University of Washington, Oct 27, 2005

Lightning Observations from Earth

and Space: Some Applications

Jim Weinman

Example of “TRMM” Merged Microwave-IR Example of “TRMM” Merged Microwave-IR

3 Hour Rain Product 3 Hour Rain Product

• This display on http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov runs ~ 10 hrs This display on http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov runs ~ 10 hrs behind real time. behind real time.

• Files are available via Files are available via ftp://aeolus.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/mergedftp://aeolus.nascom.nasa.gov/pub/merged . within ~ 5 hrs.within ~ 5 hrs.

• We need more frequent observations! We need more frequent observations!

Global Convection Diagnostic (GCD) : A Possible Thunderstorm Interpolator

(% Fred Mosher)

Tir = Twv

Tir >Twv

• For deep convective clouds, updraft brings cloud particles and water vapor to top of cloud. (IR and Water Vapor temperature are the same)• Clouds drifting away from lift will allow cloud particles to fall. Water Vapor will remain at original level. (IR and WV temperatures will be different)

Comparison of GCD and Lightning DistributionsComparison of GCD and Lightning Distributions

GCD LightningGCD Lightning

• Variable consistency, but both are continuous measurements.Variable consistency, but both are continuous measurements.

• GCD responds to vertical motion at the very top of clouds.GCD responds to vertical motion at the very top of clouds.

• Lightning depends on vertical motion deeper within clouds.Lightning depends on vertical motion deeper within clouds.

Core Satellite•Non-sun-synchronous orbitNon-sun-synchronous orbit ~ 65° inclination~ 65° inclination ~400 km altitude~400 km altitude•Dual frequency radar Dual frequency radar

(NASDA)(NASDA) Ku-Ka Bands (13.6-35 GHz)Ku-Ka Bands (13.6-35 GHz) ~ 4 km horizontal resolution~ 4 km horizontal resolution ~250 m vertical resolution~250 m vertical resolution•Multifrequency radiometer Multifrequency radiometer

(NASA)(NASA) 10.7, 19, 22, 37, 85, 10.7, 19, 22, 37, 85, (150/183 )(150/183 ) GHz V&HGHz V&H

•TRMM-like spacecraft (NASA)TRMM-like spacecraft (NASA)

Core Satellite•Non-sun-synchronous orbitNon-sun-synchronous orbit ~ 65° inclination~ 65° inclination ~400 km altitude~400 km altitude•Dual frequency radar Dual frequency radar

(NASDA)(NASDA) Ku-Ka Bands (13.6-35 GHz)Ku-Ka Bands (13.6-35 GHz) ~ 4 km horizontal resolution~ 4 km horizontal resolution ~250 m vertical resolution~250 m vertical resolution•Multifrequency radiometer Multifrequency radiometer

(NASA)(NASA) 10.7, 19, 22, 37, 85, 10.7, 19, 22, 37, 85, (150/183 )(150/183 ) GHz V&HGHz V&H

•TRMM-like spacecraft (NASA)TRMM-like spacecraft (NASA)

Constellation Satellites

3-hour goal at ~90% of 3-hour goal at ~90% of timetime

•Revisit timeRevisit time•Sun-synch & non-sun- Sun-synch & non-sun-

synch orbitssynch orbits•Pre-existing operational-Pre-existing operational-

experimental & experimental & dedicated satellites with dedicated satellites with PMW radiometersPMW radiometers

600-900 km altitudes

Constellation Satellites

3-hour goal at ~90% of 3-hour goal at ~90% of timetime

•Revisit timeRevisit time•Sun-synch & non-sun- Sun-synch & non-sun-

synch orbitssynch orbits•Pre-existing operational-Pre-existing operational-

experimental & experimental & dedicated satellites with dedicated satellites with PMW radiometersPMW radiometers

600-900 km altitudes

OBJECTIVES•Understand horizontal & vertical

structure of rainfall, its macro- & micro-physical nature, & its associated latent heating

•Train & calibrate retrieval algorithms for constellation radiometers

OBJECTIVES•Provide sufficient global

sampling to significantly reduce uncertainties in short-term rainfall accumulations

•Extend scientific and societal applications

Core Constellation

GPM Reference Concept

Mean Diurnal Rainfall and Lightning Cycles

CaPE Days 189-231M

ean

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

)

Hour (UTC)

Mean

C-G

Flash

Rate

•Current observation frequency may miss significant convective events.

•The situation has improved with addition of AQUA and 3 NOAA satellite with microwave sounders.

Motivations for Lightning MappingMotivations for Lightning Mapping

• Better determination of thunderstorm location and intensity in regions of poor Better determination of thunderstorm location and intensity in regions of poor radar coverage.radar coverage.

• Complements the storm information from radar.Complements the storm information from radar.

• Only technically feasible technology for oceanic and global coverage.Only technically feasible technology for oceanic and global coverage.

• Permits continuous observations.Permits continuous observations.

• Aviation (safety and routing)Aviation (safety and routing)

• Initialization of Numerical Models Initialization of Numerical Models

(places storms in right places;(places storms in right places;

redistributes energy )redistributes energy )

• Lightning detection is cheap.Lightning detection is cheap.

SomeRelationships

in Model & Observations

From Ziegler et al. (2003)

Graupel mass

Lightning

Lightning rates are proportional to graupel mass, to graupel volume, to cloud ice, and to updraft mass flux

through the –10 C level

Compendium of LIS Flash Density vs IWC between 7-9 km

(1998-2000)

IWC (g/m2)

Schematic view of electrified cloud charge distributionSchematic view of electrified cloud charge distribution

•Total lightning (top panel) follows the precipitation (middle panel) and updraft (bottom panel) as storm grows and decays.

•C-C lightning starts a bit sooner and is more abundant than C-G

[After Goodman et al., 1988; Kingsmill and Wakimoto, 1991].

Evolution of storm growth and electrification.

Lightning Correlations with

Radar-Inferred Storm Properties

Consistently highest correlations with

Hail Probability or Severe Hail Probability or Hail Diameter

Area with 45 dBZ

( from MacGorman)

Also for maritime lightning?

3 June 2000: Bird City 11 June 2000: Idalia 1Parameter RL Confidence Level Parameter RL Confidence Level

VIL 0.78 99 VIL 0.70 9530dBZ Height 0.51 95 30dBZ Height 0.84 95Hail diameter NA NA Hail diameter 0.67 99Hail prob. 0.64 99 Hail prob. 0.79 95Svr hail prob. 0.72 99 Svr hail prob. 0.72 99Rotation 0.44 95 Rotation 0.12 --cells (45dBZ) 0.64 99 cells (45dBZ) 0.76 9545 dBZ Area 0.75 99 45 dBZ Area 0.85 95cells (10 km) 0.47 95 cells (10 km) -0.07 --

22 June 2000: Idalia 2 22 June 2000: BurlingtonParameter RL Confidence Level Parameter RL Confidence Level

VIL 0.45 95 VIL 0.84 9530dBZ Height 0.35 90 30dBZ Height 0.93 99Hail diameter 0.77 99 Hail diameter 0.85 95Hail prob. 0.62 99 Hail prob. 0.82 99Svr hail prob. 0.73 99 Svr hail prob. 0.85 95Rotation 0.27 -- Rotation 0.78 95cells (45dBZ) 0.69 99 cells (45dBZ) 0.76 9545 dBZ Area 0.89 99 45 dBZ Area 0.89 95cells (10 km) 0.70 99 cells (10 km) 0.78 95

24 June 2000: Haigler 29 June 2000: WheelerParameter RL Confidence Level Parameter RL Confidence Level

VIL 0.41 90 VIL 0.73 9930dBZ Height 0.46 95 30dBZ Height 0.67 95Hail diameter 0.31 -- Hail diameter 0.83 90Hail prob. 0.57 99 Hail prob. 0.58 99Svr hail prob. 0.29 -- Svr hail prob. 0.74 99Rotation 0.46 95 Rotation 0.72 95cells (45dBZ) 0.41 95 cells (45dBZ) 0.60 9945 dBZ Area 0.50 95 45 dBZ Area 0.86 90cells (10 km) 0.53 95 cells (10 km) 0.43 95

Empirical Rain Rate as a Function of Sferics Rate

Probability matched rain r rate, Ri(Fi) (mm/h) ,from

m microwave retrieval vs r sferics rate / 15 min .

∫Ri

0 (R) dR = ∫

Fi

0 (F) dF

Technique does not r require exact pixel- by-

xel exact pixel- by- pixel co-registration. ( (Zawadski & Claheiros)

Rai

nfa

ll R

ate

(mm

/h)

Rai

nfa

ll R

ate

(mm

/h)

Rai

nfa

ll R

ate

(mm

/h)

Lightning vs Convective Rain Rate from TRMM Microwave Imager

+ Sferics and from Solomon & Baker Model (1998)

Flash Rate (min-1) Flash Rate (min-1)

TMI convective rain over 0.6ox0.6o box vs sferics rate within 15 min of overpass.

Smooth curve was obtained from histogram matching

Rain rate vs Flash Rate from Solomon & Baker, (1998).

The smooth curve is an extrapolation of fitted curve from measurements on left.

Designation Designation Frequency Frequency Wavelength Wavelength

ELF ELF extremely low frequency extremely low frequency 3Hz to 30Hz 3Hz to 30Hz 100'000km to 10'000 km 100'000km to 10'000 kmSLF SLF superlow frequency superlow frequency 30Hz to 300Hz 30Hz to 300Hz 10'000km to 1'000km 10'000km to 1'000kmULF ULF ultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmVLF VLF very low frequency very low frequency 3kHz to 30kHz 3kHz to 30kHz 100km to 10km 100km to 10kmLF LF low frequency low frequency 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1km 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1kmMF MF medium frequency medium frequency 300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100m300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100mHF HF high frequency high frequency 3MHz to 30MHz 3MHz to 30MHz 100m to 10m 100m to 10mVHF VHF very high frequency very high frequency 30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1m30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1mUHF UHF ultrahigh frequency ultrahigh frequency 300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cm300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cmMW MW microwaves microwaves 3GHz to 100GHz 3GHz to 100GHz 10cm to 3 mm 10cm to 3 mmMmW MmW millimneter wave millimneter wave 100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm

Electromagnetic Spectrum TerminologyElectromagnetic Spectrum Terminology

VHF Lightning Mapping StationVHF Lightning Mapping Station

CommunicationAntennas

VHF SignalAntenna

Electronics Building

Site north of Chickasha, Oklahoma

3-dimensional lightning structure in MCSs

• VHF lightning mappers detect pulses of radiation produced by the electrical breakdown processes of lightning in a 5 MHz band within a subset of the VHF (50-120 MHz) band

• VHF pulses of radiation are then used to reconstruct the path (map) of CG and Cloud lightning discharges in 2D or 3-Dimensional Mapping within Network Perimeter

• 100-200 meter location accuracy

• Greater than 95% expected flash detection efficiency

• Reduces to 2-Dimensional Mapping well outside of the Network (~150 km)

• 2 km or better location accuracy

• Greater than 90% expected flash detection efficiency out to 120 km

Schematic view of LDAR Schematic view of LDAR

3-D lightning imaging from 7 stations + central processor3-D lightning imaging from 7 stations + central processor

Fort Worth WSR-88D Radar Fort Worth WSR-88D Radar Base Reflectivity Image Base Reflectivity Image

13 October 2001 at 0105 UTC13 October 2001 at 0105 UTC

DFW LDAR II Sources (red) and DFW LDAR II Sources (red) and NLDN CG Flashes (black) NLDN CG Flashes (black)

detected betweendetected between0103-08 UTC 13 October 20010103-08 UTC 13 October 2001

Area covered by WSR-88D Reflectivity, LDAR II Area covered by WSR-88D Reflectivity, LDAR II Total Lightning and CG LightningTotal Lightning and CG Lightning

from N. W. S. Demetriades, Ronald L. Holle and Martin J. Murphy (2004)

Example of LDAR data Example of LDAR data

• Plan position indicator comparable to radar (PPI).

• Side views show c-g and

c-c lightning.• Probability distributions

are shown in the upper right.

(from P. Krehbiel et al. 2002)

Designation Designation Frequency Frequency Wavelength Wavelength

ELF ELF extremely low frequency extremely low frequency 3Hz to 30Hz 3Hz to 30Hz 100'000km to 10'000 km 100'000km to 10'000 kmSLF SLF superlow frequency superlow frequency 30Hz to 300Hz 30Hz to 300Hz 10'000km to 1'000km 10'000km to 1'000kmULF ULF ultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmVLF VLF very low frequency very low frequency 3kHz to 30kHz 3kHz to 30kHz 100km to 10km 100km to 10kmLF LF low frequency low frequency 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1km 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1kmMF MF medium frequency medium frequency 300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100m300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100mHF HF high frequency high frequency 3MHz to 30MHz 3MHz to 30MHz 100m to 10m 100m to 10mVHF VHF very high frequency very high frequency 30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1m30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1mUHF UHF ultrahigh frequency ultrahigh frequency 300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cm300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cmMW MW microwaves microwaves 3GHz to 100GHz 3GHz to 100GHz 10cm to 3 mm 10cm to 3 mmMmW MmW millimneter wave millimneter wave 100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm

Electromagnetic Spectrum TerminologyElectromagnetic Spectrum Terminology

VLF Sferics Detection NetworksVLF Sferics Detection Networks

•UKMO ( Europe etc., Tony Lee et al.)UKMO ( Europe etc., Tony Lee et al.)

•STARNET ( Eastern US and Atlantic, NASA GSFC)STARNET ( Eastern US and Atlantic, NASA GSFC)

•WWLLN ( Global, NZ & UW)WWLLN ( Global, NZ & UW)

•Zeus ( Europe and Africa, Athens Observatory, Zeus ( Europe and Africa, Athens Observatory, STARNET- II)STARNET- II)

•PACNET ( Pacific, Hawaii, Steve Businger)PACNET ( Pacific, Hawaii, Steve Businger)

•Los Alamos Nat’l. Lab. ( US ) Los Alamos Nat’l. Lab. ( US )

Components of the STARNET Digital Receiver

Cheap accurate timing

Fast signal processing

Hi speed Internet

Determination of Arrival Time Difference (ATD)

We know neither the location of the event nor when it occurred.

We can only measure the ATD at pairs of receivers. That is an art form.

Pulse shape at a range of 6,000 Km

Pulse shape at a range of 15,000 Km

CorrelationΔtΔt

Arrival Time Differences Measured by Various Pairs of Five ReceiversArrival Time Differences Measured by Various Pairs of Five Receivers

Actual FlashActual Flash

Note that slight errors in measuring ATD can produce streaksNote that slight errors in measuring ATD can produce streaks

WWLLN: World-Wide Long-range Lightning NetworkWWLLN: World-Wide Long-range Lightning NetworkP.I.sP.I.s Dick Dowden & Bob HolzworthDick Dowden & Bob Holzworth

<http://webflash.ess.washington.edu><http://webflash.ess.washington.edu>

• Red circles identify operating receivers.Red circles identify operating receivers. (25 and more to (25 and more to come) Data collected over 40 min. Sizes of dots diminish in 10 come) Data collected over 40 min. Sizes of dots diminish in 10 min intervalsmin intervals

An Example of WWLLN Sferics Observations

Superimposed on IR Imagery from Geostationary Satellites.

Lightning Production

• To produce lightning, a storm’s updraft speed usually must be large enough to loft graupel in the mixed phase region. (> 6-7 m s-1)

• Graupel also scatters microwave radiation that is measured by passive radiometers on operational satellites.

Two-Hourly Distribution of Lightning in

1998 Ground-hog day Super-storm

(1400 UTC, Feb. 2 - 1200 UTC Feb. 3, 1998)

Power outage in Miami

Post-frontal convection,

Cloud Dynamics, Houze (1993)

p .472

Loop current trigger

SSM-I Microwave Image of Rainfall

Sferics Distribution on Dec. 24 1999

After

Before

NCEP Reanalysis of Xmas eve 1999 StormNote 960 mb minimum surface pressure

Designation Designation Frequency Frequency Wavelength Wavelength

ELF ELF extremely low frequency extremely low frequency 3Hz to 30Hz 3Hz to 30Hz 100'000km to 10'000 km 100'000km to 10'000 kmSLF SLF superlow frequency superlow frequency 30Hz to 300Hz 30Hz to 300Hz 10'000km to 1'000km 10'000km to 1'000kmULF ULF ultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmVLF VLF very low frequency very low frequency 3kHz to 30kHz 3kHz to 30kHz 100km to 10km 100km to 10kmLF LF low frequency low frequency 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1km 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1kmMF MF medium frequency medium frequency 300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100m300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100mHF HF high frequency high frequency 3MHz to 30MHz 3MHz to 30MHz 100m to 10m 100m to 10mVHF VHF very high frequency very high frequency 30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1m30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1mUHF UHF ultrahigh frequency ultrahigh frequency 300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cm300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cmMW MW microwaves microwaves 3GHz to 100GHz 3GHz to 100GHz 10cm to 3 mm 10cm to 3 mmMmW MmW millimneter wave millimneter wave 100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm

Electromagnetic Spectrum TerminologyElectromagnetic Spectrum Terminology

Coincident Observations at 2000UTC on 2/2/1998

85 GHz PCT VLFbrightness sfericstemperaturefrom TRMM

TRMM LIS NLDN C-Goptical strokesflashes

• Low PCTs correspond to intense microwave scattering by ice.• LIS observes lightning for 90s. (accuracy 4 km)• NLDN has limited range, ~ 400 km, for CG strokes,

Convective Rainfall Averaged over 0.5Convective Rainfall Averaged over 0.5oo x 0.5 x 0.5oo from TMI and Sferics from TMI and Sferics

Feb. 2, 1998 Feb. 2, 1998

From Chang et al.

Designation Frequency Wavelength

ELF extremely low frequency 3Hz to 30Hz 100'000km to 10'000 kmSLF superlow frequency 30Hz to 300Hz 10'000km to 1'000kmULF ultralow frequency 300Hz to 3000Hz 1'000km to 100kmVLF very low frequency 3kHz to 30kHz 100km to 10kmLF low frequency 30kHz to 300kHz 10km to 1kmMF medium frequency 300kHz to 3000kHz 1km to 100mHF high frequency 3MHz to 30MHz 100m to 10mVHF very high frequency 30MHz to 300MHz 10m to 1mUHF ultrahigh frequency 300MHz to 3000MHz 1m to 10cmMW microwaves 3GHz to 100GHz 10cm to 3 mmMmW millimneter wave 100GHz to 500GHz 3 mm to 0.6mm

Electromagnetic Spectrum TerminologyElectromagnetic Spectrum Terminology

Comparison of Microwave Observations of Himalayan Storm

topography

Snow covered Ice clouds

mountains . .

..

85 GHz 183 85 GHz 183 ++ 1 GHz 1 GHz

Comparison between PR radar and lightning in Himalaya Region, 6/8/03

PR RHI PR RHI

(solid line) (dashed line)

Note 40 dBZ

@ 17 km!LIS Location lightning of location transects

Red curve outlines topography

)

Lightning Data Assimilation into Weather

Forecast Models

Assimilation Period Forecast Period

-12 Hours 0 +12 Hours

Assimilation byAssimilation by• Estimating latent heat releaseEstimating latent heat release• Influencing the convective trigger functionInfluencing the convective trigger function

― Simply turn convection on or offSimply turn convection on or off― Influence character of convectionInfluence character of convection

• Nudging latent heating and IWV distributionNudging latent heating and IWV distributionFrom MacGormanFrom MacGorman

Rainfall Forecast from Assimilation using Convective Trigger Function

19 July, 2000

COAMPS Model82 X 70 X 30 grid, 22 km spacing

(from Mac Gorman)

0

3

6

9

12

m m

3-Hour Accum ulation Valid at 0600 UT

Model vs Accumulated Rainfall, 7/19/2000.

03-0600 UTC Model Rainfall 0600 UTC Composite

NWS Radar

From MacGorman0

3

6

9

12

m m

Continuous Modification of IWV Distributions Continuous Modification of IWV Distributions

Verification

Dry regionBogus IWV field

EFFECT ON MM5 OF INCLUDING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY

a) Only 0.5 of latent heating is utilized. Little improvement.b) 0.7 of latent heating is utilized. As good as modeled.c) 2 x latent heating used in model. Augmented rain band in correct

location. d) Latent heating perturbed by + 50% random noise. Rain band is similar to original retrieval.

Conclusion: Amount of latentheat is not critical, but location is.

Effect of including 6 hr lightning data into a 9 hr forecast

TRMM radar Control forecast

reflectivity cross section

@ 5 km (dBZ) lines: rain rate

(mm/h)

colors: vertical

motion (μb/s)

TRMM radar Lightning assim-

RHI display ilated forecast

-70

Global Flash Rate Density: LIS and OTD

Global Flash Rate Density: LIS and OTD

Courtesy of Hugh Christian, NASA/MSFC

NASA Lightning Mapper May Fly on GOES-R (2012) and possibly on TGM

Indirect Validation of Convective Activity (ECMWF)

Flashes /km2 /month

Mean of two 1-year ECMWF model runs T95 L60

5-year LIS/OTD climatology(Christian et al.,

2003)

(Lopez and Bauer,2005)

ZINGER! ECMWF IS GETTING INTO THE LIGHTNING GAME

The End

and Thank You

Cliff: This was an attempt to present hourly lightning activity in a cockpit

THE EXPERIMENT (AWC product Atlantic sector)

Floyd (9/99) and Lightning

Some Applications of CG Mapping

• Warning of the lightning hazard itselfWarning of the lightning hazard itself• Thunderstorm detection, particularly Thunderstorm detection, particularly

with poor or absent radar coverage. with poor or absent radar coverage. (agriculture, disaster forecasting, (agriculture, disaster forecasting, aviation safety and routing))aviation safety and routing))

• Storm system configuration, growth, Storm system configuration, growth, and reformationand reformation

• Initialization of Numerical Models Initialization of Numerical Models (storms in right places; redistribution (storms in right places; redistribution of energy)of energy)