The Missing Metric Economics and the

Counterintuitive Nature of Planning

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The definition of an Expert:

Someone from far away with

slides

The definition of an Expert:

Someone from far away with

Power Point

The new definition of an Expert:

I fail the expert test

Henry Cisneros addressing the Congress for the New Urbanism

I’m a consultant in planning and

strategic marketing

Upper Rock District: Existing Conditions

Upper Rock District: Build out per previous entitlements ($3.5 million)

Upper Rock District: Build out per newly granted entitlements ($84 million)

Rockville, MD: Upper Rock

Rockville, MD: Upper Rock

Rockville, MD: Upper Rock

Rockville, MD: Upper Rock

Commissioned by JBG Companies; Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company

Oceanside, CA

I’ve also worked as a planner around the United States

Oceanside, CA Sarasota, FL

I’ve also worked as a planner around the United States

Oceanside, CA Arlington, VA

I’ve also worked as a planner around the United States

Sarasota, FL

Any given Tuesday… U

Any given Tuesday… U

Any given Tuesday… U

Any given Tuesday… U

Any given Tuesday… U

Any given Tuesday… U

Quality of life vs. development impacts

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Quality of life vs. development impacts

U

Issues related to revenue never came up

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A time bomb under the street

A time bomb under the street

Impact fees only cover capital costs

New Roadway Facilities

University Pkwy & N. University Pkwy & N. Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Creek Boulevard IntersectionCreek Boulevard Intersection

University ParkwayUniversity Parkway

DeSoto RoadDeSoto Road

Hon

ore

Ave

nue

Hon

ore

Ave

nue

Honore Avenue & DeSoto Honore Avenue & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection

II--7575

N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection

N. Cattlemen Road (from University N. Cattlemen Road (from University Pkwy to DeSoto Road)Pkwy to DeSoto Road)

N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto Road to Richardson Road)Road to Richardson Road)

DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue to N. Cattlemen Road)to N. Cattlemen Road)

N. C

attle

men

Roa

dN

. Cat

tlem

en R

oad

Total Total Estimated CostEstimated Cost

$38,050,000$38,050,000Right of Way $5,000,000Right of Way $5,000,000

Construction $33,5000,000Construction $33,5000,000

Another problem with impact fees...

P

New Roadway Facilities

University Pkwy & N. University Pkwy & N. Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Creek Boulevard IntersectionCreek Boulevard Intersection

University ParkwayUniversity Parkway

DeSoto RoadDeSoto Road

Hon

ore

Ave

nue

Hon

ore

Ave

nue

Honore Avenue & DeSoto Honore Avenue & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection

II--7575

N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection

N. Cattlemen Road (from University N. Cattlemen Road (from University Pkwy to DeSoto Road)Pkwy to DeSoto Road)

N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto Road to Richardson Road)Road to Richardson Road)

DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue to N. Cattlemen Road)to N. Cattlemen Road)

N. C

attle

men

Roa

dN

. Cat

tlem

en R

oad

Total Total Estimated CostEstimated Cost

$38,050,000$38,050,000Right of Way $5,000,000Right of Way $5,000,000

Construction $33,5000,000Construction $33,5000,000

Approved Platted Residential Lots

1222

571

104 88

237

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011

# of

App

rove

d Lo

ts

*Data through 11/1/10

So let’s talk about Sarasota County.

Approved Platted Residential Lots

1222

571

104 88

237

00

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011

# of

App

rove

d Lo

ts

*Data through 11/1/10

We didn’t know what was paying the bills

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In 2008 the Sarasota County manager asked staff to look at where our property taxes were coming from…

In 2008 the Sarasota County manager asked staff to look at where our property taxes were coming from…

In 2008 the Sarasota County manager asked staff to look at where our property taxes were coming from…

1923

a 4:1 ratio!

1926

2006

These two malls on 55 acres pay $1,145,028

That’s $350,000 less than…

That’s $350,000 less than… …this one building on 2/3 of an acre

It takes 145 acres of Walmart to equal the revenue earned by 1350 Main Street

It takes 145 acres of Walmart to equal the revenue earned by 1350 Main Street Again, it occupies just 2/3 of an acre

What about Sales Tax?

1350 Main St: $1+ million generated

on .67 acres

1350 Main St: $1+ million generated

on .67 acres

1350 Main St: $1+ million generated

on .67 acres

Sarasota’s downtown today—Mostly 1-2 story buildings

St. Petersburg; the boom improved its

downtown

So what about the cost side of the

equation? P

Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P

Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P

Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P

Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P

Is this a national pattern?

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Now that we understand our tax base today, how might we improve it going forward?

In many regions, there are Smart Growth projects that will do well…

In many regions, there are Smart Growth projects that will do well…

We need a method of regulation that addresses the places that people don’t care

deeply about, and our current fiscal challenges.

Could we mandate a maximum

pay back period? The number of years required to

pay back the municipality’s infrastructure investment

FIQ=Fiscal Impact Quotient

The number of years required to pay back the municipality’s infrastructure investment

FIQ=Fiscal Impact Quotient

The number of years required to pay back the municipality’s infrastructure investment

FIQ=Fiscal Impact Quotient

County A FIQ: 10 years County B FIQ: 5 years County C FIQ: 20 years

It’s a new “metric”

Here’s how it might be used…