Unless we act now: Impact of climate change on children

Kevin McMaster, GISPSenior Project Manager

Blue Raster

a UNICEF publication

The Problem:“There may be no greater, growing threat facing the world’s children – and their children – than climate change.”

Ask the Question:•How many children live in climate-affected areas, and how many will live in future climate-affected areas?

Where are children at risk of climate impact?• What climate impacts are of concern• Where are the children • Location and number• Current and future

• Where are the climate impacts expected• Current and future

Refine the Question:

Explore the Data: Population•Center of International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) 1-kilometer world population grid (2010)•United Nations 2015/2050 World Population and Population Under 18 (by Country)•Demographic and Health Surveys (USAID DHS Program) sub-national estimates and boundaries (close to 90 countries)

Explore the Data: CIESIN Population

Explore the Data: UN Population Estimates

Explore the Data: Country Boundaries•Derived from GADM 2.8•Updated to include all populated grid areas•Attributed UN Regions and Sub-Regions

Explore the Data: DHS Sub-Regional

Build the Model: Child Population

One-kilometer grid resolution

Explore the Data: Climate and Indicators• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)• World Resources Institute (WRI)• World Health Organization (WHO)• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)• World Bank

Explore the Data: Indicators

• Anemia• Low Birth

Weight• Stunting• Wasting• Human

Development Index

Explore the Data: Climate Change (temperature)

Explore the Data: Climate Change (precipitation)

Analyze the Model:•Compute Zonal Statistics by country and population for climate risks zones using flood, drought, severe weather and national indicators for poverty, disease and access to sanitation

Interpret the Results:•Microsoft Excel pivot tables were used as a flexible presentation of the results•Updated by user depending on section of the report being written•Summary charts and graphics

Interpret the Results: Pivot Table

Repeat as Necessary:•Added indicators (areas in conflict, development index)•Removed 2100 year population estimate to match climate models•Updated Country Boundaries for UN Cartography •Added UNICEF regions and subregions•Harmonized with UN population totals

Present the Results: More than half a billion children live in extremely high flood occurrence zones

Present the Results: More than 270 Million children live in extremely high flood occurrence zones with low access to improved sanitation

Present the Results: More than 160 Million children live in high or extremely high drought severity zones

Present the Results: More than 60 Million children live in high or extremely high drought severity zones with low access to safe water

Present the Results: More than 1.45 Billion children will live in areas where temperature will increase by >2 degrees under “business-as-usual” scenario. Drops to 150 Million under “highly ambitious” scenario.

Present the Results: Story Map (coming soon)

Present the Results: Web AppBuilder Tool

Make a Decision:1. Cut greenhouse gas emissions so that global temperature increases are limited to a maximum of 2ºC, and ideally to 1.5ºC.2. Make the needs of the most vulnerable, including children, central to climate change adaptation.3. Reduce inequity among children now to promote their future resilience to climate change.4. Listen to and act on children’s perspectives on climate change.5. Provide children and youth with climate change education, awareness raising and training.

Make a Decision (continued) :6. Scale-up proven approaches to address the changing needs of children.7. Align and coordinate work on climate change adaptation, preparedness and disaster risk reduction.8. Put in place measures to protect children who have been displaced, migrate or are refugees as a result of climate change or climate-related impacts.9. Invest in children when implementing national climate plans on mitigation and adaptation.10. Everyone should get involved.

Thank you!

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UNICEFUnless we act now: http://uni.cf/1HrFgdJ

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