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DRAFT EPEE EU HFC Model Update Brussels, April 15 th 2019
DRAFT EPEE EU HFC Model Update
Brussels, April 15th 2019
Agenda
• Background to the new EPEE EU Model
• Overview of Software Features
• Comments on Modelling Assumptions
• Next Steps
2
Background to the new
EPEE EU Model
3
Modelling in 2012 and 2015
• EPEE EU HFC model developed in 2012
– to understand proposals for EU F-Gas Regulation
• model slightly updated in 2015
– to reflect the actual F-Gas Regulation requirements (e.g. bans)
– for use in Gapometer Project
• key outputs from the model
– in 2012: a report summarising key findings of the modelling
– 2015 – 2018: various Gapometer analyses
4
Important Features of 2012 Model
• “bottom-up” stock model
– consumption and emissions calculated for each market sector / sub-sector
– built up from knowing number of exisiting and new systems
• comprehensive set of sectors / sub-sectors
– vital to distinguish between technology options
– model uses >40 sub-sectors
• detailed history and forecast, 1990 to 2050
– age and growth of stock in each sub-sector is recognised
– enables modelling of new equipment, retirements and retrofits
UN Environment Projects
• UN Environment has funded modelling for Article 5 countries
– based on the EPEE 2012 model
• Phase 1: Kuwait and Bahrain (models completed)
• Phase 2: 8 countries, due to be completed mid-2019
– Africa: Senegal, Gabon, Mali
– Central America: Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras
– Bosnia
– Sri Lanka
• this created the opportunity to create much better modelling software
Key Changes Since 2012
• new software available from UN projects
– provides more comprehensive outputs
– robust software: users can have their own copy
• much more “top-down” data available from Commission annual reports
– data for 2011 to 2017 can be analysed
• rapid rate of technology change
– we understand the technical options much better than in 2012
– new refrigerants and new technologies have been introduced since 2012
Overview of Some
Software Features
8
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
New EPEE Model of EU HFC Consumption
• easy to use and robust interface
– readily usable by EPEE members
– multi-lingual capability
• wide variety of output formats
– to explore the data of greatest interest
• comprehensive “scenario analysis”
– to investigate impact of different modelling assumptions
• can compare modelled forecasts to:
– EU phase-down schedule
– Kigali phase-down schedule
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Chart View:
giving access to a wide
range of outputs
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
This chart: compares various HFC
phase-down scenarios
2000 2020 2040
HFC Consumption
in kT CO2
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
For a number of different
Policy Scenarios
and for different
Growth Scenarios
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Independent Growth and Policy Scenarios
• Growth scenarios
– represent different rates of change to the “stock” of equipment
• can reflect economic growth e.g. allowing greater uptake of AC
• can reflect non-HFC policies e.g. decarbonisation: greater use of heat pumps
• Policy Scenarios
– actions to achieve HFC phase-down
– Gapometer “core actions”
Looks a bit strange!
Gas
consumption,
kT CO2,
Mobile AC
Policy: stay on
HFC-134a in a
growing market
Policies: introduce
HFO-1234yf
What is this?
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Select one Policy Scenario
and one Growth Scenario
Then display gases used
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
CFC-12 has very high GWP (10,900)
hence very high peak kT CO2
Where is the HFO-1234yf?
GWP is 4, need to view in tonnes
CFC-12 HFC-134a
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
In tonnes:
• HFO-1234yf is clearly shown
• CFC-12 is less dominant
• Market growth is evident
Note: this is only illustrative – in
reality CFC phase out is earlier than
shown
CFC-12
HFC-134a
HFO-1234yf
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Many ways in which data can be displayed, e.g.:
• “drill down” into one scenario
• then drill down into different parts of the market
Various Display Options e.g.:
• by gas type or individual gas
• by main market sector or market sub-sector
Easy to switch units:
• kT CO2 physical tonnes ODP tonnes
Various Viewing Options:
• Time Series, Single Year, Tables, Custom Views
Split by individual gas contains too much
information when all markets selected
- but is very useful looking at sub-sectors
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
3 selectors allow you to refine data being displayed
• Market Selector – select main sector or sub-sector
• Gas Selector – select gas type or individual gas
• Output Selector – select different outputs
e.g. consumption or emissions
Market selector
Choice of:
• 8 main RACHP Sectors
• Non-RACHP Sectors
• 40 sub-sectors
Many different types of output e.g.
Gas consumption (bulk)
Gas demand (bulk + imports pre-charged)
Gas emissions
Gas in systems (existing bank; new installs)
Number of systems
Output types split into relevant sub-types
e.g. 3 Consumption sub-types:
• Factory manufacture
• On-site filling of new systems
• Top-up of leakage
Consumption and Demand (1)
• Montreal Protocol Consumption: only bulk gas (production + imports – exports)
– used for:
• factory built pre-charged equipment (PCE) made in-country
• new systems filled during installation on-site
• servicing existing systems
• Demand: represents actual gas required for “in-country use”
– demand = consumption + imports of PCE – exports of PCE
• PCE imports are important they become part of the stock of equipment
– leading to consumption of gas in service sector
• cannot model Consumption without also estimating Demand
Consumption and Demand (1)
• EU situation slightly complex
• EU quota 2015 and 2016 only related to Consumption
• from 2017, quota is related to Demand
– but there is little or no credit for exports of PCE
• unless Inward Processing Relief is applied
• so in EU model we assume:
– Demand = Consumption + PCE Imports
Compliance View
• provides comparison of phase-down forecasts with targets
– EU target
– Kigali target
• Compliance View also illustrates how Baseline is estimated
– especially important for Article 5 countries
• Baseline is based on future HFC consumption
HFCs
HCFCs
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
EU
Baseline
EU Phase-down
Steps
Non-Compliant
Scenario
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Compliant
Scenario
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
In theory, final
target slightly
lower than EU(impact of PCE?)
Kigali Profile
for EU
Targets easy in
next 10 years
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Article 5 Group 2
Country
(in French)
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Some Comments on
Modelling Assumptions for
new EU Model
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New Policy Scenarios
• 2012 and Gapometer Scenarios retained for comparison
• 3 new scenarios being developed
• Roadmap New
– based on EPEE members best estimate of changes expected
– using available or near market technologies
• HFC High
– will achieve slower HFC phase-down than Roadmap New
– e.g. later introduction of new gases; higher leak rates
• HFC Low
– will achieve faster HFC phase-down than Roadmap New
– e.g. through use of less proven technologies
Gas Choices
• key policy measure for new equipment
• some markets: fairly clear route to ultra-low GWP (<10) options
– e.g. large chillers: HFO-1234ze; HFO-1233zd; R-290; ammonia; R-514A
• many other markets: reasonable route to lower GWP (120 to 750) options
– some barriers, e.g. codes and standards or technical maturity
– ultra-low GWP options either not available or highly uncertain
• a few markets: way forward to GWP sub-1400 not yet clear
Previous slide:
“Growth is independent of Policy Scenario”
This is generally correct
Except for policies involving “modal change”
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Modal Change
• when switching refrigerant also involves a radical technology change
• e.g. large supermarket:
– large pack system (e.g. switching from R-404A to CO2)
– or modal change to water cooled integrals using HC-290
• these types of alternative make modelling more complex
– need to modify market size in 2 sub-sectors
– need to be concerned about possible impact on energy efficiency
Stockpiles
• creation of stockpiles complicates modelling
• hard to compare Commission annual data with forecasts
• significant stockpile in 2014 – clear from Commission data
• also some stockpiling in 2017 – based on model forecasts
– inherent problem with 3-year steps
• rate of using stockpiled refrigerant is hard to predict
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2007 – 2013: consistent consumption
Average 18,100 tonnes per year Estimated use,
allowing for stockpile
use over 3 years
Stockpile before
quota system
~ 6,000 tonnes
Note: data in EU Model still being finalised
Next Steps
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Next Steps
• Finalise draft model
– early May
• Circulate to EPEE steering group for comment
– May / June
• Update model
• Issue final new model and provide training
– July / August
• Possible work on new energy model
Contact Details
Ray Gluckman Gluckman Consulting
email: [email protected]
Tel: +44 1932 866344
Information Sheets about EU F-Gas Regulation:www.gluckmanconsulting.com/f-gas-information-sheets/
Fact Sheets about low GWP alternatives to HFCs: www.gluckmanconsulting.com/low-gwp-alternatives-to-hfcs/
Fact Sheets about Kigali Amendment: www.gluckmanconsulting.com/kigali-amendment/
