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Round 9.0 ForecastResearch and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast

Results and Methods

By Robert Ruiz, Research Manager and

Pamela Zorich, Planner Coordinator


March 17, 2016

Montgomery County, Round 9.0

• Round 1 – 1976• Round 2 – 1979• Round 3 – 1983• Round 3.5 - 1985 Update• Round 4 – 1987• Round 4.1 – 1991• Round 5 - January 1994• Round 5.1 - May 1994• Round 5.2 – 1995• Round 5.3 – 1996• Round 5.4 – 1997• Round 6a – 1998• Round 6.1 – 1999• Round 6.2 – 2000• Round 6.3 – 2003• Round 6.4 - Never Adopted

• Round 6.4A – 2004• Round 7.0 – 2005• Round 7.0a – 2006• Round 7.1 – 2008• Round 7.2 – 2009• Round 7.2A – 2009• Round 8.0 – 2010• Round 8.0a – 2011• Round 8.1 – 2012• Round 8.2 – 2013• Round 8.3 - 2014• Round 9.0 – 2016

Cooperative Forecast Participation


March 17, 2016


Maryland:• Montgomery County• Bowie• Charles County• College Park• Frederick• Frederick County• Gaithersburg• Greenbelt• Prince George's County• Rockville• Takoma Park

Cooperative Forecast Participation

Virginia:• Alexandria• Arlington County• Fairfax• Fairfax County• Falls Church• Loudoun County• Manassas• Manassas Park• Prince William County

• District of Columbia


March 17, 2016


Cooperative Forecasting Process

Regional

Forecast

Jurisdictional

Small Area

(TAZ)

Reconciliation

Regional Econometric

Model Projections

• Employment

• Population

• Households

Local Forecasts

• Employment

• Population

• Households

Source: MWCOG, “ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH”, March 9, 2016.


March 17, 2016

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

Population and Household

Cooperative Forecasts

Round 9.0


March 17, 2016

Population and Household ForecastsMontgomery County, Round 9.0

300,000

500,000

700,000

900,000

1,100,000

1,300,000

1,500,000

2010* 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Source: MNCPPC, Montgomery County Planning Department, Research & Special Projects Division.

Population

Households

Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.


March 17, 2016

Regional Comparison, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast (MWCOG Draft)


Population 2015 - 2045

67.1

66.3

70.4

147.0

150.8

220.5

246.5

363.5

431.8

672.2

899.7

1,036.7

1,125.4

4.5

1.6

3.7

9.6

21.7

23.6

22.7

51.5

85.7

69.0

97.6

130.7

141.9

315.0

91.4

232.8

281.4

34.4%

11.1%

14.8%

22.6%

32.4%

35.6%

32.2%

35.1%

56.8%

31.3%

39.6%

36.0%

32.9%

46.9%

10.2%

22.5%

25.0%

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

City of Falls Church

City of Manassas Park

City of Fairfax

City of Manassas

City Gaithersburg

City of Rockville

City of Frederick

City of Alexandria

Charles County

Arlington County

Frederick County

Loudoun County

Prince William County

District of Columbia

Prince George's County

Montgomery County

Fairfax County

(Thousands)

2015 Population

Absolute Increase 2015 - 2045



March 17, 2016

Regional Comparison, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast (MWCOG Draft)

Households 2015 - 2045

24.7

26.9

27.3

53.7

70.8

89.5

103.6

121.1

141.0

297.1

314.9

380.2

403.9

0.5

3.0

2.1

2.9

11.7

12.7

11.4

40.9

32.5

46.4

38.2

63.7

62.2

145.2

66.5

113.6

144.2

11.7%

58.8%

24.8%

22.1%

53.2%

50.2%

44.9%

79.9%

47.7%

54.7%

39.0%

60.9%

47.6%

54.4%

21.9%

31.8%

37.2%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600



City of Fairfax

City of Manassas

City Gaithersburg

City of Rockville

City of Frederick

Charles County

City of Alexandria

Frederick County

Arlington County

Loudoun County




Montgomery County

Fairfax County

(Thousands)

2015 Households


Source: MWCOG, “ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH”, March 9, 2016. Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.


March 17, 2016

Population Forecast Methodology

AGE COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL

County Cohort Component Model

Projections 2025-2030

Females

NUMBER FEMALES

AGE FEMALES SURV RATES AGE SURVIVORS MIGRATION POPULATION

INTERVALS (t) IN 2020 2020 INTERVALS (t) 2025 RATES 2025

0-4 34,333 2.35% 35,140

0-4 33,229 0.999089 5-9 33,199 -2.18% 32,474

5-9 32,262 0.999495 10-14 32,246 2.98% 33,207

10-14 34,537 0.998988 15-19 34,502 -6.87% 32,132

15-19 30,956 0.998128 20-24 30,898 -0.69% 30,686

20-24 30,260 0.997476 25-29 30,184 37.48% 41,497

25-29 38,478 0.996775 30-34 38,354 10.93% 42,545

30-34 37,784 0.995631 35-39 37,619 3.43% 38,908

35-39 38,137 0.993624 40-44 37,894 0.15% 37,950

40-44 36,708 0.989902 45-49 36,337 -0.05% 36,319

45-49 37,552 0.984393 50-54 36,966 -1.90% 36,262

50-54 37,749 0.977735 55-59 36,909 -4.00% 35,433

55-59 38,174 0.967934 60-64 36,950 -6.07% 34,706

60-64 34,634 0.951412 65-69 32,951 -5.25% 31,220

65-69 28,820 0.924681 70-74 26,650 -0.70% 26,463

70-74 23,119 0.881485 75-79 20,379 2.95% 20,980

75-79 15,949 0.809356 80-84 12,908 4.10% 13,438

80-84 10,593 0.690046 85+ 12,492 1.41% 12,668

85+ 12,336 0.420138

TOTALS 551,277 572,027

2020 to 2025

Add BIRTHS

Steps in Age Cohort-Component Model:

Age cohorts by sex

Apply survival rates

“Age” survivors by 5 years

Add births

Apply migration rates

Forecasts age by sex for next 5 years

Repeat for 5-year increments until 2045


March 17, 2016

Source: 2000-2014 Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census

Natural Increase, Largest Component of Montgomery’s Population Growth


March 17, 2016

SOURCE: Vital Statistics Admin, MD Dept. of Health & Mental Hygiene

Historical Birth Trends in Montgomery County


March 17, 2016

Changing Mix of Residents More Dramatic than Growth

MONTGOMERY COUNTY POPULATION MIGRATION TRENDS1990-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, 1990-2014


March 17, 2016

Montgomery: Magnet for Foreign Born

Source: 1980-2000 U.S. Census, 2010 & 2014 American Community Survey, 1 year estimate

12%

5%

8%6%

19%

7%

12%

9%

27%

10%

16%

11%

32%

14%

22%

13%

33%

15%

23%

13%

Montgomery County Maryland Washington Region United States

1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

Foreign born percent of population

342,900


March 17, 2016

Changing Mix of Residents More Dramatic than Growth


March 17, 2016

7%

20%19%

18%

24%

11%

7%

19% 19%

14%

28%

14%

6%

19% 19%

15%

24%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<5 5-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65+

% o

f P

op

ula

tio

n

Age Group

2000 2014 2045

Percent of Population by Age Group

Source: U.S. Census, 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey; draft Round 9.0 Forecast .

Baby Boomers Drive Rise in Age 65+

Thumbprint of the Baby Boomers



March 17, 2016

Household Forecast Methodology

HEADSHIP RATES by HOUSEHOLDER AGE 2015-2045

Average Headship Rate

2005-2014

Age

Headship

rate

15 to 24 years 0.068

25 to 34 years 0.405

35 to 44 years 0.507

45 to 54 years 0.557

55 to 64 years 0.567

65 to 74 years 0.581

75 and over 0.644

Households:

Households are calculated by applying a “headship rate” to the household population by age. The “headship rate” is the percent of persons in an age group that are householders.

The household forecast uses average headship rates from 2005 to 2014 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.


March 17, 2016

Employment Forecast


March 17, 2016

Employment Forecasts in Context, Montgomery County

644,789670,404

977,163

715,100

493,500

657,354681,500

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

At-

Pla

ce E

mp

loym

ent

Round 5.2 (1994) Round 6.1 (1999) Round 7.0 (2005)

Round 8.0 (2009) Round 8.4 (2014) Round 9.0 (2016)

A 2010 to 2045 gain of 188,000 jobs or 38% for Round 9.0


March 17, 2016

Employment Forecasts in Context, COG TPB Region

3,927.2

4,137.7

4,453.0

4,754.1

5,047.0

5,290.5

5,561.5

3,001.03,149.9

3,345.9

3,565.8

3,770.93,953.4

4,130.44,285.7

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Tran

spo

rtat

ion

Pla

nn

ing

Bo

ard

Are

a, E

mp

loym

ent

(in

th

ou

san

ds)

Round 8.4 Round 9.0


March 17, 2016

Round 9.0 Employment Forecasts by Jurisdiction


Employment 2015 - 2045

46.4

46.6

50.1

72.6

106.3

106.4

144.6

164.5

209.6

338.6

517.8

654.1

798.3

0.6

6.6

5.8

5.3

20.2

14.9

11.1

23.3

47.1

28.5

113.7

124.4

69.9

63.6

163.7

244.6

247.1

12.5%

55.0%

28.0%

20.7%

43.5%

32.0%

22.2%

32.0%

44.3%

26.8%

78.6%

75.6%

33.3%

18.8%

31.6%

37.4%

31.0%

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200



City of Fairfax

City of Manassas

City Gaithersburg

Charles County

City of Frederick

City of Rockville

City of Alexandria

Frederick County


Loudoun County

Arlington County


Montgomery County

Fairfax County


(Thousands)

2015 Employment



March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 1: Calculate an employment “base” for 2010

• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) at-place employment data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation’s (DLLR) are used for a portion of the “2010” base.

• These jobs are covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI).


March 17, 2016


Visualization of process to attain total employment:



March 17, 2016


• Wage and salary jobs not covered by unemployment insurance:

a) Factor of 1.045 applied to “covered” employment to get total wage and salary jobs (covered + not covered employment).

b) 1.045 factor is unique to Montgomery County and was developed by MWCOG using BLS’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data.

c) This category of workers includes persons employed by religious institutions, for example.

• The Self-Employed:

a) Factor of 1.06 applied to calculate the number of self-employed persons

b) 1.06 factor is unique to Montgomery County and was developed by MWCOG using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files.



March 17, 2016


• The non-civilian military employment :

a) Among sources, includes Department of Defense’s (DOD) “Base Structure Report: A Summary of the Real Property Inventory” reports that tabulates military personnel by base.



March 17, 2016


• The forecast of future wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance (UI) is calculated using shift-share analysis

a) What is shift-share method:

i. The shift-share method assumes that a local employment industry’s growth is affected by its own local industry trends, as well as by that industry’s historical and expected regional or national dynamics.

ii. The shift-share method includes a “shift-term” that “account[s] for [the] differences between local and reference region growth rates that cause an industry’s employment to shift into or out of a region” (Klosterman, “Community Analysis and Planning Techniques”, 1990).

Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI


March 17, 2016


b) What assumptions and inputs were used in the shift-share analysis

i. Key assumption is that in the thirty-five year forecast horizon we will have cyclical booms and busts, but that none of these will be as exceptionally prolonged and as deep as the 2007 to 2009 recession.

ii. Inputs include employment estimates change by industry at the Montgomery County-level and Transportation Planning Board (TPB) regional-level from 1991 to 2000.

i. More recent employment data by industry that included the lead up to, and actual, 2007 to 2009 “great recession” were not used since this recession was assessed to be an anomaly.

ii. Inputs also include TPB regional industry forecasts from IHS Global Insight



March 17, 2016



366,107

464,833

455,343

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

420,000

440,000

460,000

480,000

An

nu

al A

vera

ge W

age

and

Sal

ary

Emp

loym

ent

(UI C

ove

red

)

Payroll Employment (Yearly Avg.)

Recession,4Q2007 to 2Q2009,18 months



Wage and Salary Employment trends are improving:- Avg. Annual Job Growth ’91 to ’96: 4,325 jobs- Avg. Annual Job Growth ’09 to ‘14: 2,408 jobs

Historical growth:- Avg. Annual Job Growth ‘83 to ‘87: 22,600 jobs

Source: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing & Regulation. Tabulated by MNCPPC, Montgomery County Planning Department, Research & Special Projects Division.


March 17, 2016


c) Wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment outputs:



March 17, 2016


c) Wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment outputs:


-43,796

-3,488

5,915

8,395

14,467

50,178

82,153

80,582

49,022

91,927

601,995

-100,000 100,000 300,000 500,000 700,000

Federal Government

Manufacturing

Transp., Trade, & Utilities

Financial Activities

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Educational & Health Services

State & Local Government

Information

Construction, Natural Resources,…

Professional & Business Services

Employment Change by Sector 2015 – 2045,

COG / TPB Planning Area

Employment Change by Sector 2015 – 2045,

Montgomery County

-5,200

14,300

29,600

16,400

1,400

20,400

35,400

33,300

-10,000

400

61,000

-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000

Federal Government

Manufacturing

Trade, Transportation, and…

Financial Activities

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Educational & Health Services

State Government + Local…

Information

Natural Resources and Mining…

Professional and Bus. Services


March 17, 2016


Visualization of process to attain total employment:

Step 3: Calculate Non UI, Self-Employed, and Military for Future Years


March 17, 2016


Step 4: Reconciliation with MWCOG’s Econometric Model

Source: MWCOG Department of Community Planning & Services, “Round 8.3 Cooperative Forecasts: Process and Review” presentation, January 17, 2014.


March 17, 2016


Step 4: Reconciliation with MWCOG’s Econometric Model

728,900

493,500

681,500

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2,010 2,015 2,020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

At-

Pla

ce E

mp

loym

ent

Round 9.0 Draft Round 9.0

16.5% 16.5%16.0% 16.1%

16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shar

e o

f th

e M

WC

OG

Eco

no

met

ric

Mo

del

Draft and submitted forecast Montgomery County’s share of Econometric Model


March 17, 2016

Allocation


March 17, 2016

• Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment are done at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level.

• Planning performs allocations for 321 TAZs

• Rockville and Gaithersburg perform their own allocations

Forecast Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment


March 17, 2016

Key Assumptions and Elements Considered

Forecast Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment

Households

and Population:

Employment:

• Assumptions are made on the percent of housing units that are occupied and vacant.

• Likewise, assumptions are made on the average number of persons per occupied units.

• All new households are allocated to new housing

• Assumptions are made on the percent of office, retail, and industrial space that is occupied and vacant.

• Not all office jobs allocated to new construction. Some jobs also allocated to existing vacant space.

• The self-employed are distributed among residential TAZs


March 17, 2016

Q & A

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