University of ManchesterOct. 2015

Kevin Anderson

web: kevinanderson.info

The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change

twitter: @KevinClimate

…is economic development possible without fossil fuels?

Nature Geoscience (doi:10.1038/ngeo2559) Mon. 12th Oct 2015

Anderson & Bows-LarkinBeyond ‘dangerous climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyJan 2011

“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”

Latest science reports from the IPCC

Offered no solace to our fossil-fuel hungry world

The mitigation message has changed little in the last twenty five years

So what has changed?

200 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted since last IPCC report in 2007

Annual emissions ~60% higher than at time of the first report in 1990

Atmospheric CO2 levels higher than during past 800 thousand years

So what has changed?

& importantly

in terms of temperature rise,

explicit recognition it’s carbon budgets that matter,

not long-term (2050) targets

We repeatedly recommit to:

… make our fair contribution to…

“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees

Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent

with science and on the basis of equity”

Copenhagen Accord, 2009

My headline conclusion:

Avoiding “dangerous climate change” (stabilisation at 2°C) remains a feasible goal of the international community

Just

My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C

But surely

… we can do it with low-carbon energy supply? 

 (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc.)

… we need deep & immediate reductions in energy demand

My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C

In 2015, it’s all about timing!

Thinking about this ‘graphically’

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

R

IO E

arth

Sum

mit

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

R

IO E

arth

Sum

mit

K

yoto

Pro

toco

l ado

pted

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

R

IO E

arth

Sum

mit

K

yoto

Pro

toco

l ado

pted

K

.P c

omes

into

forc

e

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

R

IO E

arth

Sum

mit

K

yoto

Pro

toco

l ado

pted

Cop

enha

gen

Acco

rd

K

.P c

omes

into

forc

e

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

R

IO E

arth

Sum

mit

Cop

enha

gen

Acco

rd

Rio

+ 2

0

K

yoto

Pro

toco

l ado

pted

K

.P c

omes

into

forc

e

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

UN

Clim

ate

chan

ge p

anel

est

ablis

hed

(IPCC

)

R

IO E

arth

Sum

mit

Cop

enha

gen

Acco

rd

Rio

+ 2

0 … despite economic downturn,    emissions continue to rise 2 to 3% p.a.

K

yoto

Pro

toco

l ado

pted

K

.P c

omes

into

forc

e

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

… & as we build hi-carbon

power stations Infrastructures buildings aircraft & ships

Lock

-in

30

to 1

00

+ y

rs

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

i.e. 4°C to 6°C by 2100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

Yet for a “likely” chance of

2°C

So recent history supports the IEA view

… that the CO2 trend “is perfectly in line with a 

temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”

Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist

… but what about 2°C?

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

4°C to 6°C

“likely” chance of 2°C

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

Too early for new

low carbonsupply &

demand

Reduce Demand

Supply

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

But this is a global analysis

& demand

Reduce Demand

Supply

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GCP new data

YEAR

Carb

on d

ioxi

de fr

om fo

ssil

fuel

& ce

men

t (Gt

CO2y

r-1)

& demand

Reduce Demand

Supply

“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees 

Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with 

science and on the basis of equity”

Assuming poorer (non-Annex 1) nations:

1. Collectively peak their emissions by 2025

2. Then rapidly increase mitigation to ~10% p.a. by 2035

… then, for 2°C, wealthy (Annex 1) nations require:

At least 10% reduction in emissions year on year from now,

… equivalent to:

40% reduction by ~2018 (c.f. 1990)

70% ~2024

90% ~2030

i.e. RADICAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS

If 2°C is too challenging

… what about a 4°C future

Global impacts: 4°C

+8°C

Europe

+6°C

China

+10-12°C

N. America

Hottest days

… add to heat-wave temps’

Global impacts: 4°C

Sea level rise50-200cm rise, higher

in low latitudes

Global impacts: 4°C

Food crops

~40%

reduction in

maize, wheat &

rice yields in low

latitudes

There is a widespread view that 4°C is… Incompatible with an organised global community

Beyond ‘adaptation’

Devastating to eco-systems

Unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points)

… consequently …

4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs

Returning to 2°C … is it still a viable goal?

Hypothesis: yes

Equity/behaviour - a small group to make radical & early reductions

Technology - demand side can deliver early & large reductions

Growth - there are alternative measures of a good life

… just

Equity: Pareto’s 80:20 rule

80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved

~80% of emissions from ~20% of population

run this 3 times

~50% of emissions from ~1% of population

Or more realistically:

~40% to 60% from ~1% to 5%

who are the high-emitters?

Climate scientists OECD (& other) academics Anyone who annually takes a long-haul flight or two …

2°C mitigation is principally a short-term challenge;

i.e. really now to 2025 - so is mostly about the few not the many

… it is a consumption and not a population issue!

Technology

Efficient petrol/diesel cars

A++ refrigerators

EU & US ~12-15% of emissions Sector’s emissions claimed to be intractable ~270 petrol/diesel models <100gCO2/km

… at no price premium

2/3 of car travel is by vehicles 8yrs old or younger

Private road transport (Cars)

So in this ‘intractable’ sector:

- With no additional capital cost- Reduced operating cost- Identical infrastructure- Same employment & companies

50% to 70% reduction in ~10yrs

Standards & existing petrol/diesel cars

A++ refrigerator uses 80% less energy than an A rated

Phased replacement of all A-rated (& below) with A++

CO2 saving of ~60% in 10 years

Refrigeration

Welfare: health, life expectancy

Literacy rates

Employment/income

Safety & security

Equity; time with family & friend's

Growth converts the heterogeneous into the homogeneous (£,€,HUF)

In itself it has no meaningful value

Growth: but what really matters?

Growth: a misguided proxy?

the economist’s economy has stalled!

self-regulated markets have failed to self regulate

Faced with systemic issues

         - neoclassical (‘free’ market) economics is in disarray 

         - incremental approaches to climate change have not delivered

We have an unprecedented opportunity to think differently

A Radical Plan for 2°C – 2 phases

1. Radical reductions in energy demand from now to ~2030

2. Marshall plan build programme of low-carbon energy supply

… with 100% penetration by 2030-40

We must escape the reductionist shackles of a twentieth century

mind-set if we’re ever to resolve the systemic challenges of the

twenty-first century

This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking, engaged

teams & difficult choices

Ultimately …

“at  every  level  the  greatest  obstacle  to transforming  the  world  is  that  we  lack  the clarity  and  imagination  to  conceive  that  it could be different.”

Robert Unger

and a message of hope to finish …

Thank you

University of Manchester Oct. 2015

Kevin Anderson

web: kevinanderson.info

twitter: @KevinClimate