupporttheirherdsbecameincreasinglyattachedtosettlerfarmers(GuelkeandShell1992;FourieandvanZanden2013;FourieandGreen2015).ThedefeatoftheKhoikhoiintheSecondDutch-KhoiWar(1673-1676)andtheexpansionofsettlersontolandsandsourcesofwaterpreviouslyusedbyKhoiherdersweretwoforcesunderlyingKhoidecisionstoworkwithsettlers.RecentestimatesofthenumberofKhoikhoiattachedtosettlerfarmersbyFourieandvanZanden(2013)andFourieandGreen(2015)showsharpincreasesinthesenumbersafter1682.9TestimonyofDr.ThomasHodgkin,HouseofCommons(1836:455-457),9May1836.SeeMarks(1972)fordiscussionofKhoi-settlerinteractions.10TestimonyofDr.ThomasHodgkin,HouseofCommons(1836:455-456),9May1836.Hodgkin’stestimonytotheSelectCommitteeindicatedthattheCommitteestaffemphasizedeyewitnessreportsfromtravelers“whohavevisitedtheextremityofAfricaataremoteperiod,andspeakofitashighlypopulous…”
11
adoptionofa200,000initialestimatehasdifferentroots,asitstemsfromhis
hypothesisthatthecarryingcapacityoflandsintheSouthwesternCapewasthree
peoplepersquaremile.Later,hereducedhisestimateofthecarryingcapacityof
Capelandtojust0.38peoplepersquaremile,andthisledtoarevisionofhisinitial
populationestimateto50,000people.11
Stow’sinitialestimateof35,000-40,000Khoikhoiisbasedonextrapolations
ofthenumberoffightingmenmusteredbyvariousKhoigroupsasreportedin
GovernorvanRiebeeck’sjournalsandbyEuropeantravelers.Stowqualifiedhis
estimatebynotingthatitmightincludesomeSanpeopleduetopossibleconfusion
bytravelersregardingwhichgroupstheywereobserving.12RichardElphick
(1977:23)usedasimilarmethodologyinhis1977book.Heestimatedtheinitial
populationsofseveraldifferentKhoigroupsandaggregatedthemintoanestimate
of1652populationof100,000.Elphick(1977:23,fn1)thenqualifiedhisestimate,
notingthat“[t]hehighestpossiblefiguresforthetotalPeninsularpopulationare
8,000and,fortheCochoqua,16,000.ItisconceivablethattheChainouquaandthe
Hessequaweremorenumerous—say25,000each.ButtheGuriquaandLittle
Namaquapopulationswerebothsmaller.Thusatotalof100,000isalmostcertainly
11TheextentoftheCapecoveredbyeachestimatecouldbedifferent,astheestimateof50,000peopleisfor130,000squaremiles,whereastheestimateof200,000peopleat3peoplepersquaremileisconsistentwithanareaof66,667squaremiles.Forcontext,notethattheWesternCapeProvinceofSouthAfricaencompasses49,981squaremiles.12Stow(1905:248)alsonotedthat“theseCapetribeswereneitherallannihilated,norreducedtoserfdom,butthataconsiderablenumberfledfromthedangerwhichthreatenedthemandmigratedtothenorthandnorth-east,andthattheirdescendantsarenowtobefoundamongstthepresentKoranasandGriquas.”
12
onthefarsideofthetruth.”ThegeographicextentoftheSouthwesternCapewas
notexplicitlydefinedinthebookbutfromthediscussionofthegroupsincludedin
theestimate,itclearlyencompassedareatotheeastoftheBreedeRiverinhabited
bytheHessequaandareatothenorthoftheOliphantsRiverinhabitedbytheLittle
Namaqua(LittleNamaqualand).
Elphick’spraiseofGeorgeMcCallTheal’sestimateof45,000-50,000Khoikhoi
foreshadowedanewestimateofferedbyElphickandMalherbeina1989articleof
50,000KhoiintheSouthwesternCape.They(1989:3)definedtheextentofthe
SouthwesternCape,relativelynarrowly,encompassing“landssouthandwestofa
linerunningfromtheOliphantsRivermouthtomodernTulbaughandthencetothe
mouthoftheBreedeRiver.”ThisgeographicareawouldexcludetheLittle
Namaqua,theGreatNamaquaandtheHessequafromtheirpopulationestimate.
GivenKolb’sestimateof20,000NamaquafightingmenandElphick’sownearlier
estimatethattheHessequamighthave25,000people,theexclusionofthesetwo
groupsmightaccountforthedifferencesinElphick’stwoestimates.13
Doestheevidencesupportthe1652populationbenchmarkof50,000
Khoikhoi?Giventhequalityoftheevidence,yes.Itis,however,importantforthe
geographicscopeofthe1652and1780benchmarkstobecomparable.The1780
benchmarkencompassedtheentireCapeColonybutexcludesNamaqualandand
13NogeographicdefinitionoftheSouthwesternCapegoesbeyondtheOrangeRiver.BecausetheGreatNamaquausedgrazinggroundsonbothsidesoftheOrangeRiver,theymayormaynotbeincludedinestimatesoftheKhoipopulationintheSouthwesternCape.Itwould,however,behardtoreachthe200,000estimateofthe1652Khoipopulationwithoutincludingthem.
13
thereforeshouldexcludeboththerelativelysmallpopulationoftheLittleNamaqua
andtherelativelylargepopulationoftheGreatNamaquafromtheestimates.Ifwe
addtogetherElphick’supper-boundpopulationestimatesfortheHessequa
(25,000),Chainaqua(25,000),PeninularGroups(8,000),andCochoqua(16,000),
thisyieldsanupperboundestimateof74,000.Giventhespeculativenatureof
Elphick’spopulationestimatesfortheHessequaandChainaqua,perhapsthebest
estimateofthe1652populationremains50,000,withthisestimate,toparaphrase
Elphick(1977:23,fn1),“almostcertainlyonthelowsideofthetruth.”
NoneoftheinitialestimatesintentionallyincludetheSanpopulation.Guelke
(1974:246)concludedthattheSanpopulationin1652was15,000peopleandthatit
remainedrelativelyconstantoverthefirstcenturyofcontact.Otherhistorianshave
concludedthattheSanweremuchlessaffectedthantheKhoikhoibyDutchsettler
expansionuntilthe1720s,whenDutchsettlementbegantoexpandtotheNortheast
intomountainousareasandintothedrierplainstotheeastintheGraff-Reinert
region.Penn(2005:117)concludedthat“…after1740,thegreatbruntof
commandoactivity[raidingpartiesconductedbysettlers]fellprimarilyonhunter-
gatherersocieties.”AttemptsbytheDutchtoexterminatetheSanexpanded
dramaticallyduringthe1760sand1770s,withthousandsofSandeaths
documented(Penn2005;Adhikari2011).14
14SanandKhoipopulationsweresomewhatfluidduringthefirst100yearsofDutchsettlement,withKhoifamilieswholosttheirlivestocktosettlerraids,disease,ordroughtsometimesabsorbedintotheSanpopulation.TheSanwereinaverydifferentsituationvis-à-visthesettlersthantheKhoi,astheyhuntedwildgameandpoachedbothKhoiandsettlerlivestock.DutchsettlersandKhoigroupsreactedbyorganizingcommandoraidstokillSan
14
IV.TheDeclineinKhoikhoiPopulation,1652to1713
ResearchersdifferregardingtheextentofthedeclineintheKhoipopulation
overtheColony’sfirst60years.FourieandGreen’spopulationestimateassumesa
constant-0.4percentannualdeclineintheKhoipopulationduringtheyears
withoutsmallpoxepidemics:1652to1712,1714to1754,and1756to1780.There
is,however,someevidencethatpopulationdeclinemayhavebeenlargerandmore
punctuatedinthe1652-1712periodthanintheothertwoperiods.The
archaeologistAndrewSmith(1989:25)notedthattheKhoikhoiexperiencedeight
otherdocumentedboutswithinfectiousdiseaseotherthansmallpoxovera30-year
period,1658-1687.15Consider,forexample,thisentryfromCommandervan
Riebeeck’sjournalon29October1658:16
She[Eva]wastoldthatDomanwasdailyputtingusuponourguardagainst
theCochoquas,sayingthattheyweremuchincensedagainstus,andwould
burnourhouses,killourpeople,&c.andthathehadthereforeaskedusto
lend20soldierstofighttheCochoquas,andtaketheircattle,becausethey
werenowalmostallsick,andattheirweakest,&c.
malesandtakeSanwomenandchildrenprisoner.SeeAdhikari(2008)forasummaryoftheacademicliteratureontheSanandtheDutchcampaignstoexterminatethem.15Moodie(1960:241,272,291,336,363,370,386,420).16Moodie(1960:146).
15
Orthis“PublicWarning”fromCommandervanRiebeeckon24November1661:17
Whereasthenativesofthiscountry,theSaldanharsandCaepmans,haveat
presenttheirhousesandcattlecloseby,…andwhereasthereisnowamong
them,butparticularlyamongtheirlivestock,agreatsickness…
OrthisexcerptfromaletterfromCommanderWagenaarandthePolicyCouncil,to
theHerrenXVIIonMay16,1666:18
TheCochoquas…wereformerly,withthekraalsundertheirauthority,so
strong,thatbothtogethermighthavemusteredthreethousandmencapable
ofbearingarms;buttheywere,sometimeago,verymuchdiminishedand
meltedawaybyasicknesswhichprevailedamongthem.
OrthispassagefromtheCompany’sJournalfor8December1673:19
CaptainClassandsomeofhisgrandeescametostate,thatforafewdays
back,therehadbeenaninfectiousdiseaseamonghispeople,ofwhom9or
10malesorfemaleshadalreadydiedverysuddenly;thistheyregardasa
badomen,fornoparticularlyseveresicknessesareknownamongthem;and
Deathusuallycontentshimselfwitholdwornoutpeople.
17Moodie(1960:241).18Moodie(1960:291).19Moodie(1960:336)
16
Elphick’sdiscussionofthe1713smallpoxepidemic(“TheFinalCatastrophe”)
isprefacedbyadiscussionofa“thirdKhoi-Dutchwar”in1701-1703,inwhichthe
DutchrebuffattacksfrombothSanandKhoigroupsandreactbyfortifyingthe
frontier.Heemphasizedreportsfromanexpeditionin1705throughtheregionto
thenorthoftheCapebyJohannesStarrenburgh,alandrost(localofficial).
Starrenburgh’stour“revealedableakpanoramaofdesolation”amongtwomajor
Khoigroups,“theGuriquaandtheGonnemaCochoqua.”Therewerefewkraalsto
befound,andevenfewerwhichhadmuchstock.”20Elphickpaintsapicturecirca
1705inwhich“allstrataofcolonialsocietysaweasyandattractivepickingsinthe
livestockofacrumblingnativesociety.”21Inthiscontext,the1713smallpox
epidemichitKhoigroupsthatwerealreadyreelingfromtheeffectsofpastdisease
outbreaks,warwiththeDutchandotherKhoigroups,lossofterritory,andforced
tradeswithEuropeansettlers.
V.The1713SmallpoxEpidemic
Elphick(1977)andElphickandMalherbe(1989)havefollowedThealand
otherprominentSouthAfricanhistoriansinidentifyingthe1713smallpoxepidemic
intheCapeColonyasasignaleventintheCape’spopulationhistory,andhistorians
havegenerallyquarreledonlyabouttheextentofthepopulationdeclineratherthan
itsimportance.22IntroducedviaafleetofvisitingshipsinApril1713thatslipped
20Elphick(1977:226).21Elphick(1977:229).22GuelkeandShell(1992:804,fn1)notedthat“Theal's[G.M.Theal,HistoryofSouthAfrica(London,1922),III,pp.475-77]emphasisonthedisastrousimpactofthesmallpox
17
throughtheCape’squarantineprocedures,theepidemicledtolargedeclinesinthe
Colony’spopulations.23Theal(1909:432)concludedthat“nearlyonefourthofthe
Europeaninhabitants”ofCapeTownlosttheirlivesfromtheepidemic.Population
estimatesbyPeitervanDuinandRobertRosscompiledfromtheOpgaff(tax)rolls
showthattheEuropeanpopulationoftheentireColony(excludingcompany
employees)declinedby20.2percentbetween1712and1713(vanDuinandRoss
1987;Ross1977).TheslavepopulationinCapeTownfellbyasimilaramount(20.8
percent),whiletheslavepopulationinruralareasactuallyroseby5.8percent,
perhapsinresponsetoslavepurchases(Ross1977).
WhatdoweknowabouttheimpactoftheepidemicontheKhoipopulation?
ElphickandMalherbe’s(1989)andPenn’s(2005)accountsofthe1713epidemic
epidemicof1713hasfoundsupportamonglaterhistorianssuchasW.M.MacMillan,J.S.Marais,P.J.VanderMerweandMonicaWilson.”Forexample,IntheOxfordHistory,MonicaWilsonwrotethat"thesmallpoxepidemicsof1713,1755and1767sodecimatedtheKhoikhoithat
theverynamesofsomehordeswereforgotten."WilsonreferencesSchapera
(1930)forthisquote.23Thestandardstoryoftheoriginsofthe1713epidemicisthattheviruswasintroducedbyclothingsentashoreforlaundering.CarlosandLewis(2012)notethat“[a]lthoughdropletsorscabsthatfallonbeddingorclothingremaininfectiousinprinciple,laboratorytestsusingvacciniavirusindicatethatinfectionisunlikelybecauseofhowthematerialishandledbytherespiratorytract.Also,inexperimentsonthepersistenceofinfectivity,ithasbeenfoundthatthevirusisrapidlyinactivated,evenonheavilycontaminatedobjects.Thereareinstancesoflaundryworkerscontractingsmallpox,butthedocumentedcasesofsmallpoxtransmissionviafomitesareveryrare.”SeeFenneretal.(1988:194).Othersourcessurveyinghistoricalepidemics,e.g.,Hopkins(1995),notecontaminatedclothingandbeddingaredocumentedbutraresourcesofvirustransmission.TheU.S.CentersforDiseaseControlandPreventioninitsdiscussionofsmallpoxtransmissionstatesthatsmallpox“scabsandthefluidfoundinthepatient’ssoresalsocontainedthevariolavirus.Theviruscanspreadthroughthesematerialsorthroughtheobjectscontaminatedbythem,suchasbeddingorclothing.Peoplewhocaredforsmallpoxpatientsandwashedtheirbeddingorclothinghadtowearglovesandtakecaretonotgetinfected.”Availableathttp://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/transmission/index.html(Lastaccesson20September2016).
18
arepartlybasedonaVOCjournalentry(13Feb.1714)aboutseveralsurviving
KhoikhoiinthePiketbergarea—morethan100kilometresnorthofCapeTown—
whovisitedtheCastleandpaintedahorrificpictureofpopulationlossesof90
percent,includingallfourofthegroup’sleaders.ElphickandMalherbe(1989:22)
contendedthattheepidemicwasnotconfinedtoApril-November1713butrather
“continueditsdestructivecourseafter1713.FromthesouthwesternCape,itspread
northtotheTswanaandthenbacktotheLittleNama(around1722-24),among
whomitcausedgreatdisruptionofsocialandeconomiclife.”PennwrotethataVOC
companysoldierreportedinNovember1714that“theKhoikhoiwerenowscattered
inan‘unorganized’mannerandverypoorlysuppliedwithcattle.”24Elphickand
Malherbe(1989:21)concludedthatitmayhaveresultedinanupto90percent
declineintheKhoipopulationoverthefollowingdecade,aperiodofdroughtand
cattlediseasethatravagedbothKhoiandsettlerherds.25Theirmajorargument
supportingthelargedeclineisthat“theKhoikhoivirtuallydisappearedfromthe
[VOC]recordsofsubsequentyears”(ElphickandMalherbe1989:21).
UsingElphickandMalherbe’sinitialpopulationestimateof50,000Khoiin
theSouthwestCape,the90percentlossinKhoipopulationwouldhaveleftjust
5,000Khoikhoi.InlightofGuelke’spopulationestimatefor1780of20,000
Khoikhoi,the90percentdeclineintheirpopulationseemsimplausible.TheKhoi
populationwouldhavehadtogrowataveryrobustannualrateofroughly2.1
24CapeArchives,LeibbrandtManuscripts18,LettersReceivedbyCouncilofPolicy,9Nov.1714,asquotedinPenn(2005:43,298).25InhisclassicstudyofsettlerinteractionwithKhoigroups,Elphick(1977:233)concludedthatthe1713smallpoxepidemicledtothelossofamajorityoftheKhoipopulation.
19
percentinordertoincreasefrom5,000peoplein1723tothe1780population
benchmarkof20,000people
InspiteoftheanecdotalevidenceforaKhoimortalityratein1713exceeding
50percent,FourieandGreen(2015)followRobertRoss(1977)andAndrewSmith
(1989;1990)inspecifyingamuchlowerKhoimortalityrate,20percent,fromthe
1713smallpoxepidemicthanearlierwriters.Thisisbecausea50percent
mortalityratefromaspecificsmallpoxepidemicliesfaroutsidetherangeof
documentedsmallpoxepidemics,eveninpopulationsoffirstpeopleswho
ultimatelyexperiencedoverallpopulationdeclinesexceeding80percentafter
exposuretowesterndiseases.26
IntheirstudiesofsmallpoxepidemicsintheAmericas,MasimoLiviBacci
(2011)andAnnCarlosandFrankLewis(2012)haveechoedtheskepticismofRoss
andSmithregardingmortalityratesinthetwoCapesmallpoxepidemics.LiviBacci
(2011:164)foundthatsomeAmericanpopulations,suchasindigenouspopulations
inthemissionsofParaguay,werehitbyaseriesofmajorepidemics,including
smallpox,yetsufferedonlytemporarypopulationdeclines.CarlosandLewisre-
examinedtheHudsonBaysmallpoxepidemicof1781-1782andloweredprevious
estimatesofpopulationdeclinefrom50-90percenttoamaximumof20percent.
Theysurveyedcasefatalityratesinothersmallpoxepidemicswithverifiable
26Hawai‘iprovidesagoodexampleofanindigenouspopulationthatdeclinedby85-95percentaftercontactwithEuropeansin1778.Aninitialpopulationof400,000-500,000peoplein1778declinedtojustover44,000nativeHawaiiansinthe1884Census.Asmallpoxepidemicin1853accountedfor5,000-6,000deaths,whichwaslessthantenpercentofthenativeHawaiianpopulationinthe1853Census(Bushnell1993).
20
populationlossesandhaveconcludedthattherangeofcasefatalityratesislimited
to5-40percent.Thisreducesdramaticallythepotentialmortalityofanepidemic,
evenif50-60percentofapopulationbecomeinfected(Fenneretal.1988).27If
incidenceweretobelimitedto50percentofhouseholds,thiswouldlimit
populationlossesfromasingleepidemictoroughly20percentofthepopulation.28
CarlosandLewisdonotconsiderthe1713CapeColonyepidemicintheiranalysis,
buttheir20percentcapforpopulationlossfromasingleepidemiccorrespondsto
upper-boundestimatesbyRoss(1977)andSmith(1989,1990)fortheeffectofthe
1713smallpoxepidemicontheKhoipopulation.29
DidcasefatalityratesamongtheKhoiinthe1713epidemicfallintothe
Carlos-Lewisrangeof5to40percent?Theal(1897:428;1909:433)wrotethatKhoi
casefatalityratesapproached100percentwhileEuropeanrateswerelessthan50
percent.30
27Foracontraryview,seeRiley(2010).28Steffenson(1977:49)estimatedthatthemortalityrateinIceland’s1707-1709smallpoxepidemicwas26.4percent,wellabovemortalityratesinotherpost-1700westernepidemics.Steffensen’sestimateisbasedonspecificcountsofsmallpoxdeathsfrom6of10Icelandcommunes.Steffensenarguedthatmortalityrateswerehighpartlybecausethenumberofpeoplewhowereillsimultaneouslyreducedtheabilityofpeopletocareforeachother.29Ross(1977:422)concludedthattheKhoipopulation“sufferedasbadlyasthewhitesandslavesalongsidethem,perhapsworse,”fromthe1713epidemic.Ross(1977:421)estimatedwhiteandslavelossesat“around20percent”andlaterinthesamearticlefoundthatKhoipopulationlossesmusthavebeenlessthan30percent.ThisisbecausewhiteandslavemortalityratesweresmallerinruralareaswherealmostallKhoilived.SeeRoss(1977:422-23).30E.H.Burrows(1958:64)providedsomeinformationonthecasefatalityrateofEuropeansettlersinthe1767smallpoxepidemic.AlthoughconfinedtoCapeTown,roughly2,000Europeansettlerscontractedsmallpox.Only179died,acasefatalityrateofjust9percent.
21
AmongtheHottentots[Khoikhoi]thediseasecreatedthegreatesthavoc.Of
theEuropeanswhoweresmitten,morerecoveredthandied;butwiththe
Hottentots,tobeillandtodieweresynonymous.
TwoentriesintheVOC’sDagregisterprovideconflictingevidenceontheincidence
ofsmallpoxamongtheKhoikhoi.On6May1713,anentryread:31
EventhepoorHottentots[Khoikhoi]arenotfree,butdisastrouslydonot
knowthediseaseand,haveneverseenitand,inconsequenceofthismedical
ignorancearethusverydisastrouslysmitten.
AnotherDagregisterentryfrom19May1713statedthatsomeKhoiwithsmallpox
whofledinlandwerekilledbyKhoigroupstheyencounteredwhowerewaryof
beinginfected:32
TodaythenewswasreceivedthatsomeofthesurvivingCapeHottentots
[Khoikhoi],whowishedtoescapethesicknessbyfleeingoverthemountains
toanothertribehavebeenmostlykilledbythelatter-withtheexceptionofa
fewwhoescaped-forfearthatthepoxshouldbreakoutamongthem:a
rigourouspolicy.
31AsquotedinandtranslatedbyRoss(1977:417).32AsquotedinandtranslatedbyRoss(1977:417).SeealsoTheal(1909:433).
22
Suchharshpreventionmeasurescouldhavereducedthespreadofsmallpoxamong
ruralKhoipopulationsand,thus,theoverallmortalityratebeyondCapeTown.
Onitssurface,aDagregisterentryfor28November1713providessome
supportforahighcasemortalityratefortheKhoipopulation.33
…washeardmoretobewailaboutthesmallpoxwhichrecentlyreignedhere
(althoughithasnottotallyceased;inDrakensteinColonypeoplearestill
afflicted).CornreapingisathandandthemajorityoftheHottentots
[Khoikhoi]whousedtoservethefarmershavebeencarriedoff,sothatsome
ofthem[thefarmers]arehelpingwiththescything,somethinghereoutside
normalusage.
AvisitortotheCape,FrançoisValentijn,statedthat“theHottentots,theydiedasif
byhundreds,sothattheylayeverywherealongtheroadsastheyfledinlandwith
kraals,huts,andcattle,allcursingtheDutchwhotheysaidhadbewitchedthem.”
Valentijnthennotedthat“[a]fterwardsasaresult(asIfoundin1714)veryfew
Hottentotsweretobeseenherecomparedwithpreviously,thiscausingverygreat
inconveniencetotheBurghersandotherinhabitantswhonowlackedtheirservice
…especiallyinthecuttingandgatheringofcornandgrapes”(Valentijnn1971:217,
219).Smith(1989:25)concludedthattheshortageofworkersfortheharvestwas
notsolelyduetoKhoipopulationlossesbutalsotoareluctanceofsurvivorstocome
backtotheareaaftertheepidemichadendedexactlybecausetheybelievedthe
Dutchhadbewitchedthem.
33AsquotedinandtranslatedbyRoss(1977:417).
23
Afterthe1713epidemic,theColonysufferedfromtwoyearsofdrought
(1715-1716)andthensevenyearsofcattledisease(1716-1723).Intheir
discussionsofKhoipopulationdecline,Elphick(1977)andElphickandMalherbe
(1989)arguedthatdeclinesinthesizeofKhoiherdsduetodrought,cattledisease,
andthelossofgrazinglandscontributedtoabreakdownintheKhoi’ssocialfabric,
governancestructure,andpopulation.Elphick(1977)stressedthattheKhoi
populationdependedonthestockofcattleavailabletofeedthem.Whilethereisno
quantitativeinformationregardingchangesinKhoicattleinthedecadefollowing
1713,thereissomewhatreliableinformationregardingchangessettlercattleand
sheepstocks(Figure1).Theserevealasharpdownturnbetween1711and1717,
withthenumberofcattlefallingfrom20,743to15,298andsheepfrom116,256to
62,220.Fiveyearslaterin1722neitherstockhadrecovered,withcattlecountsat
15,336andsheepcountsat66,593.Sincethedeclineinthesettlers’stockofsheep
andcattlehasbeenwidelyattributedtodroughtanddisease,asubstantialdeclinein
Khoianimalstocksisaplausibleinference.Andthatshouldalsohavebeen
associatedwithasmallerKhoipopulation.
VI.TheKhoiPopulationfrom1723to1780
The1652-1722periodwasmarkedbytwofrontierwars,eightidentifiable
outbreaksofinfectiousdisease,drought,amajorsmallpoxepidemic,andcattle
diseaseoutbreaks.Bycontrast,the1723-1780periodhasonlyonemajorevent,the
1755smallpoxepidemic,thatissufficientlylarge,a5percentdecline,towarranta
24
specialpopulationbenchmark.34Thepost-1723absorptionofmoreKhoikhoias
workersonsettlerfarmsisalsonotable.FourieandGreen(2015:201-207,Figure2)
andFourieandvanZanden(2013)estimatethatafter1727,thenumberofKhoi
whowereemployedonsettlerfarmsincreasedmorethaneight-fold.TheKhoi’s
shiftfromindependentpastoralactivitiestoworkingonsettlerfarmssurelyreflects
theshrinkinglandbaseavailabletotheKhoitograzecattleandmayalsobean
indicatorofimprovedsocialstabilitythatcouldbeconsistentwithastabilizationof
overallKhoipopulationnumbers.Comparedwiththe1652-1722period,the1723-
1780periodprobablyhadalowerrateofdeclinefortheKhoipopulation.
Howreliableisthe1780benchmarkfortheKhoipopulation?Guelke’s
(1974:28)estimatesof20,000Khoiand3,000SanarederivedfromKhoipopulation
datafromtheearly1800s.Mostlikely,heisreferringtothecountofthe“Khoi,San,
andBastaards”population(20,006)inthe1805CapeColonyCensus.Guelke
(1974:247,note61)notedthathisestimatefor1780“assumedthatthefigurefor
1780wouldnotbeverydifferentfromthatoftwodecadeslater.”Guelke’sestimate
for1780—20,000Khoikhoiand3,000San—is,however,inconsistentwiththe1652
benchmarkestimateof50,000Khoikhoi,asthe1652estimatedoesnotincludethe
San.35Toensurethatthebenchmarkscomparethesamepopulationgroups,either
the1780estimateoftheKhoipopulationshouldbereducedto20,000orGuelke’s
34Itisgenerallyagreedthatthesmallpoxepidemicof1767wasmostlyconfinedtoCapeTownandhadlittleeffectontheKhoikhoilivinginruralareas.35The1805CensusdidnotcountKhoilivinginNamalandsnorthoftheOrangeRiveranddidnotcountKhoilivinginLittleNamaqualandandBushmanlandastheywerenotofficiallypartoftheCapeColony.
25
estimateofthe1652Sanpopulation,15,000people,shouldbeaddedtothe1652
benchmarkof50,000Khoikhoi.BecauseweknowlessabouthowtheSan
populationchangedoverthe1652-1713period,aconservativeapproachisto
compareKhoipopulationsateachbenchmarkdateratherthanthecombinedKhoi
andSanpopulations.Thus,the1780benchmarkshouldberevisedto20,000
Khoikhoitomakeitcomparablewiththe1652benchmark.
VII.ComparingSimulationsofCapeColonyPopulation
Figure2plotstheFourie-GreensimulationofKhoipopulationthatusestheir
initialandfinalpopulationbenchmarks,theirtwosmallpoxepidemicbenchmarks,
andassumptionofconstantratesofpopulationdeclinebetweenthepopulation
benchmarks.Forcomparison,Ialsoplotthreeadditionalsimulationsthatuseallof
theFourie-Greenassumptionsandpopulationbenchmarksbutfortheinitial
population.AdditionalsimulationsaremadeusinginitialKhoipopulationestimates
in1652of200,000(SelectCommitteeoftheBritishParliament1837),100,000
(Elphick1977),and40,000(Stow1905).
IprovidetwoadditionalsimulationsoftheKhoipopulationthatare
constructedusingthemethodologysetoutinFourieandGreen(2015).Inboth
simulations,ImaintainFourieandGreen’sassumptionsregardingKhoimortality
ratesinthe1713smallpoxepidemic(20percent)andthe1755epidemic(5
percent)aswellastheirinitialpopulationbenchmark(50,000people).Inthefirst
simulation,Iadjustthe1780Khoipopulationbenchmarkbyremovingthe3,000San
fromthebenchmarktomakeitconsistentwiththe1652populationbenchmarkthat
usesonlytheKhoipopulation.Usingthenew1780Khoipopulationbenchmarkof
26
20,000peopleandalloftheotherassumptionsmadebyFourieandGreen,Iobtaina
slightlyhigherrateofpopulationdeclineoverthe1652-1780period(-0.7v-0.6
percent)andaslightlyhigherrateofpopulationdeclineduringthenon-smallpox
years(-0.5v.-0.4percent).Thenewsimulation,“Fourie-Green-Adj”,isdisplayedin
Figure3alongwiththeoriginalFourie-Greensimulation.
Thesecondnewsimulation,“Revised”,buildsonthefirst,asitusesthe
adjustedKhoipopulationbenchmarkof20,000peoplefor1780aswellasthe
Fourie-Greenassumptionsregardingtheinitialpopulationandlossesfromthetwo
smallpoxepidemics.ItdiffersfromearliersimulationsofKhoipopulationbysetting
differentpopulationgrowthratesforfour“non-smallpox”periods:1652-1712,
1714-1723,1723-1754,and1756-1780.Particularevents(humandisease,animal
disease,drought,andwar)wereidentifiedaboveforthe1652-1712and1714-1723
periodsthatwerelikelytobeassociatedwithKhoipopulationdecline.Bycontrast,
therearenosucheventsforthe1724-1754and1756-1780periodsthatcouldhave
ledtopunctuatedKhoipopulationdeclinesandFourieandvanZanden(2013)and
FourieandGreen(2015)identifyanotherfactor,increasedKhoiattachmentto
settlerfarmingandgrazingventures,thatsurelycontributedtoKhoipopulation
stabilization.TheevidencepointstoagreaterdeclineintheKhoipopulationduring
the1652-1712and1714-1723periodsthaninthe1724-1754and1756-1780
periods.Thus,inthesecondnewsimulation,Iaccountfordifferencesinpopulation
growthoverthefournon-smallpoxperiodsbysettingKhoipopulationgrowthrates
equaltozerointhe1723-1754and1756-1780periods.Thisforcestheannualrate
ofKhoipopulationdeclineinthe1652-1712and1714-1723periodetoincreasein
27
thesecondsimulationfrom-0.42intheoriginalFourie-Greensimulationand-0.53
intheadjustedFourie-Greensimulationto-0.95.
Itisusefultorememberthatallthreeannualpopulationestimatesarebased
onjustfourdatapoints:RoughestimatesoftheKhoipopulationattwobenchmark
datesandroughestimatesofthepopulationdeclinesduringtwosmallpox
epidemics.Thesimulationsareusefulbecausetheyhelpusunderstandthe
implicationsofchangingbenchmarksforbenchmarkKhoipopulationsandbecause
takingqualitativeevidenceintoaccountprovidesaglimpseintohowsmallchanges
inassumptionscanaffectpopulationoverlongperiods.Forexample,intheFourie-
Greensimulation,theKhoipopulationfallsfrom50,000peoplein1652to31,875in
1713,a36.3percentdecline.Inthispaper’ssecondsimulation,theKhoipopulation
fallsfrom50,000peoplein1652to23,151in1713,a53.7percentdecline.Such
differencescouldbeimportantforunderstandinglong-standingdebatesinCape
history,assettlersmigratingtothesoutheastandnorthernpartsoftheCapeinthe
1720s,1730s,and1740scouldhavefacedlessresistancefromasmallernumberof
Khoikhoiand,perhaps,morewillingnessbythemuchsmallerandmore
disorganizedKhoipopulationstoworkforthesettlersaslaborers.
28
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31
Figure1:SheepandCattleonSettlerFarmsinCapeColony,1701-1750
Source:vanDuinandRoss(1987).
0
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
17011704
17071710
17131716
17191722
17251728
17311734
17371740
17431746
1749
Num
berofsheep
Num
berofCattle
Year
CattleSheep
32
Figure2:KhoiPopulationSimulations,1652-1780
Sources:Seetext.Note:They-axisisinlogarithmicscale.Thismeansthataconstantrateofpopulationdeclineappearsasastraightline.
10,000
100,000
16521660166816761684169217001708171617241732174017481756176417721780
KhoiPopulation
Year
Fourie-Green2015 Stow1905 Elphick1977 BritishParliament1836
33
Figure3:AlternativeKhoiPopulationSimulations,1652-1780
Source:FourieandGreen(2015).Note:They-axisisinlogarithmicscale.Thismeansthataconstantrateofpopulationdeclineappearsasastraightline.
8192
16384
32768
65536
1652 1660 1668 1676 1684 1692 1700 1708 1716 1724 1732 1740 1748 1756 1764 1772 1780
Khoi
Pop
ulat
ion
Year
Fourie-Green Fourie-Green-Adj Revised
