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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook:

Improving Economies UnderpinGlobal Chemical Companies'Prospects

Primary Credit Analyst:

Oliver Kroemker, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-160; [email protected]

Secondary Contacts:

Francisco Gutierrez, Mexico City (52) 55-5081-4407; [email protected]

Xavier Jean, Singapore (65) 6239-6346; [email protected]

Seamus Ryan, CFA, Boston (1) 617-530-8109; [email protected]

Table Of Contents

North America: Economic, Industrial, and Manufacturing Conditions

Support Chemical Companies' Performance

EMEA: Companies Should Benefit From Economic Recovery, But No

Strong Upturn Is Likely

Asia-Pacific: Despite Some Softening, Economic Growth Still Underpins

Companies' Ratings

Latin America: Margins Are Still Relatively Weak, But Could Recover

During 2014

WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JUNE 17, 2014 1

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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook:

Improving Economies Underpin Global ChemicalCompanies' Prospects

We consider prospects for most global chemical producers to be stable in 2014, supported by gradually improving

economic growth in most regions. This is despite slower growth in emerging markets. Standard & Poor's economists

forecast GDP growth and improved economic indicators in most regions in 2014 versus last year. This should support

credit quality in the chemicals industry globally, as illustrated by a significant majority of stable outlooks on companies

we rate.

The prevalence of low-cost shale gas in North America is still a driving force for many global chemical companies.

North American petrochemical and fertilizer producers should stay in position to capitalize on their favorable global

cost positions, while producers in other regions seek to respond by shifting production or restructuring. Nevertheless,

lower-than-expected GDP growth in China and overcapacity in certain chemical products and value chains represent

key risks to our expectations for the chemicals industry worldwide in 2014.

Overview

• Improving economic conditions in most regions of the world, including sustained GDP growth of about 7% in

China, should support the credit stability of global chemical companies this year, in our view.

• The availability of low-cost shale gas in North America, a key production input for many chemicals, still

provides a strong competitive advantage to companies based in or operating in this region.

• In Europe, only tepid economic growth and still muted prices for chemical products will keep a lid on the

recovery.

• In Asia, sustained GDP growth throughout the region still underpins ratings on chemical firms, but the sector

would be vulnerable to a slowdown in China's GDP below 6% due to its high operating leverage and excess

capacities.

• For Latin American players, the development of a shale gas industry would improve long-term profitability, in

our view.

North America: Economic, Industrial, and Manufacturing Conditions SupportChemical Companies' Performance

We base our outlook for North American chemical companies on several key economic indicators—including GDP

growth, industrial production, and manufacturing production—that we believe have the greatest influence on the

sector's performance. Although our baseline forecast for U.S. GDP growth has softened in recent months because of a

weak first quarter, we still expect that a stronger second half will support accelerated growth in 2014. Our expectations

for improving industrial and manufacturing production should also support chemical company performance this year.

Standard & Poor's baseline rating assumptions for North American chemical companies in 2014 include the following:


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• Real GDP growth in the U.S. will increase to an estimated 2.5% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015, compared with 1.9% in

2013.

• Real GDP at major trading partners will increase by 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015, compared with 1.3% in 2013.

• Total U.S. industrial production will expand by 3.8% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015, compared with 2.9% in 2013.

• Total U.S. manufacturing production will expand by 3.6% in 2014 and 4.1% in 2015, compared with 2.9% in 2013.

In addition, our outlook for several secondary economic indicators—including housing starts, nonresidential

construction, and light vehicle sales—is positive for 2014. We expect chemical companies with significant exposure in

these areas to perform well.

Profitability is set to improve on rising industrial activity and access to low-cost natural gas

Supported by our baseline economic assumptions, we expect steady revenue and EBITDA growth for chemical

companies in 2014. Several broad-based trends, such as the availability of low-cost natural gas and growth in the

housing and automotive markets, reinforce these expectations. Nevertheless, we do see some specific product markets

that will likely underperform this year.

The availability of low-cost natural gas, a key input for many chemical companies, should lead to favorable

performance for many companies in the petrochemical, downstream, and fertilizer subsectors. More specifically,

low-cost ethylene and ammonia directly benefit these industries. We do not expect the sharp rise in natural gas prices

in early 2014 to hurt the North American petrochemical and downstream sectors, which should continue to benefit

from a favorable global cost position.

Despite slower momentum in housing, we still forecast positive trends in the housing and automotive markets. These

markets represent important customers to many chemical companies, which should benefit from increased demand.

Although our outlook is generally favorable, we believe some segments are likely to underperform. Consumer

electronics remains a relative soft spot and we expect companies with exposure to this market to experience

somewhat weak demand this year. In addition, we anticipate oversupply will continue to hinder growth prospects in

the silicones, epoxy and polyester resins, and nonwovens markets for at least the rest of this year.

Ratings should stay generally stable

We expect credit quality to remain generally stable for the chemical sector, with somewhat favorable industry

conditions leading to a gradual decline in leverage across our rated companies. Nevertheless, we do not anticipate a

large number of rating changes in 2014. Although the percentage of rated companies with stable outlooks has declined

over the past year, it still remains high at almost 85% (see chart 1). The median rating in the sector remains 'BB', but

the number of new issuers rated within the 'B' range continues to push the median much closer to that level (see chart

2).

We have positive outlooks on four companies, while two others have been placed on CreditWatch positive. The

positive outlooks on Rockwood Specialties Group Inc. and Kraton Performance Polymers Inc., as well as the

CreditWatch positive placements on Platform Specialty Products Corp. and Petrologistics LP, reflect potential changes

to the businesses that could have a positive impact on credit quality. The positive outlook on NOVA Chemicals Corp.

reflects the potential benefits of operational improvement projects, and the positive outlook on Ecolab Inc. reflects

potential improvements to the financial profile associated with the integration the 2013 Champion Technologies


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Industry Economic And Ratings Outlook: Improving Economies Underpin Global Chemical Companies' Prospects

acquisition.

We have negative outlooks on seven companies. Three companies, Cabot Corp., Huntsman Corp., and Koppers Inc.

have negative outlooks that reflect risks associated with announced or completed acquisitions. The negative outlooks

on Rentech Nitrogen Partners L.P., Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., and Formosa Plastics Corp. U.S.A. (FPC USA)

reflect the potential for weaker credit measures, in FPC USA's case at the group level. The negative outlook on

Reichhold Industries Inc. reflects our view that the company's financial commitments appear unsustainable.

We have a developing outlook on one company, Vertellus Specialties Inc., which reflects the risks associated with

near-term refinancing requirements.

Chart 1


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Chart 2

EMEA: Companies Should Benefit From Economic Recovery, But No StrongUpturn Is Likely

We expect that chemical companies in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) will benefit from a gradual

recovery in economic conditions in the region this year. Europe is still the destination of close to 50% of sales on

average for the largest chemical companies we rate that are based in this region (see chart 3). However, we do not

expect a sharp recovery in earnings. Declining prices and currency headwinds will somewhat offset positive volume

trends and retained cost savings. What's more, while the global economy continues to recover from its recent slump,

our baseline economic scenario for Europe forecasts only sluggish economic expansion in the eurozone (European

Economic and Monetary Union), with just 1% GDP growth in 2014 (up from -0.4% in 2013). We expect that growth

will be stronger in Germany than in other eurozone countries. Outside the eurozone, the U.K. economy continues to

outperform most continental economies and we expect GDP growth of 2.7% in 2014, up from 1.7% in 2013 (for further

details see "U.K. Consumers Lead The Way, While Deflation Haunts The Eurozone," published April 25, 2014).


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Chart 3

A stable ratings outlook, but financial headroom is limited

Three major trends--challenging economic conditions in Europe in recent years, a step-change in the competitive

landscape especially for petrochemicals producers due to the U.S. shale gas boom, and companies' continued high

investments--have left EMEA chemical corporations with substantially less headroom within the ratings than they had

one to two years ago, in our view. About 73% of issuers have funds from operations (FFO) to debt or debt-to-EBITDA

ratios (both as adjusted by Standard & Poor's) only just reaching, or even below, the level we consider commensurate

for the ratings. They therefore have limited financial headroom in 2014 from a rating perspective. We are nevertheless

cautiously optimistic that credit quality will remain stable over the remainder of 2014, reflecting our expectation that

general operating conditions in the chemical industry in Europe will continue to improve modestly over the coming

quarters. Our anticipation of ratings' stability is illustrated by about 90% of stable outlooks on our portfolio of chemical

companies in Europe. In addition to healthier results we anticipate in 2014, these stable outlooks are further supported

by our view of issuers' comfortable debt maturity profiles and, in most cases, adequate or strong liquidity.

Rating upgrades match downgrades so far in 2014

We've downgraded one company and upgraded one other this year to date. In May 2014, we lowered the ratings on

Germany's LANXESS AG to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB/A-2' following a substantial 47% year-on-year decline in EBITDA

in 2013 and our expectation that the company's key synthetic rubber market will continue suffering from oversupply


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over the coming years. Our outlook on the ratings is stable, factoring in management's action through a modest sized

equity-raising exercise and operational restructuring plans. This should help strengthen LANXESS' credit metrics over

the next two to three years, in our view.

In February this year, we raised the long-term rating on Luxembourg-headquartered chemicals and intermediates'

manufacturer OXEA S.a.r.l., Luxembourg (Oxea) by two notches to 'BB-' following its acquisition by Oman Oil from

private equity sponsor Advent International and our assessment of parental support.

Approximately one-half of EMEA chemical companies we rate are in the investment-grade category (that is, rated

'BBB-' or above), and the vast majority have a stable outlook (see charts 4 and 5).

Chart 4


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Chart 5

Most rated players are experiencing solid volume growth, except in the petrochemicals segment

Based on Europe's slow economic recovery and more solid growth in other regions, we forecast about 3% to 4%

growth in volumes sold in the European chemical sector this year. Chemical producers reported a 3.5% increase in

volumes year on year in first-quarter (Q1) 2014, the strongest rate since Q1 2011 (see chart 6). This represents the

fourth consecutive quarter of positive volume growth. According to data from the European Chemical Industry Council

(CEFIC), capacity utilization reached a strong 81.2% in Q1 2014, the highest level in three years. The strongest

contributors to volume growth were specialty chemicals and basic inorganic chemicals, while petrochemicals continue

to decline and petrochemicals' monthly output remains 18% below its post-crisis level in the first quarter of 2011.

Petrochemicals continue to suffer from higher raw-material and energy prices than other regions and related pressure

from import volumes.


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Chart 6

Chemical prices are still muted

In contrast to volume trends, chemical product prices remain under pressure and we don't expect any price recovery

until end-2014 or in 2015, therefore lagging volume trends by several quarters (see chart 7). Segments under the most

severe pricing pressure as a result of structural oversupply include PVC, caprolactam, and synthetic rubber. In Q1

2014, prices for chemical products declined by about 2% year on year, dragged down by negative growth in

petrochemical prices (-5%). Chemical product pricing, meanwhile, has been negative for the past two years, in spite of

a fairly stable oil price environment. For the full year 2014, we forecast 1%-2% lower prices on average.


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Chart 7

Profitability should improve this year on cost-cutting and higher volumes

In Q1 2014, EMEA chemical producers have sustained their profitability at 2013 levels despite the negative pricing

environment and currency headwinds that many internationally diversified companies reported. We expect margins to

improve somewhat in 2014 on the back of cost-savings programs and improved volumes, but we believe they will

remain well below the peak levels of 2011 (see chart 8). A large majority of management teams among EMEA

chemical issuers that we rate have issued guidance of a modest increase in EBITDA in 2014 compared with last year.


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Chart 8

Companies are increasing capital expenditures, but they are still cautious on M&A

We expect capital expenditures (capex) to be higher in 2014 than in recent years, at 1.4x over depreciation on average.

This is because European producers are pursuing a strategy to geographically diversify from their previously dominant

European asset bases, so as to capture growth opportunities in markets with higher demand growth and/or lower

feedstock and energy prices than at home. Some companies took such investment decisions during the 2011-2012

upturn, which followed almost a decade (2002-2010) in which European chemical producers invested at or below

depreciation. Yet, some European producers, such as Germany-based BASF SE, the world's largest chemical company,

will for the first time make the majority of their investments outside Europe over the next years.

Companies are nevertheless taking a more cautious approach to external growth in the sector. M&A activity among

European chemical firms has so far lagged behind other sectors. We have seen few deals beyond the usual bolt-on

acquisitions. While low organic growth, an improving economic climate, and favorable financing conditions could

prompt a pickup in M&A among chemical companies, we note that rating headroom for many issuers is limited at the

current rating levels. Large, debt-financed acquisitions could therefore lead to rating pressure. We can, however,

foresee an increasing number of private equity sponsors exiting their investments in chemical companies via IPOs, or

companies being sold to strategic buyers, as in Oxea's case.


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Asia-Pacific: Despite Some Softening, Economic Growth Still UnderpinsCompanies' Ratings

Sustained GDP growth throughout the region is still providing a buffer for Asia-Pacific chemical companies, in our

opinion. Our ratings factor in the following baseline economic scenarios for the region (for further details see

"Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook: Risks Abound, Led By China's Financial Sector", published April 28, 2014):

• Real GDP growth of around 5% in 2014 and 2015 for the region as a whole, which is broadly unchanged from the

forecast from November last year.

• A more moderate and sustainable growth trajectory in China of 7.0%-7.4% over 2014-2016.

• GDP growth in Japan of 1.8% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2015, with manageable effects of the increase in consumption

tax.

• Country-specific factors driving economies in the rest of Southeast Asia. Malaysia's domestic demand is easing,

while the Philippines' growth remains strong despite a weaker-than-expected first quarter. Vietnam's growth is still

running below its potential growth rate of about 7%, reflecting weak bank lending, while Thailand's political crisis is

exacerbating the consumption slowdown stemming from household indebtedness.

Given that chemical capacities are outpacing the slowing growth in several countries, especially China, producers are

increasingly looking at export markets, rather than domestic demand, to sell production from their new capacity. Yet,

still-high transportation costs mean that exports should remained geared toward the region and are more dependent

on regional growth rather than global demand.

We believe the chemical sector in China would be among the domestic sectors most affected if the country's GDP

growth falls below 6% in 2014 and 2015 because of the sector's high operating leverage. A decline of this magnitude

would likely materially weaken the domestic supply-and-demand balance across chemical products, and further

compress margins that in some cases are already thin, especially for producers that lack product diversity or

economies of scale. At the same time, the rationalization of supply will likely be slow, as we have observed in other

heavy industries, such as metals and mining, in which companies have lacked the willingness to consolidate or close

capacity, especially for less efficient state-owned companies.

The 12-month rating outlook remains predominantly stable

Our credit outlook for the chemicals sector over the next 12 months is largely stable. Nearly 60% of rated companies

have a stable outlook (see chart 10). Company-specific factors, rather than overall industry conditions, explain the

close to 40% of negative outlooks or CreditWatch negative placements. Those factors include concentration on

products with weak pricing outlooks, aggressive capital spending, or reduced rating buffers. All four companies that

belong to the Formosa Plastics Group are on negative outlook, which accentuates the negative bias.


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Chart 9


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Chart 10

Our base-case assumptions do not assume a major change in the rate of demand growth or in pricing for major refined

or chemical products over the next 12 months. Nevertheless, the stable outlook conceals sometimes significant

differences among chemical and refined products. While we believe pricing for olefins and polyolefins regionally

should remain steady into 2015, we also expect that prices and spreads will stay depressed in the polyester chain and

subdued in refining because of market-specific supply considerations rather than a lack of demand.

Polymers: Mostly stable spreads into 2015, but downside risk to downstream polymers

Our base-case scenario assumes mostly stable product spreads for olefin and polyolefin manufacturers into 2015

compared with spread realizations over the past six months. That means fairly high spread levels for upstream naphtha

crackers, which have seen relatively moderate capacity additions over the past 12 months. Market sentiment has

improved in the region. The ethylene-naphtha spread, at close to U.S. $450 per ton, is at multiyear highs. Participants

seem to have stronger confidence that China's economic growth will be sustained. That said, we believe pricing

visibility remains limited well into 2015. We also see mostly stable downstream polymer spreads, but the risks are

largely on the downside in this segment given the supply overhang and new capacity build-up. We consider

polyethylene-ethylene spreads of between $150 per ton and $175 per ton in the next 12 months to be more reflective

of a mid-cycle level.


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We expect a mostly steady financial performance for polymer-focused manufacturers in the region into 2015. We

expect that gas-based cracker and polymer producers PTT Global Chemical Public Co. Ltd. (PTTGC) and Petronas

Gas Chemical Bhd (unrated) will continue generating spreads for their gas-based polymer operations that we estimate

to be at least twice as large as those of naphtha-based producers. For PTTGC, this should allow the company to partly

offset a substantial decline in paraxylene (PX) spreads. We also expect cash flows of PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical

Tbk., the only naphtha-based petrochemical producers we rate in Indonesia to be steady in 2014. This will, in our view,

partly offset growing leverage and a peak in capital spending in 2015 because of capacity expansion.

Polyester chain: weak spreads will likely continue for the next 12 months

The rapid reversion of PX spreads to mid-cycle levels since the beginning of the year was generally consistent with our

expectations. After several years of high operating rates, tight demand and supply and well-above-average spreads, the

PX market is moving into a substantial surplus. Average PX spreads since the beginning of 2014 have almost halved

compared with the first half of 2013. We see limited upside potential from the current levels for the rest of 2014 and

2015 given the residual large supply coming online in 2014 and 2015.

We expect that purified terephthalic acid (PTA) spreads in the region will remain weak over the next 12 months,

mostly as a consequence of large legacy regional capacity, especially in China. We had anticipated a moderate

improvement in PTA spreads six months ago, but rationalization of market capacity is very slow. We believe this

situation is likely to persist into 2015. Given that PTA spreads are now at a multi-year low, market participants may

consider upside to be more likely than further downside, which could slow further capacity closures in the region.

Modest pricing upside could also reactivate idled capacity. In our view, spreads for other downstream

products--polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and fibers--will also remain subdued. This is because the current pace of

demand growth is unlikely to resolve industry-wide oversupply, especially in China, at any time soon amid slowing

Chinese GDP growth.

The sharp decline in PX spreads has not, in itself, led to any negative rating actions in the region. Large regional PX

manufacturers, including Reliance Industries Ltd., Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corp., Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd., and

PTTGC, generally have a well-diversified product base. That said, our expectation of much weaker PX spreads

contributed to our assumption of a slow recovery in GS Caltex Corp.'s credit metrics, given that the product

contributed close to one-third of revenues in its petrochemicals division in 2013. We also expect substantial inventory

losses for companies that use PX as a feedstock in their operations but that do not produce it. In Asia-Pacific, this

includes Thailand-based chemical producer Indorama Ventures PCL (unrated), one of the largest buyers of PX

globally.

Latin America: Margins Are Still Relatively Weak, But Could Recover During2014

We expect business conditions to remain stable for Latin American chemical and petrochemical companies in 2014, in

spite of continued narrow spreads in products such as PTA, PET, and refrigerants. This view is based on moderate

regional economic growth, amid global soft macroeconomic conditions, and persisting financial market volatility as the

U.S.'s monetary policy normalizes and market uncertainty continues over the economic outlook in China.


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In Latin America, we rate seven chemical companies, including five petrochemical firms, one specialty chemical and

fertilizer company, and one fertilizer producer. The largest entities are Mexichem S.A.B. de C.V., Braskem S.A.,

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A., and Alpek S.A.B. de C.V. and its subsidiary Petrotemex. Among the seven

rated entities, five hold an investment-grade rating, primarily reflecting strong market share positions, geographic

diversification, and competitive cost structures.

All of the companies in the region have a stable outlook, with the exception of Mexico-based fertilizer producer Grupo

Fertinal S.A. de C.V., which is facing a more challenging financial situation. We expect that chemical and

petrochemical product margins will start showing signs of recovery in the region by the second half of 2014, but this

will depend on improving global macroeconomic conditions and oil prices. We believe that players will continue to

seek ways to improve their debt maturity profiles and implement efficiency programs to counterbalance weak margins.

Reforms represent upstream integration opportunities for Mexican players

The development of Mexico's energy reform regarding petrochemicals could present opportunities for some players to

expand their vertical integration because it would open the market for private companies to participate in the

production of downstream chemicals. We nevertheless believe that this would only take effect in the medium term

given long lead times to construct associated production facilities and government-granting processes. However, some

petrochemical players have already made progress in projects related to the energy reform—for example Braskem (the

Etileno XXI project), Mexichem (VCM), and Alpek (cogeneration projects). These ventures aim to deliver vertical

integration and cogeneration projects in ongoing basic and intermediary petrochemical feedstocks that will bring

operating efficiencies and also additional revenues from third parties. Such projects will need time to mature and will

only be fully operational within in about two years.

Development of a shale gas industry would create longer term opportunities

In our opinion, access to cheap natural gas as feedstock will continue benefiting companies in the region, particularly

those with operations in Mexico given the geographic proximity to the U.S., which has large shale gas reserves. Players

such as Mexichem (through its OxyChem project in Texas) and Braskem (through the Etileno XXI project) have taken

steps to access natural gas instead of naphtha as feedstock or to access larger supply sources to enhance their vertical

integration through joint ventures. They aim both to switch their mix to this feedstock or to improve their current

production processes and avoid supply disruptions.

We expect that natural gas prices will stay low given the currently high inventories and exploitation of additional fields

in the U.S. Latin America has the highest technically recoverable shale and oil gas resources in the world, particularly

in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Nevertheless, the development and exploitation of these resources has been slow

given the high costs involved, environmental concerns, and other conventional projects.


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Chart 11


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Chart 12

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subject matter have not been the subject of Rating Committee action and should not be interpreted as a change to, or

affirmation of, a Credit Rating or Rating Outlook.


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